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1938 Alert. "Israel now fears Iran could have nuclear bomb by mid-2009," by Yaakov Katz and Herb Keinon for the Jerusalem Post, May 6:
With Iran racing forward with its nuclear program, Israel now believes the Islamic Republic will master centrifuge technology and be able to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
The new assessment moves up Israel's forecasts on Teheran's nuclear program by almost a full year - from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year.
Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.
Israel is also concerned that Teheran is developing a cruise missile that can evade interception by the Arrow, the IDF's anti-ballistic missile defense system. Iran is suspected of having smuggled Ukrainian X-55 cruise missiles and using them as models for an independent, domestic project. A cruise missile, which flies at low altitudes to dodge radar detection and interception, could be used to carry a nuclear warhead.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that Israel had the ability to create the tools needed to ensure its continued existence. Hinting at Iran, Olmert said that nothing in the world could undermine or bring an end to Israel's existence.
Not even Olmert's own policies, hopefully.
In the past, the consensus in the intelligence community was that Iran had encountered technical difficulties with fuel enrichment and that its attainment of nuclear capability was much further off, Mofaz said, but a recent IDF Military Intelligence assessment showed that the Islamic Republic could go nuclear before the end of the decade.
Also Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer warned that more nations would follow the examples of Iran and North Korea and work to develop nuclear weapons. He said that the possibility that Syria was building a weapons-capable nuclear reactor before the IAF destroyed it on September 6 showed that NATO must find an answer to ballistic missile threats.
Posted by Marisol at May 7, 2008 1:00 AM
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NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer warned that more nations would follow the examples of Iran and North Korea and work to develop nuclear weapons. He said that the possibility that Syria was building a weapons-capable nuclear reactor before the IAF destroyed it on September 6 showed that NATO must find an answer to ballistic missile threats.
----
And the answer would be.. we'll start bombing in five minutes or.. bomb bomb bomb bomb iran..
Too bad I have to use this gallows humor to make the point but the situation calls for it.
We either bomb them or they bomb us.
We're going to level them anyway unless the MAndchurian really gets the White House..
So might as well do it pre-emptively.
Besides we still owe them for the hostages.
Posted by: Ummah Gummah
at May 7, 2008 1:59 AM
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer warned that more nations would follow the examples of Iran and North Korea and work to develop nuclear weapons. He said that the possibility that Syria was building a weapons-capable nuclear reactor before the IAF destroyed it on September 6 showed that NATO must find an answer to ballistic missile threats.
----
And the answer would be.. we'll start bombing in five minutes or.. bomb bomb bomb bomb iran..
Too bad I have to use this gallows humor to make the point but the situation calls for it.
We either bomb them or they bomb us.
We're going to level them anyway unless the MAndchurian really gets the White House..
So might as well do it pre-emptively.
Besides we still owe them for the hostages.
Posted by: Ummah Gummah
at May 7, 2008 1:59 AM
There's a very nice article by Spengler over at Asia Times Online that speaks to some of the dynamics at play here, especially as it relates to Iranian interactions with the Vatican.
The heart has its own unreason
By Spengler
"A madman is not someone who has lost his reason. A madman is someone who has lost everything but his reason," wrote English writer G K Chesterton, adding, "Poets do not go mad, but chess players do."
The Persians invented chess, but have been prone to madness since Xerxes flagellated the sea for obstructing his failed attempt to invade Greece in the 5th century BC. Today's Persians evince grandmasterly cunning in their maneuvers against America, but are madder than Xerxes. Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad thinks that the Holocaust never happened, that there are no homosexuals in Iran, and that the American cartoon Tom and Jerry is an instrument of Zionist propaganda.
Persia's leaders evince a sort of thinking that in other countries would constitute legal grounds for commitment to a psychiatric hospital. On January 5, 2005, Ahmadinejad said, "We must believe in the fact that Islam is not confined to geographical borders, ethnic groups and nations. It's a universal ideology that leads the world to justice. We don't shy away from declaring that Islam is ready to rule the world. We must prepare ourselves to rule the world."
Read it all at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE06Ak03.html
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 2:05 AM
I heard if Obama gets elected, Israel might be nuked by a third party. I highly doubt Iran would do it directly rather have some sort of proxy to carry out the evil deed.
