Jihad Watch Board Vice President Hugh Fitzgerald predicts that Turkey will not make it into the E.U., and recommends that efforts be made to keep this rejection from strengthening Erdogan's Sharia aspirations:
Now that the Soviet Union does not constitute a threat, and now that Erdogan is hellbent on dismembering Kemalism (using the very application to the EU as justification, and excuse, for depriving the army of some of its powers), Turkey can be seen more clearly.Kemalism turns out not a permanent feature, but requires permanent support by the vigilant, both in and out of Turkey. Unfortunately, that stratum of Turkish society -- possibly 1/4 to 1/2 of the population -- that has benefited from the past 80 years of Kemalism seems to take its freedoms for granted. It needs to be reminded that, but for Mustafa Kemal, the Islamic Republic of Iran, or Iraq, or Syria, or Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, or Algeria, are the likely models for what Turkey could have been, and may yet be. The failure of some scholars of Turkey in the West, much lionized in Turkey, to emphasize both the benefits and the fragility of Kemalism, has not helped Turkish secularists. Instead of soberly recognizing the alternative, these too-complacent observers of "modern Turkey" have minimized what Kemalism achieved and underestimated also what the real situation was, for example, of non-Muslims in Ottoman Turkey. And their refusal to call the Jihad against the Armenians a "genocide" did not do Turkey any favors, even if it helped them retain old friends.
Turkey will not be admitted to the E.U. It will not be admitted because, at this point, given the behavior mainly of Arab Muslims (for does anyone doubt that it was the Arab influence that caused some Chechens to embrace not only the idea of Jihad, but all of the current methods being used to further it), Europeans have lost their stomach for parroting phrases about the religion of "peace" and "tolerance." They do not want to admit a country of 70 million Muslims, who would then move freely about Europe. They do not want Turkey admitted because it will be an easy conduit for non-Turkish Muslims to enter Europe, posing as Turks. They do not want Turkey admitted because many of the new member states of the EU will join Greece in opposition. In Bulgaria, if not elsewhere, the Bulgarian Massacres, and centuries of Ottoman rule, are remembered. And in Rumania. And in Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and so on.
Now it is up to the clear-sighted in the Western world, and the most clear-sighted secularists within Turkey as well, to prepare adequately for this rejection. This rejection will wound Turksih secularists. That is too bad. Something more important than their desires needs to be taken into account -- the needs of the Infidel lands and peoples. From the viewpoint of Infidels in Europe, such rejection is essential. For the argument that only by being admitted to the European Union can Turkey retain its "secular" cast, and if it is kept out it will promptly turn to Saudi Arabia, is hollow blackmail. Turkey needs Western tourists, it needs Western markets, it needs Western military aid. It has been pushing its luck with the United States. Those who make policy are beginning to realize that "Kemalism" is not a given, and therefore Turkey, as an ally, is not a given -- on either side.What would such a preparation consist of? It would consist of an effort, starting now, to indicate that the Turks, in looking for those to blame, should blame the Arabs and other Muslims who have "blackened the reputation of all Muslims." Turks of the Kemalist school should even now start to worry aloud, in print and on television, about how the behavior of Muslims has led to second thoughts in Europe -- and why shouldn't it? In other words, the explanation for the rejection should put the blame squarely on those who have acted in the name of, and according to the tenets of, Islam.
The rejection should be used to further ends quite different from those that the party of Erdogan has in mind. If Turkey were to be admitted to the E.U., or if the process were in place that seemed to be leading to such admission, the forces pushing Islam within Turkey would use that to strengthen the anti-Kemalist forces in Turkey. Erdogan, for example, has cleverly used the "requirements" imposed by the E.U. to weaken the army's hold, and the army, everyone understands, is the final guarantor of Kemalism. Instead, the E.U. should use every conceivable condition, crafted carefully, to weaken Islam in Turkey further, and to encourage those secularists, who may make up one-quarter of the Turkish population, to rededicate themselves to secularism -- aware that they did not over the past half century do enough to extend Kemalism and their own numbers.
