"If the Russians are willing to do that, which I support, then the Iranians do not need to learn how to enrich. If the Iranians accept that uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there's no need for them to learn how to enrich."
Once they have the uranium, however, how easy is it to weaponize it?
"Bush backs nuclear fuel supply to Iran," from the Jerusalem Post (thanks to the Constantinopolitan Irredentist):
US President George W. Bush said on Monday he supported Russian shipments of nuclear fuel to Iran for civilian power, saying they proved that Teheran has no need to enrich uranium."If the Russians are willing to do that, which I support, then the Iranians do not need to learn how to enrich. If the Iranians accept that uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there's no need for them to learn how to enrich," Bush said
Iran received the first shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia on Monday for its Bushehr reactor, the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported.
Russia has been assisting the Iranians in the construction of the nuclear power plant.
Keeping a happy face on turns for the worst; the carrot wasn't taken, and the stick won't follow.
We have come a long way from the Cuban blockade
Weaponizing fuel makes no sense except for anything but a dirty bomb before it is used in a reactor.
The enrichment level is so low it does not make any sense except for conversion to plutonium.
Why doesn't Bush just send some nukes to Iran as a goodwill gesture and be done with it? At least then the Iranians won't need to bother with processing or manufacturing anything. We're practically ready to do this anyway the way things are going.
Bush is an ignoramus, and a treasonous fool. Thank God his tenure as Ham-Hander-In-Chief is almost up. Hopefully, the West can survive that long.
Choose your candidates wisely in 2008.
holy schnikes! what the f happened to Bush? I was willing to tolerate his "oversight" on the border and his coerced misstep in Iraq, but "Iran-Nukes" is entirely way too far over the line..... I can't fathom what is passing through his synapses at the moment... Or, what dark, shaddy deals are happening behind closed doors.. But, it ain't worth it!! Have people forgot that Iran is the largest supporter of state-terrorism in the world? Have people forgot that Iran with nukes, means Hezbolah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Al Qaeda (yes Al Qaeda!) will have nukes too!!! Wake up! I am totally disgusted by the NIE report and what is going on with Iran in the past few weeks. As an analyst, I can't fathom why we are allowing some politically-drive bureaucrats (ie, NIE writers) to dictate incorrect intel interpretations, and risk nothing less than the destruction of Western civilization??? Where are the Churchill's who will save us from this disaster??????????????????????????? Please help!!!
Power reactor fuel, not nuclear powered ship or submarine fuel, requires additional enrichment. I cannot quantify it any further except to say that my retired nuclear engineer friend tells me it takes a "hell of a lot more enrichment" to make it useful for a weapon. The additional problem is that the uranium in fuel rods must be reprocessed into uranium hexafluoride for use in a centrifuge, then processed back into metallic uranium. If Iran allows international inspectors full access to the fuel cycle, and the fuel rods can be tracked and accounted for, then there is not as much a problem as some alarmists would let you believe. There is a giant however, Iran must allow inspection, if they refuse, then Iran cannot be allowed to have fuel.
Now, a different slant, the possibility of bribery causing inspectors to look the other way, is something that has not been mentioned.
As for spent fuel, it is always hot and must be cooled in a water tank with additional cooling equipment for a long time. Spent fuel can be tracked. Fuel reprocessing is also a major undertaking that cannot be hidden very easily. The fuel rods must be accounted for at every step of the reactor cycle. An empty fuel rod (even if it is filled with lead) cannot be passed off as spent fuel
Iran with power reactor fuel requires close monitoring that I do not believe the UN capable of doing, or Iran even allowing.
I hope that someone in DOE is telling Bush exactly what I have written. If any of Bush's scientific advisors get any more technical, it will put the poor guy to sleep.
SlimGuy, yes there will be plutonium in the spent fuel along with a host of other elements and various isotopes including a lot of uranium. Separating it is a very expensive, complicated process.
Pelayo,
Glad you've got someone reliable to ask these questions!
I have read that the commercial reactors in the U.S. produce plutonium as a contaminant in the fuel rods. After a certain amount is created, the fuel is reprocessed. The plutonium is removed and is used by the government to build warheads; the uranium is used again in fuel assemblies for reactors. Am I reasonably close to reality on this?
livefreeordie!,
There are a lot of other elements in the spent fuel that cannot be used in a reactor or a bomb. Plutonium and uranium cannot be extracted by mechanical means; it requires a chemical process. Fuel rods are not reprocessed in the US at this time. A spent fuel storage facility is being built in Yucca Mtn, Nevada, but there is a reprocessing facility being planned. Jimmy, The Dhimmi, Carter halted fuel reprocessing in 1977. Storage space for spent fuel in the US commercial power plants is an important problem.
Read the History portion of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing
George 'Islam means peace/'I looked into his soul' Bush, mere resident of the white house. Can't expect much from him, but to get so very little...