Posted by: twoedgesword
at May 7, 2008 2:05 AM
May God be with our brave boys in Iraq –
they will be first in the coming fight.
at May 7, 2008 2:14 AM
Re the AOT article I pointed to above: in it you will find a link to another fascinating article by Spengler I think JW readers will strongly resonate with.
Indiana Jones meets the Da Vinci Code
by Spengler
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA15Ak03.html
I've read a number of Spengler's essays. He's not as good as Hugh, but he's up there with Hitchins.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 2:23 AM
Ahmadinejad said, "We must believe in the fact that Islam is not confined to geographical borders, ethnic groups and nations. It's a universal ideology that leads the world to justice. We don't shy away from declaring that Islam is ready to rule the world. We must prepare ourselves to rule the world."
SIEG HEIL
Posted by: Ummah Gummah
at May 7, 2008 2:33 AM
About Spengler (which should probably by "Spengler" since I have no idea what his real name is): You can read more of his masterful essays, many of which are directly targeted to the same pressing issues discussed on this forum, at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/spengler.html
at May 7, 2008 2:38 AM
Given Hockmockinajob's threats to "wipe Israel off of the map", then I can see why Israel would be concerned. Old-Mert needs to grow a pair before it's too late.
Posted by: champ
at May 7, 2008 3:14 AM
There is a race on.
The mullahs are racing to get nuclear bombs - which, I have no doubt whatever, they intend to use on Israel as soon as they possibly can. After all, they firmly believe that all Muslims in the vicinity (within Israel and in Arab Muslim-occupied Judea, Samaria and Gaza), who perish in the blast/s, will fly up to heaven as blessed martyrs whilst the Jews will be destroyed and go to hell.
I am sure they intend to then use their nukes on the remaining major centres of Jewish population in the diaspora - e.g. New York, France, Russia. Because they have conned themselves into believing that if they kill all the Jews - in other words, if they murder every Jew in the world on the bloody altar of their demon 'allah' - the End of the World will happen, the mahdi will return, etc etc. Kill a Jew and get into Paradise. Die in the process of attempting to kill all the Jews, and get into Paradise as a 'martyr'. Human sacrifice on the grandest possible scale.
If, of course, any of the great powers attempts to nuke Iran in response to these delightful activities, so what? one suspects they are calculating - millions of Muslim martyrs and millions and millions of dead or dying kafir. More human sacrifices for hungry 'allah'.
I honestly fear that if Ahmadinejad and the mullahs had a button that, if pressed, could vaporise the entire planet, killing every single person now living, they would press it.
*spit*.
The sheer diabolical wickedness of this mindset is breathtaking.
But I said there was a race on. The *other* race is...how fast will it sink into the minds of a majority of Israeli Jews, that they will have to act, soon, fast, and overwhelmingly, irrespective of whether any other non-Muslims state backs them up, to try to prevent this scenario? Will enough of them, in positions such that they are able to make military and political decisions, grasp, in time, the fact that they are facing something even madder and more murderous than Hitler - jihad with nukes?
Many Jews in Israel are getting seriously spooked.
I do not believe any Gentile, non-Muslim nation has the right to preach 'restraint' to them.
1 Samuel 17: 41-52.
Posted by: dumbledoresarmy
at May 7, 2008 3:23 AM
Striking the Iran A-bomb site is a no-brainer. Just obliterate it along with the foreign advisors therein. Maybe the Hidden Imam will show himself in the mushroom cloud. Besides, like another poster said, we still owe them for the hostage crisis.
Posted by: Bingo
at May 7, 2008 5:15 AM
The evil of inaction is only understated by its idiocy. The mullahs successfully read the cowardice of the infidels. Since the devil has unequivocally articulated its love for death and for death of us infidels, allowing the devil to achieve nuclear weapons would be one of the biggest follies in the history of mankind. The fact that the devil's program was not halted ten years ago is beneath contempt.
Infidels of the world, this is our final chance to do something about it. They mean to kill you and your family. This is the time when we must pay particular attention to the advice of one the Western world's greatest political advisors.
"If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." Nicolo Machiavell
Posted by: David England
at May 7, 2008 6:42 AM
"I heard if Obama gets elected, Israel might be nuked by a third party. I highly doubt Iran would do it directly rather have some sort of proxy to carry out the evil deed."
