Paul Belien makes some interesting observations in the Brussels Journal (thanks to Mackie):
Dr Koenraad Elst, one of Belgium’s best orientalists and an occasional contributor to this website (if I had time I would translate more of his Dutch-language contributions into English), told me last week that he thinks “Islam is in decline, despite its impressive demographic and military surge” – which according to Dr Elst is merely a “last upheaval.” He acknowledges, however, that this decline can take some time (at least in terms of the individual human life span) and that it is possible that Islam will succeed in becoming the majority religion in Europe before collapsing.I am not a specialist of Islam. Hence, I do not know what to think of this analysis. Perhaps it can be argued that Islam is in agony, and that this is precisely the reason why Muslims reacted so sensitively to twelve, mostly inoffensive, Danish cartoons earlier this year and why they respond in a fury beyond all reason to the words of a 14th century Byzantine Emperor quoted last week by Pope Benedict XVI. The Pope emphasized that he did not approve of the quote, but the reactions of Muslims to the Emperor’s words “Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman,” only lends credibility to what the Emperor said.
If a person is incapable of tolerating criticism, including mild criticism, and especially if he perceives criticism where there is none, this is often a sign of this person’s deep psychological insecurity. Rude aggression and wild rage, too, are usually not the normal behaviour of a self-confident person, but rather of someone who knows that he will lose an argument unless he can bully others into silence. Last Sunday, Catholics going to Holy Mass in London’s Westminster Cathedral were confronted by Christophobic Muslims, carrying hate posters such as “Pope go to hell,” “Benedict watch your back,” “May Allah curse the Pope,” “Jesus is the slave of Allah, “Islam will conquer Rome,” and the like. An English blogger has some photos here. What must one make of these Muslim protestors? Do they look like self-assured people?
It looks as if Muslims cannot cope with an open society and the modern globalized world. Should we interpret their aggression – the result of their inability to cope with the world – as a token of strenght, or rather as a sign of inherent weakness – a sign, as Dr Elst says, that the decline of Islam has visibly begun?
Read it all.
The Death Throes of islam still pose too great a risk of taking a great deal with them, in terms of European culture, art, literature...
It would be nice to think that Islam is indeed in its death throes. Unfortunately, it'll probably take a major cataclysm to finally bury this insane cult once and for all. It's truly astonishing to see how brainwashed these poor Muslims are-that's why they are anything but self-assured. They are taught that they are losers and that only in the afterlife will they get something worthwhile (preferably by dying in the cause of killing others). If only these people could wake up and see what their "religion" has accomplished over the last 14 centuries-maybe then we wouldn't need that cataclysm at all.
The disturbing thing about the photo of the demonstrators outside Westminster Cathedral was the way in which the mjority of them had scarves wrpped around their faces, not only making it impossible to identify them but also giving them an extremely thretening and intimidating prsence. Between the wars this country passed a political uniforms act, mainly to stop Mosley's fascists parading about in black shirts. I honestly think this scarf business at demonstrations ought to be similarly outlawed.
I try to keep up with the web of anti-jihadi bloggers in the Middle East. There are a few.
Here is where most of the criticism of Islamic idiocy exists (for all of who wonder where it is). These are the voice of the "moderate" Muslims I guess. SandMonkey from SandMonkey.org thinks that we obviously should change it from "Religion of Peace" to "Religion of the Perpetually Pissed off". but I think this Iraqi blogger's take in particularly enlightening to the west. Here's an excerpt and a link.
“All these are theatrical acts directed by governments and corrupt clerics seeking controlled anger among the mobs to use in intimidating the west and discouraging it from applying more pressure on, or calling for changing, these tyrannical regimes.”
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/
Insightful commentary from columnist Spengler of Asia Times:
Jihad, the Lord's Supper, and eternal life
www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/HI19Aa02.html
WallyUK is right-such nonsense should be banned. I doubt that it'll happen since Islamaniacs are always exempted from such laws.
As for the wearing of headscarves-of course they wear these things, being cowards. Rather than getting a life they run around making threats incognito and trying to destroy rather build.
In a way, I agree with Dr. Elst. I believe Europe will become Islamicised, and become Eurabia. Not necessarily by choice. And like Samuel Huntington said, the front lines of this confrontation will be in Europe.
As will the rest of the world, after being subdued by al-Mahdi's global jihad. No country in this world can have the size and zeal of fighters (I didn't say army) al-Mahdi will command. The Muslims have gone and mixed with the "seeds of men". And just as iron and clay do not mix, these have not mixed. I see that Islam is in our future, and the future of our children, unfortunately.
But consider what happens after this global jihad has been won by al-Mahdi. Islam will ultimately implode, simply because of the way it is held together. The mob mentality. The inability to allow for anyone to hold a slight dissenting view. And when there is no infidel to fight anymore, they will fight each other. "Peace, peace, where there is no peace".
