Fitzgerald: Emile Nakhleh: One worries, and one wonders

"...the CIA program's former director, Emile Nakhleh, played down the problem and estimated only two to three percent of the world's 1.4 billion Muslims were politically active."

"'Political Islam is not a threat,' Nakhleh, who retired from the CIA in June, said in an interview posted on the web site of Harper's magazine. 'The threat is if the people become disenchanted with the political process and democracy, and opt for violence.'" -- from this article

There is a good deal to note in the paragraphs above.

Let's stat with that figure of "1.4 billion Muslims" given with such suave assurance by Emile Nakhleh, the "CIA program's former director," and left unchallenged, or even uncommented on, by the reporter for Reuters. By now we are all familiar with the way in which Muslim spokesmen constantly exaggerate the figures for Muslims; we have all seen how, in the last few years, the figures suddenly have pushed up, in increments of 100 million -- 1 billion, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, and even, the other day, 1.6 billion. Any figure given that is over 1.2 billion (which, I think, is also exaggerated, and have written about here) is part of that campaign, part of the same campaign designed to scare non-Muslims, or overawe them, with the theme of "Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion."

Yet how many people, reading these remarks by Emile Nakhleh, "retired since June" from the C.I.A., would even stop to note that "1.4 billion" figure that is just tossed off?

And then there is the estimate, by Emile Nakhleh, that of these "1.4 billion" Muslims, only "two to three percent" are "politically active." What does that mean? What could it conceivably mean when in Islam there is no division between politics and religion? Is "politically active" a term for those who are engaged directly in terrorist acts? Is it a term meaning those who engage directly in terrorist acts and those who support them with money, with guns, with ardent approval? Is it a term that means those who actively take an interest in terrorism and also running for Town Meeting in a New England village? What does it mean? It means nothing. It is simply one more bit of nonsense and blague. Or could he mean, rather, that it his unsupported view, very few Muslims wish to become suicide bombers -- even if very many Muslims proudly named their sons Osama after the attack of 9/11/2001, and very many Muslims, in the Muslim-ruled countries and in the Lands of the Infidels, have expressed their approval of Osama Bin Laden, of Hizballah, and of other terrorists and terrorist groups?

Unless we know what Emile Nakhleh, "the CIA program's former director," means by that strange phrase "political Islam," we cannot really examine that "two to three percent figure" he also provides. But we have reason to think all he is doing is engaging in an effort at ludicrously minimizing the problem posed by the theologico-politico-geopolitical system of Islam, and that can only be in order to allay fears, to keep the Infidels unalarmed, as unconcerned, even as somnolent, as possible.

In Western Europe for decades, those who ruled, and whose duty it was to both instruct and protect others from threats as early as possible in their detection, failed to instruct and protect enough early on about Nazism, and about Communism, and about energy policies and problems, and about AIDS, and Mad Cow Disease, and possibly irreversible environmental changes. They also failed to learn themselves, and then to instruct others, in what Islam is all about, and what Muslim migrants would necessarily be carrying with them in their mental baggage, and why what they carried would mean, necessarily, disaster for the countries of the Bilad al-kufr to which those Muslim migrants came. For who can deny at this point, even if there are disagreements over what is now to be done, that the large-scale presence of Muslims in the countries of Western Europe has lead to a situation, for the indigenous Infidels and even for other, non-Muslim, migrants to those same lands (Hindus, Buddhists, Caribbean and African Christians, Chinese), of greater unpleasantness, expense, and physical insecurity than would otherwise be the case?

Finally, Nakhleh asserts, in a tone of remarkable self-assurance, that "[p]olitical Islam is not a threat. The threat is if the people become disenchanted with the political process and democracy, and opt for violence.'"

By "people" he means "Muslim" people. And he is telling us that not only is the teeniest tiniest possible percentage -- "two to three percent" -- of the world's Muslims (who, by the way, are now up to "1.4 billion") -- "politically active" but that also there is trouble only when "people" (that is, Muslims) become "disenchanted with the political process and democracy, and opt for violence."