The United States should state publicly that if a nuclear device is ever detonated in Israel, the U.S. or Europe, that we have as short list of nations that we will hold responsible, and obliterate in such an event.
There will be no investigations to determine who is responsible or how the device was delivered. We will simply destroy those nations on our list.
There is no need to reveal which nations are on the list. Let them guess. Iran will surely guess that they're on it, and so might think twice about handing a nuclear weapon off to a third party.
Posted by: rational
at May 7, 2008 7:10 AM
"If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." Nicolo Machiavelli
Posted by: David England
One of the flaws in the laws that limit self protection to only those actions sufficient to ward off the aggressor is that it ignores Machiavelli's advice. His book, "The Prince" is highly recommended.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 7:47 AM
And if Israel is nuked by Iran or anyone else then the Palestinians will join them on the ash heap of history. They will all go down together. No one will ever again see the Temple Mount or "Islam's third holiest site".
Would we see a large scale evacuation of the West Bank and Gaza in advance of such an attack, much as the Muslims fled Israel in advance of Arab wars of aggression?
Where is the EU? Weren't they the ones who pushed for negotiations with Iran?
I believe it was Rafsanjani (whom the West deemed "moderate") who said the destruction of his own country (the ultimate result of a nuclear attack by Iran on another nation) was an acceptable price to pay for the reappearance of the 12th (or 112th - who knows?) imam.
Posted by: PMK
at May 7, 2008 8:50 AM
The onus is on the Iranian people. If they feel such great pride in their nuclear accomplishments they should realize that pride comes at a price. Their own failures will be their undoing. If they don't see the mullahs as failures then no one should worry about "innocent Iranians". They don't exist.
If they are prepared to live with the regime they have now they should be prepared to die FOR it. I wouldn't say die with it, because it's a safe bet that the mullahs have their own escape routes well planned. Suicide is for others, not for them.
Rafsanjani fully intends to be alive and well to witness the imam's resurrection.
at May 7, 2008 9:01 AM
"Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months."
I predict they will encounter a significant emotional event in the near future when they ready the nuclear missles out for launching...We are watching.
at May 7, 2008 9:05 AM
Something to keep in mind is that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were levelled with uranium and plutonium bombs -fission bombs- pikers when compared to the exponentially more powerful hydrogen fusion bomb, first tested in 1952 at Bikini Atoll. See: "Mike" Test
The Iranians are presumably developing a uranium bomb, and if they are stupid enough to actually use it, or allow it to be used by proxies, I expect that Tehran and environs will be hit with its big brother, the H-bomb, if not by the Israelis, then by the U.S., with "extreme prejudice." It may be that these crazies will be shouting "Allahu Akbar!" as their greasy beings are instantly incinerated, but their survivors, the ones who die slowly from radiation poisoning, induced cancers, and other painful organ failures, might not remember to thank Allah for such a glorious honor.
Isaiah 14:9-27
Posted by: Lex
at May 7, 2008 9:10 AM
"Israel now fears Iran could have nuclear bomb by mid-2009,"
Israel shouldn't fear iran having a nuclear bomb, Israel should "deliver" them a couple of them.
Slim pickins (Major Kong in Dr. strangelove)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0
at May 7, 2008 9:10 AM
"Israel now fears Iran could have nuclear bomb by mid-2009,"
Israel shouldn't fear iran having a nuclear bomb, Israel should "deliver" them a couple of them.
Slim pickins (Major Kong in Dr. strangelove)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0
at May 7, 2008 9:10 AM
Who in the IDF is saying this and why are they to be believed over the 2007 NIE?
Posted by: Not Telling
at May 7, 2008 9:42 AM
The islamic world is trying to bring us to our knees.
They are tightening the screws with $100 - $200 a barrel oil. They are intentionally wrecking our economy...isn't that an act of war?
Looks like Hugo Chavez was successful with his anti-US speech.
Iran has the capability to make nuclear weapons, "peaceful usage" they say. Then they go on to say they will bomb whoever allah tells them to.
They are trying to get Russia to be their "slack".
http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=12541
at May 7, 2008 9:49 AM
"Olmert said that nothing in the world could undermine or bring an end to Israel's existence."
-- from the article above
That kind of statement reveals how little he understands, how little he has grasped even of the history of the past unappetizing century.
