The smoking gun. "Secret document exposes Iran's nuclear trigger," by Catherine Philp in The Times, December 14 (thanks to Kris):
Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.The notes, from Iran's most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.
An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 -- specifically, work on a neutron initiator.
The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan's bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.
"Although Iran might claim that this work is for civil purposes, there is no civil application," said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, which has analysed hundreds of pages of documents related to the Iranian programme. "This is a very strong indicator of weapons work."
The documents have been seen by intelligence agencies from several Western countries, including Britain. A senior source at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that they had been passed to the UN's nuclear watchdog.
A Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokeswoman said yesterday: "We do not comment on intelligence, but our concerns about Iran's nuclear programme are clear. Obviously this document, if authentic, raises serious questions about Iran's intentions."
Responding to The Times' findings, an Israeli government spokesperson said: "Israel is increasingly concerned about the state of the Iranian nuclear programme and the real intentions that may lie behind it."...
Mr Fitzpatrick said: "Is this the smoking gun? That's the question people should be asking. It looks like the smoking gun. This is smoking uranium."
Imagine if Charles Manson had a nuclear weapon. The leadership of Iran is essentially sort of like a Charles Manson with the capability of building Nuclear weapons. Honestly can Charley get the big one? Helterskelter anyone?
In case anyone has illusions that Iran can be stopped, dispel them. Even if Israel or America attacks, the know-how is there and the facilities are spread far and wide. We could set them back a few months with a single attack, but we'd have to bomb them into the stone-age over a period of weeks to really stop them...and folks, that ain't gonna happen.
Meanwhile, how about that vaunted CIA intelligence estimate back in '07...declaring that Iran had abandoned the nuclear program in '03. Coupled with the non-existent WMD stockpiles in Iraq, the CIA is batting 1000 as of late. Both estimates were largely political, the latter to justify America's invasion of Iraq in the aftermath of 9-11, and the former, to apologize for it.
What a fucking mess!
Mr. Obama, these are the first fruits of your new diplomatic approach. I hope that you savor it.
At this rate, the United States will look like Sheila Tate before long.
We will see a nuclear exchange down there, if this is allowed to happen. The time for sanctions is truly past now, if it was in fact ever a viable response.
"but we'd have to bomb them into the stone-age over a period of weeks to really stop them" .....Cornelius
Putting Iran back into in the stone age works for me.
"This is smoking uranium"
And smoking uranium is not good for one's health.
Worry,
No question....the whole sanctions process has become a total farce. They may have worked 2 years ago (and that's a big "may"), but the nuclear genie is essentially out of the bottle.
Spot on,
The tragedy of the Iranian bomb is not just that the mullahs will have it (as bad as that is)...but that it will be a green light for Egypt, the Saudis, probably the Turks, and eventually even minor states (and perhaps Hezbollah) to acquire their own. In essence, the post-war, non-proliferation regimen is on its death-bed.
Look for countries outside the region to then follow suit...even South American states like Venezuela and Brazil. It'll be a 'brave new world'...where tin-horn, third-world despots will be nuclear powers.
Boom goes London
Boom Pariee
More room for the ummah
More room for me
The kuffars all hate us
We're so paranoid
Let's drop the big one
And have some jihad fun!
(Apologies to Randy Newman)
"The tragedy of the Iranian bomb is not just that the mullahs will have it (as bad as that is)...but that it will be a green light for Egypt, the Saudis, probably the Turks, and eventually even minor states (and perhaps Hezbollah) to acquire their own"
Cornelius,
What makes you think that Ahmadinejad and the mad Shi'ites will allow any other Islamic state the time to nuke up?
With Russia's backing of Iran, Obama-the-Pussy in the White House and a Europe completely devoid of any backbone, there is nothing to stop Iran from uniting Islam in the Middle East under Shi'ite leadership when Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
George Bush did Islam a magnificent service in the cause of a united Islamic Ummah by removing Saddam Hussein, although even Saddam might have caved to Iran under the threat of nuclear obliteration.
