John Maguire doesn’t say it, but another reason why the CIA was completely wrongfooted by the advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was because the Obama Administration has completely deemphasized the jihad threat, and pretended that al Qaeda was the only jihad group. An obscure offshoot of al Qaeda in a country Obama was anxious to forget was not likely to be the object of serious analysis.
“CIA OFFICER: We Had No Idea Militants Would Seize Iraqi Cities,” by Ken Dilanian, Associated Press, June 25, 2014 (thanks to Kenneth):
WASHINGTON (AP) — When John Maguire was a CIA officer in Beirut in the late 1980s during that country’s bloody civil war, he spent weeks living in safe houses far from the U.S. Embassy, dodging militants who wanted to kidnap and kill Americans.
“We moved all over the city, and we would not sleep in the same place two nights in a row,” Maguire said.
In Iraq in 2014, by contrast, CIA officers have been largely hunkered down in their heavily fortified Baghdad compound since U.S. troops left the country in 2011, current and former officials say, allowing a once-rich network of intelligence sources to wither. Maguire and other current and former U.S. officials say the intelligence pullback is a big reason the U.S. was caught flat footed by the recent offensive by a Sunni-backed al-Qaida-inspired group that has seized a large swath of Iraq.
Iraq is emblematic, they say, of how a security-conscious CIA is finding it difficult to spy aggressively in dangerous environments without military protection. Intelligence blind spots have left the U.S. behind the curve on fast-moving world events, they say, whether it’s disintegration in Iraq, Russia’s move into Crimea or the collapse of several governments during the Arab Spring.
“This is a glaring example of the erosion of our street craft and our tradecraft and our capability to operate in a hard place,” said Maguire, who helped run CIA operations in Iraq in 2004. “The U.S. taxpayer is not getting their money’s worth.”
The CIA declined immediate comment, but allies in Congress and some former agency officials strenuously dispute the criticism, saying that the intelligence community provided plenty of warning to the Obama administration that the insurgent Islamic State in Iraq and Levant, known as ISIL, could move on Iraqi cities.
“This was not an intelligence failure — this was a policy failure,” said Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican and chairman of the House intelligence committee.
However, while U.S. intelligence officials predicted that ISIL would attempt to seize territory in Iraq this year, they did not appear to anticipate ISIL’s offensive on June 10 to seize Mosul, which created a momentum that led to other successes. Officials also expressed surprise at how quickly the Iraqi army collapsed. And military leaders contemplating quick airstrikes said there was not enough intelligence to know what to hit.
A senior U.S. intelligence official who briefed reporters this week acknowledged that “a lot of the (intelligence) collection that we were receiving diminished significantly following the U.S. withdrawal in Iraq in 2011, when we lost some of the ‘boots on the ground’ view of what was going on.” Under rules for such briefings, the official spoke on condition that her name not be used.
In the same briefing, the official disclosed that U.S. intelligence did not know who controlled Iraq’s largest oil refinery. And she suggested that one of the biggest sources of intelligence for American analysts is Facebook and Twitter postings….
King Dave says
It shouldn’t matter ones politics concerning global threats. We know a majority of the liberal public are purely ignorant about all things Islam. The only things they truly understand about the Muslim world is how to dismiss Islamic violence and their victims
I’ve concluded that in the US intelligence departments, lack of information is purely the result of ineptness.
Charlie Griffith says
Re:
“I’ve concluded that in the US intelligence departments, lack of information is purely the result of ineptness.”
Be careful how you use “purely” and “ineptness” in regard to secret stuff going on quite beyond the knowledge of the direct participants.
Think of your own day job, or night job. How much do your really know what John wrote in that memo to the Boss which was mentioned just outside the cafeteria by Harry who was really, really peeved about what the Boss said last week to him about the escape holes written in that new contract?
Also, didn’t your girlfriend’s brother-in-law who works for your competitor give you some interesting gossip just heard about that new detergent they’re developing? How true was that? Who else is she sleeping with?…..on and on and on.
Is this ineptness or careful “planting”? …hmmmmmm?
Think of Malaysian Airlines and that “missing” airliner. Ineptness? ……really? ….hmmmmm.
King Dave says
Even worse then.
In the face of Islamic terrorism, the world’s most powerful nations are powerless to prevent it. That seems quite obvious
Charlie Griffith says
Preventing terrorism is a giant whack-a-mole contest.
Our massive firepower and well trained and disciplined [uniformed] troops are no match for the scruffily dressed bearded “dude” with an explosive vest and/or a sagging backpack with those wires dangling on the side, standing on that subway platform, twitching and waiting for the next train.
Calling out a warning and tackling that “dude” is “profiling”, “prejudice” and “racism”.
This is what we have to learn to fight. So far we’re politically unable to stand up to our own cultural problem here.
