Israel may have to act unilaterally, simply in order to survive. This is Obama’s most spectacular betrayal (among many) of a U.S. ally.
“Exclusive: Cornered but unbound by nuclear pact, Israel reconsiders military action against Iran,” by Michael Wilner, Jerusalem Post, November 22, 2014:
WASHINGTON – Historic negotiations with Iran will reach an inflection point on Monday, as world powers seek to clinch a comprehensive deal that will, to their satisfaction, end concerns over the nature of its vast, decade-old nuclear program.
But reflecting on the deal under discussion with The Jerusalem Post on the eve of the deadline, Israel has issued a stark, public warning to its allies with a clear argument: Current proposals guarantee the perpetuation of a crisis, backing Israel into a corner from which military force against Iran provides the only logical exit.
The deal on the table
World powers have presented Iran with an accord that would restrict its nuclear program for roughly ten years and cap its ability to produce fissile material for a weapon during that time to a minimum nine-month additional period, from the current three months.
Should Tehran agree, the deal may rely on Russia to convert Iran’s current uranium stockpile into fuel rods for peaceful use. The proposal would also include an inspection regime that would attempt to follow the program’s entire supply chain, from the mining of raw material to the syphoning of that material to various nuclear facilities across Iran.
Israel’s leaders believe the best of a worst-case scenario, should that deal be reached, is for inspections to go perfectly and for Iran to choose to abide by the deal for the entire decade-long period.
But “our intelligence agencies are not perfect,” an Israeli official said. “We did not know for years about Natanz and Qom. And inspection regimes are certainly not perfect. They weren’t in the case in North Korea, and it isn’t the case now – Iran’s been giving the IAEA the run around for years about its past activities.”
“What’s going to happen with that?” the official continued. “Are they going to sweep that under the rug if there’s a deal?”
On Saturday afternoon, reports from Vienna suggested the P5+1 – the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany – are willing to stop short of demanding full disclosure of any secret weapon work by Tehran.
Speaking to the Post, a senior US official rejected concern over limited surveillance capabilities, during or after a deal.
“If we can conclude a comprehensive agreement, we will have significantly more ability to detect covert facilities – even after its duration is over – than we do today,” the senior US official said. “After the duration of the agreement, the most intrusive inspections will continue: the Additional Protocol – which encompasses very intrusive transparency, and which Iran has already said it will implement – will continue.”
But compounding Israel’s fears, the proposal Jerusalem has seen shows that mass dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – including the destruction, and not the mere warehousing, of its parts – is no longer on the table in Vienna.
“Iran’s not being asked to dismantle the nuclear infrastructure,” the Israeli official said, having seen the proposal before the weekend. “Right now what they’re talking about is something very different. They’re talking about Ayatollah Khamenei allowing the P5+1 to save face.”
Officials in the Netanyahu government are satisfied that their ideas and concerns have been given a fair hearing by their American counterparts. They praise the US for granting Israel unprecedented visibility into the process.
But while those discussions may have affected the talks at the margins, large gaps – on whether to grant Iran the right to enrich uranium, or allow it to keep much of its infrastructure – have remained largely unaddressed.
“It’s like the chemical weapons deal in Syria,” the official said. “They didn’t just say: Here, let’s get rid of the stockpile and the weapons, but we will leave all the plants and assembly lines.”
‘Sunset clause’
Yet, more than any single enforcement standard or cap included in the deal, Israel believes the Achilles’ heel of the proposed agreement is its definitive end date – the sunset clause.
“You’ve not dismantled the infrastructure, you’ve basically tried to put limits that you think are going to be monitored by inspectors and intelligence,” said the official, “and then after this period of time, Iran is basically free to do whatever it wants.”
The Obama administration also rejects this claim. By e-mail, the senior US administration official said that, “‘following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its duration, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT – with an emphasis on non-nuclear weapon.”
“That has in no way changed,” the American official continued, quoting the interim Joint Plan of Action reached last year.
But the treatment of Iran as any other signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty –189 countries are members, including Iran – would allow Tehran to ultimately acquire “an industrial-sized capability,” the Israelis say. “The breakout times [to a nuclear weapon] will be effectively zero.”
Israel and world powers seek to maximize the amount of time they would have to identify non-compliance from a nuclear deal, should Iran choose to defy its tenets and build a bomb.
