As the operation to free Mosul from the self-proclaimed caliphate approaches, the potential vacuum left after the Islamic State loses the city could lead to serious complications for the region. One who is poised to take advantage is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has frequently been accused of wanting to establish his own caliphate, and of striking in only a perfunctory fashion against the Islamic State, hoping eventually to co-opt it and appropriate its holdings for his own regime.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has warned Turkey that “keeping troops in northern Iraq could lead to a ‘regional war.'” About 1,000 Turkish troops are stationed near Mosul “to protect what Ankara calls ‘Turkish interests.'”
Those interests are all about Islam: Shia (the al-Abadi regime in Baghdad) versus Sunni (Erdogan’s Turkey).
Mosul is a mainly Sunni Arab city that Erdogan does not want to see “fall under control of Shi’ite Iraqi troops.”
Erdogan had hardline messages for al-Abadi:
We will play a role in the Mosul liberation operation and no one can prevent us from participating.
After Mosul will be rescued from [IS], only Sunni Arabs, Turkmen and Sunni Kurds should remain there.
Some developments in the increasing Islamization of Turkey under Erdogan:
1. “The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government entertains ambitions to make Istanbul an Islamic financing hub, including a project to establish a bank called Mega Bank in cooperation with Indonesia and the Islamic Development Bank.”
2. Erdogan has been reported to be intensively using “Islamic symbols and rhetoric, including rally appearances with the Quran.”
Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy asks: “The problem is, what do they do after Mosul is liberated?….Do they support some factions? Do they give them a lot of money? Do they give them weapons?”
One possibility is troubling: “it may fall to the Obama administration to settle the dispute between Baghdad and Ankara.”
Obama has not exactly inspired confidence in his regional dealings and in his approach to the global jihad. For instance: i) his lax immigration policy and his creation of a “resettlement surge center”; ii) his promotion of war crimes in Yemen by bankrolling Saudi-Arabia in its human rights abuses against Shi’ites there; iii) his freeing up of billions to Iran in the nuclear deal, plus additional backroom deals with the rogue regime; and iv) his refusal even to acknowledge the ideological character of the jihad, which is an Islamic war of conquest, both within the region — as Erdogan clearly knows in regard to the Shia-Sunni divide — and outside of the region (the dar al-harb, the “house of war” of the West).
“Turkey-Iraq Tensions May Complicate Battle Against IS in Mosul”, by Rikar Hussein, VOA, October 5, 2016:
As the operation to retake Mosul from the Islamic State group approaches, tensions between Iraq and Turkey are escalating over Turkey’s possible military involvement in the attack.
The dispute grew more intense Wednesday after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned that the presence of Turkish troops in the north of the country risked provoking a larger regional confrontation.
Around 1,000 Turkish troops are stationed near Mosul to protect what Ankara calls “Turkish interests,” which include training Kurdish and Sunni forces to fight IS. Turkey wants its forces to participate in the looming battle to take Mosul by Iraqi, Kurdish and Arab forces. Baghdad says Turkish troops should leave Iraq.
Tensions escalated when the Turkish parliament voted last week to keep troops in Iraq for another year to “fight terrorist organizations.” The Iraqi government issued a protest to the Turkish ambassador Wednesday, following a late-night vote condemning the presence of Turkish troops on Iraqi soil.
Future tensions expected
Iraq’s Abadi warned Turkey that it was risking a regional war by keeping troops inside Iraq, and said he had “warned Ankara more than once against intervening” in Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city.
This dispute will “complicate the situation for months afterwards,” said Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“The problem is, what do they do after Mosul is liberated?” he asked of Turkish troops. “Do they support some factions? Do they give them a lot of money? Do they give them weapons?”
Turkish troops have entered Iraq several times before, albeit mostly with the consent of the Baghdad government.
A “border security and cooperation” treaty signed in 1983 by Turkey and Iraq allowed Turkish troops to enter Iraq multiple times to chase members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish guerrilla movement in Turkey that wants independence.
But when Turkey opened a military base in late 2014 in Bashiqa, 15 kilometers northeast of Mosul, the Iraqi government protested, saying Turkey had not consulted Baghdad for permission.
Tensions simmered for months, but the looming battle for Mosul is raising diplomatic pressures.
“We will play a role in the Mosul liberation operation and no one can prevent us from participating,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his parliament Saturday.
Turkey wants more than to help militarily in Mosul, analysts say. It is also seeking to increase its influence in Mosul, most of whose people are Sunni Muslims, after Islamic State extremists are pushed out, they say.
Turkish ‘sphere of influence’
“What they are doing in Mosul is to increase their sphere of influence,” said analyst Knights. “Mosul is a major Sunni Arab city with a population of about 1.2 million people [down from twice that size in 2014, before IS moved in]. It has a major significance for Turkey.”
Turkey does not want to see Mosul fall under control of Shi’ite Iraqi troops.
“After Mosul will be rescued from [IS], only Sunni Arabs, Turkmen and Sunni Kurds should remain there,” Erdogan said Sunday in an interview with the Saudi-based television channel Rotana.
Ultimately, analysts say, it may fall to the Obama administration to settle the dispute between Baghdad and Ankara over Turkey’s involvement in the battle for Mosul. Washington is an ally of both countries and is helping to craft battle plans to drive Islamic State fighters out of the city…..

Angemon says
Assuming it is decided while Obama is in power.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
If that happens Prez Hillary may face this as her first tough decision. But have faith, she’s got a long track record of experience in foreign affairs, and knows Moslems well. Maybe Huma can help her.
Oliver says
Alarmed,
And as Mr. Trump has said, and I agree- her track record in foreign affairs (i would modify-as pertains to the Middle East-i doubt that she has had any experience elsewhere- not counting the ” sniper fire” in Bosnia)- IS ALL BAD.
