Just as I predicted before the Iraqi invasion began. This is not to say that a democratic state cannot be established in Iraq, or that it might not perdure. But it will, like Turkey, always be under pressure from the adherents of political Islam, and will have to buy its continued existence via a mixture of force and concessions. From AP:
BAGHDAD, Iraq – Soldiers, patients and prisoners began voting Monday in national elections, three days ahead of the general population, while insurgents denounced the balloting as a “satanic project” but did not threaten to attack polling stations.
The early voting went ahead despite the sound of detonations rumbling across the capital and at least 15 deaths in ongoing violence….
In a rare joint statement, Al-Qaida in Iraq and four other Islamic extremist groups denounced the election as a “satanic project” and said that “to engage in the so-called political process” violates “the legitimate policy approved by God.”
The groups vowed to “continue our jihad (holy war) … to establish an Islamic state ruled by the book (the Quran) and the traditions of the Prophet Muhammad.”
However, the statement contained no clear threat to disrupt voting as in the run-up to the Jan. 30 election and the Oct. 15 referendum on the constitution.
The authenticity of the statement could not be verified, but it appeared on a Web site that often publishes extremist material.