Jamal Abdul Jawad, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, believes that in Libya, “the Islamist movements, whether extremist or moderate, are most important. In fact, they are the only organized group that could be effective in determining the future of Libya, during this conflict and after this conflict reaches an end.” Apparently Jawad didn’t get the memo explaining that these are all secular, pro-democracy movements, and that anyone who thinks otherwise is a greasy Islamophobe.
“Tribal Dynamics Set Libya Apart From Neighbors,” by Abubakar Siddique and Joseph Hammond for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 25 (thanks to Thomas Pellow):
Jamal Abdul Jawad, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has a more dire prediction….
According to Egyptian analyst Jawad, many Libyans have a close connection with radical and moderate Islamist movements.
Many Libyans have made it to the leadership of Al-Qaeda. And even the Libyan version of the Muslim Brotherhood has a more radical and tribal outlook compared to the Egyptian version of political groups who are conditioned by operating in relatively open societies with a history of more liberal politics.
“The Islamist movements, whether extremist or moderate, are most important,” Jawad says. “In fact, they are the only organized group that could be effective in determining the future of Libya, during this conflict and after this conflict reaches an end.”
Akl says the best hope for Libya now is some kind of a coalition between the tribal forces, the elites, and the military.
“Chaos is inevitable. Civil war is questionable because it depends on the manner in which Qaddafi will actually leave Libya or the manner in which he will act in the coming days.”
Ultimately, Akl concludes, the future of the country now lies in the hands of those with access to wealth and information.
“There are no political forces working inside Libya, there are no political parties, [and] there is a very weak civil society,” Akl says. “So you are actually talking about the elites, that is the tribe leaders, the university professors, and the religious scholars.”