Iran's new missile brings Israel within reach

For the record, the US Defense Dept says the test was a failure.

But there is no doubt the Iranians will master solid-fuel technology soon...and Russia can go suck an egg; missile defense is an imperative to avoid the threat of nuclear blackmail.

PS - The threat is not just to Europe and Israel...ICBMs are just one step away from IRBMs.

Someday, Iran could have an ICBM capacity that rivals our own.

Pause to think...

http://www.theworldwithoutus.com/theworldwithoutus_trailer_1HQ.htm

"the Iranian-made surface-to-surface Sejil missile had "extremely high capabilities" and was only intended for defensive purposes."

Like wiping out the Zionist Aggressors in Israel.

From article: Maybe we'll see about that. Or maybe we will give the Thug-In-Chief all sorts of wonderful gifts to make him play more nicely with his neighbors.

I'm sure Beasty Boy Ahmadinejad, would appreciate gifts in the form of tribute from filthy kufrs. That is only right and proper...But don't forget Beasty's theme song, 'I got Mahdi on my mind'.
And it takes a good deal of chaos to get him out of that well.

I don't think the golden throat tones of President Obama (PBUH), will sway Beasty and the Mullahs.
They may hum a few bars but they wont join him in song...

You see this is how 'talk' will work. Every few months there will be something new to talk about.

Crap. The Russians offered to build the missile shield along with us, placed in Azerbaidjan, to protect us against the Iranian missiles.

That just might have been useful, and good for Israel, too.

The United States is planning to install a defensive shield in central Europe against missiles it says could be fired by states such as Iran."

A "defensive shield" may be built IF Russian objections (and possibly second thoughts in central Europe) are overcome. And it may be built IF the next Administration understands their significance. And it may be built IF the money is allocated.

But how long would that "defensive shield" take to build? Five years? Four years? Three years? Two? How long does the world of sane Infidels have to protect itself by building a "defensive shield" and would that "defensive shield" stop Iran from sending missiles Israel-wards? Would it stop Iran from sending missiles toward Western ships in the Gulf?

There is a question of time. There is a question of tactics.

Surely it makes far more sense to take the Islamic Republic of Iran at its malevolent word (and its malevolent deeds, over nearly 30 years), and for America alone, or Israel alone(instead of holding Israel back), or America and Israel in concert (a concert that may mostly be performed behind the curtain, not in front of it), or by NATO members together, an effort not -- as it is so idiotically described -- to "invade" Iran, for a quick if widespread attack on nuclear-project installations does not constitute an "inivasion."

Nor would this be an attack intended to change the regime in Iran. But such an attack on the nuclear project, if devasteating enough, would of course be followed by an initial hyperventilating rally-round-the-flag phase of misplaced loyalty, even by Iranian enemies of the present Iranian regime, suddenly turning into mindless "Iranian patriots." But after that phase, another would come, as the fact of the failure, the fact of the tremendous waste of Iranian resources, the sheer humiliation, would sink in to the Iranian population in Iran and in exile, and their anger would shift from those who had attacked to those who had, in crazed thought, evil word, and monstrous deeds over the past 30 years, made such an attack inevitable. And when the mood in Iran shifts, that will contribute to the welcome downfall of the regime.

Three words: THAAD, COIL (airborne oxygen-iodine laser), ARROW.

Mazel Tov.

What I don't get is why spending money on a missile shield when a handful of bunker busters solve the problem altogether.

The West f4cked up as usual.

"He said it had a range of close to 2,000 km (1,200 miles)..."

I heard on Fox News Radio last night that the actual distance it flew was 2 HUNDRED miles, and then it choked out. It's just like Iran to lie about their missile technology.

Posted by: Cornelius at November 13, 2008 8:54 AM

That's the world's problem, not ours. It won't matter one whit to us once we're gone.

