Hizballebanon Update: Hizballah continues to expand what amounts to a parallel state, running roughshod over Lebanon’s sovereignty with the government in Beirut either unwilling or unable to assert itself. “Hezbollah’s relocation of rocket sites to Lebanon’s interior poses wider threat,” by Howard Schneider for the Washington Post, January 23:
BEIRUT — Hezbollah has dispersed its long-range-rocket sites deep into northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, a move that analysts say threatens to broaden any future conflict between the Islamist movement and Israel into a war between the two countries.
More than 10,000 U.N. troops now patrol traditional Hezbollah territory in southern Lebanon along the Israeli border, and several thousand Lebanese armed forces personnel also have moved into the area. A cross-border raid by Hezbollah guerrillas in summer 2006 triggered a month-long war that prompted the United Nations to deploy its force as part of a cease-fire.
The United Nations is confident that the dense presence of its troops in the comparatively small area is helping lower the risk of conflict and minimizing Hezbollah’s ability to move weapons across southern Lebanon, but analysts in Lebanon and Israel say the U.N. mission is almost beside the point.
Hezbollah’s redeployment and rearmament indicate that its next clash with Israel is unlikely to focus on the border, instead moving farther into Lebanon and challenging both the military and the government. The situation is important for U.S. efforts in the region, whether aimed at curbing the influence of Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran or at persuading Syria to moderate its stance toward Israel and its neighbors.
Hezbollah “learned their lesson” in 2006, when vital intelligence enabled the Israel Defense Forces to destroy the group’s long-range launch sites in the first days of the conflict, said reserve Gen. Aharon Zeevi Farkash, a former head of IDF intelligence. In effect, he said, “the ‘border’ is now the Litani River,” with Hezbollah’s rocket sites possibly extending north of Beirut.
In a December briefing, Brig. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, the IDF head of operations, said some Hezbollah rockets now have a range of more than 150 miles — making Tel Aviv reachable from as far away as Beirut. The Islamist group has talked openly of its efforts to rebuild, and Israel estimates that Hezbollah has about 40,000 projectiles, most of them shorter-range rockets and mortar shells.
The group “has been fortifying lots of different areas,” said Judith Palmer Harik, a Hezbollah scholar in Beirut. With U.N. and Lebanese forces “packed along the border,” she said, “we are looking at a much more expanded battle in all senses of the word.”…