US special forces snatch squads are on standby to seize or disable Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a collapse of government authority
................................

Well, I'm glad to hear that someone is on the ball here, especially given how many Westerners seem oddly sanguine about the idea of a nuclear Iran. It's good to know that there are those in both the American and Pakistani governments who realize what a disaster it would be if the jihadists got nukes.

Posted by: gravenimage at December 31, 2007 10:05 AM

That's the kind of news I like to hear. It's not the perfect solution, but at least it keep a ready-made warhead from falling into some jihadist hands.

Posted by: livefreeordie! at December 31, 2007 10:27 AM

I often wonder if the United States should have supported the Indians who wanted to do whatever was necessary to remove the threat as soon as Pakistan conducted the surprise nuclear test. Yes, there would have been many awful strategic consequences, including a nuclear exchange.

And now many bombs are present -- probably some whose location is not known -- and those nukes will be the source of the exchanges to come.

Posted by: StillBreathing at December 31, 2007 10:33 AM

It's a mistake to wait until 'something happens' because our information not always be real time and not always 100% reliable. Dividing Special Forces and a group of civilians into teams that can secure 60 warheads in 10 places sounds like a 80/20 solution to me.

Does anyone really think what's described can be 90% successful even at face value? The content of one site would be enough to target London, Washington DC, New York, Paris, Mumbai and Rome. And what if two of six actually go off?

Why wait for something to force our action? Pakistan is a huge liability to world health and allowing it to hold 60 nuclear weapons is like playing Russian Roulette with a model 1911 Colt. In other words, when the trigger trips it's very likely to fire.

Posted by: A_Plague_on_Both_Houses at December 31, 2007 10:38 AM

The article doesn't say if we are planning this operation with the approval of the present Pakistani government. I hope so, because if the Pakistani army resists, it could result in the slaughter of many American soldiers, and might even compel us to commit larger numbers of our forces.

With a population 170 million, Pakistan would be impossible to occupy, and would make Vietnam and Iraq look like kid's stuff.

We should do everything we can to get other nations to commit special forces to this operation, including all of our NATO allies, including Russia and China. A nuclear armed Taliban controlled Pakistan would be as much a danger to the rest of the world as to us.

If we go this alone -- which we might have to do -- we're going to be in big trouble.

Posted by: rational at December 31, 2007 10:50 AM

Now these wouldn't be the same special forces who are tracking down Bin Laden and his cronies?

Posted by: leonthepigfarmer at December 31, 2007 10:57 AM

Now these wouldn't be the same special forces who are tracking down Bin Laden and his cronies?

leonthepigfarmer

Good point... and they'd be relying on help from the same people? ( Pakistani military and the ISI )

Posted by: A_Plague_on_Both_Houses at December 31, 2007 11:02 AM

Also...these is the problem of fissile materials in production or storage, and the reactors and centrifuges used to produce those materials. Apparently Pak has the ability to produce a fair amount of HEU and even Plutonium every year.

No matter how this is done, it's going to be messy and the potential for missing something is always there. Grab what you can; blast what you can't grab.

Posted by: livefreeordie! at December 31, 2007 11:06 AM

Assalamau Laikum all,

NUkes are a national treasure for Pak. We have our best trained troops guarding there....they are independent of jihadists and the government almost...

you have very little to fear....don't get carried away.

Posted by: Naseem at December 31, 2007 11:37 AM

If this story is true the mission would have to depend on the Pakistani military approving it and its participation. It would be insane to think the USA could determine where every weapon and or component is located without insider knowledge.

All it would take to derail such a plan is a single member of the Pakistani military or its intelligence services to be working for the other side an almost 100 percent certainly. Failure to complete this mission would fall directly on the USA and any use of a single weapon blamed directly on the US failure. The world’s media would have a field day with this were a device used after such a mission failure.

In addition to those problems is the current political atmosphere would never allow such a mission to take place. The chance for failure is too high. The fact we are discussing this at all shows mission compromise, which increased the chance of mission failure. Planning a mission and the conduct of it are as different as night and day.