A very sad chapter, but a great hope beyond.
Al-Mahdi & Antichrist
wallyUK: don't worry about the headscarves..nothing that CCTV won't sort out. But, we reveal our own political weakness by not being able to respond with counter-demos. We need a flash demo team (based in multiple cities) to respond to these people.
But the article by Paul Belien was very weak. Europe should worry about the Islamists destroying the cathedrals? Give me a break. He also quotes an increase in male Muslims berating female Muslims for their attire...well, show me the police figures. Yes there is a demographic problem in western Europe (BTW: if we just allow all of those lovely Polish people to stay in the UK....problem solved in 1 year)...yes we have a cultural decline...but their is an underlying strength to Europe that people at JW don't articulate. Wanna see the strength of European culture?....see the soccer world cup.
Wanna see the strength of our resolve, go talk with some British soldiers (who are killing the Taliban by the hundreds).
As anti-Jihadists, it is our current failure to generate support from the voting public that is our greatest weakness.
"the mjority of them had scarves wrpped around their faces, not only making it impossible to identify them but also giving them an extremely thretening and intimidating prsence."
Reminds me of the KKK in the US. You can hide evil behind a veil but we still know what's under there - everyone but the MSM, of course.
This thesis is all well and good but why should we pay the price for their inferiority and their foolishness and violence they spread?
Pislam has ALWAYS been dead.. it is BASED on death. There is NOTHING spiritual about this EVIL CULT.
I do see Westen soldiers fighting these beasts valiantly.. with their hands tied behind their backs by the Quisling governments and the Chamberlain Press at home.
Europe UNITED ---> mobots OUT!!!!
almost like nazis/kkk in turbans and face covers.
I would, with some reluctance accept the prediction of Dr. Elst that Islam would decline in strength, BUT only in Western nations. Because it will come a time when Western nations will have to use the stick so to speak (even if it takes a curtailment of civil liberties) to save these same civil liberties that democracies depend on, and to which the Muslims are desperately attempting to do away with.
As for the rest of the Muslim world, it would not accept Elst's prediiction. The currently standing speudo-secular Arab and non-Arab government would be at the mercy of backward waves of intolerance, intimidation, ignorance and violence.
The decline of the virulent Islam in the West will only come with a direct confrontation with it. It is inevitable that a confrontation will happen in the future because the fundamentalists will not hear reason, nor would they want to feel loosing the debate and accept the universal values of human rights of free thought and speech. I will use an Arab saying as an analogy of the inevitability of a backlash, it goes like this: "The dagger has now reached the bones". This is a famous expression that the masses of people use to justify the use of violence and property destruction when bread riots and other political unrests erupt in many Arab countries. It simply means that "enough is enough", the wound is deep.
I believe that the Western nations will react (they cannot afford not to) as soon as they start to experience this sense of a dagger making it way to the bones, in order to save the Western democracy and lifestyle.
The Truth Detector!
Ahmadinejad Speech Prayed for End of World, But Media Won't Report It That
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/today.guest.html
"It looks as if Muslims cannot cope with an open society and the modern globalized world."
Thats what I was thinking. With the invention of the internet, info about anything can be spread all over the world quite easily. The violence cause by Islam around the world can be seen by all and that make thier job "we are a religion of pease" more diffiCULT.
There seems to be something wrong with the linked article. The last sentence of the linked article ends "If Dr Elst is right, and the intimidation of adversaries by the d Cartgun?" It also looks like there's a large blank space where more text should be.
Brussels Journal is a website that sees every development about Islam pitch black. That isn't a good way to approach this subject.
Victory begins with the right mindset.
i believe the reason muslims are now so angry they can see that the west has woken up & now doesn't know what will happen to it.& happen it will,
we may have week governments in europe that will change as history shows, we may only be simple civilians but there is a lot of people out there with a lot to lose.
but it will get much worse before it gets better.
i think that in the future all peoples will have to withdraw back to their native lands . to attain peace again.
people are to tribal.
DrWolffenstein,
"Brussels Journal is a website that sees every development about Islam pitch black."
I'm inclined to agree, but then, seeing how Europe is [not] handling the Muslim problem in its midst, I don't see how the BJ could have any other attitude.
Islam Dying or not or getting more grounds in Europe -- doesn't matter. The fact of the matter is that it is bullying the world around with the world's most illiterate and intolerant people.
Spain looks to me like it is already dead as an independent nation-state.
As for Europe as a whole, the EU is busily hammering nails into Europe's coffin at a breakneck clip.
ps-Dr. Wolffenstein the appropriate mindset concerning Islam is that it is evil and everything it does it evil as well even in Europe. We can put the rose-tinted glasses back on later.
