"Mahdi army commanders withdraw to Iran to lie low during security crackdown," by Michael Howard for The Guardian:
Senior commanders of the Mahdi army, the militia loyal to the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, have been spirited away to Iran to avoid being targeted in the new security push in Baghdad, a high-level Iraqi official told the Guardian yesterday.
On the day the Iraqi government formally launched its crackdown on insurgents and amid disputed claims about the whereabouts of Mr Sadr, the official said the Mahdi army leadership had withdrawn across the border into Iran to regroup and retrain.
"Over the last three weeks, they [Iran] have taken away from Baghdad the first and second-tier military leaders of the Mahdi army," he said. The aim of the Iranians was to "prevent the dismantling of the infrastructure of the Shia militias" in the Iraqi capital - one of the chief aims of the US-backed security drive.
Plotting to let the U.S. do the dirty work, and then come back and get on with the Iranian client state:
"The strategy is to lie low until the storm passes, and then let them return and fill the vacuum," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Tehran authorities were "playing a waiting game" until the commanders could return to Baghdad and resume their activities. "All indications are that Moqtada is in Iran, but that is not really the point," he added.
Uprisings
One of the main aims of the latest government crackdown - codename Imposing Law - is to halt the work of the Shia militias and death squads thought to be behind much of the sectarian violence gripping the capital.
[...]
"They [the Iranians] are calculating that the security operation will continue for a certain period of time, and that it will do serious damage to the Sunni jihadists and the insurgents," the official said. "While in Iran they will be able to get more training and then once the Sunnis have been pacified, they plan to return."
The claims appeared to be partially confirmed in the holy city of Najaf, south of the capital, yesterday by a senior figure in the Mahdi army, Karim al-Moussawi. He said most of the militia leaders had gone to Iran, but on their own initiative. "They were neither ordered to go by Sayid Muqtada nor invited to enter by the Iranian authorities," he said. "Simply they were seeking sanctuary as individuals from expected targeting by the US occupying forces during the security drive in Baghdad." A number of commanders had also gone to Najaf and the southern provinces, he added. "The US forces should be targeting the real terrorists," he said.
The US has long blamed Iran - and Syria - for letting militants use their territory to slip into Iraq to attack US and Iraqi forces as well as civilians. Yesterday George Bush said he was convinced Iranian weapons were being used by insurgents in Iraq and promised to "do something about it".
Iraqi authorities, although regularly echoing the US charges against Syria, rarely repeat claims of interference from Iran, with which the Shia-led administration in Baghdad has close ties.
Vanishing
Reports of the vanishing Mahdi fighters came amid mounting speculation over the whereabouts of Mr Sadr. The chief US military spokesman in Baghdad said the anti-western cleric had fled to Iran. "He is in Iran and he left last month," said Major General William Caldwell. US forces were tracking him "very closely", he said.
An adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has supported the claim that al-Sadr is in Iran in this AP story, but insists he's just visiting.
The assertion was hotly contested by senior members of the Sadr movement, who said their leader had been in Najaf meeting local officials. One pro-Sadr satellite channel showed footage of Mr Sadr that it said was taken in Najaf three days ago. Falah al-Akaily, a pro-Sadr MP, said: "This is just a rumour sent around to confuse people. Sayid Moqtada is available and has not left Iraq. Why would he need to do so? The movement has declared its support for the security crackdown and its full cooperation in defeating the terrorists."
A statement by the Sadr movement's office in Sadr City accused the US of playing games: "This is a lie put out as part of a psychological and media campaign by the US occupation to hurt the reputation of the brave national leader."
Of course. What might the Mahdi Army rank-and-file think if they found out their leadership had fled the country and left them behind as cannon fodder?
Wiki quote
Date August 7, 1942 – February 9, 1943
Location Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands
Result Allied strategic victory.
US losses
1,768 dead (ground),
4,911 dead (naval),
420 dead (aircrew),
4 captured,
29 ships sunk,
615 aircraft destroyed[5] end quote.
We lost more dead from naval losses than ground in the Guadalcanal campaign. How many people knew that, raise your hands.
Invading Iran will end their killing us. An air strike just prolongs the war. When they choose when to strike us we lose more. That's what is happening in Iran.
Battle_of_Guadalcanal wiki
re Thomas Holsinger on “The Case for Invading Iran”
The mahdi army,like Atta and his pukes, a la Osama, expects to be expended, i.e. killed, so they should be sent to allah as soon as possible.
No foot soldiers = no army.
And that's what happens when it is expressed by Maliki that the Iraqi border to Iran and Syria will be closed for some internal house-cleaning in Baghdad. He wouldn't say when it would be effected or how long it would last, but the point was well-taken by his pal, al Sadr.
This reads like a bad soap opera. How long can the ruse that this is actually a war we intend on winning? How long can we sit by and watch this Iranian puppet, Maliki undermine anything the US military attempts to accomplish?
A statement by the Sadr movement's office in Sadr City accused the US of playing games: "This is a lie put out as part of a psychological and media campaign by the US occupation to hurt the reputation of the brave national leader."
Indeed. Another fine example of how all Muslims are equal in Islam. So al Sadr runs away while his subordinates are left behind. It is no different than the endless line of buffoons, waiting to be equipped for detonation by others who have much better things to do with their time, than to die a martyr and receive the ultimate reward from Allah.
