The claim that Iran is 5 years or more from having its own nuclear bomb seems a little shakier. August 1939 Alert from the New York Times, aka the New Duranty Times:
VIENNA, Aug. 31 - The global nuclear monitoring agency deepened suspicions on Thursday about Iran’s nuclear program, reporting that inspectors had discovered new traces of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian facility. Inspectors have found such uranium, which at extreme enrichment levels can fuel bombs, twice in the past. The International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that at least some of those samples came from contaminated equipment that Iran had obtained from Pakistan.
But in this case, the nuclear fingerprint of the particles did not match the other samples, an official familiar with the inspections said, raising questions about their origin.
In a six-page report to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, the agency withheld judgment about where the material came from and whether it could be linked to a secret nuclear program.
Iran says that its nuclear program is intended only for the production of energy, which would use uranium enriched at far lower levels than the sample described in the report.
As expected, the report confirmed that Iran had continued producing enriched uranium, but only on a small scale and at relatively low levels, at its vast Natanz facility.
[...]
As in the past, the nuclear agency painted a confusing and incomplete picture of the state of Iran’s nuclear program, underscoring the limits of outside inspectors whose access to Iran’s nuclear sites was curtailed by Iran early this year.
On one hand, the report makes clear that, as the official familiar with the inspections said, "Inspectors have not uncovered any concrete proof that Iran’s nuclear program is of a military nature."
On the other hand, the report captures the long pattern of confusion, stonewalling, partial disclosure of information and a minimum of cooperation under Iran’s international obligations to the agency and details new suspicious activities.
Since February, when the agency referred the Iran dossier to the Security Council, Iran has drastically reduced the access of the international inspectors. The decision has limited or blocked inspections of hundreds of the country’s atomic sites, programs and personnel; the result is more uncertainty and less information about Iran’s progress in mastering the basics of uranium and plutonium, the foundations for both producing electricity and building bombs.
Most noteworthy in the report was the discovery of particles of highly enriched uranium on a container at a waste storage facility at Karaj, not far from Tehran.
The particles were taken from the container for testing a year ago, but the agency obtained the result only a few weeks ago because of the limited capacity of its verification laboratory.
In late 2003, the discovery of traces of highly enriched uranium in Iran touched off international concern about the country’s nuclear intentions and raised questions about where the material had originated. Another find of the radioactive material earlier this year redoubled the sense of alarm.
But Thursday’s disclosure was different, diplomats said. "This is the first case with no known linkage," said one European diplomat who could not be quoted by name because of diplomatic rules. "But we have to be careful because over time these things can be explained away, at least in theory."
Robert Joseph, the under secretary of state for arms control and international security, was cautious in talking about the new evidence, but said, "We need to be very concerned that Iran may well be undertaking experiments, and may be undertaking the construction of centrifuge machines, out of sight of I.A.E.A. inspectors."
Herman Kahn noted in On Thermonuclear War that the same prediction was made about the Soviets in 1945...yet when it came true, American military analysts and strategic thinkers were still taken by surprise. Kahn attributed this to the notion that "in five years time" is too easily taken to mean "five years from now," where "now" moves forward with the speaker, such that the predicted development will never arrive.
Frankly, it ought not to matter whether Iran is five years or five minutes from having an A-bomb. The Iranian theocracy has made it plain that nuclear weapons are its goal, and that once such weapons are available, they will be used. All that Americans should concern themselves with is preventing it from happening -- by any means necessary.
The Russian ruler Kruschev stated "we will bury you".
And in observing Russian ties to Iran, The Ruskies, maybe, are still trying.
Let's admit 3 things to ourselves:
1) Our "allies" commie Russia and commie China are boosters of Islam.
2) Civilized nations (i.e., non-commie non-Islam nations) do not have the political will to avert nuclear Jihad, because doing so will require use of great force.
3) Based on Bush's weak-ass yellow bellied speech yesterday, after the forthcoming nuclear detonation is done, we will placate further.
If fumbling,bumbling attempts by U.N are anything to go by Iran must be crowing-'Time is definitely on their side.'If American troops weren't bogged down in Iraq the Ayatollahs would never dared to thumb their noses at U.S.Jihadis exploit every weakness of the West.
The IAEA, the big watchdog of NUCLEAR activity had LIMITED capacity of it's verification laboratory. What a crook of sh*t! I am sure that will get explained away, at least in theory
If the west is to survive, we must remove the funding of Jihad. M.E. Oil is the main source, a program to replace M.E. oil as the blood of the west must happen. This is going to, one way or another. Anybody who takes this as his or her goal for the future, meaning tomorrow, should know that the answer has been found.
The day we see this, is the first day of our future free of jihad. Support your leaders who show they understand this.
You don't build nukes on sand with sand.
A poster said:
I agree that we have to get off the oil addiction, but that will not be the answer to jihad, or to any other motive for wreaking mass destruction. As technology advances ever more rapidly, poverty, lack of training, and lack of resources will prove less and less obstacles to wreaking mass destruction. Read Martin Rees. The trend of technology is to continually cheapen and increase the power to manipulate things -- and to destroy them. It's not just nukes that will become ever more accessible. Bioweapons will be even easier and cheaper. As will other weapons technologies now little more than a twinkle in the eyes of lab scientists.
In the coming decades the West and allies may be forced to a desperate effort to institute worldwide a benign form of Brave New World, in which there is continuous and pervasive surveillance of everyone, but under democratic checks and balances. What other way will there be to manage the increasingly vast and increasingly accessible destructive powers of technology?
Some say we are five years away from an Iranian nuke. What I'd like to know is, does anyone have a plan for the time when any fool, whether Islamist or not, can get his hands on huge destructive forces, whether nuclear or not? How many years away are we from that? What is the answer to that? At the moment I see only three likely futures:
1) Incompetent, insane, or criminal elements employ technology in ways that destroy civilization, and perhaps life itself -- or at least do enough damage to set humanity back a number of centuries. Or,
2) Humanity increasingly comes under pervasive and continuous surveillance, combined with democratic checks and balances, so that the increasing powers and availability of technology might be managed safely. Or,
3) Some mix of #1 and #2, which is perhaps the most likely future.
Admittedly, often that which is "likely" fails to come to pass. But that doesn't excuse one from trying to sense probabilities anyway.
As noted above our ground engagement in Iraq is not a limitation on our response capability; we have a bunch of people on the ready.
Iran should be warned that an attack by them on Israel or Western Europe would be an automatic call on our air force, naval air force, and eighteen Ohio class submarines to deliver their weapon systems to selected targets between Bandar Abbas and the Caspian.
Saw this the other day:
http://www.cafepress.com/rightwingstuff.54376000
I can go with that. They want them - give them to 'em.
Poetry.