It may, as Dr. Elst says, a sign of deep-seated insecurity--a sign of weakness. On the other hand, it may well be a desire to assert Islam's primacy by turning the non-Muslim world into fearful, compliant dhimmis.
Think I'll have to go with the latter.
please sign this petition this was sent to me if you agree & pass on thanks.
http://www.petitiononline.com/NoSharia/petition.html
I just signed the petition...and I am not even a citizen of the UK!....I feel that strongly that the clueless liberal politicians in the UK and EU are on the verge of killing their own culture and societies by allowing these "squatters" to run rampant thru their countries...Something needs to be done and fast!....otherwise the UK and EU are doomed!.....
The Corsicans certainly will not take this lying down.
http://meionline.com/backcover/332.shtml
People who are dying by drowning grab hold of others and drag them to the depths of the ocean.
"If a person is incapable of tolerating criticism, including mild criticism, and especially if he perceives criticism where there is none, this is often a sign of this person’s deep psychological insecurity. Rude aggression and wild rage, too, are usually not the normal behaviour of a self-confident person, but rather of someone who knows that he will lose an argument unless he can bully others into silence....
"It looks as if Muslims cannot cope with an open society and the modern globalized world. Should we interpret their aggression – the result of their inability to cope with the world – as a token of strenght[h], or rather as a sign of inherent weakness – a sign, as Dr Elst says, that the decline of Islam has visibly begun?"
I guess I'm not getting it. Islam and Muslims have been like this since the beginning. Even criticism by poets such as Asma bint Marwan and Abu Afak were met with murderous rage. So what's new? Why assume it is in decline as opposed to feeling strong enough to no longer tolerate "humiliation" and "injustice"? Isn't it more likely a response to seeing your enemy cower and appease (Neville Chamberlain resurrected) and trumpeting your slogans via their own media?
I wish there had been a definitive "slap down" by Western culture and media during the Cartoon Rage incident, giving the ululating hordes the exact opposite of what they have come to expect.
*~@(:>(=
Not another American life should be expended to defend the cock suckers of Europe.
It is very easy to get seduced by the idea that history has an inevitability to it and that trends will continue without end. It is, afteral, only 13 years since Fukuyama predicted the final triumph of liberal democracy! We should not think that just because Islam is rampant that it will continue as such. We should also not assume that Christian/secular Europe is in irrevocable decline. Any serious student of history will tell you that you should expect the unexpected. Who in their wildest imagination would have predicted the end of communism without a great war…or even a nuclear exchange?
The same goes for notions of Eurabia as so confidently predicted by the Westminster mob.
We must look beyond the trial of ideas to another factor…oil. Or, more accurately, the end of cheap Middle Eastern oil; what some call ‘peak oil’. In many ways oil has been the making of militant Islamism in the form of easy wealth, arrogance and a population explosion. All that is coming to an end with even the once huge Saudi fields spluttering out. While the western world comes to deal with the journey away from fossil fuels there will be 2 impacts, certainly in Europe. Firstly, there will be a recession. During such a major structural recession attitudes harden and the population loses the will to share or accommodate others. This will cause a shutdown of immigration and great reawakening of nationalism as everyone tries to preserve what he or she has. There is no room for disloyal Islamic islands in that scenario. You only need to recreate the 1930’s to see how Europe woke from the post WW 1 torpor.
Hostility and a general fall in wealth will also make Europe less attractive to outsiders. However, the greatest effect will be to undercut the power of Islam for expansion as their oil runs out and/or the west switches to more secure alternatives. That will be the pivot point and if Islam is not yet in full command in Europe it will be ejected or Moslems will be forced to demonstrate greater loyalty or leave.
I don’t think we are that far away from such a major structural re-adjustment in history’s tectonic plates. If the 19th century started after Waterloo in 1815 and the 20th century began in Flanders in 1915, will the 21st begin somewhere as yet unknown in 2015?
The best thing that ever happened for Islam in Europe was the creation of the EU by fuzzy headed utopians. Once that happened, Islam had an even easier time invading the continent. Hitler and Napoleon both failed to unite Europe under one entity and the result was massive devestation. Islam now gets a united entity that is prosperous to take over. If Europe is to survive the EU needs to disappear. At least then some countries might be able to overcome this menace.
Peter,
I completely agree with you that current trends can change on a dime. Look at how quickly we stopped appeasement of the Soviet Union with the exchange of Reagan for Carter in 1980.
But I disagree with the oil analysis. This is actually my field. We have no good alternatives to oil that are economically viable on a large scale. The less production from the Middle East (supply), the higher the price will be (demand). At this point, we are having more and more trouble finding oil and thus, the supply is unlikely to increase. The only way to lower oil prices at this point is to significantly cut supply. At our current trajectory, the oil countries will only get richer. To limit their wealth we need to both find an alternative and drill at home.