In this very trying time, we affirm that islam is a religion of peace, and that we will join together with our muslim brothers and the international community to root out these extremists once and for all, and prevent horrendous tragedies like this from ever occurring again. To that end, we announce the formation of a joint middle eastern task force including the US, UK, Syria, Egypt and our staunch ally Saudi Arabia.
-- How the Obama administration would respond if Iran nuked someone
Looks like a duck.
Walks like a duck.
Quacks like a duck.
And it has the bomb!
But don't worry. Our alleged representatives in DC, London and Paris will take absolutely no physical ACTION to remove this threat.
We can count on them to keep us supplied with plenty of really high quality words and slogans.
Besides, there's no sense in surrendering to the Persians just yet. Better to wait until they actually KILL the Jews before making serious surrender plans.
And we all know there's no sense taking risky, costly precautions until you're absolutely 100% scientifically certain that you have a problem.
Unlike global warming.
Now hot weather ... there's a problem where it's better to err on the side of caution. Can't afford to wait on that one.
But nukes? What's a few nukes?
Mike,
There will be no more Muslim unity when Iran gets the bomb than when Pakistan got it. Iraq and perhaps small states like Bahrain and the UAE will re-orient themselves towards Tehran, but even this is in doubt. I just don't see a wholesale change in regional alignments; Shia-Sunni doctrinal imperatives - as well as latent nationalism - preclude such a development.
What I DO see is a new and dramatic impetus for proliferation. The Saudis and Egyptians have their own programs, which will be put into over-drive after the Iranian acquisition (if they haven't been already). Allies of Iran like Syria and Hezbollah will either be brought under the Iranian nuclear umbrella...or more likely, given nuclear weapons outright. Iran would much rather have a nuclear exchange between Damascus and Tel Aviv or south Lebanon and Tel Aviv than between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
I will bet we see a successful revolution in Iran before the crazies get a chance to light the blue touchpaper and retire to a safe distance.
It amazes me how much the educated people that help run this country can be so ignorant to what the Iranians are doing. Iran has it out for the United States. We support Iran's number one enemy; Israel. In addition, they hate us for the backing of the Shaw. Ever since the Supreme Leader Khomeini took over and made the country a Islamic Republic, they have been hell bent on the destruction of Israel, and the United States. Iran see President Obama as former President Jimmy Carter. Those of you who are old enough, know what happened during the Carter administration. Iran has been give a early Christmas present with the election of Obama. Iran knows that Obama is weak; and they are going to take advantage of this. Be not surprised that Iran will announce they have the bomb. The day that Iran announces they have the bomb. The world will change just like it did after 9-11.
How about helping Those Iranian Youth which make %65 of the Population to get rid of Those British Made Terrorist Mullahs?
Cornelius,
Your theory is very likely if Israel or the US does not act. The downward spiral of events in the middle east would likely lead to the elimination of western civilization because the West has probably lost its will to survive real horrific war, while the middle east thrives on horrific warfare. Here is another equally dreadful possibility.
Netanyahu has said that if Iran gets the bomb, investment in Israel will drop to zero, immigration to Israel will cease, and Israelis will begin leaving the country. In other words, it would be the beginning of the end for Israel. Netanyahu believes that Iran will indeed nuke Israel if it gets the chance. While Israel prepares for an Iranian strike, other key top Israeli officials have recently said, "December is the money month" and "We will wait until Christmas" when speaking about Iran. These same officials have also said that Israel can and will attack Iran if Iran continues to acquire nukes, and that Israel has the means to get the job done. If Iran and the “peace loving” neighbors of Israel get totally out of hand, Israel would, if necessary go the nuke route.
All the while, our dear B. Hussein is dropping like a rock in the polls because he is going out of his way to screw up our country. If Israel attacks Iran, B. Hussein can then blame Israel (whom he doesn’t like anyway) for the resulting mayhem and depression, while using the resulting depression to finish screwing up our country.
Spot on,
Valid point. The Iranian bomb will undoubtedly transform the security and investment climate in Israel, diluting the attractiveness of Israel as a destination for Jewish immigrants.
Part of me hopes Israel attacks, the other part feels it's too late in the game. Attacking for attacking's sake in which the program is not seriously degraded will do no one any good.