Now I'm confused. Now I need Emile Nakhleh to help me out. Are the "two to three percent" of the world's Muslims who are "politically active" the ones who are not "disenchanted with the political process and democracy"? Are they the ones we don't have to worry about because they are engaged in political activities, and therefore must not yet be "disenchanted with the political process and democracy" and are not opting "for violence," as Emile Nakhleh demurely describes terrorist groups and suicide-bombers? Or are they the ones who, being the only “politically active” ones out of those "1.4 billion Muslims," therefore the very ones who soon become "disenchanted with the political process and democracy, and opt for violence"?

If it is the latter case, then one must ask why 97-98% of the world's "1.4 billion Muslims" manage to avoid being "politically active," and instead are politically passive or inert? One wonders what would be the reasons for that. One wonders if we Infidels should indeed wish that those 97-98 percent of the Muslims who are now, according to Emile Nakhleh, not “politically active” to become active. For can this lead to anything other than many more of them then becoming “disenchanted with the political process and democracy” and then opting “for violence”? (How demure that choice of verb, incidentally -- “opt for violence.” I “opt for violence,” you “opt for violence,” we all “opt for violence.”)

Societies suffused with Islam are suffused with a belief-system that encourages despotism, not least because Islam locates the source of political legitimacy not in the will of those ruled -- the political theory that undergirds the advanced Western democracies -- but rather in the degree to which any government and any rulers adhere to the expressed will of Allah and of his messenger, as located by clerics and interpreters long ago in Qur’an and hadith, a will to be found in the Holy Law of Islam, or Shari’a. And since, further, the belief-system of Islam is a collectivist system, ignores the rights of the individual, and sees the individual Muslim as owing his entire allegiance to that belief-system and to the collective of fellow Believers, the Umma al-Islamiyya, it is difficult for Muslims to conceive of recognizing, much less making the center of their polities, the rights of individuals -- rights such as freedom of speech and free exercise of religion, including the right to abandon a religion. That is why no Muslim country adheres to the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (though the Shah of Iran signed the document), and why instead a “Muslim version” that completely vitiates the entire meaning and sense of the original was created and presented to the world as an acceptable alternative, when it at every point undermined the letter and spirit of that original.

And if what Emile Nakhleh, who retired from the C.I.A. last June as head of its “program” dealing with “political Islam,” means (oh, what a tangled web we weave, Mr. Nakhleh, and Miss Reuters, when ‘ere we practice to deceive) is that the 97-98 percent of Muslims who are not “politically active” should become so, and we Infidels have a duty to somehow prevent them from becoming “disenchanted” and thus becoming “politically active” in another bombs-and-explosives sort of way, he is therefore essentially saying that it is up to us, the Infidels, to bend our efforts to encouraging democracy in Muslim societies. And he wants us to do this despite the fact that everything necessary to democracy beyond mere head-counting at the purple-thumbed polls, including the legitimacy of governments arising from a social contract theory and the necessity of post-electoral compromise between political rivals (a spirit of compromise completely unknown in Islam, and the results of which we see in Iraq today), as well as the enshrinement of individual rights, is not part of Islam, is inimical to Islam. Yet we are not permitted to discuss this, to worry about it, to wonder how Islamic societies can be brought a kind of democracy that means anything at all. We are not permitted to wonder how they can make democracy into more than what it has meant in the farcical elections in Egypt (where the Ikhwan gained seats), in the “Palestinian” “Authority” (where Hamas won power), in Jordan and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and anywhere that the tiniest, phoniest, and for-western-consumption-only steps are taken to supposedly begin that process of “democratization.” Everywhere that process has led to an increase in the power of the less corrupt, but much more threatening, true Believers -- less tainted by corruption than the more worldly thieving-ruling families, for they would be Believers purs et durs.

Emile Nakhleh’s two paragraphs of nonsense deserve to have some sense imposed on them. We’ve tried above. We’ve really tried.

And Emile Nakhleh himself deserves attention. Is he one more of those C.I.A retirees who, like Raymond Close, “retired” early in order to go into business – perhaps something in the public-relations line – with some of those he was supposed to worry about? Is he now a “lecturer” by any chance, on “political Islam,” a writer of Op-Ed pronouncements, someone who might be supplementing his government pension with the kind of remarks that are reuterized above? Or is he simply one more example of the unintelligent “experts” in the Central Intelligence Agency, of whom we have had a troubling sampling – including schoolboyish Scheuer – over the past few years, each one more naïve and confused than the next?

