Of course, Al-Qaeda has done this before -- most notably with the March 11, 2004 bombings in Madrid that led to the election of the hopeless Zapatero. But we have also seen -- many times over the years -- an "uptick" in activity that led to nothing. "Spies Warn That Al Qaeda Aims for October Surprise: Intercepted Messages Asking Local Cells To Be Prepared for Imminent Instructions," by Eli Lake for the New York Sun, September 22 (thanks to James):
WASHINGTON — In the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks on Western targets, America's counterterrorism community is warning that Al Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections in November.Call it Osama bin Laden's "October surprise." In late August, during the weekend between the Democratic and Republican conventions, America's military and intelligence agencies intercepted a series of messages from Al Qaeda's leadership to intermediate members of the organization asking local cells to be prepared for imminent instructions.
An official familiar with the new intelligence said the message was picked up in multiple settings, from couriers to encrypted electronic communications to other means. "These are generic orders," the source said — a distinction from the more specific intelligence about the location, time, and method of an attack. "It was, 'Be on notice. We may call upon you soon.' It was sent out on many channels."
Also, Yemen's national English-language newspaper is reporting that a spokesman for Yemen's Islamic Jihad, the Qaeda affiliate that claimed credit for last week's American embassy bombing in Sa'naa, is now publicly threatening to attack foreigners and high government officials if American and British diplomats do not leave the country.
Mr. bin Laden has sought to influence democratic elections in the past. On March 11, 2004, Al Qaeda carried out a series of bombings on Madrid commuter trains. Three days later, the opposition and anti-Iraq war Socialist Workers Party was voted into power.
In the week before the 2004 American presidential election, Mr. bin Laden recorded a video message to the American people promising repercussions if President Bush were re-elected. In later messages, Al Qaeda's leader claimed credit for helping elect Mr. Bush in 2004. Last year in Pakistan, Qaeda assassins claimed the life of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister who returned to her native country in a bid for re-election....
Too good to be true. This would usher McCain, the lesser of two evils in my opinion, directly into the White House.
Oh yeah, if that happens, Hussein is "fini."
Zapatero hopeless? That is total crap.
I'm from Spain, and boy I can tell you I'm happy we got rid of incompetent lying corrupt cheating murderous fascist Aznar.
Do you remember the oil tanker that poured oil all over the northern Spanish coast while the government laughed and joked about it on radio and tv? Even Bush didn't make fun of what was going on during Katrina.
Or how about when our soldiers died in an aircrash on the way back from Afghanistan and the minister told the forensic team that they didn't need to waste time identifying bodies, just put any name with any corpse and that's enough?
Or the dozens of corruption scandals, such as the mills that were burnt to claim insurance by one of Aznar's right hand men.
Or how Aznar and his cronies tried to lie about the Madrid bombings and blame it on ETA because the opposition's argument that going to war in Iraq would cause further terrorism would look more realistic?
Or how Aznar and his government never appeared in Parliament (even though they are members of parliament) to debate with the opposition because his party had a majority.
Zapatero is not a charismatic speaker, but he's honest, hard-working, there's not a hint of corruption about him or his party, and he actually cares about the Spanish people. To call him hopeless shows a severe lack of integrity.
Or perhaps you measure people's political worth simply by how much they hate Muslims?
antinazi - I concur on Aznar/Zapatero. Aznar was a complete disaster, for the reasons you list. It shows the dillemma the West is facing - where the issue of the Islamic threat is concerned, most candidates are tweedledum and tweedledee. Apart from his seemingly joking "Bomb, bomb, bomb,... bomb bomb Iran" comment, I am not sure that McCain is much different on this issue than Obama. Sarkozy is probably "better" than Chirac or Segolene Royal, but so far has not been the leader on this that is needed (end Muslim immigration, stand up for Bardot, crack down on crime with deportations, etc). I am not sure what it will take for people to wake up on this. If 9/11, 3/11, 7/7 and Beslan weren't enough, what is? Where's a good old reactionary, nationalist, fascist uprising when you need one?
As for OBL, I have thought for years that he will do anything to give Bush a memorable going away present. Time is running out - let's see what he comes up with...
Antinazi writes:
"Or perhaps you measure people's political worth simply by how much they hate Muslims?"