Maximilian, to his valet, before the firing squad ended his life:
"You said it would not come to this. You see that you were wrong."
at May 7, 2008 9:51 AM
Why the Nuclear Program Undermines Iran's Independence
"Whatever happens, grin and declare victory!"
http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=12007
at May 7, 2008 10:00 AM
"If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared." Nicolo Machiavell
You notice that he said 'if', not 'when'. We are still in the 'iffing' stage with Iran, when we should be in the 'whening' stage. If we wait to long to 'when' them, we may lose to them...
Posted by: duh_swami
at May 7, 2008 10:02 AM
"They are tightening the screws with $100 - $200 a barrel oil. They are intentionally wrecking our economy...isn't that an act of war?"
-by interestinconumdrum
I call it shortsighted and stupid. Once our economy is wrecked (include Japan and NATO countries) who will buy their petroleum? The Chinese won't buy it. They'll TAKE it.
Remember the recession in the 1990s when oil dropped to $10 a barrel. Gas consumption in the US is falling. Diesel use is high but diesel consumption will also drop as more and more truckers go out of business. There will be fewer places for truckers to deliver their wares if people won't buy them. The trick is to keep oil prices as high as you can without triggering a slowdown. We've passed that point. They overplayed their hand.
at May 7, 2008 10:12 AM
"There will be fewer places for truckers to deliver their wares if people won't buy them."
Posted by: PMK
It's already begun. "Fred's" department store chains are closing all but a couple (literally two or three) of their stores in Florida. When I asked about it at the store down the road, the cashier told me it was because of the rising cost of fuel, and truckers going out of business.
Posted by: Abscedere
at May 7, 2008 10:32 AM
pulsar182: good one. It brought a BIG smile to my face.
Abscedere: For some reason, all this time you've been at JW (I've been here almost since the beginning) I thought you were Australian! What does your screen name mean?
Posted by: CGW
at May 7, 2008 11:38 AM
Rafsanjani, always make me think of a rap singer.
Let's hope someone steps up to the plate and takes the initiative. And soon. One would assume it will be Israel but whoever does it will be doing the world a whole lot of good.
Posted by: gymgal
at May 7, 2008 11:50 AM
The consequences of Iran's attainment of the Bomb are unthinkable. So the world community thinks it only need fear destabilization and nuclear proliferation, and is resigned to the seeming inevitability of an Iranian nuke? If the Islamic Republic gains nuclear weapons, then a regional WAR IS CERTAIN; it is only a question of WHEN, not IF. We MUST NOT allow this to happen.
Posted by: John C
at May 7, 2008 11:57 AM
Will anyone of us here at JW be surprised when the nukes go off? Anyone? I didn't think so.
Now, for those who call us names like 'racist', 'Islamophobe', or my fav, "Bushie", will you be surprised when the nukes go off? Will you shriek "Why didn't somebody DO something to stop this?" And will those of us JW be suprised? Sadly...not.
Posted by: cp
at May 7, 2008 4:37 PM
""There will be fewer places for truckers to deliver their wares if people won't buy them."
Posted by: PMK
"It's already begun. "Fred's" department store chains are closing all but a couple (literally two or three) of their stores in Florida. When I asked about it at the store down the road, the cashier told me it was because of the rising cost of fuel, and truckers going out of business."
Posted by: Abscedere
There are other, related, signs, too, such as rushes on buying up of rice in Alaska(!), of all places.
http://www.adn.com/anchorage/story/394730.html
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 5:19 PM
As a follow-up to my previous post: Here's the Chicago Board of Trade history of the price of rice futures over the past year+
As this shows, there is something going on in the global rice market. These are prices producers are paid, and it's not clear what part of this is due to increased shipping costs due to rising oil prices. Part of it might be speculation, or part of is simply hedging on the part of buyers in anticipation of still further price increases.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 5:48 PM
Eastview,
The rice shortage is unrelated to Iran's nukes. People will empty a supermarket of milk right before a snowstorm. A lot of people who are buying in Sam's Club or Costco are buying in quantities they normally wouldn't buy. News of the shortage leads to panic buying and then the market sets itself right. It's not just Alaska.
from the article:
Global stocks of rice have fallen by half in recent years, partly due to droughts and higher demand. Rising fuel prices have added to shipping costs. Shortages of affordable rice in China, India, Vietnam and Thailand have led to restrictions on exports, which have caused price increases in consumer nations.
at May 7, 2008 5:54 PM
PMK, I suspect there's more going on than local Alaska panic. Go to the site I pointed to earlier showing rice prices. On the left panel click down through the various commodities, set the "period" to "weekly", and you will see that most of them (corn, oats, what, soybeans, ethanol) have followed a relentless upward price climb during the past year.