I also disagree that it is solely, or even predominantly oil wealth and its resulting arrogance which has driven Militant Islamization in the Middle East. There was a significant shift to it with the Iranian Islamic revolution. In addition, non-oil producing countries continued to decline after implementing socialism in combination with dictatorship after western colonialism ended around the middle of the 20th century. A notable example is Egypt which was a very liberal country, the birth place of the Middle East's feminist movement, and highly westernized by the middle part of the last century. It was secular by popular demand. Gamal Nasser took control of the country in the 1952 revolution, implemented socialism (with the help of the Russians), secret police and eliminated free media. From about 1930-1975 or so people dressed in Western clothes and that was the norm. Today, more and more people dress in abayyas and scarves. The only real counter-movement to Mubarak's oppressive dictatorship is the Muslim Brotherhood - a homegrown terrorist, wahhabist movement seeking a theocracy and sharia law. "Islam is the answer" is their slogan. Poverty and oppression creates the need for scapegoats. But the poverty and oppression is not inflicted on them by the West (the scapegoat)- it is created by their own hand.
As for the Europeans, I don't think that they will stand for Islamization in the end. They will crack down on terror and tighten immigration (I agree with you on that) if pushed too far. And I think they will be.
Dr. Koenrad Elst is a very respected scholar. I have read his book/monograph, Negationism in India, and it was an eye opener.
Indeed Islam, an evil religion shall die by 2030. But, the trouble is that before its death, it shall unleash its poisonous venom that shall cause severe harm to mankind and this planet.
Do not write us off. The Mark Steyn world view of European auto destruction is extremely convincing and of course he is correct .... but only if nothing changes.
The changes however are happening and its almost palpable in France.
I'll give you a few examples from the last few days.
The Pope's extremely intelligent jab at Islam in his Regensburg lecture was exquisite. He distanced himself from the remarks by quoting somebody else. He preempts any possible criticism by suggesting that those who do not follow has reasoning have no faculties of reason. And he has provided a very elegant apology.
Read this carefully:
"I hope that my profound respect for world religions and for Muslims who worship the one God and which help to promote peace, liberties, justice and moral values for the benefit of all humanity is clear"
By using the term 'muslims' and not 'islam' he has effectively said that Muslims who worship the one true God are respected.
Polls in Britain and France, overwhelmingly support his speech and no Muslim can criticise him without looking like a raving lunatic.
It's one of the cleverest intellectual attacks I have ever had the good fortune to read. We can now sit back and see the results. This lecture represents a massive taboo which has been broken.
In France, once again an article in Le Figaro has bought the muslims out in a rash and once again made them look idiotic. The article at the bottom of the link here http://www.denistouret.net/textes/Redeker.html caused the newspaper to be taken off the streets in Tunisia. Choice quote from the text "The Qu'ran is a book is unbelievable violence"
Imagine that in a US daily paper!
Every day on the news there are sob stories about poor africans sent back to their homeland. No one cares.
The interior minister has accused judges of being too lenient on violent offenders. This is in respose to an attack on 2 police officers led into a trap by a gang of 20 'youths' armed with baseball bats. One is in hospital with a double scull fracture. http://www.lefigaro.fr/france/20060921.WWW000000420_le_crs_blesse_raconte.html
Ramadam, which is due to start with a bang on the 26th of September is expected to be very violent. Even the left wing Le Monde published a long article on this subject.
The 'Carte Scolaire' which is the map which decides which school your child goes too is under extreme criticism because no one wants to send their kids to a violent school. Even the socialists have to take parents concerns into account.
In fact its practically impossible to find a newspaper article which makes Islam or immigration look like a good idea.
"Hitler and Napoleon both failed to unite Europe under one entity and the result was massive devestation."
Don't you mean "Hitler and Napolean both ATTEMPTED to unite Europe and the result of the attempt was massive devestation"?
"Islam now gets a united entity that is prosperous to take over."
There are prosperous countries in the EU (the Netherlands is a notable example) but its two largest economies and most influential countries, Germany and France, are essentially living off accumulated capital. Their socialist experiments have resulted in double digit unemployment rates. I don't have the statistics for France but in Germany, the number of people living off the welfare system grew 400%, for the same time period the number of people paying into the system grew only 4%.
The main reason that Chirac is pandering to Ahmadinnerjacket (by not supporting sanctions) is that France sells a lot to Iran. Sancitioning iran would mean losing 500 jobs or so and France is so badly off that it can't afford to lose even that tiny amount jobs - a testament to a mismanaged economy. Let's not forget that this is the same reason France, Russia, and China apposed the Iraq war.
