Hizballah has for some time been a parasitic pseudo-state within Lebanon, complete with its own armed forces, and has slowly been working to devour its host. An attempt to take Beirut would be a rather logical progression of events, unfortunately. Would Hizballah face any resistance from the Lebanese armed forces?
"If Assad falls, Hezbollah will take Beirut," from the Jerusalem Post, November 22:
Hezbollah may launch a military offensive to take over the Lebanese capital of Beirut if Syrian President Bashar Assad is forced out of power, Dubai-based Arabic-language news website Al Arabiya reported Tuesday according to a "source close to Hezbollah."
According to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, despite an air of confidence in broadcasts from Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, officials behind closed doors have begun to worry about the potential fallout that may result following the collapse of the Syrian regime, especially given the alliance between Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.
"The moment that Hezbollah feels that the fall of the Assad regime is imminent - either as a result of the popular movement or of foreign military intervention - it will move quickly to take control of East and West Beirut," the sources told Al Arabiya.
The source added that Hezbollah would receive support from the Free Patriotic Movement - a faction with eleven ministers in the Lebanese government - led by former Lebanese army commander Michel Aoun.
The source said that Hezbollah would seek to fortify itself in the nation's capital in order to defend itself against the threat posed by Israel, which may feel emboldened enough following the fall of Assad to launch an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, a close ally of both Syria and Iran, has denounced any potential foreign intervention inside Syria. Nasrallah warned earlier this month in a televised speech to commemorate "Martyr's Day" that any attack on Syria or Iran would lead to an all-out regional war.
Israel has said that Iran has heavily armed Hezbollah by smuggling weapons through Syria. In August, as protests raged across Syria, Turkish officials seized Iranian arms that were transferred through Syria and reportedly en route to the militant Islamist group in Lebanon.
All forms of Islam are parasitic in some way or another: http://crombouke.blogspot.com/2010/01/islamic-parasites.html
If that happens, the only thing preventing the UN and the so-called "international community" from fully backing hezbollah is the fact that they're not sunnis... If there were no sunni mahoundians in Lebanon, the international community's favorite kind of mahoundian, we'd see such a takeover of the country be unanimously hailed by the usual sandal-licking pundits and Western dhimmis in positions of leadership as yet another sign of that so-wonderful sharia "spring."
As usual, Hizbullah is just spreading taquiyya, which as Sunnis tell us, in this case, is true about them as Shia.
If Assad falls, it would be logical for Hizbullah to try and seize Beirut, but not b'cos of Israel, but b'cos of Syria. After all, Hizbullah has backed the regime in Damascus, just like it has backed, and is backed by, the regime in Teheran. If the Assad regime falls, guess what? The takeover will be by the coalition that Turkey/Saudi Arabia/Qatar & the US State Department is backing. It will either be the Muslim Brotherhood, or some other Sunni jihadis who would like to declare Syria an Islamic state.
One thing people need to understand is that the term 'Islamic state' varies from country to country, depending on which Islamic sect is the majority in any given country. In Saudi Arabia, it means the Wahabis. In Iran & Iraq, it means the Shia. In Syria, it would mean the Sunnis. In Lebanon, it now would mean the Shia, and the same would go for Bahrein. It always varies, which is why even the Baathists, who looked secular from outside due to their including Christians in their coalition (something they did out of expediency rather than principle), were in fact Islamic, but of a minority Islamic sect. Had Iraq been a Sunni country, Saddam would have been happy to head an Islamic republic, and the same goes for Assad had a majority of Syrians been either Shia or Alawite.
Anyway, if Syria becomes an Islamic republic i.e. Sunni theocracy, Hizbullah knows that they'll be only to happy to ally w/ the Sunnis in Lebanon to help restore their power. And it'll be only too easy to legitimately do so and be perceived as doing so - announce to the world that they are backing the Saad Hariri's party, which is the coalition of Sunnis and Maronites (while Michel Aoun is allied w/ Hizbullah, Samaer Gaegae's Lebanese forces are allied w/ Hariri) and want to help get to the bottom of Rafiq Hariri's assassination. With this, move into Lebanon under the pretext of disarming Hizbullah - currently the only armed militia in Lebanon - and destroy them, and then encourage the Sunnis to take back Lebanon. Just as the Alawite domination of Syria resulted in Shias becoming a majority in Lebanon, similarly a Sunni takeover in Damascus would pretty much result in an end to that in Lebanon as well.
Hizbullah knows it, and that what happens in Syria follows in Lebanon. The only time Lebanon looked like it might break loose from being tied to Syria's fortunes was when Bashir Gemayel was elected president in 1982, but the Syrians sabotaged that opportunity by assassinating him. After the US pulled out of Lebanon following Hizbullah bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut, it's pretty much been a free for all for Hizbullah in North Lebanon since then, and once the Israeli's pulled out of the South, Hizbullah got that as well.
But the thing that Hizbullah needs to do is instead of trying to capture Beirut, send all their fighters to Syria, b'cos it's there that their destiny will be determined. If Syria falls to the Sunnis, they are toast, whether they capture Beirut or not. So they need to send all their fighters to Syria, and get Iran and Iraq to send all their fighters as well - Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Iraq's Badr Brigades, et al. Saudi Arabia & Turkey are busy backing the Sunni rebellion, so what Iran can do is back the PKK in Turkey, and following the report on Bahrein, encourage a popular revolt in Bahrein even to the point of sending troops there - something that will definitely distract Saudi & Turkish attention, and prevent a cakewalk for the Sunnis in Syria. That may hopefully even get them to try and get Pali parties not tied to Syria, such as Fatah and Hamas, to join the conflict there. Yeah, Hamas is backed by Iran, but as a Sunni party, would they join the Alawites in a war against Sunnis?
Essentially, what is needed is for all jihadi forces - Shia & Sunni - to converge in Syria and plunge that country into the same type of civil war that Lebanon experienced in the 70s. It will be an Alien vs Predator situation that will eliminate a lot of jihadis on both sides of this divide. What is needed is anarchy in Syria, w/ no NATO or Western intervention - and happily, Russia & China have both warned the West against it. In fact, one result of the Libyan experiment is that both Russia & China are unhappy w/ NATO's increased influence, and don't want to see it repeated in Syria. Also, Iraq is not likely to be happy @ Syria going Sunni either, b'cos the problem during the US occupation of Sunni fighters going from Syria into al Anbar province will be repeated.
Essentially, in this Alien vs Predator conflict (TM Debbie Schlussel), may both sides win. i.e. lose!
Interesting analysis, IP. I hope that you're right about the outcome of the potential conflict!
How would Israel behave on the sidelines of said scenario?
Best thing that Israel can publicly do is nothing, and pretend to not even notice, beyond sealing their borders w/ both Syria & Lebanon. Behind the scenes, they could encourage Jordan to get most Pali jihadis from Gaza & West Bank to Syria to join the Sunni side, and if there are Pali Shia (I dunno that there are), they could get them to Syria too by secretly helping them infiltrate into either Iraq or Lebanon near the Syrian border (not places like Tyre or Sidon) and join Hizbullah fighters there. Done successfully, that would possibly see an end to rocket attacks on Sderot & other Israeli cities from Gaza.
I like your thinking on this . . .