I believe that Israel has no choice but to exercise the "Tancredo option". Israel knows that it cannot sustain an armed conflict with Iran that naturally would involve its hostile neighbors in the Levant who would spontaneously join the fray if Iran attacks Israel. So Israel's only hope of survival would be to enlist the participation, not just the aid, of the rest of the non-Muslim world. A sure way of doing that would be to erase Mecca, Medina and Qom, a capability that Israel does possess. The Muslim world would be forced by its own ideology to rise up and engage in hostilities against the entire non-Muslim world and we would finally be in the unambiguous fight to the finish.

The capacity of the non-Muslim world to prosecute a global war of attrition is thousands of times greater than all the Muslim countries combined so the outcome of such a conflict is not in doubt. It will also certainly be more catastrophic than WWII in human terms for no other reason than the Muslim world is permeated with many more suicidal fanatics than the Axis powers of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan possessed. In the end, when the mujahadeen are reduced to fighting with swords, spears, rocks and bows, it will still be necessary for our troops to exterminate them with modern weaponry.

Though victory of the non-Muslim world is assured, woe to the 20th century generation that allowed the jinn of jihad to escape from the bottle to which it had been confined by our ancestors with cannons for more than a thousand years. Woe to us. Woe to us.

Defense against missiles or other purely defensive means only gets you so far if you have a dedicated enemy. Iran sure looks dedicated to me.

Remember Masada. The Romans took a long time but eventually breached the fortress on the mountain.

There is only one answer. Bomb Irans Nuke facilities with bunkerbusters and maybe take out a few other targets as well.

The capacity of the non-Muslim world to prosecute a global war of attrition is thousands of times greater than all the Muslim countries combined so the outcome of such a conflict is not in doubt.

SaracensAtTheGates,
That's not true. Our victory is not assured. We may have the capacity but we lack the will.
A determined minority can easily overcome a passive majority and there is no indication yet that the majority of the West has any desire to do more than go along to get along.
The outcome of the conflict is very much in doubt if we remain willing to fight with one hand tied behind our back, if at all.

Hugh,
I was with you until your last paragraph.

This next phase in which the realization of the tremendous waste that has taken place occurs among the Iranian population would likely not happen. I see a theme in much that you write that promotes notions that there are things we can do, actions we might take, that will start a process that will reduce the threat from the Islamic world. I mean a process where we magically find the first domino to topple and the rest fall as a matter of course.

I'm not trying to quote you directly , but in general notions like pulling out and letting shi'a - sunni friction distract and occupy the jihadists. I'm sure that would take place to some degree but I don't believe it would lead to an end to the threat. Or todays idea that if we (the west) directly attacks Iran's nuclear project that the final outcome will be homesprung anger toward the regime ending in the downfall of the regime. These ideas seem to me to be so much wishful thinking.

I see the threat of Islamic jihad more like a guided missile, you might knock it off course momentarily - but it will return to that course and continue inexorably - unless destroyed. We can't expect to destroy the ideology of Islam, but it would be good to take away its power base - oil moolah. I see jihad kind of like the speach Kyle Reese made to Sarah Conner in the first Terminator movie when he was describing to her and Dr. Silberman what a Terminator was.
"You still don't get it, do you? He'll find her! That's what he does! It's *all* he does! You can't stop him! He'll wait for you! He'll reach down her throat and tear her f**kin' heart out! "

"It will only land on the heads of those enemies ... who want to make an aggression and invade the Islamic Republic," said Najjar, who did not mention any country by name....

Stop with the self-absorption. No one in the West has any desire to invade your land of fear. We have better things to do. Iranians who want to be free of you will have to do it the hard way.
All Iranians will be called to account for the actions of the mullahs if worse comes to worst. You won't evade responsibility for the actions of the leaders you have sanctioned for almost three decades. You're as responsible for your leadership as we are for ours.

