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January 5, 2008

"A jihadi dirty bomb will be of Pakistani origin"

"The possibility of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands are very low. The only way it could happen is if the state itself willingly gives it to extremist groups." And that, of course, is a possibility.

"'A jihadi dirty bomb will be of Pak origin,'" from the Times of India (thanks to Sr. Soph):

NEW DELHI: A turmoil-hit Pakistan may stress that fears about its nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of Islamic extremists are "totally unfounded and nonsense".

But the scare is not so much about the safety of the actual nuclear weapons or warheads, as about radicals getting access to enriched uranium, nuclear components and know-how.

"Attempts by Al-Qaida to acquire dirty bombs are quite well-established," said a senior official, who in the past has been linked with India's nuclear weapon programme.

[...]

"Pakistan has dispersed its weapons and distributed oversight to multiple strategic and security authorities. But these arrangements by necessity increase the likelihood that corrupt officials could successfully divert weapons or materials," said Allison.

A chilling example of what this could lead to was witnessed in August 2001 when two senior scientists of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme, Sultan Bashirrudin Mahmood and Chaudhiri Andul Majid, were spotted with Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.

Not all, of course, agree with such scare scenarios. "Any country which has nuclear assets will be very careful about protecting them, with established interlocks and security features. This includes Pakistan," said K Santhanam, former chief adviser (technology) of Defence Research and Development Organisation.

"The possibility of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands are very low. The only way it could happen is if the state itself willingly gives it to extremist groups," he added.

Posted by Robert at January 5, 2008 3:37 AM
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Let's not confuse "low possibility" with "no possibility".

Posted by: Blaxland [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 4:29 AM

All nuclear powers, every nation that has had, and continues to hold nuclear weapons, and material, has at some time lost secrets, as well as the hardware.

And it will only increase as more nations join the "club" . Coming to terms with this will require a event, that leads the world into a forced focus. A major event has a way of doing just that.

Taken for granted here is that Pakistan right now is not a terrorist state, and is a great friend.

We may be closer to that event than most who support "Atoms for peace" will ever admit.

Posted by: Islofob IS-1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 4:34 AM

It's all good until the current government is over-thrown by the taliban, al-Qaeda, or who knows. Remember Musharraf is a puppet and will do as told.

Posted by: NAC [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 5:00 AM

US loose nukes were flown across America. At the link at my name is a list of questions on: What did Musharraf know? Pakistan is no reliable ally of America.

Posted by: Old Atlantic [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 9:00 AM

two senior scientists of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme, Sultan Bashirrudin Mahmood and Chaudhiri Andul Majid, were spotted with Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.


It's not necessary for the weapons to fall into the wrong hands. The people with the knowledge of how to use it are the threat. A. Q. Khan and his minions did immense damage to our security without firing off a single weapon.

How many nuclear and chemical engineers will come from Muslim ranks in the next two decades? We shouldn't expect them all to be "peaceful". One such man, whom most of us would have taken to be a "peaceful Muslim", helped build the truck bomb for the first attack on the World Trade Center.

Posted by: PMK [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 9:34 AM
"Pakistan has dispersed its weapons and distributed oversight to multiple strategic and security authorities. But these arrangements by necessity increase the likelihood that corrupt officials could successfully divert weapons or materials," said Allison.

Dispersing and involving several bureaucratic agencies sounds like a real effective way to hide them from the gov't itself. It will be much easier to explain a lost or missing nuke this way. Very effective indeed.

Also, does anyone think that all the various caches will be in the same state of security and that procedures will be the same and to the same level of detail with all the different sites and people involved? Very unlikely.

This shell game doesn't impress me because it divides attention and resources and introduces way too many people to the intimate details. A recipe for disaster if you ask me.

Posted by: A_Plague_on_Both_Houses [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 9:53 AM

From article: Taken for granted here is that Pakistan right now is not a terrorist state, and is a great friend.

Taken for granted is about right. Is Pakistan our friend? Why?. Do the Paki's just naturally love Americans and want to be our friend? What are we doing for Pakistan that makes them love us?
Oh...jizya...I don't know that 'Pakistan' loves us for jizya, but certainly Musharraf, some of his top generals, and other well placed people do.

I would hope and assume that the US knows the locations of Pakistan's nukes, and that the terrorists do not. There must be a limited number of technicians, who are trained in maintenance, and deployment. Removing them from the country would be almost as good as removing the nukes...

Posted by: duh_swami [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 10:00 AM

main religious and jihadi organisation in pakistan ie Jammat has roots in isi and army. all it needs is few to get together and make a dirty bomb. there is no doubt in my mind that origins of a dirty bomb will be from pakistan

Posted by: swimmer [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 10:38 AM

"Fall in the wrong hands"??? I thought that already happened. Wronger hands maybe. If such a state of being actually can exhist.

Posted by: flowerknife_us [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2008 8:18 PM
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