Gaza's jihadists are only using the ceasefire as Islamic law intends it: to regroup and re-arm for the next round. "IDF doesn’t view rocket attacks as real escalation," by Yaakov Katz for the Jerusalem Post, July 18:
[...] One of the main problems with Gaza today is that any future Israeli operation would likely have to be dramatically different than it was in 2009.
Then, the main strategy was to separate the southern part of the Gaza Strip from the North, to cut off arms supplies to northern Gaza – the location of most of the rocket launchers – and to hit Hamas infrastructure hard from the air throughout the Strip.
Today, Military Intelligence estimates Hamas and Islamic Jihad have obtained more than 10,000 rockets and missiles – including a large stockpile of Iranian Fajr-5 rockets that can reach Tel Aviv – close to what Hezbollah had on the eve of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. A year ago, the terror groups were believed to have just a few thousands rockets, but the revolution in Egypt has completely altered the balance of power between Israel and Gaza.
Practically speaking, this buildup has major operational ramifications for the IDF and means Palestinian terror groups now store their rockets and launchers throughout the region. In order to effectively stop rocket fire into Beersheba, Ashdod, Ashkelon and Tel Aviv, the IDF will have to operate throughout the entire Strip.
Israel is extremely concerned by the major increase in weapons and explosives smuggling into Gaza since Hosni Mubarak’s downfall in February. Already in April, The Jerusalem Post reported one of the first results of the revolution was the interim government’s decision to stop construction of a steel barrier that Egypt had been building along its border with Gaza in an effort to curb smuggling.
Instead, since the revolution, the IDF believes Hamas has smuggled in three times the amount of explosives it brought into Gaza in all of 2010. This is in addition to unprecedented amounts of anti-aircraft missiles and guided anti-tank missiles, like the Russian-made Kornet that hit the school bus three months ago.
Israel understands Egypt’s relationship with Hamas has changed since Mubarak’s departure and that the military rule is turning a blind eye to the increase in smuggling, and at the same time has also lost control over Sinai and the Beduin tribes there. The closer ties between Egypt and Hamas are understood by Israel as possibly connected to the upcoming elections in Egypt and a desire by the current leadership to align itself with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it understands will gain power in the vote.
There is much more; the content above is more or less the second half of a longer report.
Perhaps that will make the nasty morons on the "Kill the Jews Flotilla" feel a little less useful!
PS: incidentally, I hope that the IDF will use EVERY FORCE to defend Israel. Appeasement does not work! And time is short.
I am not a speccy politics nerd. I am not an academic or lawyer. I am not bragging but just about every pronouncement or prediction or analysis I have made based upon what I have read and thought about has been proven right by events or revelations from official sources. Take a look at my blog and find a statement that has been proven wrong by later events or official pronouncements if you can.
So with that in mind I will say that the day after the Egyptian election Israel must eradicate Hamas wholly from the Gaza strip or face dire consequences.
The palestinians on the west bank will never have a country of their own while Hamas exists. The Hamas charter places the destruction of Israel above the creation of an independant Palestinian state.
A full independant palestinian state means the end of Hamas's excuse for war against Israel and Hamas will never allow that. Their behavior so far proves that beyond doubt. Every inch they have recieved they have uesed to murder in order to incite Israel to react so they can in turn make petty public relations points.
As long as they are allowed to exist they will try to steal the hard won state of palestine away from the Palestinian Authority in order to use it for their own genocidal purposes. They will always pose a serious threat of violent take over.
When the Muslim Brotherhood and their salafist proxies win places in the Egyptian government they will use their positions to aid Hamas in murdering as many of Israel's Jewish civilians as possible.
The only possible way to prevent this is for Israel to close off the Israeli AND EGYPTIAN entrances to Gaza and eradicate Hamas once and for all. To not do so will mean countless more Israeli lives shattered by murder and post traumatic stress disorder.
There are millions of rightious christians in this country who understand the threat and will stand by them.
Screw what the president thinks. I vow to stand by them should they take this neccisary and difficult step.
Will you?
In the last Lebanon intervention, IEDs took out 29 of Israel's best battle tanks. And 16 were damaged. Sounds awful but all it means is: Israel has no alternative but to escalate military means. An Israeli told me that Gaza will be nuked if they destroy Ashkelon power production facilities (which produce one fifth of the country's supply). That will happen. As will battlefield nukes fly when Hizbollah unleashes its Lebanon based missiles.
For 30 years I have favored creation of a muslim exclusion zone, 100 miles from Temple Mount. Yah, that includes parts of Lebanon and Syria.
I don't think Israel would use nukes in such minor situations and would never ever use them against Arab civilians. They would use them on the battlfield against wholly military targets. Arab behavior and statements show they think this too.
Notice that Arabs have never voiced serious concearn about Israel's nukes. That is because up untill now they really haven't intended to put Israel into a position where it would have to use them.
However they share a common cultural background and world view with Iran and thus understand them. That's why Saudi Arabia and the UAE are freaking out about Iran having nuclear weapons. They are afraid of Iran's nukes but not Israel's. They know Israel would only use them to protect themselves from imminent aniahlation (which current ME leaders aren't interested in causing anyway) but Iran would use them for any number of ridiculous hair brained schemes.
All the more reason that Israel doesn't leave it much longer to destroy the Iranian facilities.
The problem of IEDs is very serious.
I can't imagine another battlefield war occurring in the Middle East (or anywhere else for that matter) if only because tanks and other heavy weaponry are now so vulnerable to hi-tech air power.
Of course Hamas must be destroyed, but how? Every day that passes confirms the necessity for the total isolation of Gaza, and much as I would like to see another, much more powerful, Cast Lead, somehow a political dimension must be introduced too. Not by discussions with Hamas, that is a complete waste of time, but by pressure and co-operation with the Arab states threatened by Iran and its proxies.
Perhpas all these munitions in Gaza are not such a bad thing. There are so many in such a small area that probably one well-placed Israeli shell or missile would set off a chain of secondary explosions that would level half the country.
I have to admit your responce to my comments is far more sober than my original comments.
That is something that I have been wondering about, too.
The whole of Gaza - like the whole of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah hangs out - is becoming just one giant arsenal-cum-magazine.
A powder-keg.
Bombs under every bed.
Add in the usual inshallah carelessness and wilful refusal to observe the sorts of silly rules that we silly kafir have made up for the care and maintenance of such dangerous materials, and you have what my old dad likes to call "an accident waiting to happen".
And never mind about one well-placed Israeli shell.
I suspect it's getting to the point where one Mohammedan idiot dropping his lighted cigarette butt in the wrong place is all that it will take...
And, come to think of it, southern Lebanon is likely about the same way.
oops, didn't notice you'd already spotted the similarity with south Lebanon.