There is no way to stop this program. Iran is intent on gaining this option. Bombing will only delay it. One would have to hope that Iran either ceases to exist as a islamic nation, or it suddenly became way too expensive. And with the Pak already having several nukes and on the verge of collapse, what assurances do we have that even one nuke doesn't fall into the Iran's hands?(Now the Pak scenario also means that some islamic group could get it's hands on a nuke or two, but this discussion is centered around the Iranian missile and by proxy the US missile defense program.) This test, failure that it was, is a clear indicator that the missile defense system we are working on is very much needed. A situation like this demands that the US, and the West in general, needs to develop all techs and engage in any activity that will at least delay the Iranian programs.

PMK wrote:

That's not true. Our victory is not assured. We may have the capacity but we lack the will. A determined minority can easily overcome a passive majority and there is no indication yet that the majority of the West has any desire to do more than go along to get along. The outcome of the conflict is very much in doubt if we remain willing to fight with one hand tied behind our back, if at all.

An exercise of the Tancredo Option would result in a general armed uprising of the entire Muslim world against the entire non-Muslim world. They would have no choice. It is the foundation of their ideology. It would not be a stealth jihad. It would be the violent killing kind of jihad. It would be against ALL of dar al-Harb. It will not be a question of muddled multiculturalism. It will be our will to live vs. their will to die. They will get their wish. Many of us will lose ours.

"Pause to think" . . .Posted by: Cornelius @ November 13, 2008 8:54 AM

Interesting and worth recommending. Thank you.

Hugh's most cogent point - if I may paraphrase - is that the missile shield is treating the symptom, but the disease of proliferation will role merrily along.

My Pop - a good, Republican man - recently told me in his infinitely pragmatic manner that "were just going to have live with" an Iranian bomb.

Would that we could.

It's not just Iran folks...it's what comes next; the Saudis and Egyptians will surely follow suit to deter Iran...after that, Libya will want the bomb to deter Egypt, Algeria to deter Libya, Morocco to deter Algeria...you get the idea...

How long before Qatar, Bahrain & the UAE will - instead of relying on an unreliable America for their security, also want the capability to protect their precious resources?

How long after that before non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda get their hands on the technology...and then groups that don't yet exist...it will be exactly the world that AQ Kahn envisioned when he started this sinister process.

And how long after that will it be before the American homeland suffers a tragedy of unimaginable proportions.

We either play the bully and draw a line in the sand now, or prepare for the worst...

...only prob is, no-one, not Bush, certainly not Obama, not even the Israelis, appear to be up to the task.

A solid fuel Rocket on a launcher, capable of being loaded on a Cargo Ship, sounds a bit useful.

Failure of this "Test" depends upon the eye of the beholder.

Tracking Radars would know where that Rocket would have been expected to land, had the flight not ended at 200 miles. Just where would that have been?

Lori B. - It does indeed, look like their initial test fell short of it's intended range. However, for the first test of a new line of solid fuel rockets they didn't do too bad at all. Remember the early days of the U.S. rocket program? Most of our rockets failed, too. These guys aren't stupid. Remember, most of them got their educations in the same places as our scientists and engineers, and given enough time and testing they'll get it right.

Modern rocket technology was initially developed under Hitler, and we picked it up after importing the German rocket scientists who developed the V-1 and V-2 rockets (von Braun et al.) following the capture of Peenemunde right at the end of WW II. Lesson - it's a mistake to mindlessly conflate dislike of your enemy with his being stupid or incompetent.

An exercise of the Tancredo Option would result in a general armed uprising of the entire Muslim world against the entire non-Muslim world. They would have no choice. It is the foundation of their ideology.

Saracensatthegates,

Precisely. It is THEIR ideology. I question whether or not WE have the will to fight back. Our ideology does NOT call for us to kill all who don't believe as we do, nor does it call for us to neutralize them. Too many people in the West would rather go along to get along. They have been conditioned by decades of PC at all levels. Even without PC, it goes against our grain to kill them all.