One worries: these are the ones we find out about, these are the ones whose intelligence and understanding we can judge because they have retired from the C.I.A., and are now speaking publicly. But what about those who haven’t retired, but whose capacity for comprehension, or whose loyalties, are similar to those of Emile Nakhleh, or Raymond Close, or others?

One worries, and one wonders.

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19 Comments

If 97% of Muslims are not politically active that means these are the moderate ones, right? If that's the case then why don't they take the 3% that makes them all look bad and beat some sense into them? With such an overwhelming majority of moderates a reformation of Islam should be somewhat easy,right? Or is it that a reformation is utterly impossible because Islam's ideas have been bankrupt from day one (like the USSR)?


"The threat is if the people become disenchanted with the political process and democracy, and opt for violence."

I think Emile Nakhleh was referring to the itsy-bitsy, teenie-weenie fraction of the disenchanted tiny minority of the extreme two or three percent of Muslims. You know, the Bin Ladenists -- the ones who fly planes into the World Trade Center for political reasons.

"Political Islam is not a threat"

If the CIA paid this bureaucrat more than 2¢, they wasted taxpayer money.

For the sake of argument, let’s take their figures at face value, and use the most conservative estimates. 1.4 billion * 2% = 28 million Muslims are politically active. Suppose 1% of those are terrorists: then they number 280,000 Muslims!!

Isn't "Nakhleh" an Arabic name? What is an Arab doing heading a "program" in the CIA (even if he is an "islamochristian", as Hugh has termed it)?

someone who might be supplementing his government pension with the kind of remarks that are reuterized above?

"Roto-Reuter -- that's the name"

could someone please give the the places in the koran that specify to convert or kill?
thanks

I hate when people try to pull the wool over my eyes. They must think I have no brain. Forget the fact that I read, their actions tell me much more than their words.

sado1,

There are many Islamic quotes here :

http://www.prophetofdoom.net/quotes.aspx?g=405&i=4504


Click on he category list on the right.

This is a part of the reason that there were, and remain, so many problems with the CIA. And to think of all the Leftist conspiracy theorists worldwide who think that the CIA is behind every outrage perpetrated on mankind, when it can't even identify who America's enemies are.

Something that is neither Central, nor Intelligent, nor an Agency.

I have a question, I'm hesitant to ask, because I'm quite sure it is not relevant to the discussion or to Emile Nakleh's positions on Islam, but does anyone know his religious persuasion? Again, I'm not saying that that would in any way influence his writings. And even if he was, for example, Muslim, that would not negate his supposition that there are 1.4 billion Muslims in the world, and only 2-3% are "politically active", whatever that euphemism refers to. Hugh has negated that argument above, with reference strictly to the facts.

I'm just curious, that's all.

we have all seen how, in the last few years, the figures suddenly have pushed up, in increments of 100 million -- 1 billion, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, and even, the other day, 1.6 billion. Any figure given that is over 1.2 billion (which, I think, is also exaggerated, and have written about here)
Hugh

Did you ever get down to what the actual number is, and how many of them are in fact Athiests/closet Apostates? Aslo, do you have a top-down or a bottoms-up breakdown of these numbers?

I have some here - let me know if there are any you think should be edited. It might be worth focusing on the top 10 countries, since changes you make to the Muslim population in, say, Kuwait, won't make much of a dent in their numbers.