What has me still concerned is not the fuel the Russians are sending, but what of the fuel mined locally?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/mines.htm
So the question remains, are they or are they not still involved in an enrichment program?
this is not the way to get material for a weapon. bushier is a power reactor. i think sending them fuel to power it is pretty safe. but they could make bomb grade material on their own and that is not safe. they already have a centrifuge program to separate out uranium isotopes so why would they need to look for minute amounts of plutonium in a few, a fixed number, of spent fuel rods? they have a weapons program in the centrifuges, esp. if they make and actually operate 50,000 of them as announced. They have uranium in their national territory and more than enough for bombs. they can mine it all at home. so the key point seems to be that they must not be allowed to enrich. make it clear that they are entitled to the peaceful use of nuclear power. at least no one seems to dispute this notion at this time. if they are to have fuel for their reactor they either import or they enrich. i prefer import. i am ok with import. they must not be allowed to enrich under any circumstances. period.
nabi ZK
...darn and drat...asking to have a power reactor is just not reason enough to clober 'em...but those centrifuges dude, watch out...funny thing is we know that they have 'em but we just really don't know for sure how many...we can only guess...and that is why the nabi, yes that's me in case you didn't know, finds them to be so very very annoying...
"Fuel rods are not reprocessed in the US at this time. A spent fuel storage facility is being built in Yucca Mtn, Nevada, but there is a reprocessing facility being planned. Jimmy, The Dhimmi, Carter halted fuel reprocessing in 1977. Storage space for spent fuel in the US commercial power plants is an important problem."
Pelayo;
True , storage is a major issue that has yet to be fully addressed. If, and when, Yucca ever opens, (current time to do so is around 2020), we will have enough waist material to completely fill it, with waist to spare. Also, the material must be transported from the nuclear reactor site to Yucca, another hazzard on the rails of this country. One event, or attack on this could poison the area of the accident, for many years.
Theft of a shipment is another concern.
Yucca sits on, and was built over a water bed, and is close to a possible Super Volcano, why should anyone worry?
All this with the FIRST long term storage site, with many more needed, at a much faster rate.
Kevin, that is the $64,000,000 question. I have heard nothing about Iran's ability to take Uranium ore and make enriched uranium. If they cannot use ore, they have to get yellowcake from a supplier and turn that into uranium hexafluoride for their centrifuges.
I cannot imagine that Ahmadinijad has been lying all this time about their enrichment of uranium. GlobalSecurity makes me think that they have the facilities to make bomb grade uranium.
DO we believe our intelligence agencies, Israel's, or somebody else?
It's way, way past my bed time -see y'all tomorrow.
sorry to be a spell nag but it's "waste" material, not "waist" material. A belt would be waist material.
damn homophones!
Yes, the sooner G.W.Bush leaves office the better. Of course we might end up with someone even worse but at this point I'm willing to take that chance.
"sorry to be a spell nag but it's "waste" material, not "waist" material. A belt would be waist material."
Posted by: alexon
Thank you for the correction. Sorry for the error in the post.
I'm working on making a belt "waste" material.
I don't know nuclear technology very well, but is it possible to make it sure there is no "hell of a lot more enriched" rod or two "forgotten" among the "ordinary" stuff? You know, human failure, that happens. And I even don't think Russians would care.
Makes me wonder if Bush does want another 11.9. to get more support. Nuked Izrael might make many people change their mind.
Or (and I hope that this might be the more probable explanation) he wants to show another intelligence report later, now with sound evidence, not like in Iraq - that Iran makes nukes, after enriching the ordinary fuel in some secret facility - before he will send troops there.
I believe I mentioned this was coming.
Yeah, USA. (Mental image of the guys at ground zero yelling USA)
It's called stealing the other guys thunder.
Little man says he is only making nuke stuff for power.
Give him stuff he can only use for power.
Now you can effectively tell him in so many words. Stop making the stuff, you already have it.
It's the same justification for the major powers giving the Pali's loads of money to build their country up.
"Shut up and build" otherwise you will look like what you really are for the whole world to see clearly.
"Once they have the uranium, however, how easy is it to weaponize it?..."
...I googled "missing Uranium" and found several stories of missing uranium .....Russia, China, Several African countries , European Countries and even the US have had incidents of Missing Uranium....Much of it weapons grade material....
....despite the "heavy" security surrounding this material, a lot of it just disappears....
...I certainly would not discount the possibility that some of it has ended up in the hands of those seeking it like Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, Yemen, or even Saudi Arabia....(the common denominator is Islam)....
...I certainly would not discount the possibility of a nuclear bomb made with some of this "missing" material being used at some point in the future...either as a real nuclear bomb or maybe in a smaller "dirty bomb" type of weapon designed to strike fear in the populace...
Islam intends to kill you .... and it will use whatever it can get its hands on....legally or illegally....
and we should not help them....no more financial aid to these people...and Ban Muslim Immigration...
Why should we give Iran anything but a hard time?
Pelayo,
Thank you for the information.
We did some test-hole drilling around Yucca Mtn. I'll be very surprised if the facility ever opens due to it being such a political issue. The only thing disposed of at that site is an enormous amount of tax dollars.
As far as processing the fuel from the ground up, there are supposedly some limited ore deposits in Iran.
