Kenneth R. Timmerman assesses Iran's nuclear capabilities in the Washington Times :
Just how far is Iran from the bomb? The short and honest answer is: No one knows. Not the United States, despite an intelligence community that swallows up $40 billion a year in taxpayer money. Not the Israelis, who fear they will be on the receiving end. And least of all, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is only allowed to see those facilities in Iran that the Iranian government chooses to let it see, and has no mandate to investigative weapons programs.The uncertainties and gray areas are so many that virtually any answer about Iranian nuclear weapons development has supporters within the U.S. intelligence community. Therein lies a grave danger to our national security.
A recently completed National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, leaked to a reporter hostile to the administration before its key policy-makers saw it Tuesday, appears to take issue with statements by President Bush and other administration officials who have warned of a coming nuclear showdown with Iran.
The published account of the NIE is headlined "Iran is judged 10 years from nuclear bomb" and suggests the intelligence community is backing off earlier, much nearer-term estimates. But the NIE doesn't say that, according to a senior intelligence official and others familiar with the highly classified report.
The NIE judged Iran will not be able to produce enough fissile material to make a weapon before "early to mid-next decade," these sources said. "That's virtually identical to earlier timelines" of Iran's nuclear weapons development, they added.
The vagueness of that answer, however, reveals how little insight the U.S. intelligence community has into the inner workings of Iran's Islamic regime. It also shows how skittish the intelligence community has become in the wake of errors made in pre-war intelligence on Iraqi weapons programs.
Rather than look at Iranian capabilities and warn policymakers of their potential security risks to the United States, there seems to be an emphasis now on finding "creative" explanations why those capabilities might be entirely innocent. That is a deadly approach to national security.
from farther along in the article;
"..even the french have seen the light and threaten to take iran to the UN SEC COUNCIL..."
whew! thank God they're going to the UN!
gimme a break
at least Bush got Bolton past the eunuchs on the left. i can't wait for Bolton to limber up and start swinging. i have a visual in my head, Bolton walking down a corridor, reps from around the world suddenly flattening themselves against the wall, not making eye-contact, suddenly consumed with fascination over a bit of lint on their jacket or a potted palm, checking their watch with a "my, where did the time go?" and scuttling, yes scuttling down side halls or turning and walking into walls and closed doors, dropping papers and then banging heads as they bend to retrieve their oil vouchers. the overly-sensitive ambassadors swooning into an aides arms when they think Bolton is looking at THEM,
appointments with Bolton cancelled because an ambassador "just remembered i have a parking ticket to clear up". a uptick in requests that one's office be relocated to a floor other than the top ten.
all jokes aside, bolton is EXACTLY what the US needs in the UN. diplomacy only works when parties come to the table in good faith. when one side sees good faith as a sign or symptom of weakness, diplomacy is doomed and any gains achieved are achieved by the wrong side. when countries sit around dividing up the spoils of the world like Mafia Dons, this is not diplomacy
either, it is organized crime on a national level. when those sent to protect the defenseless prey on them instead, it is time to rip back the curtains and expose the very heart of the organization to the light of day and examine every facet and every record of every action, and NOT by an internal investigation. The UN is a bloated, mutated, bastard-image of the original intended organization.
Calling DR Bolton, calling DR Bolton, E.R. Code Red (East River).
i am not ignoring the possibility that the corruption and cronyism is too entrenched for Mr Bolton to be able to effect any real changes, but at least i feel he's capable of trying and has the ability. imagine how hopeful you'd feel if it was John Kerry getting the appointment. at least if Bolton comes back and says, "Mr. President, it's broken beyond redemption" i would take him at his word and then we could move on to consider leaving the UN and making them leave NYC, knowing it was a lost cause. just look at who sits on the Human Rights Committee and tell me it's fixable.
we could always start a new, next-generation organization, learning from our mistakes. maybe an organization with members added by invitation only. Western civilization based, reflecting western values. if everyone's culture is to be respected, and honored, lets respect and honor our own and the values, traditions, and ideals that it stems from.
Question #1 on the application:
do you believe in the respect of ones culture, cultural values, cultural traditions, cultural origins, and cultural history(s), as advocated in regards to every two-bit nation, declared ethnicity, fabricated "people's history", offensive and oppressive more, and hallucinagenic claim of soveriegnty and its accompanying historic right of ownership?
Question #2
do you believe that the countries regularly referred to as "The West" are granted the same respect or is multiculturalism, ethnic diversity, moral equivalence and political correctness a method of counterbalance to the West, with the aim of diminishing, denigrating, and denying the Wests achievements, accomplishments, and vitally central role to the advancement of mankind throughout history.
ahhhh, why do i bother
If it's true that neither the US nor Israel knows how far advanced Iran's nuclear program is, it must also be true that that they have insufficient intelligence to destroy that program. I sincerely hope that isn't the case, and that reports like this are just a smokescreen.
Timmerman on CNN 8/5
Timmerman on CNN 8/5
http://www.intelligencesummit.org/news/KT080505.php
The NIE judged Iran will not be able to produce enough fissile material to make a weapon before "early to mid-next decade,"
Produce, maybe...what about nukes/materials they may have purchased from some Russian opportunist, or even N Korea?
I don't understand the concern.
Any use of nukes by Iran would be suicidal.
Iran is much smaller than Russia and we kept Russia at by for decades with M.A.D.
If Iran launched one nuke, the retaliation would turn the whole country into green glass. (not a bad idea) and then Israel and the U.S. could proceed to turn into green glass any other Jihadi nation that raised the Sword of Muhammad.
The Mullahs of Iran, and Imam's of Islam, have no problem conning idiots into "martyrdom" operations, but they aren't about to become "marytrs" themselves.
Has anyone seen a prominent cleric, leader or mujahideen giving up their lives for their cause?
I haven't Osama runs and hides, Zawhiri runs and hides, Zarqawi runs and hides and not one of the Jihad preaching muslim clerics will strap on a belt bomb or drive a bomb laden car... they motivate and use the half a brains for that purpose, but never themselves.
The Ayatollahs of Iran will preach Jihad and self sacrifice and motivate millions of half a brains to die in the way of allah, but never themselves, never ever themselves.
I don't think M.A.D. is going to work with Iran. It may be suicide but these people line up for violent suicide. I also wouldn't count on Bolton. He may be a hardass but when confronted with the awe-inspiring stupidity and dhimmitude of the UN he might not get his message or intents through. He probably might commit suicide himself.