The Muslim world would rise up. Would we fight back? (Not people on this site, but our societies) We didn't go after them when they attacked us directly and deliberately without provocation and without warning. How many people in the West would say we had this one coming as well?
I love Tancredo and I want his option exercised as well for one very un-Christian reason - revenge. The idea that it will lead to a worldwide conflagration between Muslims and non-Muslims from which we will emerge victorious is questionable.

Wait. Obama was elected. I thought everything was going to be peachy now and it was Kumbai-ya time. My head is going to explode from cognitive dissonance.

Eastview,

The first thing in any conflict is not to underestimate your opponent.

"Tehran's Sharif University,"

"Remember, most of them got their educations in the same places as our scientists and engineers,"

This may be true some of the time, but not all of the time:

An Iranian scientist has won the Young Scientist Prize in Particle Physics at an international contest on pure and applied physics.

The International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP) has chosen Dr Yasaman Farzan as this year's top scientist, ISNA reported.

The prize has been established recently and is awarded every two years to a young scientist who has made greatest achievements in the field of practical or theoretical physics, ISNA reported on Friday.

The nominees for the prize must not have more than eight years experience of research work after their PhD.

Farzan, educated in Tehran's Sharif University, is to receive the award at the 34th International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2008) which is to be held in Philadelphia, USA on July 30th-August 5th 2008.

The IUPAP prize includes an IUPAP medal, a certificate citing the recipient's scientific achievements and a honorary cash award which will be presented at the 34th International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2008) Philadelphia, USA, July 30th-August 5th, 2008.

As Cornelius said "Pause to think" . . .

Truth
Abdullah Mikail

PMK,

"Precisely. It is THEIR ideology."

No, it is your twisted opinion of what you "think" "their" ideology is based upon because of the very few of "them" who engage in political violence and try to use religion as a cover.

Write responsibly.

Truth
Abdullah Mikail

Abdullah Mikail,

Yes, for Yasaman Farzan to have received such an award is an honor to her, her university (Sharif is known as the MIT of Iran), and to Iran itself. However, I think it is still true that most of the current generation of mid- to high-level scientists in Iran received their training in the West. That is slowly changing, as for example it did with Japan and China in previous decades. It has been some time since Japanese students were in abundance in American universities (I am speaking of science and engineering), and I see the same thing now happening with Chinese students, as earlier generations return to their countries and establish their own universities and research institutions. These days we have an abundance of students from India, and it is expected that as India continues to develop their own universities the number of Indian students coming to the West will eventually also dry up. Iran was actually a bit farther along in developing its own scientific infrastructure than even China was in the 60's and 70's, but the number of students to the West dried up after 1979 and they have since fallen behind.

Exceptional scientists like Farzan pop up in all cultures, and are typically so far above the rest of the herd that their nationality, or culture of birth, or where they received their training, is usually irrelevant. Think Ramanujan, for example. Certainly Farzan's science is independent of such trivia. For those who might be interested, her home page is http://physics.ipm.ac.ir/people/farzan/

BTW, check out the faculty of Sharif's physics department at http://physics.sharif.edu/, where Farzan got her degree.

Just under the faculty names beginning with 'A' we have

Mohammad Akhavan, Professor. Ph.D., Notre Dame.
Omid Akhavan, Asst. Prof., Ph.D., Sharif, Iran.
Ahmad Amjadi, Asst. Prof., Ph.D., Michigan State.
Abbas Anvari, Assoc. Prof., Ph.D., Chalmerse, Sweden.
Farhad Ardalan, Professor. Ph.D., Columbia.
Hessamaddin Arfaei, Professor. Ph.D., UC Berkeley.

That's 5 out of 6 in the list with PhDs from the West, most likely before 1979. Akhavan is an Asst. Prof. and from his picture it looks like he got his degree fairly recently, suggesting his entire academic experience occurred after 1979. If you scan the rest of the faculty list you can see these results are typical.

Also, BTW, if you check the science/math faculties at universities in Saudi Arabia you'll find the vast majority of them got their PhDs in the West, too, as is also the case with any university throughout the Islamic world.

