An interesting theory from Peter Brookes in the New York Post (thanks to Nicolei):
December 20, 2004 -- WHATEVER you do, don't dismiss Osama bin Laden's newest audio mes sage. Sure, it's just the latest of 17 cameos by the terrorist thug since 9/11. But it may be his scariest yet.Why? Because Osama's latest appearance shows he's changing tactics, and he's onto something that just might work this time.
Everyone — most of all Osama — knows that his al Qaeda movement is losing steam. Today, major al Qaeda terrorism is confined to Iraq, where Abu Musab al Zarqawi, not bin Laden, holds center stage.
Cowering in a cold, dank cave for the last three years is causing Osama's stock to fall precipitously among the terrorist faithful. His campaign of global death, destruction and despair isn't leading al Qaeda to world domination as he had promised.
In fact, by terrorizing Muslims and Muslim governments, he's actually signing al Qaeda's death warrant. Realizing that he's no longer the king of the terrorist universe, Osama has embarked on a new campaign — a terrorist makeover of sorts.
Now, instead of calling exclusively for the violent overthrow of governments on historically Muslim lands, he's downsized his global ambitions to a chunk of Middle Eastern sand — and tempered his message. Masquerading as a terrorist statesman of sorts, he's pushing for a peaceful revolution (yes, peaceful change) in Saudi Arabia as a parallel path to a violent overthrow.
Osama has decided that world Muslim domination just isn't in the cards for al Qaeda at the moment. But getting a fundamentalist foothold in the holiest Islamic land (anyway he can) just might be the key to overthrowing neighboring Muslim governments.
Think of it as al Qaeda's domino theory. First, Saudi Arabia falls, then Yemen, Oman, the Gulf States and so on.
So why should we be alarmed by this? Because Osama's new strategy, announced on the same day as planned anti-regime protests in Saudi Arabia, smacks of the plot that successfully brought down the Shah of Iran 25 years ago at the hands of Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Exiled for opposing the Shah's reforms in 1963, Khomeini settled in the southern Iraqi Shi'ite holy city of Najaf, where he called for religious rule in Iran.
Under pressure from the Shah, Saddam Hussein expelled Khomeini in '78. Moving to Paris, he called for the Shah's overthrow, communicating through radio broadcasts, written statements and taped sermons that were smuggled into Iran.
Unhappiness with the Shah's repressive policies and Khomeini's mythical stature (supported by local clerics) instigated widespread riots in Iran in late 1978. Reading the handwriting on the wall, the Shah left the country in January 1979 on a "vacation" and never returned.
Without firing a single shot, Khomeini, now a veritable Muslim rock star, returned to Iran, establishing the first Islamic fundamentalist state. The aftermath of Khomeini's "peaceful revolution" was anything but peaceful.
Twenty-five years later, revolutionary Iran stands as: a) the world's most active state sponsor of terrorism; b) a highly repressive regime, and c) a near nuclear weapons state.
Could this happen in Saudi Arabia? Sure.
Read the rest!
I hate to say it catharine but I told you so
He is no more a coward than bush,blair or putin,
he is a leader,so why is he a coward,when he is just doing what all important leaders do,lead from the back.You know, on on on cried the leaders at the back,into the valley of death rode the six hundred.
Personally,I think this is exactly what he intends to do,and another attack would only have a negative effect for his cause.Please do not misunderstand me,but 9/11 was a brilliant move.firstly it cemented the Islamic world together,and drawn america into two wars,which is reinforcing the muslims hate towards the west.The dollar is sinking while the price of oil is way up,and the level of fear has been raised.As for using nukes I do not think he will use them, he wants to obtain then so as to raise the level of fear even higher.
The west does not have to many options,the first option is to get Bin Laden before he takes Saudi,and this is easier said than done.Should he take Saudi,you can see how much power he will have,and how much more difficult it will be to bag the bastard.
The second option is for the west to drop Afganistanand Iraq,and concentrate on taking possesion of the oil fields in the middle east,because this is the prize.If he gets control of Saudia,then the war in Afgan and Iraq are lost,and they will not be won by the West until the oil is secured.
This is not a war on terror
Terror is one of the weapons
This is not a war on Islam
Islam is the agenda of the enemy
Jihad is the call to arms for the enemy
This is a war,like all wars
A war for power,wealth,domination
Who-ever has control of the oil wins,
For the west to achieve total victory they must take control of all the enemies assets,so maybe they should also look at Indonesia.Every-body seems to overlook Indonesia.It is the fifth wealthest nation,and has the largest muslim population.
The Gulf and Indonesia should be taken,before Bin laden gets them,and we should then be finished with this evil thing called Islam
Check out ed,s comment
Perhaps bin Laden's tone has changed because he has designs on becoming the next caliph:
http://www.meforum.org/article/159
http://www.inoohr.org/understandingkahlifa.htm
Translation of bin Laden's most recent communique (part 1):
http://www.trackingterrorism.com/Default.asp?dismode=article&artid=1255&comm=1
If you haven't read Dore Gold's "Hatred's Kingdom", I highly recommend you do so (as does former CIA chief James Woolsley):
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/product-description/0895261359/002-5008104-1573611?%5Fencoding=UTF8&n=283155
I have a question. A what if if you will. What if Bin Laden is training troops in the only American desert we have? We are concentrating so hard on the other side of the world, are we not leaving ourselves fulnerable?
FHC-
AlQaeda has set-up shop in South America, but it isn't operating out of the wildernesses of North America (yet, at least). Here's a couple articles on this:
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/americas/11/07/terror.triborder/
http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.17315/article_detail.asp
Excerpt: "Over the last decade ,Colombia has undeniably become a terrorist proving ground. A Switzerland-sized area under FARC control, known as the Zona Despoja, is believed to be a safe haven for training terrorists and drug traffickers. Colombian government officials have confirmed that the Islamic extremist groups Hamas and Hezbollah have established Colombian offices and are collaborating with FARC. They have already attacked Israeli and American targets in South America. Last year, the Colombian National Police also arrested three members of the Provisional Irish Republican Army said to train FARC members in the use of explosives and "urban terrorism."
Such activities are spreading beyond Colombia into Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, where other cells of Hezbollah, Hamas, El Gamma Iji, Islamic Jihad, and al-Qaeda apparently operate. The groups are busy proselytizing among South America's expatriate Middle Eastern population. South America's wild areas under the control of drug lords provide convenient cover for terrorist money laundering, document forgery, and weapons smuggling.
Ballenger believes that profits from drug sales "are sent directly to the Middle East to support the operation of terrorist organizations, possibly even the planning of terrorist acts. I have no doubt that funds raised in the area have made it to the pockets of al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden."
This is one reason it is so important for the USA to support Alvaro Aribe's initiatives to defeat the FARC in Colombia. As with many anarchic areas of the world, terrorists move into these security vacuums and set-up military and financial operations.