I doubt we would have any sitting politician with the stones to order the attempt. It would be far safer politically to let a nuke fall into terrorist hands and be used and claim too revenge the victims and be tough on terrorism than to act before the event.

Posted by: Ronin at December 31, 2007 11:39 AM

I guess constantly emailing

president@white.gov

about this need since the Tora Bora fiasco didn't hurt.

Posted by: profitsbeard at December 31, 2007 11:45 AM

Over the past six years, the Bush administration
has spent almost $100 million on a highly classified program to help
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, secure his countrys
nuclear weapons However the continuously growing turmoil even before the assassination of Bhutto with the future of the country's leadership in doubt, debate is
intensifying about whether Washington has done enough to help protect
the warheads and laboratories. The aid paid for training of Pakistani personnel in the United States and the
construction of a nuclear security training center in Pakistan, a
facility that American officials say is nowhere near completion, even
though it was supposed to be in operation this year. Helicopters to night-vision goggles to
nuclear detection equipment was given to Pakistan to help secure its
nuclear material, its warheads, and the laboratories. We know the compromising damage that AQ Khan did to the security of the Nuclear arsonal programs. We know that radicals would love to get their hands on these nuclear facilities, but does Pakistan have a fail safe system that will disengage, or obort operational sequences without an extensive coding procedure that is the greatest security used and developed in the United States, known as the PAL System, that has not been shared with Pakistan after thorough review?

After all Pakistan remains a non-NATO Ally to the US.

Posted by: Mackie at December 31, 2007 11:48 AM

president@whitehouse.gov - of course.

(His house disappeared from the last post?)

Posted by: profitsbeard at December 31, 2007 11:52 AM

I see the counterfeit muslim is back! Keeping your head down, Naseem?
Haven't the mullahs got you yet for pretending your a muslim?

Posted by: rookie at December 31, 2007 11:53 AM

Naseem:

It is recognised that Pakistan does in fact consider their nuclear arsonal a national treasure, however that does not dissuade America's concerns after the AQ Khan incident.

Just how secure are the weapons,when we are being told that possibly over 43 Pct. of the Pakistanis' are sympathetic to Osama Bin Laden.

Posted by: Mackie at December 31, 2007 12:01 PM

...The Muslim radicals need not fear...when the dhimmi Clinton is elected president...she will promptly remove all US forces from all areas of conflict.....

Posted by: exsgtbrown at December 31, 2007 12:24 PM

Hey, Naseem -

Surprised you're "not in jail" as the result of your 'humanitarian' Pakistan's Ahmadi persecution! (assuming you're not an utter and complete liar, of course...)

Where were you to comment on this article? Not the 'loving Muslim Lite' crap you love to purport???

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/019316.php

Posted by: Miss_Anthrope at December 31, 2007 12:24 PM

Fissile materials in the hands of fissile minds - that is the problem.

Nukes are a treasure only if you dont use them - which makes them a loss of real treasure, which Pakistan cannot afford.

Posted by: DP111 at December 31, 2007 12:28 PM

"The essence of strategy is forethought. The essence of tactics is surprise." Rudyard Kipling

Okay, we've done the forethought, have a strategy and then blow the element of surprise by announcing our intentions to the whole world.

Brilliant.

Posted by: USBeast at December 31, 2007 12:30 PM

They are not special forces, they are the U.S. Special Forces and it is unfair and inaccurate to blame U.S.Special Forces for the failure to find and eliminate OBL. These are courageous,dedicated and competent people who deserve respect, not second guessing from bloggers, even well meaning bloggers who I am sure mean no harm.

Posted by: pismopal at December 31, 2007 12:30 PM

This is a crack pot idea!

US neither has the guts nor the inclination to carry out such an (mis)adventure.

Now, if only the US had done something about pakistan getting the bomb in the first place, instead of for decades, turning a bling eye to pakistan's nuclear programme, there wouldn't be any need now to worry about it, would it?

In any case, US has nothing to worry about from pakistan's nuclear arsenal, if anything it will be used on Hindus of India and Pandits of Kashmir, for whom, arguably US cares not a jot.

Go pakistan!

