The big problem is Kemal Ataturk rolling over in his grave. There also would be an increase in honor killings, child marriage and then, everyone's favorite, open season on infidels!

Posted by: tanstaafl at November 22, 2008 11:03 AM

Proust famously wrote: "All our final resolutions are made in a state of mind that is not going to last."

About all such solemn National Intelligence Assessments: "All our future assessments are made in a state of the world that is not going to last."

All kinds of possibilities suggest themselves.

Nothing here about possible mass unrest and political implosion in China. Nothing about China, first having systematically seeded the area with Chinese immigrants who will marry local girls, both much of Siberia and possibly, both for its oil and its farmland, Kazakhstan.

Nothing about the effect on India of the mass attempted exodus of Muslims from Bangladesh, fleeing rising sea levels.

Nothing about the likely implosion of Pakistan.

Nothing about the race for resources in Africa, the declines in food and in population, the sauve-qui-peut atmosphere that anthropogenic climate changes will undoubtedly cause. Nothing about the decline in the pseudo-ideal of "diversity" as the relative homogeneity of the population in the countries of East Asia --Japan, Korea, and especially China -- comes to be perceived in the Western world, wistfully, as a conceivable explanation of national strength.

And, another great omission, save for the prediction that Turkey will be more "Islamic," nothing about Islam and its encroachments on the West.

Nothing about the islamization of Western Europe through demographic conquest, or at least not a word in this National Intelligence Assessment about the much greater expense, and insecurity, and unpleasantness of life, for non-Muslims in the countries of Western Europe.

Nothing, in this prediction, about how the natural (and therefore predictable) reactions of peoples and polities to this or that development will render the other predictions less likely of fulfillment. Will the West, for example, come to its senses about the malignant uses of oil revenues by Muslim states, and work to diminish those revenues, or to cause them to be used up (why, for example, right now, is the Pentagon not insisting that Saudi Arabia and the lesser sheikdoms pay the West for sea-lane security? Or pay to keep the Sunnis from being overwhelmed in Iraq? Or pay for Pakistan's permanent upkeep -- or don't the Arabs care whether Pakistan implodes, and if they don't, then why should we?)

It's fun though. It keeps people off the streets. It could be a party game.

National Intelligence Assessment. You have a big computer screen on which is depicted the map of the world. Each player gets to move boundary lines around, based on a plausible explanation. Each player gets to type in his predictions of what's to come, and in what order, and to explain what his reasons are. And then they are read out, to the assembled crowd of merrymakers, and they can laugh appreciatively, or laugh to scorn, or animatedly discuss, what's to come.

What's to come?

What's to come is still unsure. In delay there lies no plenty.

You likely know the rest. But if you don't, just brush up your Shakespeare. And don't leave home without him. He'll be your mental ballast. He'll stand you in good stead, whatever does or does not come true, in that National Intelligence Assessment.

Posted by: Hugh at November 22, 2008 11:05 AM

They might as well change the country's name, given that the one founded by Kemal Ataturk is dead.
An Islamic ally in NATO? Who'd have ever thought it possible?

OT, Libya wants to take advantage of its new relationship with the US by "sending thousands of students" to the US.

Posted by: PMK at November 22, 2008 11:47 AM

Not only is Islamisation currently happening in Europe, but our European masters want to bring in Turkey as a member of the EU. Can you imagine that?
Not only have the West not condoned the Islamisation of Kosovo and it becoming a separate Islamic state within Europe but they want to allow Turkey to join, instantly flooding Europe with 20 million Muslims free to travel wherever and no doubt heading straight to the UK, to either open up Kebab shops and/or Minimarkets and of course to become part of the fifth column and help with the UK's Islamisation.
Many people also forget that Turkey is the gateway to the Middle East and if Turkey joins then this will call the beginning of the end of Europe.

This is madness.

Posted by: Richard the Lionheart at November 22, 2008 12:00 PM

Who knows, by 2025 even Britain could be a stronger, islamic country.
Hip Hip ...!

Posted by: Hermit at November 22, 2008 12:11 PM

To Hugh's list of uncertainties could be added what was only alluded to in the article, but which is probably not so uncertain, a "...post-clerically run Iran." Clearly the author is looking to the future, and his propensity to project based on his clear biases notwithstanding, seems to be predicting that both Turkey and Iran will move toward shariah-based systems.

When Turkey finally abandons its quest for EU membership and accepts its historical role of dominant regional power, one might expect pressure to build for all the countries in the region to move toward a common model. One could easily imagine Turkey turning its energies toward reconstituting part of the historical Ottoman sphere of influence. Maybe even to re-establishing the caliphate.

Posted by: Eastview at November 22, 2008 12:20 PM

I heard President Sarkozy of France say that he doesn't want Turkey to join the EU because, as he put it, it is not a European nation (even though some 5% of its territory is on the European side of the Bosporus). Good for him. Clarity can be so refreshing.

Posted by: Wellington at November 22, 2008 12:20 PM

"Iran will move toward shariah-based systems."

move towards? this I've got to see.