All these prices are affected by energy costs, so reflect to some degree spiraling oil costs.
This is not unrelated to Iran. If they are rash enough to attack Israel, of course there is no choice but to retaliate, massively. One can even make the case, as have many posters here, for pre-emptive action. However, either way this would not happen without severe blow-back. There could occur significant economic disruption, perhaps even devastation, because of the oil linkage to the ME. If we think food prices are high now, what do you think would happen if a nuclear war broke out in the ME? Hopefully the economic disruption could be limited in scale and the war contained from spreading outside the ME. However, given the nature of our adversary this might not be so easy.
None of us here have much choice about whether to go on this ride or not. We'll all travel together, wherever it takes us. However, we can hope that, when the balloon goes up, our leaders and planners will have done a better job thinking through, not only our response, but also what's likely to happen on the day after, than they did with Iraq.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 7, 2008 8:55 PM
"The new assessment moves up Israel's forecasts on Teheran's nuclear program by almost a full year - from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year."
And this is a surprise to who, exactly? Oh, thats right, its a surprise to everyone including the highest members of the Administration and Gvnmt! I knew I had seen that look before, up here in Oregon we call it "deer in the headlight" look. I wonder how many remember that report recently, I apologise for not being able to recall its proper name, which talked about how Iran had suspended its atomic weapons program, and that no one was really sure how long it would take, if Iran started the program up again, to acquire enough material to make a bomb? Contradiction? Hmmmm.......has this been pointed out to those who were responsibile for the report, and more importantly has the Administration been informed of this new development? I'm guessing.....no. OK, nothing to see here, move along..
"Kuffirs of the world, Unite!"
"Islam, abusing women and children since 622AD"
at May 7, 2008 9:39 PM
Iran is rapidly gaining the ability to build nuclear weapons from the ground up. Don't you wonder how many completed warheads they've already purchased on the black market?
Middle age and dealing with my kids is affecting my memory, but I don't recall ever reading that the allies waited for the Nazi's to complete and detonate a nuclear device before they took action. Maybe 'the people in charge' should be reminded of that...
Posted by: livefreeordie!
at May 7, 2008 11:56 PM
Just a general comment re. food prices and food shortages.
Australia supplies, or supplied, China with a lot of wheat. We also, up till now, believe it or not, have grown a lot of rice - by irrigation.
But for over ten years we have been in drought. According to the Weather Bureau people, and scientists who have done a lot of work on the evidence from pollens and coral cores, this is Australia's worst drought for about a thousand years. The city I live in is now entering the six-month-long dry season with its water storages at 40% and falling (which is better than what it was at the start of the 'wet' which has just finished - 15% - but 'the wet' didn't deliver anything like what it should).
Our last rice crop was down by 95% - a write off. In fact, all of our inland irrigation areas, in the Murray-Darling basin, are...out of water. Established fruit trees and table and wine grapes are dying - there isn't enough irrigation water available to keep them alive, while the rain has been way down even by Australian standards.
Our last ten years' worth of wheat harvests have been bad, too.
We have enough for ourselves, but not that much left over for export. So those who buy food from us are feeling the pinch.
Posted by: dumbledoresarmy
at May 8, 2008 12:27 AM
Slightly OT
Interesting Dutch documentary on a possible end game scenario involving Israel and Iran.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=IHtgYCS12ZE&feature=related
Posted by: km
at May 8, 2008 5:11 AM
Eastview,
My point was that Iran could drop its nuclear program today and we would still have those price spikes. It doesn't matter if the entire Middle East becomes lovey-dovey and Israel and Iran become best friends.
We have oil shortages that are unrelated to Iran's nuclear program. THEY are the reason we are seeking to boost ethanol production. The market for oil has grown and the supply has not.