The reaction to the Pope's University of Regensburg lecture of the Islamic "street" (and too many Islamic clerics) was almost autoerotic in its self-absorption and insensitivity toward the feelings, concerns and well-being of others. It is no wonder that young men, raised in this decadent environment of male self-gratification posing as religion, are willing to become suicidal murderers in the hope of obtaining their 72 virgins in an eternal post-martyrdom "Big Bang" autoerotic fantasy.
Pity the motel staff who, on September 11, 2001, had to clean up the rooms occupied by Mohammed Atta and his 18 co-jihadists the previous night.
In what way is the West in decline?
We have space exploration, genetics, nano machine exploration and String theory among other remarkable theories to keep our scientists happy.
Our music lovers can choose from a long catalogue of great musicians, and despite the internet revolution musicians are still turning out great music.
We have the World Cup and the World Series. The Olympic Games and even the Golfist’s Ryder Cup challenge. Sport is not in decline.
Religion does not govern this nation thankfully. And a lack of religion does not equal moral depravity. In fact I take offence at the assumption that you are lacking something if you are not spiritually guided by somebody else.
When people realise that Islam has raised its political status using terror and protests, and Infact is incapable of a direct assault against the West, then we can stop the hysteria and tell the buggers to piss off.
Truly, anybody who thinks Islam will conquer Britain must have a crystal ball or an ulterior motive.
Hate begets hate and peaceful people are prepared to defend their lives when they are threatened.
Europe has spent most of its existence in far more crap than this.
Mert,
I agree with you. Especially about the World Cup, LOL.
But seriously, to think that Europe has not faced and overcome worse than this, is to not know history. I don't think Europe will ultimately allow itself to be rolled over. Unfortunately, unlike Britain and America, Eruope likes to wait until it's almost too late to act (the appeasement of Hitler, Iraq and Iran come to mind as examples).
In the end, they too will fight for their culture and their heritage - as always - and they will win. They will win if only because the Islamic hordes are the least educated, most disorganized bunch of morons on the planet. Not to mention that muslims make up only 20% of the world's population and most of them really can't be bothered to risk death to Islamize the world.
"I'm inclined to agree, but then, seeing how Europe is [not] handling the Muslim problem in its midst, I don't see how the BJ could have any other attitude."
Agreed ofcourse, but "Victory begins with the right mindset" isn't in contrary with that. ;)
Citycat,
My Aunty did our family tree this year and she found a relative called Samuel White who died in WW1. He was nineteen when he joined up, but the Commonwealth War Graves Commission has no grave marker for him. He was just another man fed through the meat grinder of European industrial warfare in the 20th Century.
In WWII Britain was bombed extensively in preparation for Operation Sealion. My old School is next to a German bombsite, and the Church down the road from my mother’s house is pockmarked by shrapnel from a German bomb.
15% of 2.7% of the British population does not make a Dunkirk moment. Personally I find the assumption that we are doomed offensive.
Sorry, a correction:
"The less production from the Middle East (supply), the higher the price will be (demand)"
I screwed up everything in the editing. Price is obviously not demand. What I meant to say is that the only way to cut demand significantly enough to make a real dent in price is through severely decreased economic output, high levels of substitution, or large improvements in efficiency of use. Barring that, price will continue to rise as supply decreases. The other
"The only way to lower oil prices at this point is to significantly cut supply"
That should read: INCREASING supply of oil requires finding new cheap to produce reserves, and we seem to be completely out of those. Thus, without an increase in supply at these price levels, the natural annual increase in demand will drive oil prices on an upward sloping trajectary.
God, I'm tired.
For anyone who gave a crap what about what I wrote in my original post - sorry for the confusing mistake. For everybody else...moving right along.....
Mert,
I had a family member in the battle of Berlin and I'm a bit of a WWII buff. My Great grandfather and countless other members of my family fought with the allies in WWI as well. I know just what you mean. OF COURSE we won't lose! Anyone who believes such rubbish has never met anyone from Britain.
Sorry, I don't agree with the article's apparent conclusion that Christianity would have prevented islam's rise in Europe, or that it would be the answer now. The last pope was very welcoming to muslims. Also, the claim that humans are religious creatures doesn't seem to apply to me, or many people I know. We just DON'T believe in a particular deity and can't force ourselves to.
What we do need is a set of values that westerners and good immigrants, religious or not, can agree on, and a firm decision to not bend to other, less humane values.
Many things have been overlooked here. Much of the West is in danger of being gobbled up by Islam. They have forgotten one thing - simple demographics. On current trends, much of Western Europe is expected to be more than 50% Islamic by the end of this century. The baby boom is coming from that demographic. We hear so much about the average family of 2.4 children, but forget that non-Muslims struggle to make 1.4 children per family, whilst for Muslims, it is much nearer 4.4 or 5.4 children per family. And the Muslim population is much younger as well, whilst amongst the non-Muslims we have an army of male and female Bridget Joneses who reach menopause without having kids. The family bloodline ends with them. So the future looks bleak for countries top heavy with ageing non-Muslims and a growing breed of increasingly youthful and fanatical Muslims.