Posted by: Hermit at December 31, 2007 12:32 PM

Hermit:

It is one AQ. Khan, a Pakistani who worked with and was given access to classified nuclear information while working with private international companies in the early to mid 70s'. In the late 70s' Mr. Khan stole all the nuclear information he had aquired and took it to Pakistan. Over the years Khan became a hero in Pakistan over this action and later on it was found that he was selling nuclear information on the Black market to countries such as North Korea, and Libya. Still many believe that the Pakistani Government is complicit in this black market even though Khan fully and public admitted to conducting the black market. The suspicion lives with the fact that Pakistan issued a presidential pardon to Khan after this revelation.

Posted by: Mackie at December 31, 2007 1:03 PM

Now if it were me giving the orders.

Oh, don't tell anyone!

I would inform Musharraf that we are going to secure and remove all 60 (if that is the number) of the devices now. We also will target or have detonators in place were nuke material is made. This will all be done without any publicity.

If and when this will change is dependent on the security of the United States, the world and Pakistan, in that order. Notice I did not ask. I would also quietly inform India and all other friendly countries of these actions. If any of this does become public, deny all of it.

If Musharraf has a problem with this, anything could happen and will, to keep this material from falling into the wrong hands. The blood will be on his hands. This is not a bluff.

Posted by: Im.mad.as.HELL! at December 31, 2007 1:05 PM

>>(assuming you're not an utter and complete liar, of course...)

Miss_Anthrope, with all due respect, why on Earth would you assume that? Has this particular provocateur and general nuisance ever given you reason to assume that?

Just saying....

Posted by: Infidel33 at December 31, 2007 1:12 PM

NUkes are a national treasure for Pak. We have our best trained troops guarding there....they are independent of jihadists and the government almost...

you have very little to fear....don't get carried away.

Naseem,

Nations do not stockpile NUKES as a national treasure. Natural wonders and art works are national treasures.

Nukes are weapons of war. They are intended to destroy a countries enemies. And since we are viewed by many Muslim fanatics in Pakistan as an enemy of Islam, we have a great deal to fear.

You might consider that if ever an Islamic regime assumes control in Pakistan, and decides to act out its Islamic mandate to make war on the Infidels, using atomic weapons, millions of Pakistani citizens would be incinerated in response.

Posted by: rational at December 31, 2007 2:10 PM

There may be, as some posters have pointed out, some cosiderable difficulties and risks with this plan.

But there is one alternate scenario that I think could be more positive and is worth hoping for.

Pakistan is a client state of China. Also, these are essentially Chinese weapons, since Pakistan's development of them would have been impossible without Chinese aid, technical designs and assistance. And perhaps for that reason, as well as others, China could also be expected to object loudly to any American effort to capture them.

If, on the other hand, China offered to use its influence with Pakistan to remove these weapons to its own soil, "for safekeeping" that could resolve the matter, without the need of bloodshed and a possible nuclear conflagration, if the operations currently being contemplated fail.

Pakistan's nukes apparently number around 60. That is a drop in the bucket compared to the numbers in the U.S., which is considerably larger than China's and Pakistan's combined, so this should not significantly alter the strategic balance.

Assuming that American and/or other international observers were allowed access to the weapons and the process to verify the handover, the transfer, and their continuation there, and to Pakistan's nuclear or suspected sites, this should address everyone's security concerns, without the risk that America squanders, once again, whatever strategic good will it still around the world.

If reasonable doubts remained after this process was in place, only then, as in the Iraq precedent, would U.S. forces or others need to enter Pakistan directly.

Posted by: templar at December 31, 2007 2:15 PM

president@white.gov

Oh oh, more proof for feebleminded critics that this is a racist website.

Posted by: special_guest at December 31, 2007 2:34 PM

Assalamau Laikum Templar,

I think we are a long way away from even DISCUSSING the handover of Pak Nukes to anyone.

If this unthinkable time came to pass, I think that Pak would hedge it's bets...wanting to handover some to China, some to North Korea and some to Iran.

This maximises it's chances of getting them back when the time is right.

Posted by: Naseem at December 31, 2007 2:40 PM

I hope this doesn't sound too...trite or diminish the dangers inherent in Pakistani nukes but I was playing the game Call of Duty 4 and there's a whole game chapter where you play as a U.S. Marine and you're looking to take down a Middle Eastern strongman type.