The rise in the price of oil didn't lead to shortages of rice in Western nations. Nothing stops China from exporting its manufactured goods, even the rise in oil prices. Shipping costs might have increased but you can't ship what producers won't sell. The market for rice has grown over the last several decades. People in Western nations are looking to buy rice even at the increased prices. It's not there. Iran's nuclear program didn't cause, or contribute to, a grain shortage.
at May 8, 2008 8:46 AM
Dear All,
Before this that we come to any conclusion about Iran; we need to know the back ground that why Iran is a contentious issue for the west and why Iran must not be allowed to arm itself with nuclear weapons?
Well, it was early forties that in the wake of Adolph Hitler’s excursion to create a Nazis domain in Europe; he started grabbing their neighbouring countries one after another. This compelled the Western colonial powers in occupation of many other countries around the world, to abandon their colonial adventures and revert back home to safe guard their own nests…their well sought home lands in Europe. In order to dislodge the Nazis forces and check their onslaught, this withdrawal from foreign lands in turn resulted in freeing some 40 countries serving as western colonies and they were able to shed subjugation and take a breath of relief and freedom. From there on; although Europe and American forces were on continuous retreat but major colonial powers were able to do at least one thing; to draw new border lines before they leave. Although they did give the freedom to their subject countries but they did demark the new border lines with intent to create blood barrier and rifts in the tribes and regions. They installed scores of dictators, monarch and kings to police and rule the new states and to act as remote control western proxies. Thus, leaving ample chances for the colonial forces to revisit or avail a come back later, in future to act as mediators etc.
Just few years had passed that the discovery of abundance of oil especially in Middle East in early Fifties changed the entire scenario of affairs in newly freed countries. It also motivated the old colonial powers to come back and take the lucrative emerging resources in control to run their oil based economies. Since then there has been lot of ‘oil exploration’ carried out by the west in the areas but the local indigenous masses remained totally aloof and left outs being ignorant and as un-lettered old subjugated lot. Ever since many moves are seen taking place by the west to secure a foot hold and control and to avail a continuous and secured flow of extracted oil. It also included the arrangements to lay the massive oil pipe lines and its transportations to suck the oil out and reach safely to the west.
Above has created a natural resentment among the local unlettered masses and it tended them to stop check the exploitation and resist their re-shackling into subjugation and deceitful policies of deprivation and oppression.
Where as the previously installed kings, the monarchs and dictators were made used to exploit the situations and establish business enterprises to have their foot holds; agents like Israel were also created to spin-cum-escalate the war like situations in the area so that west can move in free with the forces in the name of maintenance of peace and security. In the process where as the western savagery has learnt to parcel out its violence neatly, the local resistance is seen as obvious blatant and savage.
Iraq war lead by US is the last episode on the line of western onslaught; the obvious retaliation of locals against the war and deprivation of their sovereignty has been termed as war against terror. The US hegemonic adventurism to keep the lands and routes of oil in their folds has brought the turmoil, chaos and anarchy in the lives of people in affected regions. Millions of innocent people have been displaced or killed and their civic infrastructure as well as amenities destroyed.
In order to avail a cake walk for the US lead forces and to exert the power of the Allies in the extended battle fields from the Red Sea in Middle East in the south to the High lands in the North in Afghanistan, the entire region is deprived of any defensive arsenals; may it be the purchase, procurement from abroad or any local manufacturing.
After the consolidations of US mega bases in Iraq and establishment of many other Command and controls anchorages in the Gulf States; Iran the odd one out is putting up a potent resistance and thus has been declared as the ‘priority enemy target’ of the western Allies. The production of any deterring weapon like nuclear weapons or any potent arsenal by Iran is seen as threat to the plans of US hegemonic adventurism.
Iran is the hurdle in the way of victory; it must be eliminated or cut to size and be subjugated at all costs.
So it may not be long that we see the fly past of waves after waves of Allied air sorties with the state of the art, target homing Missiles carrying out their precision strikes and taking out, all the possible Iranian potent arsenal producing sites and other military targets!
--------------
Adabarez
at May 8, 2008 7:23 PM
Ladies and gentlemen - especially anyone new to this site:
look carefully at 'adabarez' elaborately argued piece of claptrap, just above.
It is what the redoubtable Martha Gellhorn called 'mad-hattery', from beginning to end.