Are we doing anything, anything at all to protect ourselves?
No
Too busy watching the TV, when the backlash comes is anyone going to be surprised, or are we all just expected to place our head on the block.

Posted by: Ian at November 22, 2008 12:31 PM

The same Sarkozy proudly announced that arabic is the second language of france and gleefully suggested that islam is a forward looking religion and we can all learn from it.

France is rapidly loosing its international influence and within a generation or less will become a fully fledged islamic country. Over a fifth of its newly born are muslims.

France is only important in frenchmen's imagination, no one else's.

Posted by: Hermit at November 22, 2008 12:35 PM

A stronger Islamic Turkey?

Sure why not, we have a stronger Islamic everything else, so why not Turkey.

Some people miss that though it's right under their noses.

Roberts book 'Stealth Jihad', explains how this
is coming about, so that those with eye's can see.

Posted by: duh_swami at November 22, 2008 12:43 PM

The issue I find of concern here is whether Turkey will be a doorway to the Middle East with the locks on Middle East side of the doors, or an open passage the North West. If the prior; anticipate greater and inflated cost; if the latter; that's what we have now - which is expensive enough.

Posted by: Shawmut at November 22, 2008 12:46 PM

Good point, Ian. I should have been more specific. My note was focused on the "post-clerically run Iran" idea and the concept that Turkey and Iran could both move toward a common, or at least very similar, government model having shariah as its ideological, if not necessarily its economic, foundations. This will mean more of Islam injected into Turkey's governmental model (yes, Kemal Ataturk will certainly spin in his grave), and some of the excesses removed from Iran's, including reducing the power of the mullahs (and the Ayatolla Khomeini will spin in his grave). How this would be effected in practice is hard to say. The point is that Turkey seems destined not to join the EU, but rather to start playing a larger role in the ME. And as it does so it will find its effectiveness will to some degree be directly proportional to its ability to identify with the essentially Islamic nature of the region.

Of course, neither Turkey nor Iran are Arab, so in this there is a wedge that could be exploited by the West.

Posted by: Eastview at November 22, 2008 12:55 PM

Eastview,

Sorry to disagree with you openely, but the comment a "...post-clerically run Iran." was made with the bias that somehow Iran would lose it's "Sharia" based system.

I noted it parenthetically, because Iran is Shia and they have their own faith and their own way much of is not condoned in Islam.

But anyway, the intelligence apparatus is projecting that somehow they see Iran losing it's Shia lead government a "...post-clerically run Iran." In other words, no Shia clerics in charge = more secular system.

Just my two bits...hope you are having a great weekend in the greatest nation on Earth...at least for now...India and China are rising you know.

Hey, as a second career, maybe they would let you and I drive a cab over there? Then we could be the annoying foreigner who can't read the map and is charging by the 1/9th of a mile to get people lost.

Peace
Abdullah Mikail

Posted by: Abdullah Mikail at November 22, 2008 12:55 PM

Hermit: Thanks for the update on Sarkozy. Sounds like he's straddling. Let's hope he was sincere respecting what he said about Turkey and insincere respecting his comments about Arabic and Islam, which may have been put forth for reasons of domestic expediency. Don't know. Do agree with you regarding France's exaggerated sense of its own self-importance and the alarming Muslim birth rate, which points to a demographic Armageddon for the French.

Posted by: Wellington at November 22, 2008 12:59 PM

Almost all the European main stream political parties are for Turkey joining the EU. Negotiations have been undergoing for years.

Infact most of the opposition to Turkey's application to join this alliance of nincompoops and surrender monkeys, otherwise known as the EU come from the Turkish themselves.

Posted by: Hermit at November 22, 2008 1:03 PM

Hermit,

I think the main roadblock to the Turkish acceptance into the EU has to do with the status of Cyprus, doesn't it?

Peace
Abdullah Mikail

Posted by: Abdullah Mikail at November 22, 2008 1:12 PM

The status of Cyprus is done and dusted. EU wants the status quo: an island divided. When was the last time Cyprus was in the news? Greeks are fearful of Turks and even more of the wider jihadi conflict that they could attract by upsetting the cart. If anything, I fear Cyprus could be handed to the Turks on a plate by the British, for it was the mess of their creation in the first place.

Posted by: Hermit at November 22, 2008 1:33 PM

Abdullah, it's not clear the author of the article meant that a "...post-clerically run Iran" would involve abandoning shariah. Rather, he seemed to be alluding to a modernization of the government to remove some of the excessively brutal aspects of shariah-based mullah rule. In fact, when you see that even Iraq and Afghanistan built their present constitutions carefully mindful of shariah, even while under our watchful tutelage, it hardly seems likely that any of the Islamic majority countries in the region would evolve toward voluntarily abandoning shariah completely.

On whether Turkey will eventually be successful in joining the the EU, my prediction is that it will not, at least not as a full member, all the fine words of the diplomats notwithstanding. In my travels to Europe and discussions with Europeans, there is an absolutely huge bias against it, largely over cultural issues, and that sentiment is not reflected in the words of the diplomats. Cyprus is just an excuse needed to drag their feet. (Remember, Greece still carries clear memories of what it was like to live under Ottoman rule). Eventually Turkey will give up the quest for full EU membership, settle for some form of associate status, and turn its energies to becoming the dominant regional power again.