--------------------------
I value leadership over political worth. Political worth generally correlates with "popularity". And popularity isn't always a good indicator of quality leadership.
Also, "hating muslims" is not the same as accurately understanding islam. I want leaders that understand and recognize the true nature of islam.
When there is an increase of terrorist 'chatter' that leads to nothing, I think investigators should look at moon phases, time of the month, seasons of the year etc.
There may be such a thing as male PMS that particularly effects muslims during 'certain' times of the month. This may be why Allah is the moon god.
One of the moons symbols is reproduction, and menstrual cycles have everything to do with that.
So the frustrated muslim 'terrorist' in his PMS cycle reaches out on the internet to other affected muslims and they 'chatter a lot'. Leading to no action, just feeling a little better knowing that they are not alone...
Al Qaeda is wasting its time if it thinks an "October surprise" will mean anything to Americans. More than likely (judging from what I've heard in 2004 and this year) Democrats are likely to give the credit(?) for any attack to the Bush administration.
They think Bush brought down the Pentagon and hit the towers and planned ahead of time to knock down building seven in the WTC (thus, planting all those explosives the weekend before 9/11) and is ready to attack America yet again if it means he can become president for life. They see an October attack as a ploy to cancel the November elections. If Obama loses, it will be proof that the Bush machine deliberately "stole" the election with a terror attack.
From above...I'm from Spain, and boy I can tell you I'm happy we got rid of incompetent lying corrupt cheating murderous fascist Aznar
I can't predict Spain's future...I hope it is peaceful, happy, and prosperous.
The hope always is replacing a corrupt leader with
some one else will fix problems. Often they fix problems by creating others. So that no real gain was made for the populace.
If the new guy is soft on Islam or caves in to muslim desires of reclaiming 'their Spain', by force or any other way, he has lost ground for Spain, not maintained it...But all that is in the future somewhere...We will see what we will see, but what we have seen so far is that Islam
wants what Islam wants, and the new guy will have to deal with that...We, especially you, will see how he does it...
If Obama loses, it will be proof that the Bush machine deliberately "stole" the election with a terror attack.
Posted by: PMK
i can see it now. a muslim squinting at the hanging chads at the democrat headquarters saying, "we got a vote for hussein here!"
As I've said before, I don't think it would have the desired effect in the U.S., but that's not to say these megalomaniacal arse-wipes won't try it.
As to the 'hanging chads' concern, in the words of the 'holy one' "Let's be clear" .... we have here the dirtiest campaign run by what has proven to be the dirtiest candidate for POTUS in recent memory, eclipsing even the filthy bill clinton. There is nothing he and his collaborators, both highly visible (e.g.,new duranty times) and behind the scenes (e.g., ACORN) won't do to steal this election. It's going to be a regular barnyard wallow.
An October Surprise from the jihadists?
Title of the article.
Well, how about we beat them to the punch with an October surprise for the jihadists?
Or perhaps you measure people's political worth simply by how much they hate Muslims?
Posted by: antinazi at September 24, 2008 9:53 AM
No, it's by how much they hate Islam, which is the same as Fascism and Naziism.
But, "antinazi" hasn't reappeared, so what the hey.
Too good to be true. This would usher McCain, the lesser of two evils in my opinion, directly into the White House.
It is too good to be true. Al Qaeda isn't stupid enough to hand the election to McCain this way. (In 2004, they were stupid enough to warn that they might not attack the states that voted for Kerry. Since they learned that this tactic only made people more likely to vote for Bush, we shouldn't count on their making a similar mistake this time. Americans don't respond the way Spaniards do.)
Zapatero is not a charismatic speaker, but he's honest, hard-working, there's not a hint of corruption about him or his party, and he actually cares about the Spanish people. To call him hopeless shows a severe lack of integrity.
For all his faults, Zapatero did try to shut up Hugo Chávez (though His Catholic Majesty did so even better when he asked Chávez, "¿Por qué no te callas?").
Why would the jihadists want McCain to win?
Of course there are other October Surprises mentioned in the blogs -- Either Bin Laden is caught, look at all the activity in the Afghan-Pakistan border area, or an attack on Iran. Both would probably assure a McCain win.