Walid Phares writes in FrontPage about why the elections in Lebanon might not be all they’re cracked up to be, with thanks to EPG.
The last round of legislative elections ended June 19 in North Lebanon, completing a month-long process that gave the country a new assembly of 128 members. No violence marred the four rounds of voting; however, charges of corruption were raised, and many in the West, including those within the circles that supported the “Cedar Revolution,” are struggling to understand the results. Any honest observer must admit Lebanon’s politics are complex. Unfortunately, the simple analysis of the elections that the media offers is not completely accurate…
The international media has reported the same basic analysis about the elections: according to election returns and party affiliations, the “Lebanese national opposition,” led by Saadeddine Hariri carried 72 seats, a clear majority, to form the next Lebanese government. Hariri’s allies include the Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt (14 seats), the Lebanese Forces Party of jailed leader Samir Geagea (6 seats), and the Qornet Shehwan grouping (3 seats). According to this analysis, the “opposition” to the present Syrian-dominated government won the election, which therefore shifted the Lebanese to a moderate, pro-Western sphere.
This analysis is based on political reports out of Lebanon since the assassination in February of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, reports which included the million-plus people who flocked to downtown Beirut on March 14 to demand their independence from Syria. In the minds of viewers and governments around the world, those who led the protests that day are the heirs to a free, democratic Lebanon. Hence, Hariri, the son of the assassinated leader, and Jumblatt were named the leaders of the anti-Syrian movement. All other groups participating in the march were defined as followers. When Hariri’s election lists scored a majority in parliament, the perception was that the anti-Syrians had won…
Another, more complete analysis of the Lebanese elections, however, paints a different picture. The Lebanese political system is a labyrinth, notorious for its complexities, and one that is often oversimplified by observers or redrawn to match accepted worldviews. It is still, in fact, unclear whether the emerging parliamentary alliance will deliver democracy and keep Syria at bay…
Read it all.