Typical.
Make the assumption that the British people are going to tolerate militant Islam in the news everyday for another fifty years.
The assumption that Islam must win is based on star gazing into the future. Just like saying Hitler couldn’t lose after Dunkirk.
The overall assumption is that we are sheep, and that is bollocks.
I would argue that any cult that bows to pray to a rock in Mecca five times a day is already dead.
Spirit of 1683 has made a crucial point.
All the guts, fortitude and character in the world isn't going to mean much if you don't have a new generation to pass those onto.
I know that in Italy and Spain the birth rate of non-Muslims is less than half of the required replacement rate. I don't know what it is for the UK. Anyone else know?
Euros have to start having babies again. There is no hope for any nation without children.
Well, folks, re Islam and he West, I wonder if I am any longer a "good" Westnerner; and certainly cannot become a European, even if I learned half of the languages of the continent. As a Christian, I find the recent canonization of homosexuality as an acceptable lifestyle, and turning abortion into a sacrament for women who seek to realize their fullest potential as an insult to all humanity. No, the clash between Islam and the post-Christian West seems to be a frightful divine judgment on the arrogance of both of those cjultures.
Yes, I fight for the West, which is my home. But I will state categorically that if the day comes when Muslim immigrants in Europe either shed their religion or go packing back to where they came from; or if the West again occupies the southern shore of the Mediterranean, it will only because the sins of Islam are greater.
But, can I truly identify completely with a modern Western culture which has bowed deeply to its own death wish long before it adopted the Dhimmi posture towards Islam?
Firstly,
I want to thank EVERYONE associated with this site. Since I came here I have learned sooooooo much! And have directed many people here.
Just a couple of things:
re peak oil - didn't they just find a whole new well in the Gulf of Mexico, and isn't there a lot of shale oil in Colorado? I know this may take a lot of time and money to access.
Also re falling birthrates:
Here in OZ they are paying out a baby bonus of $7000 for each new baby, and encouraging people to have more.
So far it has worked. Unfortunately I do not know how many of these births are to muslim families.
Peter Costello is the national treasurer who has also stated there will never be sharia law in Australia, and if some didn't find that acceptable, they should leave.
>>>A RED-HOT economy, Peter Costello's handouts and fears of leaving it too late have combined to produce a baby boom the likes of which has not been seen in Australia for almost 35 years.
"It looks as if Muslims cannot cope with an open society and the modern globalized world."
More ominously, it looks like the "modern globalized world" "cannot cope with" the presence of Muslims in their dominions.
What could be clearer: We perish if chaos flourishes. Muslims flourish when chaos flourishes. Muslims are increasingly throwing our societies into chaos.
It's EASY to destroy. This is one of Islam's main specialties. Just look at the filth encrusted cultures and societies they've incited across the globe, and here in our domains.
Wastelands. Cesspools. Sewers of degradation and corruption.
Is Islam dying? Absolutely NO!
It's another manifestation of our mythic belief in our own omnipotence. I don't blame Westerners who believe this way -- after all, how MAGNIFICENT our Western Society is! (warts and all). But we unthinkingly permit millions upon millions of these heinous Muslim destroyers into our midst, and do NOTHING to impede their sedition subversion and treasons.
We are doomed if we don't at least expel them. There is no other choice, and mass expulsion is the rosy scenario. If our Western elites in the media, academia, law enforcement, and governments don't begin to impede the Muslims, then sadly individuals will have to act in a vigilante manner and begin to repudiate the filth. This will be nearly as destructive to the West as the Muslims are by themselves -- we have few options.
I fear we've already drunken too deeply from the cup of poison -- it's only a matter of determining how we metabolize the poison of Islam in our domain. Will we heal ourselves? Or will we succumb.
History shows that the age-old Muslim techniques are extremely effective against all manner of superior cultures. This doesn't bode well for us.
Indeed, more oil has been found in the Gulf. However, we aren't sure how much there is in total, how much of the total is recoverable and whether the likes of Al Gore and his ilk will successfully stop the drilling of it. Even if we overcome these hurdles, global demand growth will outstrip the new supply by a wide margin and any oil from the reservoir won't come on the market for several more years.
There is more oil in the shale rock of the Rocky Mountains than there is in all of Saudi Arabia. However, it is very expensive to produce and those projects too are years away from producing and will be outstripped by demand.
If there is no demand growth or a demand shock like the one experienced in the 1998 Asian currency crises (when demand dropped so low that oil prices were driven to around $10 per barrel), then it means that our economies are in the toilet. That's not exactly great either.