Country Total Percentage Muslims
Indonesia 217.6 87% 189.3
Pakistan 152.1 98% 149.0
India 1079.7 12% 132.8
Bangladesh 140.5 83% 116.6
Nigeria 139.8 50% 69.9
Turkey 71.7 95% 68.1
Iran 66.9 98% 65.6
Egypt 68.7 94% 64.6
Algeria 32.4 100% 32.4
Morocco 30.6 100% 30.6
Afghanistan 30.0 99% 29.7
China 1296.5 2% 25.9
Iraq 25.3 100% 25.3
Saudi Arabia 23.2 100% 23.2
Uzbekistan 25.9 88% 22.8
Europe 0.0 100% 20.0
Yemen 19.8 100% 19.8
Sudan 34.4 50% 17.2
Syria 17.8 90% 16.0
Malaysia 25.2 51% 12.9
Mali 11.9 90% 10.7
Somalia 9.9 100% 9.9
Tunisia 10.0 98% 9.8
Niger 12.1 80% 9.7
Senegal 10.5 92% 9.6
Azerbaijan 8.3 94% 7.8
Russia 142.8 5% 7.1
Kazakhstan 15.0 47% 7.0
Guinea 8.1 85% 6.9
Ivory coast 17.1 40% 6.9
Burkina-Faso(thenuppervolta) 12.4 50% 6.2
Palestine 6.0 100% 6.0
Libya 5.7 97% 5.5
Tajikistan 6.4 85% 5.5
Jordan 5.4 94% 5.1
Chad 8.8 55% 4.9
Eritrea 4.5 100% 4.5
Turkmenistan 4.9 89% 4.4
United Arab Emirates 4.3 96% 4.1
Kyrghyz 5.1 75% 3.8
Cameroon 16.4 20% 3.3
Sierra Leone 5.4 60% 3.3
Uganda 25.9 12% 3.1
United States 293.0 1% 2.9
Mauritania 2.9 100% 2.9
Lebanon 4.6 60% 2.7
Albania 3.2 70% 2.2
Oman 2.7 75% 2.0
Mozambique 19.1 10% 1.9
Kuwait 2.5 75% 1.8
Benin 6.9 20% 1.4
Gambia 1.4 90% 1.3
Togo 5.0 15% 0.7
Bahrain 0.7 100% 0.7
Guinea-Bissau 1.5 45% 0.7
Djibouti 0.7 94% 0.7
Qatar 0.6 95% 0.6
Comoros 0.6 98% 0.6
Maldives 0.3 100% 0.3
Brunei-Dar us Salam 0.4 67% 0.2
Guyana 0.8 15% 0.1
Suriname 0.4 20% 0.1
Gabon 1.4 1% 0.0
Equitorial Guinea 0.5 0% 0.0
Total 1301

sado1

I think it is convert or be killed.

sado1

I do not think it is convert and kill, it is more like covert or be killed.


"resisting Islam: punished by death, crucifixion, or the cutting off of the hands and feet. Surah 5:36."

or

"In order that Allah may separate the pure from the impure, put all the impure ones [all non-Muslims] one on top of another in a heap and cast them into hell. They will have been the ones to have lost." (Koran, 8:37)

I relate "cast them into hell" as kill them

26 million Muslims in China? Whoa! That's a hell of a lot more than I ever thought. At least they're somewhat well behaved compared to their brethren elsewhere. Must be the fear of what the government will do to them if they step out of line. I guess communism has some redeeming features after all.

Is Nakleh really muslim? His name sounds Lebanese-Christian to me.

#Infidel Pride

I think the Palestinian number is definitely too high. See for example “Voodoo Demographics” by Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid and Michael L. Wise. Azure 25 (2006), 61-78.

muslims do kill those who refuse to convert:

FAITH UNDER FIRE
Sudan jihad forces Islam
on Christians
Women refusing to convert gang-raped, mutilated, says relief worker

Posted: March 4, 2002
1:00 a.m. Eastern


By Art Moore
© 2002 WorldNetDaily.com

Sudan's militant Muslim regime is slaughtering Christians who refuse to convert to Islam, according to the head of an aid group who recently returned from the African nation

Islamsforlosers

26m is a drop in the bucket in a country of 1.3b - contrast that to 133m in India. The Chinese keep them on a leash, and have populated Xinxiang province with Han Chinese to dilute the Islamic populace.

sh

You may be right, coming to think of it - this is almost Israel's population.

Emile Nakhleh is a blooming idiot (like Dubya, Condi etc...)!

This pathetic CIA program's former director does not even start to understand the meaning of 'Umma Al-Islamia', much less, deceptions rooted in Al-Taquiyya, Da'wa, Dar-Al-Islam, Dar-Al-Harb... CIA now looks more like Centeral 'Ignorance' Agency, which, like Dubya and Condi, is playing with American lives.