The reason I asked about the US reprocessing the fuel, is the memory (way back in my mind) of how the Indian's got fuel for their first weapons.
I'll agree that the process isn't cheap, it isn't a fast way for them to accumulate plutonium, but it's obviously doable by relatively low-technology countries. Chemical solvents and machinery to handle it could be bought from North Korea or the Red Chinese. Hell, for all we know the chemicals and equipment could be coming from Russia or Germany!
It'll be very expensive no matter how they do it-same as it was for the U.S. when we constructed the three nuclear weapons during World War 2; Trinity was enormously expensive- but the cost and time involved aren't factors to these people. They're only interested in the end product. The Iranians are hell bent on having nuclear weapons. Whether the fissile material is scavenged from reactor fuel, or enriched from ore, or bought on the black market, or obtained by a combination of methods methods is immaterial: it can't be allowed to happen.
I'll agree with you that under normal circumstances, the reactor fuel would be watched and tracked and would be used for it's intended purposes. A lot of power can be generated and in a normal society it would generally enhance the standard of living. I'm all for it!
These people aren't normal. To me, it's like watching a mentally unbalanced individual who has rage issues. This person has been involved in fights and numerous people have been injured. He's still on the loose, and daily makes threats about doing this or that to harm someone else.
One day, he's spotted shopping in a plumping store where he purchases a bunch of pipe, caps, and nails. The next day, he's in a sporting goods store trying to buy gunpowder. He says he only wants it to reload some shotgun shells.Obviously, a lot of people suspect otherwise and try to stop this guy from buying what he needs to build a sack of pipe bombs. Along the way they stop him from buying loaded shotgun shells, and from buying potassium nitrate. Granted, it'd be better to simply remove the threat from society, but as it is you're trying to "contain" the threat without infringing on his rights. After all, only a tiny percentage of mentally unbalanced people are a threat to society.
I view the mad mullah's the exact same way. I like nuclear power and wish there was more of it. However, I don't trust these bearded bastards any further then I could throw one. Looking at their past history, the knowledge that the Russians are supplying them with refined nuclear fuel in any shape or form looks like a really bad idea. Personally, I wouldn't allow them enough nuclear material to build a smoke detector.
Right or wrong, it's just my point of view.
Thank you again for the information.
My guess is that Isreal will probably hit Iran sooner as the build up of delivered fuel. The critical level of supplies will be reached sooner with this development. Russia probably still has a lot of info coming out of it into Isreal. Since they won't be impeeded my Condi Rice and the US state dept, the Isrealis can hit Iran very quickly. Iran will not hit back militarily.
livefreeordie!, Fifteen years ago they said that the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) would never open, but it did. Maybe Yucca Mtn will. A lot of nuclear power plants in the US have had to build additional spent fuel tanks. The original ones are full.
There is a lot of missing (or stolen?) uranium, and who knows where it will show up.
Hi Pelayo,
Very true about the waste-fuel materials building up. I'm not sure what the answer is concerning long-term storage.
We were involved in test drilling locally when the idea was to place radioactive waste in piercement salt domes in the interior salt dome basin of the Gulf Coast. Those ideas fell apart due to political pressure, perceived transportation hazards and security issues, uncertainly concerning the structural stability and continuity and areal extent of the salt, as well as potential for groundwater contamination. They drilled so many test holes I don't see how you could keep anything in there and not expect leaks!
The Nevada site was chosen because it was viewed to be exactly the opposite in terms of structural stability, ground water, etc. Studies were done...concerns were raised again and again, and political pressures only made problems worse. To be honest with you, sorting between the truth, and the truth as seen by the greenies, the locals, and the politicos is almost impossible.
I don't know what's going to happen. A long-term fuel storage site is desperately needed, but eveyone says "Not in my back yard". Once you add public sentiment to a limited number of sites that meet the geologic criteria needed for long-term safe storage...you get about to the point we are today. You have nothing.
I think Dubya has gone mushy in the head.
I think Dubya has gone mushy in the head.
Posted by: joeblough at December 18, 2007 11:33 AM
Why dubya? Even his father was in wahhabbi back-pockets. Only, Americans were couldn't see the reality.
Really, fooling Americans is just too easy. For a true American. Tom Tancredo, before it is too late: http://www.teamtancredo.typepad.com
Just how mushy in the head has dubya gone?
Hopefully, these nukes aren't headed for iran?
Far fetched?
dubya is capable of anything, and everything, that rings of either madness or outright stupidity -- even brazenly treasonous.
"I don't know what's going to happen. A long-term fuel storage site is desperately needed, but eveyone says "Not in my back yard". Once you add public sentiment to a limited number of sites that meet the geologic criteria needed for long-term safe storage...you get about to the point we are today. You have nothing."
Posted by: livefreeordie!
The nuclear industry in this country is trying to fast track, building more reactors, looking into Breeders & reprocessing, all at a much faster pace.
If this continues, the storage issue will only get worse, forcing the people to allow storage sites for waste to be built, like it or not.
To reprocess is to say "cost effective" has no meaning, I think Carter had this a reason to halt the work. Same with Breeders.