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Pakistan: 30% chance of military coup

May 9, 2009 8:33 am By Raymond Ibrahim

According to a report compiled before the Taliban overran Sway Valley. “Presumably, the risk of a military coup is far greater now.” What is the percentage of an Islamic coup? “30% chance of coup in Pakistan, according to analysts,” from the Times of India, May 8:

WASHINGTON: A top private risk analysis firm gave embattled Pakistan a three-in-ten chance of a military coup even before the latest offensive by Taliban rebels, according to a noted US analyst.

New York-based Eurasiagroup, whose head of research is top former State Department, White House National Security Council and CIA official David F Gordon, said in a little noticed, late April report that it was more than possible the Pakistani Army would step in to stabilise the rebel-threatened country.

The premise of Eurasiagroup’s “scenario” is that “the global economic crisis proves too much to handle for the political leadership in Pakistan”, writes Jeff Stein, National Security Editor of Congressional Quarterly in his “SpyTalk” column.

The report was evidently written before Islamic Taliban rebels overran the Swat Valley this month, forcing the army into barricaded camps and threatening the viability of the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, he noted adding, “Presumably, the risk of a military coup is far greater now.”…

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