Charlie Griffith says
…..add this:
…..a classic case of us [i.e. here inside our America] being “…hoist on our own petard”.
Other countries have their own, and differing variations of this nastiness. But I still will continue to always object to the widely held attitude of “…let the Americans handle it.”
Jay Boo says
The US government would not need to do whack a mole in the first place if it (and the MSM enablers) simply told the truth about the ‘religion’ of Islam.
The solution is not LESS mocking of the prophet of Islam and his vile ideology but more.
The future belongs only to those willing to issue an all out criticism and mock fest against the pathetically obvious evil hoax of Islam.
Islam needs to be placed face-down into the depths of its own stink and shamed non-stop, 24 hours day and night.
carol t says
A read of George Tenet’s book, regardless of what one thinks of him, portrays politicized policymaking, shortsightedness of goals, etc., as causative factors that have been well know. Ex: Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc, for ex, pushing agendas for short-term gain…not a new phenom, if not a complete picture of the sitrep. The bureacracies are broken….
Kepha says
The CIA excels in technological intelligence, but its human intelligence–having and controlling human assets behind hostile or potentially hostile lines–has been a joke since the 1970’s. Part of the reason is that the USA gets very squeamish about dealing with the lowlifes, but who else is going to sell out his own country or movement?
Charlie Griffith says
Re:
“…… but its human intelligence–having and controlling human assets behind hostile or potentially hostile lines–has been a joke since the 1970′s. ”
Again, how can you be so sure of that?
duh_swami says
It’s those darned ‘militants’ again. A militant, unchecked will morph into a ‘radical’, then into an ‘extremest’. But we all know, because ‘big shots’ have told us, that this has nothing to do with Islam. We all know, because we have been told by ‘big shots’, that inner spiritual struggle jihad for personal purity, prevents militants from becoming ‘radical’s. And we know, because ‘big shots; have told us, that ‘Islam is the ‘Religion of Peace’…So, it’s not even possible for Islam to be responsible for anything these ‘militant , ‘radical’, ‘extremists ‘ do. We know that because the’ big shots’ have told us so……Sometimes I think those ‘big shots’ are lying…
Rdlake says
Like Obama, they learned it from the news services.
Margery A Allen says
Our leaders are always ignorant. OMG, I’ve been tracking this ISIS/ISIL for a year or more, but the brains at the Pentagon didn’t start tracking them until a couple weeks ago? The media, too! Bunch of fools! It’s the common people who have to be vigilant about everything. Our leaders won’t save us!
Transmaster says
If you want to understand Why the Sultan of Stupid, The Obama, does nothing about terrorism read the newly out book Blood Feud: The Clintons vs. the Obamas, by Ed Klein. The Sultan of Stupid can’t fart without Valerie Jarrett’s permission. He does nothing because Jarrett actually lectures the President of the United State that he is not a “War President” and he is only to concern himself with changing the United States to a European style socialist state. The State Department under Hillary was ignored, and with The Buffoon of State Kerry this is, all foreign policy comes from the White house and Michelle Obama, Valerie Jarret, and Obama.
el-cid says
In fact this is simple to understand.
Prior to the election, Obama would do nothing or say nothing that could harm his chances for re-election. The myth that the “war on terror is over” was the big lie that Americans wanted to hear (and still do). He eviscerated the CIA and homeland security to stop the messages reaching the press. He made up stuff to explain Bengazi.
You can learn these tactics from the memoirs of his coach, Bill Clinton, who said that he was entirely aware of the threat of radical islam PRIOR to the first attack on the world trade center, but ignored it because there was no political capital to be gained through confronting it. It was only a political liability.
This is both a problem with our leaders (e.g. Obama) and with the system that creates them. Someone who speaks the truth, would they be elected? Unlikely.
Charlie Griffith says
@dumbledoresarmy
June 27, 2014 at 2:31 am…
Excellent point.
Here in the U.S.A. we’ve got a very nasty situation called “political correctness” joined at the neck with the knee-jerk application of terms such as “racism, prejudice and profiling”, then and add here a liberal “mainstream” media which is totally in thrall of our first elected president who calls himself “Black” while actually being half White.
This current president of ours has been actually re-elected in spite of his eclectic [!] background and apparently pro-Muslim attitude, overt and/or covert. And, in spite of his theoretically “public” records having been sealed. I’ve no idea who engineered that caper; so, that term most apt term “Orwellian” has been overused here with good reason.
We Americans are in one helluva mess. But, generally I’m remaining optimistic in the long run because we manage to survive as a Nation despite our sometimes very peculiar presidents. After Franklin Roosevelt’s four terms in office, we limit our presidents to only two terms now by law.
Charlie Griffith says
…apologies for not being too quick in my editing.