As it turns out he has a nuke and near the end of that chapter you're getting a downed Cobra pilot away from where she's crashed and you leave in the big ol' twin rotor chopper (name escapes me). There's chatter on the radio and the NEST team is on site of the nuke and it detonates.

The blast knocks your chopper out of the sky and everything goes black. You come to sometime later in the wreckage and crawl out to witness a scene of utter devastation. The mushroom cloud is huge on the horizon, damaged buildings collapse and your compatriots are all dead while a radioactive wind blows over you.

Then you die.

It was only a game but with the current world climate I found this game to be...almost frighteningly plausible and it gave me pause.

MT

Posted by: MistahTibbs at December 31, 2007 2:54 PM

I posted to my own new blog about this alert even before Robert, and I'm with Plague (and others) in finding it short of encouraging news. Still less am I encouraged by Naseem's remarks, but I'm glad to see her back.

Handing over the Pakistani nukes to China, North Korea, and Iran...

Now why didn't I think of that?

My best wishes to everyone for a happy new year.

HAID

Posted by: Haid Dasalami at December 31, 2007 2:57 PM

Templar,

Given China's record with North Korea (a country they could shut down at any time), why should anyone expect them to be useful with Pakistan? More likely they'll just sit back and wait for another round of "six-party" talks. They're not useful in this area. They're also not to be trusted.

Unless our president (whoever it is) lets them know upfront that they will not be safe in the event of a nuclear attack originating from Pakistan or North Korea, the Chinese won't do anything. Why should they? We've given them no reason to. Commerce will continue, if GWB has his way. Nothing can interfere with the free flow of goods, not even a nuclear threat.

Posted by: PMK at December 31, 2007 3:08 PM

ronin said

Failure to complete this mission would fall directly on the USA and any use of a single weapon blamed directly on the US failure.

That's probably exactly the debate inside the Administration. And just as you said, those nuclear safeguards only work when most of the safeguarders want them to work. Those safeguards work in the U.S. because the people guarding the weapons are not religious psychopaths intent on bringing about the return of the Mahdi by sowing worldwide chaos. Their God has not instructed them to kill believers of other religions wherever they find them.

How did we ever let it get to this point? When A.Q. Khan stole the nuclear technology from the Netherlands in 1975, we should have killed him. When Pakistan started their nuclear weapon program in 1976, we should have destroyed their facilities and everyone inside.

Instead, the Netherlands sentenced (in absentia) A.Q. Kahn to four years in prison, which was later overturned on a technicality. The U.S. turned a blind eye, Pakistan built the first Islamic A-Bomb, and now we find ourselves in a bit of a pickle, wondering how we can stop those weapons from being used on an infidel city. I predict we will look back on this as the biggest failure of U.S. foreign policy of the late 20th Century. A colossal mistake.

Posted by: special_guest at December 31, 2007 3:09 PM

does anyone know the point of origin of this story ? National Terror Alert seem to have got it from the Glasgow Herald ?

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/foreign/display.var.1933388.0.Special_forces_on_standby_over_nuclear_threat.php

Posted by: M Al-Content at December 31, 2007 3:30 PM

"If this unthinkable time came to pass, I think that Pak would hedge it's bets...wanting to handover some to China, some to North Korea and some to Iran.

This maximises it's chances of getting them back when the time is right."

Posted by: Naseem

Naseem,

Maybe I'm naive, and certainly I'm no political pundit. So, I have to ask, just out of curiosity--What makes you think Pakistan would get any of its nukes back?

It seems to me that North Korea and Iran would be just as likely to keep them. Both countries have nuclear aspirations (probably already have a few nukes up their sleeves, already).

Why do you think they would return your national treasure, rather than add it to their own respective treasuries?

Posted by: Abscedere at December 31, 2007 3:50 PM

Allowing Pakistan it's nukes was a mistake, or maybe a crime, in the first place. They would be a treasure to those with sinister intent. Take them away and don't give them back...