In this respect, they are akin to those Iranian leftists who misperceived the permanent threat and power of Islam, the ones who thought they could remove the Shah and then deal with Khomeini afterwards. They were wrong. They learned too late that there is no "dealing with Khomeini" or anyone else who can manipulate the power of Islam in a Muslim state; they would have done better to save the Shah's regime and to make all efforts to have reformed it from within. Instead, they have had 25 years of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Surely those Turks who are now Western in outlook, even if they continue to call themselves "Muslim," realize that Erdogan is up to something, and that something is obvious, and that something needs to be opposed through the presentation of coherent argument.
Above all, any joining in his campaign to "blame the Christian West" for not permitting Turkey into the E.U. should be opposed. Blame Bin Laden, blame 9/11, Madrid, Beslan, blame the maghrebins who rioted in France, blame a thousand other attacks and ten thousand would-be attacks all over the world, blame the behavior of the Finsbury Mosque imam, blame the Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, blame the content of the khutbas in Riyadh, Jiddah, and elsewhere that are now known throughout the Western world, blame the actual content of Qur'an and Hadith and Sira -- but whatever is done, make sure that secularism in Turkey does not suffer as Erdogan intends for it to suffer. In other words, make sure the blame falls squarely on Muslims who have been "too Muslim." In other words, blame Islam.
Hugh: I don't think Turkey will be admitted to the EU, but its membership application could be used to destabilize the entire EU. The European Union needs to go. I want to get rid of it.
Fjordman is right. The EU itself should be scrubbed. The secularist dream in Turkey won't hold regardless of what Erdogan does.
The inevitable conclusion one keeps coming to is that secularism is not the answer to Islam.
I have a question. Is there any way the EU can strongarm Turkey's membership into the EU? Even if it isn't a full-membership, is there any way the EUrocrats can force Turkey on to a mostly hostile Europe?
Hugh:
Ihope you fare better with this prediction than Giaour/Nariz did with his prediction as to John Paul II's successor.
Igor: Since when did politicos (and the beaurocrats who advise them) who are only marginally accountable to the "electorate" ever give a damn about what the people they "represent" think?
On Topic,
Since Ataturk's day, the Turkish military has assumed the role of guardian of the secular dream. It has seized political power in the past to maintain the secular vision. It's not clear to me that a country that is under the constant threat of military intervention can truly be called a democracy.
Off Topic,
Fjordman,
You have a terrific blog. I haven't missed a day of it since I first found it about a year ago. I'll be truly sorry to see it go. I hope you will at least continue posting at JW/DW. I always enjoy reading what you have to say. Best of luck in the future
igor wrote:
"is there any way the EUrocrats can force Turkey on to a mostly hostile Europe?"
Does the pope shit in the woods?
Of course the eurocrats can, that's what they DO, and have been doing for some 50 years.
As much as I would like Hugh to be right, I have no reason to believe that he is.
The EU has got to go, it's in essence a morally spineless, hypocritical, sanctimonious, anti-American, anti-Israel entity, and isn't up to any good.
"... there is no "dealing with Khomeini" or anyone else who can manipulate the power of Islam in a Muslim state."
-- posted by Hugh
A perfect summation of the awesome power Islam has to control the group collective through situations, through ideas, through space, and through time.
Has any organization ever been so successful? We're looking at a 1,390 year run of success, and a large % gain of the world's land mass.
PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH PBUH
"Is there any way the EU can strongarm Turkey's membership into the EU?"
-- posted by igor
The EU has attained the form of olympian council that of which I'm sure Marx dreamed.
If the EU ruling elite takes a hit on Turkey, there could be a (positive) chain reaction.
Were that to happen, would the elite controlling so much in America be at all weakened? For example, anybody heard anything about Norman, OK lately? (Read: MSM.)
Turkey will be welcomed into the EU sure as eggs is eggs. We will be strongarmed into it by the politicians in our European 'democracies'. It was the EU itself that demanded the Army be divested of power, playing right into the hands of Erdogan. He must be laughing all the way to the mosque.