Or they can just STOP us by laughter?

Amazing how delusional President "eyes to close together" Ahmadinejad really is compared to any Western Nation militarily. Iraq & Iran were throwing blows for 10 years & the USA knocked out Iraq in 5 days.

Time for Israel to give him a black eye & shut his big mouth. I'm thinking a nuke or two would work to keep the area of the Iranian test sites closed to humans for a few hundred years?

More on Yasaman Farzan, from her site.

"...I went to Trieste, Italy and participated in the entrance exam of PhD program at SISSA (International School for Advanced Studies). I was among the eight students who passed the exam. In first year we passed five courses and only in the second year, we started working on our thesis. I chose neutrino physics as my research area. I was lucky enough to be accepted as a student by Prof. A. Yu. Smirnov who is a leading neutrino physicist. After one year, in 1380, my husband got a Post-doc position at Stanford and I accompanied him to the USA. Before going to the USA, we had correspondence with the head of the theory group of Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), Prof. Michael Peskin. He encouraged me to complete my thesis as a long term visitor at their institute. While in the USA, I kept in touch with my supervisor and wrote more papers together and at the same time I benefited from the outstanding scientific atmosphere at SLAC. Although I had attended several courses on field theory and supersymmetry since the last year of my undergraduate course, asking questions and learning the subtleties of these topics from M. Peskin, who is the author of arguably the best field theory text book, was an opportunity that I will always be proud of. In 1383, we returned to Italy and I defended my thesis. Although I had got post-doc position from several institutes around the world (such as UCLA, Hawaii Univ., Saclay in France) I preferred to come back to Iran and work at IPM, where I am currently an assistant professor..."

So, Abdullah, she got her PhD from Trieste, Italy (one of the top schools for theoretical physics in the world), after spending a lot of time at SLAC (Stanford Linear Accelerator) in Palo Alto. Not exactly a homegrown Iranian product, as you seemed to be wanting to suggest in your note above.

Game, set, match to Eastview.

Abdullah didn't do his homework (as usual).

Eastview,

I concede on that. (Cornelius, such expresssion of sophomoric pride!)

Yes she did not get her Phd from Sharif, and that doesn't diminish her accomplishment at Sharif where she teaches and researches and where she won the prize.

"Seek knowledge even unto China..." the point is they are there and they are achieving and they are the ones you are scoffing at.

The Iranians were not as fortunate as we were in inheriting the Nazi rocket program and scientists work after WWII. You might say they are starting from scratch.

The odd thing is a few of you are high fiving yourselves...in this context, isn't that kind of stupid? Seeing that the highest trained physicists are working there and teaching there?

"Pause to think" Cornelius "Pause to think"

Abdullah Mikail

"...that doesn't diminish her accomplishment at Sharif where she teaches and researches and where she won the prize."
Abdullah Mikail

Exactly right. I am not scoffing at her in any way, for she is obviously a brilliant theoretical physicist. I salute her achievements as an individual, which transcend issues of nation or culture, regardless of where she happens to be.

It is possible to admire technical achievements while condemning the political uses to which they may be put. It is in this sense that I can admire Iranian achievements in science and technology, including their newly developed missile systems, especially considering the difficult conditions these people work under. But at the same time I wouldn't hesitate an instant in extending support to Israel if it detected preparations by Iran for an attack, which President Nutjob keeps shooting off his mouth about doing, and decided to take pre-emptive action to destroy those same missle systems.

The Iranians were not as fortunate as we were in inheriting the Nazi rocket program and scientists work after WWII. You might say they are starting from scratch.
Posted by: Abdullah Mikail

Yes, we inherited Werner Von Braun from the Germans. We already had our own Robert Goddard.

From Farzan's blurb about herself:

"in 1380....in 1383"

And what year was Dr. Peskin living in? Or the physicists in Trieste?

These dates are obviously AH, not CE.