I'm afraid they have us by the proverbial balls when it comes to oil - at least in the imaginable future. That's why it's so important that none of them have "the bomb". They can essentially get whatever concessions they want from us with the threat of economic torture through control and restriction of a key commodity.
Citycat, we are not really beholden to Saudi Arabia for oil if we decide to pay a bit more for it. Indeed, Canada sells the US more oil than Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian oil accounts for only 11.5% of total US consumption as of 2004. Even if the Saudis were to shut off the tap, like they did during the '73 oil embargo, nothing of consequence would happen. Nixon put price controls on gasoline and the US economy went on like before. In fact, it shocks me as to how many huge cars were sold in '73 and '74 during the oil embargo.
If the US wanted to, it could replace that 11.5% with an increase from Canada and an increase in its own production. Of course, that would mean more expensive oil, as the Canadian tar sands and the US shale oil costs a bit more to retrieve. But, at current prices of $75 a barrel, that oil is marketable. Unfortunately, the US oil industry prefers to buy mid east oil and refine it, rather than spend extra money to pump its own.
America is addicted to Saudi oil. It needs to get off it. It is only a question of political will. Right now there is no political will. I am hoping that something happens to give us that political will. Bush loves the Saudis, Hilary will love them just as much. The status quo is always the most comfortable to those in power. That is the problem - political inertia.
Thanks for the info Citycat, am posting an article which gives an idea of what could happen.
(if you go to this 'blog, it is w-a-y down!
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/
Charles Krauthammer lays out how it will be when we do what must be done, at 5 minutes to midnight. Taking out Iran's nukes is just one bullet in an action plan to free the Middle East;
Moment of truth is near for the next big fight
In his televised 9/11 address, President Bush said that we must not "leave our children to face a Middle East overrun by terrorist states and radical dictators armed with nuclear weapons." There's only one such current candidate: Iran.
The next day, he responded thus (as reported by Rich Lowry and Kate O'Beirne of National Review) to a question on Iran: "It's very important for the American people to see the President try to solve problems diplomatically before resorting to military force."
"Before" implies that the one follows the other. The signal is unmistakable. An aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities lies just beyond the horizon of diplomacy. With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option.
The costs will be terrible:
Economic. An attack on Iran will likely send oil prices overnight to $100 or even to $150 a barrel. That will cause a worldwide recession perhaps as deep as the one triggered by the Iranian revolution of 1979.
Iran might suspend its own 2.5 million barrels a day of oil exports, and might even be joined by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, asserting primacy as the world's leading anti-imperialist. But even more effectively, Iran will shock the oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz through which 40% of the world's exports flow every day. Iran could do this by attacking ships in the strait, scuttling its own ships, laying mines or just threatening to launch Silkworm anti-ship missiles at any passing tanker.
The U.S. Navy will be forced to break the blockade. We will succeed, but at considerable cost. And it will take time - during which time the world economy will be in a deep spiral.
Military. Iran will activate its proxies in Iraq, most notably Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army. Sadr is already wreaking havoc with sectarian attacks on Sunni civilians. Iran could order the Mahdi army and its other agents within the police and armed forces to take up arms against the institutions of the central government itself, threatening the very anchor of the new Iraq. Many Mahdi will die, but they live to die. Many Iraqis and coalition soldiers are likely to die as well.
Among the lesser military dangers, Iran might activate terrorist cells around the world, although, without nuclear capability, that threat is hardly strategic. It also will be very difficult to unleash its proxy Hezbollah, now chastened by the destruction it brought upon Lebanon in the latest round with Israel and deterred by the presence of Europeans in the south Lebanon buffer zone.
Diplomatic. There will be massive criticism of America from around the world. Much of it is to be discounted. The Muslim street will come out again for a few days, having replenished its supply of flammable American flags, most recently exhausted during the cartoon riots. Their governments will express solidarity with a fellow Muslim state, but this will be entirely hypocritical. The Arabs are terrified about the rise of a nuclear Iran and would privately rejoice in its defanging.
The Europeans will be less hypocritical because their visceral anti-Americanism trumps rational calculation. We will have done them an enormous favor by sparing them the threat of Iranian nukes, but they will vilify us nonetheless.
These are the costs. There is no denying them. However, equally undeniable is the cost of doing nothing.
Read it all.
The simple point I was trying to make about 'peak oil' is that, at some time in the next 20 years, we are heading for a massive economic restructuring to deal with energy shortage. That restructuring will cause stress in western societies (either as the stress of change or recession).
At the present, when we are in general doing reasonably well we are prone to behave in a reasonable and tolerant manner. Historically, great change comes about in a society at a time of stress such as war or economic hardship. Europe and the West look weak and spineless at the moment but you only have to look at the recovery of will (tragically misdirected) of Germany from 1929 till 1942 to see both the potential and the risk.