NO,NO, NOT TURKEY! THIS BIRD IS SUFFERING FROM A
VIRULENT AND DEADLY STRAIN OF FLU' CALLED - ISLAM.
Won't happen, my Hearties. As Global Jihad cranks up so does resistance to European suicide.
Blair & his henchman Straw[aptly named] on the way out are with George Bush only enthusiastic backers of Turkey. As George has 'a lot on his plate' and will have a lot more to contend with in World War 3, he ain't going to bother much about 'a bird in the bush'. It is likely a large
population of angry Kurds will 'shoot the old bird' and divide the corpse between them .Hmn,wonder if it is too late to put in a claim for Constantinople...
divide it's body between them.
What about oyster stuffing with gravy?
I hope Hugh has right. I want to it.
If-Turkey-isn't-let-in-the-EU,-the-population-may-radicalize is one of the most often repeated themes of this debate.
The simple answer is to ask, what's to stop Turkey from radicalizing *after* they join?
If the strictures of Kemalism weren't sufficient to keep Turkey secular, what hope has the touchy-feely multiculturalism of the EU?
Hugh, I still want the Turks to fess up for what happened to the Armenians. You still hear very little about this . . . as if it never happened. I'd love our state department or the Euro's start ask awkward question such as "can we please get a full accounting of the mass genocide of The Armenians" Look, the Germans came to terms with their guilt(for the overwhelming majority), as have the Japanese(now largely pacifists), how bout 'the young Turks.' On my many trips to Israel, I've met several young Germans who actually live on a Kibbutz as an option of getting out of the military(some may do it because they want to). There were tremendous riots in the nascent Israeli state when the issue of reperations came up vis-a-vis The Germans . . . with BenGurian in favor of accepting and Begin's opposition opposed. I'm told that WWII service is still a taboo subject of discussion among older Germans or Japanese. My Father if of a generation who will not deboard an airplane in Germany. While the overwhelming majority feel that the sins of the father(or grandfather)are not the responsibility of the son. What's my point in this long trip down the 20nth century lane? Where is all the 'sturm and durm' amongst the Turks? Except for a brave isolated journalist or two . . . not a freaken word. Not a bit of self examination. I'd like to see this can of worms opened and forced down the Turks throats in a public manner. Perhaps some leading Armenian Physicians(not to be bigoted, but the ones that I know are all brilliant physicians), or lawyers or public figures, should be invited the the white house and the Euro parliment for their day in court. Forgetting the Turks for a moment, it seems to me that this chapter in the 20nth centuries little shop of horrors has been woefully neglected.
Hugh:
I concur.
TH
Orhan Pamuk, Turkish author of "Snow", "My Name is Red", "The White Castle", and "The Black Book" among others, is scheduled to go on trial on December 15th or 16th of this year for "denigrating the Turkish identity" for remarks made in a Swiss publication. His remarks were to the effect of "30,000 dead Kurds, 1,000,000 dead Armenians, and nobody will talk about it". He faces 3 years.
Ah, secular Islam.
bohemond:
I'm not sure Halal prohibits the consumption of bivalves. I know Muslims can eat crustacea, having asked an observant one precisely that question. To be on the safe side, stuff your Turkey with sage and pork sausage dressing.
If the British government has its way, Turkey will surely be admitted. But the British government is naïve when it comes to Turkey and its ambitions. And, come to think of it, it is naïve when it comes to Muslims in general and their ambitions, too.
I hope you're right about Turkey not being admitted; but I fear that the will to keep Turkey out of Europe just isn't strong enough. At least not yet.
Of course, things might well change in the coming months and years.
Some parts of Turkey, Thrace, Smirna, Iznik (Nicea) and Constantinople ought to be in the EU right now... as part of Greece!
Ms Waterdragon, thanks for letting me know that I own you.
You really have a hair in the arse.. I'm flattered that you can remember things that I say, when in truth I can't remember one thing that you ever say..
You just aren't that important to me, but obviously I am important to you... telling to say the least.
from post above: "telling to say the least." Nariz -- I couldn't think of a more perfect way to characterize your posts and all you've been telling us! Thank you!