The most striking thing about it is the fact that it blames ALL strife within the Islamosphere, everywhere, everywhen, on the baleful machinations and plottings of non-Muslims. 'adabarez' wants us to believe it's ALL our fault - every 'honor' murder, eh? - every assassination of a Muslim petty warlord/ gang boss/ chief assassin/ dictator/ king, by those eager to succeed him, all the way from the 7th century to the 21st. (And note the sly, backstabbing reference to Israel, slipped in almost as an aside). All of it intended to try to push our postcolonialist guilt buttons.
My response: GARBAGE.
Yes, at different times, some non-Muslim neighbours, whether foolish or clever, have attempted to get involved in the murderous labyrinth of intra-umma politics. No more and no less than they have, historically, meddled in one another's affairs, for good or ill.
But the Islamosphere is NOT INNOCENT. Muslim individuals, groups and regimes, obeying the jihad imperative, are perpetually pushing the boundaries against their Infidel neighbours, using every conceivable dirty trick, bribery, corruption, dissimulation, fake treaties, infiltration, assassination, spying, lying, armed robbery raiding, and smiling dissimulators whose sole aim is to 'split the camp' of the Infidels. Think of how the 'palestinian' arab Muslims, during the cold war, played both sides against the middle, Soviet bloc against Western bloc (telling each side what it wanted to hear; stirring up strife; lying and pocketing the profits).
Islam is the Arab imperial religion, cooked up to sacralise and justify the empire of the Arabs and those whom they subjugated and conned into becoming ersatz arabs and carrying on the drive to turn the whole world into a simulacrum of the very worst that 7th century arab culture had to offer. If 'adabarez' wants to throw stones about imperialism and colonialism, they will bounce right back to smash his glass house - Islam, the Empire of Islam, has been one of the cruellest and most horrible imperial systems that has ever cursed the history of humanity.
Of course, the merest glance at history shows that internecine strife of a peculiar intractability and viciousness has proliferating WITHIN ISLAM from the very beginning, irrespective of what the neighbours were doing. The most blatant example of this is the Sunni vs. Shiite rift, originating immediately after ha-Meshugga's unheroic death.
Jacques Ellul, discussing jihad, 'struggle' and conflict, within the system of Islam, in his preface to Bat Yeor's 'Decline of Eastern Christianity Under Islam', remarks:
"since the *jihad* is not solely an external war, it can break out within the Muslim world itself - AND WARS AMONG MUSLIMS HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS, BUT ALWAYS WITH THE SAME FEATURES."
My final point involves the case of a Kurd, reared as a Muslim, who converted to Christianity because, while translating the gospels into Kurdish, he found their teaching so much more human-friendly than the Islamic culture in which he had been raised. Note particularly what he says about an attitude of aggression as the default setting WITHIN Islamic culture (not just toward outsiders).
"As he [the translator] became immersed in reading and translating the New Testament, he found that he was being deeply affected by it.
'He discovered that Christianity’s culture was quite different from that of Islam. Certain Bible teachings highlighted the differences strikingly.
“It totally changed me [he says] to deal with how you are taught to forgive people, to love people and live with them in peace. The Bible says ‘Love your enemies and your neighbours’ and ‘Treat your neighbour as you would like to be treated.’ This affected me.”
From then on, while still a Kurdish intellectual, “In my heart,” he says, “I believed in Jesus.”
“When I recognised the Bible, I learned to be flexible… to listen to people… to forgive them… and to be more patient. For example, if you are among Muslims, you would always fight. I don’t want to fight; I always wanted to convince people, to argue with them. … to understand them.”
Note well that observation: 'If you are among Muslims, you would always fight'.
This man's own natural and indeed commendable human inclination toward the use of intellect and reason, his reluctance to resolve disagreement by resorting to aggression, was NOT VALIDATED within Islam.
Q. E. D.
Posted by: dumbledoresarmy
at May 8, 2008 7:54 PM
PMK,
Your last post was a good analysis. I wandered somewhat off topic with my post about rice, but the intent was simply to try to inject some moderation into "nuke the bastards" rhetoric. It may very well transpire that events spiral out of control that end up leading to this, but war is a serious business, and it shouldn't be undertaken lightly, certainly not without a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of the blowback that will occur.