Posted by: Eastview at November 22, 2008 1:34 PM

There is not a Cyprus or Greek problem for Turkey because the West has decided that Turkey is more important.
But there is a Russia problem for Greece.
Nationalists have understood that US ambandoned them and turn towards Russia.Leftists were pro- Russia already since Soviet days.
The only way to prevent this is to flood Greece with Muslim immigrants -this of course will create other problems later.

Posted by: athenian at November 22, 2008 2:24 PM

Abdullah M Quasi apostate...'I noted it parenthetically, because Iran is Shia and they have their own faith and their own way much of is not condoned in Islam'.

So Iranian Mohammadans are apostates with their own religion not condoned by Islam

Who says it's not condoned by Islam, You?

Do you speak for Islam?

Who gave you the authority to do that?

Some more dashed credibility...

You must be one of those Shiaphobes...

Posted by: duh_swami at November 22, 2008 2:48 PM

Silly Dhimmis! Why comment on a Turkish summary when you can read the original NIC report?

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

Posted by: skevin at November 22, 2008 5:24 PM

skevin,

Thanks for the link. It's a good top down view of the world, although it is heavy on bland diplomatic double-speak and reads rather like an extended Thomas Friedman op-ed piece in the NYT.

Some snippets about Turkey relevant to the discussion above:

"Although immigrant communities are unlikely to gain sufficient parliamentary representation to dictate either domestic or foreign policy agendas by 2025, Muslim-related issues will be a growing focus and shaper of the European political scene. Ongoing societal and political tension over integration of Muslims is likely to make European policymakers increasingly sensitive to the potential domestic repercussions of any foreign policies for the Middle East, including aligning too closely with the US on policies seen as pro-Israeli." p 25.

"The question of Turkey’s EU membership will be a test of Europe’s outward focus between now and 2025. Increasing doubts about Turkey’s chances are likely to slow its implementation of political and human rights reforms. Any outright rejection risks wider repercussions, reinforcing arguments in the Muslim world—including among Europe’s Muslim minorities—about the incompatibility of the West and Islam." p 33.
My prediction is that Turkey will not become a member of EU.

"Indonesia, Turkey and a post-clerically run Iran—states that are predominantly Islamic, but which fall outside the Arab core—appear well-situated for growing international roles." p 35. This is where the "post-clerically run" remark appears. It is noncommittal about what this means, but I will stick to my interpretations above based on a general understanding of geopolitical events and trends.

"Turkey’s recent economic track record of increased growth, the vitality of Turkey’s emerging middle class and its geostrategic locale raise the prospect of a growing regional role in the Middle East. Economic weaknesses such as its heavy dependence on external energy sources may help to spur it toward a greater international role as Turkish authorities seek to develop their ties with energy suppliers—including close neighbors Russia and Iran—and bolster its position as a transit hub. Over the next 15 years, Turkey’s most likely course involves a blending of Islamic and nationalist strains, which could serve as a model for other rapidly modernizing countries in the Middle East." p 36. Note the "blending of Islamic and nationalistic" in the last sentence. This is code for a relaxation of Kemalism in Turkey.

"The force of ideology is likely to be strongest in the Muslim world—particularly the Arab core. In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction." p ix.
This, of course, is an understated summary of those events in the Muslim world that are discussed daily on this blog.

Posted by: Eastview at November 22, 2008 8:28 PM

This is way off. There will be World War IV in the next 15 years. Islam will make itself intolerable, as it always does once it starts to show its true colors, which it always does once a Muslim population gets high enough in a particular land. Europe will simply rid itself of Islam, or, more likely, we will rid Europe of Islam, and it won't be pretty. Our next president will be a right-wing hawk after the mess that Biden gets us in (maybe Obama, but I'm not counting on it). Japan will of course beat us to the water vapor car, but we will be free of out dependence on foreign oil, and every Islamic state will rapidly decline. Turkey will go Middle Eastern, not EU-ward. If they were secularizing the EU might accept them, but they're 3rd-world and Islamic and this trend will only continue. China will certainly increase in power but will remain just as isolationist. They have become much more capitalistic in recent years, and more productive, and they're not turning back. India will probably have another civil war, and maybe another partition. The Bangladeshis will be pushed out. And they aren't fleeing because of rising sea levels. They are fleeing the inevitability of their hellhole Muslim state, which is the future of every Muslim state -- to be Pakistan or Bangladesh. They also have the highest birth rate, which accelerates this effect. Because of all the warring, and only because of it, America will remain just as powerful. Canada will be over and done with, absolutely 3rd-world. Russia will be half-Islamic, and also in rapid decline. This world will be more Islamic in 15 years, but Islam will be more isolated. And more isolated. And then it will implode/cannibalize, but not for another 50-60 years at least.

Posted by: jdamn at November 23, 2008 12:46 AM