Posted by: duh_swami at December 31, 2007 4:28 PM

Only Hollywood could make an operation like this work.

There would be a war as soon as we entered the Country. Getting in is one thing, getting out with the goodies is the rub. No matter how much the Country may disintegrate, it is Highly unlikely the Army will let its toys go. They may even chose to use a few in the process.

Let there be no doubt. The MSM will inform the World of every possible step our Government takes regarding any plans it may be making. Just like this one has.

Posted by: flowerknife_us at December 31, 2007 4:55 PM

Hmm give the nukes away to countries the US has problems with. I could see them try that but it would mean a total stop in US aid to Pakistan and force us to arm friendly Sunni governments. We would also have to sign treaties to retaliate on both the aggressor nation and Pakistan if a device were used. Its sounds like a fantastic scenario to me.

A few extras dropped along the Pakistan/ Afghan border would really solve a few short term problems.

Posted by: Ronin at December 31, 2007 5:06 PM

Hi Naseem.

As an Ahmadiyya you have everything to lose if the Jihadis openly take over.

I have only one piece of advice and I give it with all my heart.

If a man in dazzling white clothes, identifying himself as Jesus son of Mary, appears to you in a dream, holds out his hand and tells you to follow him...DO WHATEVER HE TELLS YOU and you may just possibly get out of Pakistan alive.

Posted by: dumbledoresarmy at December 31, 2007 5:23 PM

There's a crisis in Pakistan, which hopefully won't lead to civil war, but could easily do so now that the government is so unstable.

Yet President Bush and Condi Rice are still concentrating their efforts in getting Israel to submit to a terror state in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.

Obviously the Jewish state is far easier to manipulate, with a total population of 7.2 million, than Pakistan is, where terror supporters far outnumber the total population of Israel.

I suspect the US will end up bitterly regretting helping their Islamist allies and good "friends", like Saudi, Pakistan, Palestinian terrorists, etc., while stabbing their true allies in the back.

Posted by: Jerusalem Posts at December 31, 2007 6:32 PM

Ronin said

A few extras dropped along the Pakistan/ Afghan border would really solve a few short term problems.

Hmmm, I like it. If a Pakistani nuclear weapon were to detonate in Waziristan in some sort of work-accident, it would give the U.S. the justification to go in and get the remaining a-bombs. No-one would blame the U.S. in that case. And it might even take out OBL in the process. I like it.

Posted by: special_guest at December 31, 2007 7:54 PM

@ special_guest

Thanks my friend, feel free to share my idea with the pentagon brass but remember it would be a Pakistani weapon it may just go psssstttttttttt and stink up the place.

Posted by: Ronin at December 31, 2007 8:11 PM

"Military sources say contingency plans have been reviewed over the past three days to prevent any of Pakistan’s atomic weapons falling into the hands of Islamic extremists if the administration of President Pervez Musharraf appears threatened by civil unrest...."

I am of the opinion this has already happened, right after they built the first one. Musharraf may be the very person that gave rise to the current civil unrest as well.

Band-aids for a lost limb.

Posted by: Islofob IS-1 at December 31, 2007 9:01 PM

Musharraf will give us access to the nukes because we're going to give him amnesty someday.

Posted by: Bingo at January 1, 2008 7:39 AM

Naseem, et al:

If a luntic jihadi regime takes over in Pakistan, the more likely outcome is that it will wind up trading precious national treasures with India.

Posted by: Darryl Harb at January 1, 2008 9:51 AM

"Given China's record with North Korea (a country they could shut down at any time), why should anyone expect them to be useful with Pakistan? More likely they'll just sit back and wait for another round of "six-party" talks. They're not useful in this area. They're also not to be trusted".

Posted by PMK

Agreed. But they can certainly be relied on to do what they perceive as being in their own interests.

The threat to all of Asia posed by the radioactive fallout that would result from a nuclear conflict between the U.S. and Pakistan or between Pakistan and India is one they likely consider grave. Its part of their immediate neighbourhood.

I don't say that we should have high expectations of them or be unguarded about their role in this. But if they were to make an offer, I would hope that American officials would at least consider it.

Posted by: templar at January 3, 2008 7:50 PM