From “Results Show Islamic Parties Surging Ahead in Iraqi Vote” in the New York Times (thanks to Jerry Gordon):
BAGHDAD, Feb. 5 – Shiite religious parties moved closer to an overwhelming electoral sweep in southern Iraq and Baghdad, as the first results in contests for local governing councils showed those parties, many with ties to neighboring Iran, leading in all nine provinces that have had a substantial number of their votes counted….
A leading figure in a Christian political party that had boycotted the elections was kidnapped Saturday on the road between Baghdad and the northern city of Mosul, Iraqi officials in the city reported. The man, Enas Ebrahim al-Youssefi, had recently been involved in a dispute over whether to fly the Iraqi or the Kurdish flag over the city council building in his home town, just north of Mosul, one of the officials said….
Mr. Lami and Dr. Ayar continued to play down reports of widespread election irregularities in the vicinity of Mosul, although they said the incidents would be checked. Some local officials have claimed that hundreds of thousands of Kurdish Christians were prevented from voting because balloting materials did not arrive. “There are complaints that are serious,” Mr. Lami said.…
And what do the victorious Shi’ites plan to do? From “Leading Shiite Clerics Pushing Islamic Constitution in Iraq,” also in the Times:
AJAF, Iraq, Feb. 4 – With religious Shiite parties poised to take power in the new constitutional assembly, leading Shiite clerics are pushing for Islam to be recognized as the guiding principle of the new constitution.
Exactly how Islamic to make the document is the subject of debate.
At the very least, the clerics say, the constitution should ensure that legal measures overseeing personal matters like marriage, divorce and family inheritance fall under Shariah, or Koranic law. For example, daughters would receive half the inheritances of sons under that law.
On other issues, opinion varies, with the more conservative leaders insisting that Shariah be the foundation for all legislation….
And Shiite politicians, recognizing a possible backlash from secular leaders and the Americans, have publicly promised not to install a theocracy similar to that of Iran, or allow clerics to run the country. But the clerics of Najaf, the holiest city of Shiite Islam, have emerged as the greatest power in the new Iraq. They forced the Americans to conform to their timetable for a political process. Their standing was bolstered last Sunday by the high turnout among Shiite voters and a widespread boycott by the Sunni Arabs, and the clerics will now wield considerable behind-the-scenes influence in the writing of the constitution through their coalition built around religious parties….
The leading Shiite clerics say they have no intention of taking executive office and following the Iranian model of wilayat al-faqih, or direct governance by religious scholars. But the clerics also say the Shiite politicians ultimately answer to them, and that the top religious leaders, collectively known as the marjaiya, will shape the constitution through the politicians.
Some effects are already being felt locally. In Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, where one of Ayatollah Sistani’s closest aides has enormous influence, Shiite religious parties have been transforming the city into an Islamic fief since the toppling of Mr. Hussein. Militias have driven alcohol sellers off the streets. Women are harassed if they walk the streets in anything less than head-to-toe black. Conservative judges are invoking Shariah in some courts.
I have seen this coming for a long time.