All been a disaster.
Crusades Were Right! says
There needs to be an Assyrian state for the indigenous Assyrian Christian nation. As for Erdogan, he needs to GIVE UP territory – wrongfully held parts of Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus and Armenia!
Pere LaChaise says
The article is fatally flawed in it’s complete omission of the Christian Assyrian population of Mosul and the region, which predates the entire Moslem presence by milennia as a nation and 7 centuries as a faith community. Assyrian rights must absolutely be emphasized in any honest discussion of Mosul.
The nefarious Turk, inherently dishonest and prejudiced satanic ally against Christians will always seek to do the most harm to them. Turkish military incursion in Mosul is designed to prevent the process of Assyrian return to the heart of their old nation.
As usual with the Turk, there is nothing to recommend him – he is a thorough dastard and villain in every instance and his goal is perpetually to harm everyone who stands in the way of the exercise of his power. If no power has the courage to confront and destroy Turkish forces, they will establish evil permanently wherever they rule.
Kenneth T Tellis says
Constantinople must be returned to Greece, and Recip Tayyip Erdogan better do that if he does not want to lose the whole of Turkey in the bargain
gravenimage says
What makes you think Turkey will return Constantinople to Greece? I’d love to see it happen, but see no sign that this is likely to occur. Instead, Muslims are making violent incursions into Greece:
“Greek government fears jihad attack if mosque not built in Athens”
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/04/greek-government-fears-jihad-attack-if-mosque-not-built-in-athens
simpleton1 says
Real complications, as NATO should really review where Turkey fits into the system, and risk being manipulated further into a quagmire..
The EU seems to be being played by Turkey for money and the passing through of numerous refugees and immigrants, plus looking for more visiting travel and working visas
Turkey may have to reconsider things if freed from NATO, as then Russia could be a bit more forth right, if need be.
Turkey has a lot to loose if it also unstabilizes the region.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
When Rayyip makes his power move we’re faced with a decision: Iran (a Russian ally) vs. Turkey (our fake ally that is now cozying up to Russia). Do we U.S. taxpayers fund both sides of the war? We’ve done it before, and are indeed doing it now. How do we win hegemonically by doing this? Neither side will be a true ally if either wins, and will hate us even more if it’s a draw. Choices. Here’s a choice: how about no Moslem allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, et al. How about that choice?
Oliver says
Alarmed–I THINK Russia is NOT a true ally of Iran. I think that both sides are using each other) for a similar reason. (Mostly, kill ISIS– although if ISIS got into a shooting war with Iran and Hezbollah, and both sides had massive losses, I think the world would be a better place)
Note, Iran stopped Russia from using bases in Iran for airstrikes ( don’t know if they started again).
I also think-just my feelings, that Russia is using the old Ollie North trick. (selling defective weapons at an inflated cost, so the bastards get killed).
ich says
damn i hate the whole middle east and its satanic religions
Pere LaChaise says
Like Christianity? You would prefer official atheism? See how well that turned out in the USSR, China and Vietnam.
Oliver says
Pere- Ich said SATANIC religions.
Islam is, as far as I know, the only one that fits that description.
See Graven Image post-also
gravenimage says
Judaism and Christianity are not threatening anyone. Islam sure as hell is, though.
Sam says
“Ultimately, analysts say, it may fall to the Obama administration to settle the dispute between Baghdad and Ankara over Turkey’s involvement in the battle for Mosul. Washington is an ally of both countries and is helping to craft battle plans to drive Islamic State fighters out of the city”
What a funny joke!!!!!! Clueless Obama with Kerry will provide peace in Middle East with my tax dollars. Insane!
gravenimage says
Iraq PM to Erdogan: get out of Iraq or face possibility of regional war
………………………
Sunni/Shia saber-rattling…
Highsider says
Many scholars of biblical prophesy believe that there is evidence of Recip Tayyip Erdogan being the “AntiChrist”. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
Kepha says
I’ve seen a few other “Antichrists” come and go. There were a number of popular tracts hidden among the more scholarly works in the library where I studied Christian theology, including some yellowing, brittle ones that identified poor, posturing, Mussolini as THE Antichrist (especially after his concordat with the Vatican). And of course there was Hal Lindsey in my young manhood who was so certain that the Rosh Meshech we Tuval (Chief of Meshech and Tubal) in Ezekiel had to be “Russia, Moscow, and TObolsk–Cold War coincidence, maybe?).
No, let God know the hidden thing of when the Second Advent of Christ will be. Let us observe and follow the doctrine and ethics we have learned. Who knows? Maybe if we do that, another Don John of Austria or Jan Sobieski will arise.
Pere LaChaise says
Excellent points Kepha – there have always been antichrists and always will be. St. John’s Apokalypsis was a liturgical mystagogy and prophecy of the times the Apostolic generation themselves were living through, not a prognostication of future events. 666 (or less scarily gematrized as 606) was Emperor Nero.
Anti- means ‘other’ as well as ‘counter’. It denotes any pretender to messiahood who is not actually anointed of God.
The Church has seen them come and go, and we are still here waiting on Christ’s return. So we will abide all the onslaughts of satan’s minions and not lose heart. Mara natha!
Eric Jones says
Obama has stated that Erdogan is his favorite foreign leader. Two islamist in bed together. Turkey could have had a much better future if Erdogan and Gulan had not islamizied the country. Turkey is not the secular state it used to be. Turkey should be kicked out of NATO and not be allowed in the EU. Sadly Turkey’s islaminc meddling could cause it to permantly lose terroity to various factions in the region.
Eric
Oliver says
Mentioned is Turkish Kurds. But I thought the Turks hate the Kurds
Who want their own country