The economic dislocation that would likely occur globally would be substantial. In the supply/demand equation, acts of nature such as drought in Australia primarily affect the supply side, while oil prices affect both sides - the price of fertilizer depends on oil prices (hence the supply side) and the end prices of products that require shipping to the point of consumption also depend on oil prices (the demand side). The data on commodity prices provide a glimpse into the forces at play, hence my suggestion to check out the CBT charts. They don't tell the full story, of course, because they show only the effects, not the underlying causes. Nevertheless, I do think the run up of prices across the board indicates some underlying turmoil involving oil that hasn't yet been publicized. And conflict with Iran, especially nuclear conflict, would carry a heavy price. In working this cold calculus, we need a clear and dispassionate view of the cost/benefit ratio, and this includes identifying how much weight we want to attach to the various elements that enter into figuring both the costs and the benefits.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 9, 2008 3:35 AM
It's a little hard to tell, because of his over-usage of cliches, but unless Adabarez was deliberately trying to bait us I thought I could detect a hint of support for our side.
Adabarez, it would be great if you could perhaps be a little clearer about the matters you touch on in your post.
Posted by: Eastview
at May 9, 2008 3:47 AM
Dear Eastview and Friends,
All the nations build up their defences by weighing their regional dangers and prepare themselves accordingly; to deal with the particular 'offensive threat' posed by the enemy. History tells us that it is the spillage of blood of young brave men on the border lines which keeps the physical as well as visionary borders of nations in tact.
As said earlier that after the end of World War II, a normality in people lives was seen returning. Arabs were also seen leading their normal nomadic lives. The previous colonial oppressors had since gone. In Europe; people were also found tired of Word war II and after a long destructive war were desperately seeking an atmosphere of peace and serenity. This state of comparative calmness was expected to last long to avail a full recoup. It was also fore seen that probably old colonial adventure seekers may never come back to Middle East to revisit; but for the discovery of oil in Middle East and its high demand to run the western economies; the things started looking taking turn.
The western race to manipulate and grab the lucrative lands of oil resources came in play and this part of world once again was seen felling victim to a new colonial power known as western oil enterprises and many other ventures.
Time has passed by but now we know that for all practical purposes, in Middle East US is in full control of Middle Eastern affairs. The US dictates being a sole super power to the indigenous public are very clear. It all hems on one verdict; you are with us or against us.
In view of above the country like Iran which has elected not to surrender or be subjugated; finds it self surrounded from all sides; politically as well as militarily. It faces the enormous scale deployment of US naval and ground forces threatening its security. The Persian gulf is infested with US Naval ships and carriers with the ground and air forces deployed in the immediate vicinity in Green Zone Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, south Afghanistan and with the US Central command Head quarters (Centcom)at Al-Udeid air base, Doha, Qatar. Certainly they all are not there on some holiday excursions?
The west has the desire to keep the Middle East fully deprived of all sort of defensive or offensive weapons; Any effort of Iran to acquire the knowledge in the field of defence or weapons know how and ability to manufacture some potent arsenals may not go well with the US .
Where as from Iran point of view; when all the others are found subjugated; Iran stance to stand up to the oppressing forces has only one option left; to come up with a viable deterrents which gives them a hope of survivals of their nation, against all odds.
To attain the capability to build long range carouse missiles with the capacity of carrying the war head and weapon may be the only solution to ensure security. Even nuke may not be the weapon but it has a factor of deterrence which ensures the security and keeps the enemies at bay. Matter of the fact is that Iran ambitions to acquire nuke may not be any thing which is wrong. There is already a large stock piles of arsenals with the other stake holders in the area, held by them in the name of their security; if Iran also possess for its security; so what?
Allah also clearly warns the Muslims about their enemies: Al-Anfal [8:60],‘And make ready for them who fight you whatever you can of armed force and of mounted pickets at the frontier, whereby you may frighten the enemy of Allah and your enemy and others besides them whom you know not, but Allah knows them. And whatever you spend in the way of Allah, it shall be paid back to you in full and you shall not be wronged.’
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Adabarez
at May 9, 2008 6:41 PM
"allah" is Satan and muhammad was his demon messenger.
islam shall burn and perish from the Earth.
Posted by: CGW
at May 10, 2008 12:02 PM
CGW,
That will never, ever be the day when your wish will come to pass!
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Adabarez
at May 10, 2008 6:54 PM
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