Public and prolonged exposure of al-Sadr's cowardice are warranted.
"..what might the Mahdi army think if they found out that their leadership had fled the country and left them behind as cannon fodder?"
With all due respect, this is exactly what the rank and file expect. The rank and file are cannon fodder and their leaders are, by western standards, cowards. This is not going to cause morale problems or a change in the way muslim tribal leaders view their duties.
WAR IS DECEIT -Muhammad
I HAVE BEEN MADE VICTORIOUS BY TERROR - Muhammad
Thus Jihad and your standard bestial mass murder fits just fine into Islamic war doctrines. By bestial mass murder all one needs to do is look at the Sunni's stealth bombing campaign against Shi'ite civilians in Iraq
How ironic that believers in the false prophet are murdering other believers in the same false prophet due to doctrinal differences as to who deserved to inherit the war-booty-dhimmi-Jizya-sexslave empire of that false prophet
Iran is to Iraq as Laos, Cambodia, and China were to Vietnam. Iran is a sanctuary and a supplier. The parallels to the Vietnam War are disturbing. All the Vietnam era words are being repeated; if "light at the end of the tunnel" shows up in some report, we're screwed.
Looks like another "Wait Bush Out" strategy.
Dear God, I hope Guiliani wins in '08.
Of all the demon sick Jihadis that regularly get their pictures in the media, Al Sadr has, by far, one of the most crazy, sickest looks when he looks out of his face!!
He exudes a hatred that says: "I hate everything and everybody on this planet including myself".
What a poster child. He would be great on a poster that says: "Uncle Sadr needs you"!--- "We promise you can murder all you want".
We can only hope that his short, miserable, useless life will end so he can go have an up close and personal encounter with his 72 demons in drag.
Cluck , cluck...cluck?
The thing that astonishes me is that many people in the US claim to not consider Iran a threat.
They either have not been listening to the increasingly psychotic rhetoric from Ahmadinijad and other high-ranking Iranians about destroying the US and "wiping Israel off the map", or they just consider it "colorful" Middle Eastern hyperbole, not to be taken seriously. They ignore or downplay Iran's developing nuclear capabilities and their running Shiite death squads in Iraq.
Many, mostly, but not exclusively on the left, claim that any alarm over Iran is just an excuse for the 'crazed war-mongering, colonialist' Bush administration to start a conflict with another peaceful nation.
I can certainly understand concern that any open conflict with Iran might be as poorly run as the Iraq war--and potentially even more devastating--I do think that this is a legitimate worry.
But to think that Iran is no threat to the West, and that this is just some paranoid fantasy trumped up by the White House, is dumbfounding.
...............
from above:
"The US forces should be targeting the real terrorists," he said.
...
Sayid Moqtada is available and has not left Iraq. Why would he need to do so? The movement has declared its support for the security crackdown and its full cooperation in defeating the terrorists."
..............
Ah, yes--the "real terrorists"--here meaning Sunni insurgents, suicide bombers and death squads, rather than the Shiite variety.
God the Iran must be worried that they might not get a friendly Shia country on their doorstep and instead end up with another enemy state, like the one which was encouraged to massacre 1 million of its people in the 80s.
No, they're beside themselves with joy that we'll be doing their dirty work in stomping on the Sunni insurgency. Once that's done, the Iran-leaning government in Baghdad that we put in power will thank us, invite us to leave, and tell us that they can take over from there.
Maybe the Madhi armys claims of victories over the infidels were premature....
On Guadalcanal, the Japanese came out big time losers: For the Japanese, losses were even more traumatic: 14,800 killed in battle, another 9,000 dead from disease, and about 1,000 taken prisoner.
In virtually every battle the Japanese engaged with US forces, they lost men at approximately a 10:1 ratio....
Had we the weapons then that we have now, the ratio would have been greater....
WWI Mobilization from Army.mil
quote
The United States entered World War I almost completely unprepared: the National Defense Act which Congress had passed in 1916 had provided the basis of a mobilization plan, not an actual army. In early 1917 the country had only 210,000 men under arms, a third of them National Guardsmen who had been called up the previous summer to serve on the Mexican border. The Army had no permanent tactical organization above the level of the regiment and lacked adequate quantities of artillery, machine guns, tanks, modern aircraft, and even gas masks. Its General Staff organization was not designed to cope with the logistical and operational problems presented by a major conflict, and at the direction of the Wilson administration it had made no war plans. The Army had no intelligence organization.
Within seventeen months, however, the country had transformed itself into a fighting machine. With the help of the draft, the United States raised an Army of 4 million men; half of this great force was transported to France, where it provided the decisive margin that led to victory over Imperial Germany and its allies.
end quote
US Army Mobilization WWI from 0.2 to
Victory 19mo
What we get for even 850 killed invading Iran? We get a reduction in deaths in Iraq. We don't really need to stay in Iraq. We remove Iran's nuclear program, subs and missiles. We can link up to our troops in Afghanistan.
We can surround and blockade Pakistan to give up its nukes, subs and missiles. Pakistan is working on minature warheads to go on missiles on subs. See Complete 9-11 timeline for whether Pakistan was linked to 9-11 or attacks on US troops since then.
Middle East Myopic Retreat Will Have Higher Losses
exsgtbrown good points. It shows how hard the Japanese fought. We should expect to lose fewer lives in invading Iran than we did at Guadalcanal.