True to form, Egypt’s military regime has been busily playing up “foreign hands” and “agents,” playing to already rampant public paranoia (often laced with antisemitism) to manipulate the population. Note also that the Muslim Brotherhood is using the occasion to agitate for expedited elections, which will only benefit them by denying newer groups the time to organize and campaign.
The dead were buried on Monday, more than two dozen Christian Egyptian protesters mowed down by their own military, an army that had won praise back in February for refusing to turn its weapons on demonstrators. After Sunday night’s violence, which left 24 dead and more than 270 wounded, according to the Egyptian Health Ministry, the Arab Spring seems a long time ago. A military council led by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi is now in charge of Egypt, and it is resurrecting many of the tactics of deposed President Hosni Mubarak to instill fear and keep the citizenry in line, like using state TV to spread sectarian suspicion and conspiratorial talk of “foreign hands” sowing internal discord.
Sunday’s march in Cairo by Coptic Christians “” with a fair smattering of sympathetic Muslim participation as well “” started out as a peaceful protest against the recent burning of a church by ultraconservative Muslims and the perceived lackadaisical response by the ruling military junta to a spate of anti-Christian attacks since Mubarak’s ouster. Events rapidly devolved into chaos, with live ammunition fired, clouds of tear gas released and protesters crushed and killed by military vehicles that reportedly rammed into them. Some protesters responded by throwing rocks.
State TV had another narrative: a violent mob of Christians sparked the melee by attacking the military, killing several soldiers. Breathless anchors urged “honorable” citizens to head down along the Nile to the national media building at Maspero to help soldiers defend themselves and public property. The clashes reignited on Monday, when Christians pelted security forces with rocks outside the Cairo hospital where the bodies of victims were taken the previous night. The Coptic church on Monday disputed state TV’s claims, saying there was no evidence that Christian protesters shot at soldiers. Church officials called for a three-day fast to protest the events.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s Essam el-Erian condemns the violence, telling TIME that this is a critical period for the country, a “time for solidarity, to implement a state of law, and to make reconciliation between all sections of society.”
Egypt’s Christians, who make up about 10% of the country’s 80 million or so people, have watched warily as Salafists and other ultraconservative Muslims, long kept underfoot by Mubarak, have begun exercising their political rights “” and influence “” in the wake of the February revolution. At 8 million or so, Egypt’s Copts are easily one of the biggest Christian communities in the Middle East, but unlike the much smaller Christian population in Lebanon, for example, they lack political muscle. (Lebanon is the only country in the Middle East with a Christian head of state mandated by political consensus.)
It’s a trying period for the Middle East’s dwindling Christian communities as secular pan-Arab, anti-Islamist regimes fall by the wayside and leave political vacuums in their place. The precedent of Iraq looms large. There were some 800,000 Christians in the country before the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 toppled Saddam Hussein. Since then, hundreds of thousands have fled the war-ravaged state. In majority-Sunni Syria, the minority Christians have largely sided with Bashar Assad’s brutal regime in public, fearful of what may follow it, although many prominent Christians are also part of the opposition. “This is a dangerous period, one that will determine in which direction the country is going,” says Emad Gad, a Copt and leader of the Egyptian Social Democratic party. “Are we taking the first steps toward creating a real state or are we going toward sectarian conflict and war?”
Sunday’s violence in Cairo has significance beyond the country’s religious divisions. This is a wider conflict in which Egyptians of all religions are turning against a military regime that just eight months ago was hailed for ensuring a peaceful transfer of power after Mubarak was forced from office. The fruits of Egypt’s revolution have yet to be savored by millions who hoped a quick revolution would bring even quicker economic, social and political benefits. The economy has slumped, and the generals “” who initially pledged to hand back power to a civilian administration in six months “” seem increasingly comfortable at the helm. Their recently announced electoral timetable would keep them in charge until presidential elections in 2013, much to the ire of many. “I don’t think we’ll have elections at all,” Gad says, echoing a sentiment relayed on Twitter and other social media. “I think that the army let the violence happen so that it could cancel the elections and remain in power.”
The Brotherhood’s el-Erian warns against any delay to the elections. “We cannot move forward without elections,” he tells TIME. “We can overcome all of these trials with solidarity and national consensus … The people are waiting for elections and to have a new system.”
Winter is coming:
As the exuberance of Arab Spring becomes a faraway memory in the Middle East, a counterrevolution is gaining ground, exploiting the sectarianism that power brokers in the region have long used to keep their populations at bay. Will Egyptians and other Arabs see through it? Or will they be sucked into its vortex? What happens next on Cairo’s streets will be critical.