Things are heating up for Syria, but on the other hand, they can still count on the short-sightedness of the Russians.
But Lebanon seems to be showing more spine. From AP, with thanks to Sr. Soph:
BEIRUT, Lebanon, AP -Nearly 400 Lebanese soldiers have deployed near the Syrian border after Lebanon demanded a militant Palestinian group hand over members who killed a Lebanese contractor, a security official said Wednesday.The official said dozens of elite commandos supported by tanks are among the deployment, which started moving into place late Tuesday near the remote southeastern village of Helweh, a few miles from the Syrian border.
The pro-Syria Fatah Uprising group has a training base in Helweh and members of the group on Tuesday allegedly shot dead Mohammed Ismail, a civilian contractor working for the Lebanese army, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was unauthorized to speak to the media.
Lebanese authorities are calling on the group to hand over those who killed the contractor, the official said....
Tension has increased along the Lebanese-Syrian border since Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April, ending a 29-year military presence, amid the crisis that followed the Feb. 14 assassination of ex-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Lebanon has alleged in recent weeks that pro-Syrian Palestinian guerrillas have brought weapons into this country with the aim of causing disturbances. The Palestinians have denied the accusations.
The pressure on Syria is likely to intensify Wednesday when a report by the U.N. special envoy on Syria-Lebanon, Terje Roed-Larsen, on disarming Lebanese militias is released.
Debka:
Palestinian group shoots up Syrian-Lebanese border as its involvement in Hariri murder is exposed
October 26, 2005, 8:24 AM (GMT+02:00)
Eventually the Alawite military caste must realize that its greatest enemy is not America or Israel, but the local Muslims itching to take care of them, and not only them, but of entire Alawite villages, easily identifiable from the pictures of Miriam on every house. So far they have tried to win over "real" Muslims by loyally serving as conduits for both Iranian (Shi'a) aid to Hezbollah, and by permitting Sunni Arabs, of many nationalities, to enter Iraq through Syria. But this cannot continue. The Americans, the Lebanese (who have American support) and even France will not permit the mixture as before.
In order to save the lives of the Alawite community, someone will have to replace Assad, and then to do the Americans' bidding on the border with Iraq, and stop allowing the supplies to get through to Hezbollah. And then to concentrate on repressing the "real" Muslims at home. The alternative is to be smashed by the Americans (who may not care at this point what this does inside Syria), humiliated, and this humiliation may embolden the "real" Muslims in Syria. And the Alawites should know what that means -- remember what happened to those 82 Alawite military cadets during that graduation ceremony back in 1980? That could happen to every last Alawite in Syria. The Americans, the Lebanese, the Israelis are hardly capable of that which the local Muslims, given half a chance, would cheerfully do.
Hugh, the Alawite, in particular Bashar Assad is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Mehlis commissions investigation into the death of Hariri clearly lays the blame on the Military, in particular Syrian Intelligence and Army Command.
And as you know,if the Alawites (Assad) is taken out or steps down, the radicals, most likely Shi'a Iranian connected will step in.
The base ideology of the Ba'athist as you know is Pan Arabism, and ideology that transcends nationalities, religions, sects and blood feuds.
It is Pan Arabism, (Arab supremacy) that has kept the minority Alawites, and Kept Saddam, in power.
John Bolton says that Assad is not exempt from the probe as he shouldn't be, but enters a major dilemna.. if Assad is taken out or appears weak and threatened, the radical Islamist in the wings will step in and take over the government. Which all considered might not be a bad thing, provided that Israel and the U.S. have the will AND ability to do the right thing (take them out, from a distance), and I don't think that will and ability exists, especially since the Saudis would not be happy watching hell descend on their Arab brothers.
It gets worse According">http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=91813">According to Arutz Sheva "Ynet news service quoted a report in Jane’s Defense Weekly that Iran is helping Syria develop technology to produce chemical weapons. The report said the two nations signed an agreement several months ago to cooperate on weapons development."
I get shudders,and don't see any way out, except that the Arabs do something really stupid, which would then justify a massive and decisive response from Israel.
funny thing about Arab loyalties and enemities and how they align on ethnic and sectarian lines... ...is just how much they bitch about being oppressed by Jews,when they treat each other with infinitely greater brutality than any non-Arab Muslim would.