If I were a cleaver Islamic agitator (perhaps a contradiction in terms?) I would be very careful not to wake Europe up too quickly. The longer it sleeps in comfort the better for them. Once Europe wakes up you can never be quite sure if it will be in a good mood.
August22,
When I first started to post on this board, I thought I was mainly talking to Americans. I'm starting to realize that there are a great many Europeans on this board. So, when I say "we" I mean all the non-oil producing, non-Middle Eastern countries. And "we" are dependendant on Middle Eastern oil.
I covered oil companies as an oil analyst for many years and I can tell you that what you're saying about the preference to import oil is not true. It costs less than $2-5 per barrel to produce oil in Saudi Arabia while it costs a multiple of that to find and produce oil on our own territory. The shale oil of the Rocky mountains is estimated to cost between $40 and $50 per barrel to produce. Couple that with CONSTANT anti-oil drilling legislation led by the likes of Al Gore and the threat of "windfall" taxes, and we are shooting ourselves in the foot in terms of energy.
However, that's just America. Saudia Arabia exports far more oil to Japan than to the US. The second largest economy on earth will always be dependent on foreign oil, as will Europe. While the US may (in theory) become independent from Arab oil, the rest of the world cannot and will continue to have to cow-tow to vicious Arab governments.
In addition, buying from Saudi Arabia is not the worst thing. 98% of Saudi Arabia's GDP (a similar number for Iran is estimated) comes from petroleum. They are terrified that the world will find a substitute or that that dependent economies will suffer a recession and a oil demand will fall off, dragging price down with it. They are terrified of any demand shortfall as the ENTIRE budget for these countries consists of oil money. Thus, the brisk trade in oil also incentivizes them to be more rational than they would be naturally. After all, any destabilizing force (like terrorism) reduces economic growth. The Saudi government cracks down rather heavily on terrorists and suspected terrorists for that reason. However, all governments are hampered by the fact that you cannot control EVERY individual's behaviour. The Wahhabi clerics, on the other hand, don't understand matters of economics (or much else, for that matter) and it is they who incite violence and terror. The Saudi government must rule in alliance with them or not rule at all - thus, the government always walks that thin line. It's complicated, but basically selling us oil makes them as dependent on us as we are on them. More so, even.
So, I don't think US independence from Arab/Persian oil is the key to stopping terrorism. I think we're going to do it the old fashioned way and we're going to have to stop criticizing Bush for wire-tapping, the Patriot Act and aggressive questioning tactics for suspected terrorists. But, of course, that's just my opinion.
Peter,
you said:
"The simple point I was trying to make about 'peak oil' is that, at some time in the next 20 years, we are heading for a massive economic restructuring to deal with energy shortage. That restructuring will cause stress in western societies (either as the stress of change or recession)"
I've heard that argument and those predictions for decades. To accept the argument you would have to assume that we will make no technological breakthroughs to help us find oil in places we were not able to before more cheaply than before. This would mean that we would have to ignore the fact that this is exactly what we have been able to do over the decades. In fact, the Gulf discovery would have been cost prohibitive and impossible just 10 years ago. Today, drilling technology has made it a reality. I am always amazed when I talk to drilling companies and the folks who run exploration and production operations. Our accomplishments are staggering. Our civilization should be very proud.
I think that if we do run into a true peak, we won't happen upon it suddenly, with oil going from $65 to $200 overnight, but through steadily rising oil prices, giving us time to adjust our economies.
I think the biggest threat to a sudden oil shock is if Hussein in Iraq had or Iran will use the threat of Nuclear war with its neighbors to take control of their oil supply and use the oil supply to force the West to it's knees. In that way, they could insist on Sharia law in Western countries and a whole host of other deplorable things.
To that end, I believe that Chirac and his appeasing companions have to root around and find their balls now and sanction the hell out of Iran. Do to it what Reagan did to Russia - make it bankrupt. Deny the ability to build bombs. Give them the choice - feed the population or build the bomb. No doubt what they will choose. The people already hate the Mullahs and they've had one revolution, I'm sure they have another in them. Severe sanctions are far less costly than war. Plus, we have to not give up the ground we've gained in Iraq. Again, just my opinion.
Well, that's enough of me pontificating on oil and geopolitical solutions for now. LOL.
Eurabia will be averted in my opinion by the aise of China and India.
As somebody has said earlier great changes happen during war time or economic downturn, well the muslims are carrying a proxy war on the infedel nations and on the other side the growth of Chinese and Indian economies will make the economic situation of France, Germany,UK worse rising unemployment level.
On the one hand Muslim black mail and on the other accelerating unemployment becoz of shifting of manufacture to low cost countries, will create the perfect conditions for blaming someone and the blame will obviously fall on the muslims becoz of their threats and blackmail of the western countries..
It will not be a surprise if 5 years from now somepart of european muslims demand a seperation nation for themselves..