...maybe Russia realizes that a nuclear war is emminent in the Middle East and is fearful some of it could flow over into Russia....a valid concern....

Posted by: exsgtbrown at March 13, 2007 7:55 AM

Ariel Cohen writing in the March 2 edition of frontpagemag.com, explains Russia's interest in the middle east's oil producing states, Iran among them:

NB: Cohen also notes that Putin was recently in Saudi Arabia, and announced his willingness to sell "peaceful" nuclear technology to the Saudis.

[...]

At odds with the West

There are a number of factors driving Putin’s recent rhetoric and actions in the Middle East. First, by embracing Middle Eastern monarchies and Islamist authoritarianism in Iran, he signals Russia’s continuous distancing from Western norms of internal political behavior. This has important implications, as 2007-2008 are election years in Russia. Putin is now loudly rejecting the American democracy and human rights approach, which has stumbled and sputtered in the Middle East.

Second, Russia is following the Soviet model of opposing first British and then the US presence in the Middle East by playing to anti-Western sentiment in the "street" and among the elites. Putin’s Munich speech, his Al Jazeera interview, and his press conferences in Jordan and Qatar solidified the Kremlin’s public diplomacy message, emphasizing its differences with Washington.

Third, the Russian leadership is concerned with the high Muslim birthrates in Russia, especially as the Slavic Orthodox population is declining. Russia is facing an increasingly radicalized Muslim population along its southern “soft underbelly,” particularly in the North Caucasus, where two Chechen rebellions, even though they were effectively crushed, led to the spread of Salafi Islam. Many young Russian Muslims view themselves more as members of the global Islamic Ummah (community) than as citizens of Mother Russia. Keeping Muslim powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran at bay, preventing them from supporting insurgencies in Eurasia, and toning down radicalization through Islamist education and propaganda, is an unspoken but important item on the Kremlin’s agenda.

Finally, Russia is a high-cost oil producer, the largest oil producer in the world, the largest oil exporter outside of OPEC, and the largest gas producer. As such, it is interested in maintaining a high energy price environment, which is usually generated by tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. Russia is perfectly willing to sell weapons to both sides of the growing Sunni-Shia divide. This was evidenced when the same nuclear reactors – peaceful, of course, and the same anti-aircraft systems, were offered both to Iran and to the Arab Gulf states, which are increasingly nervous about the growing Iranian military power and nuclear ambitions. As one Russian observer put it, weapons sales create allies. Russia is using weapons and nuclear reactor sales the way imperial Germany used railroads – to bolster influence and to undermine the dominant power in the Middle East.

[...]

Read it all: http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=27199

Posted by: waterdragon52 at March 13, 2007 7:56 AM

"Not that Russia has seen the light about the disastrous nature of an alliance with a jihad-supporting state, but the Iranians aren't paying up -- and there may be more to it also". -Robert

With all due respect to your fine mind Robert, I think Putin does see things very clearly. He is using Iran and the nut to get concessions from the West. He wants to put the Russian Empire (especially Ukraine) back together. (Russia cannot be a 1st rate power without the Ukraine). He also wants to sell Russian oil. If he gets what he wants, Iran and the nut go under the bus.

The game Putin plays is similar to the one Stalin attempted with Hitler in 1938, 1939. It's a dangerous game that could easily backfire. However, I read Putin as a cold gambler and he is taking chances on this. He's a Russian nationalist. We should do business with him, but always keep in mind that with Putin it's strictly business (a la Vito and Michael Corleone).

Posted by: Frank at March 13, 2007 8:58 AM

The world is a judo match to Putin. It really is -- that's how he sees it. He's proud of his judo, wrote a book on it, and is very active in the sport. If you want to understand Putin, take a look at judo, strategies inherent, and his approach to it. You'll find his whole domestic and international policy/philosophy.

Posted by: Abraham_Lincoln at March 13, 2007 10:31 AM

Good ole comrade Russia. Boris sells them arms. Ivan sells them nukes and voila America blows them up, takes the blame and Russia has lost an oil competitor in the middle east.

One would think chess was created in Russia in how they play it so well on the geopolitical board for profit and power.

Posted by: Lame Cherry at March 13, 2007 3:28 PM

Putin is a great politican, and the hidden intention of producing a shia-sunni war isn´t impossible but probable.
Bush and the foregn american politics isn´t a quiet legacy. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Morocco, monsters of islam!

Posted by: Franze at March 13, 2007 4:19 PM

The rift that has been created with Russia is one of the biggest diplomatic blunders of the Bush administration. It's difficult to say whether Russia would not have went this route anyway, but the administration certainly didn't do themselves (or Russia) any favors by criticizing Russia's anti-jihad activities against Chechnya, denying the Chechens were linked to al-Qaeda when clearly they were, and refusing to recognize their struggle with Chechnya was part of the wider so-called "GWOT".

Posted by: Ibn_Iblis at March 13, 2007 4:47 PM

It was a mistake to think the "Cold War" was over just because the Berlin Wall fell. Just because a Snake sheds its Skin, does not mean that it is no longer a Snake.

Posted by: flowerknife_us at March 14, 2007 8:28 AM

When the USSR became Russia again, they traded one set of thug leaders for another....or did they? Putin is KGB born and raised. We can never expect friendship or even cooperation from that country unless we have something they need.

Posted by: pismopal at March 14, 2007 12:28 PM