But in the deal under discussion in Vienna, Iran would be able to comply with international standards for a decade and, from Israel’s perspective, then walk, not sneak, into the nuclear club.
“You’ve not only created a deal that leaves Iran as a threshold nuclear power today, because they have the capability to break out quickly if they wanted to,” the Israeli official contended. “But you’ve also legitimized Iran as a military nuclear power in the future.”
From the moment this deal is clinched, Israel fears it will guarantee Iran as a military nuclear power. There will be no off ramp, because Iran’s reentry into the international community will be fixed, a fait accompli, by the very powers trying to contain it.
“The statement that says we’ve prevented them from having a nuclear weapon is not a true statement,” the Israeli official continued. “What you’ve said is, you’re going to put restrictions on Iran for a given number of years, after which there will be no restrictions and no sanctions. That’s the deal that’s on the table.”
Revisiting the use of force
Without an exit ramp, Israel insists its hands will not be tied by an agreement reached this week, this month or next, should it contain a clause that ultimately normalizes Iran’s home-grown enrichment program.
On the surface, its leadership dismisses fears that Israel will be punished or delegitimized if it disrupts an historic, international deal on the nuclear program with unilateral military action against its infrastructure.
By framing the deal as fundamentally flawed, regardless of its enforcement, Israel is telling the world that it will not wait to see whether inspectors do their jobs as ordered.
“Ten, fifteen years in the life of a politician is a long time,” the Israeli said, in a vague swipe against the political directors now scrambling in Vienna. “In the life of a nation, it’s nothing.”…
Indeed.
Bob Smith says
Obama is the Islamic Manchurian Candidate.
During his time in office, he has continuously sided with the forces of Islam.
Expect him to follow the Islamic line at all times. Including the destruction of Israel.
When and if Israel hits Iran, watch Obama squirm like a worm on a hook. He clearly would like to have US forces try to stop the Israelis. But he knows if he does his Islamic cover with be broken.
nate mermelstein says
Just look at the way he looks at BB he looks at him as a fool.He does’nt like that BB is against islam,his relatives.He got rid of Hagel, because he’s not worried about his brothers trying too obliterate him.
Vivienne Leijonhufvud (goldie) says
I can only agree with this point of view Bob Smith.
gail griffin says
On the other hand, 10 to 15 years can see the changes made in Iran of the womens movement, MY STEALTH FREEDOM and the dancing kids of the Happiness Song, overcome the turbaned, acid throwing, Evin Prison gang. The Iranians (Persians) I do believe want to be in the modern world and not just watching it pass by year after year. Nuclear energy did wonders for Japan and 3 mile island. I can see why Iran insists on it when they have oil and sunshine. Allah gave them oil and sunshine, I just wonder if the Iranians can see that they are into the inventions of the Western World with Nuclear and cell phones and Twitter etc. The Ayatollahs owe us a letter of thanks. I expect it will be front page soon.
Buraq says
This time, I’ll frame my post from a secular reference point. The Chinese general Sun Tzu said that if you place soldiers in mortal danger – he called it Death Ground – they will be faced with a stark choice; fight or die. This will turn them into fearless warriors.
Obama is creating the same mentality in the Israelis. If he leaves them to the tender mercies of the Iranian Mullahs, the Israelis will be forced to fight for their survival. They will fight even more fiercely. They are on Death Ground, and will respond accordingly.
Obama’s a weakling and a clown!
Wolfgang says
If the Iranians want to have Nuclear power then the deal is renounce Islam completely and its psychopathic murdering tenet, since this will be like chickens growing teeth, I can safely say this will never happen, therefore since Islam is dedicated to the destruction of Israel [ and by default us ] , the Israelis/ Jews I fully support going all out to destroy their facilities, even if they use their own Nukes on the Iranian plant.
I say Israel GO FOR IT !!!!!! many many many people in the West will cheer and stand by Israel !.
As for Obumbler and Comoron and other Dimmi Western leaders, ignore them, they are rapidly becoming irrelevant.
moses says
obama is looking at the israeli pm is as if he wants to start a fight with him
Happy Wombat says
Obama can’t help but betray US allies. He did it to Australia last week though admittedly not on a matter of our very existence like he does to Israel. Slimy, despicable betrayal