When, in December 2017, President Trump announced that the American Embassy would be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, many people in the foreign policy establishment warned of dire consequences. Richard Haass and Aaron Miller, both of whom have been involved in the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process” for decades, tweeted about the potential for mayhem and mass protests by the “Arab street.” So did journalists, such as Susan Glasser of The New Yorker, Anne Barnard of the New York Times, Obama’s speechwriter David Rhodes, and many others.
There have been similar hypertrophied fears about Arab reactions to American policies, expressed on other occasions. Back in 1991, after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, Saudi Arabia welcomed American and other Western military forces into the Kingdom to protect it against a possible invasion by Saddam Hussein. Middle Eastern “experts” predicted there would be mass protests, even uprisings throughout the Arab world. How could Infidel armies be allowed to remain in the Arabian peninsula without the Arabs erupting in furious protest? Surely the Arabs everywhere would be enraged. As it turned out, the Western troops remained; Saddam Hussein was as a result dissuaded from any possible move on the Kingdom; and there was hardly a peep of protest from the much-feared “Arab street.”
Exaggerated fears of how the Arabs might react to an American policy thought to favor Israel go all the way back to the Truman Administration. Both the Secretary of State and former Chief of Staff, George C. Marshall, and the Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal, were against recognizing the State of Israel, for fear of the supposed dire consequences to American interests in the Arab world. America’s top diplomat, George Kennan, agreed with Forrestal and Marshall that Israel should not be recognized because of the damage to American interests in the region. Whether they — and others — all really believed this, or whether some may have been driven purely by an anti-Israel animus that was rampant among the “striped pants boys” in the State Department, is unclear. But in any case, President Truman ignored the advice of these “Wise Men,” recognized Israel, and braced for the reaction, but there were no anti-American protests to speak of, no burning of flags, no furious Muslim marchers denouncing Truman in Cairo, Damascus, Baghdad, or Riyadh.
Another fear expressed by many in the foreign policy establishment was that Israel, once recognized by Washington, might nonetheless become a Soviet satellite. This made no sense; there was not the slightest evidence of Israel making common cause with the Soviet Union. Yet Secretary of State Marshall warned, on the basis of no facts whatsoever, that “There was a danger that if the Jewish state came into being it would be a front for the Soviets.” This canard has its roots, of course, in older charges about “Jewish Bolshevism.” At the same time, a different worry was expressed, that if Truman recognized Israel, this move would push some of the Arab states, in reaction, to become Soviet allies. Neither of these consequences was realized. Communism did not mix either with Zionism or with Islam.
Which brings us to the warnings issued by so many Middle Eastern “experts” more than a year ago about what would happen if America moved its Embassy to Jerusalem. The Wall Street Journal reported at the time that the State Department had informed US embassies around the world about the plan to make the move and to begin planning for how to deal with the protests that would, it thought, inevitably follow.
The Wall Street Journal’s report included the warning, as its State Department sources wanted it to, that if Trump made good on the pledge to move the Embassy, American diplomats abroad would be in real danger. There were even predictions that “the response of the Arab street will likely be nasty and might rival or even exceed the destruction, violence and even murder that resulted when a Danish newspaper published a few satirical cartoons about the Prophet Mohammed. Egged on by Iran and other radical Islamists, protests will be massive and will carry a hefty price tag.”
Many Middle East “experts” and much of the media were sure that the Embassy move would lead to catastrophe.
Sean Dolan of CAMERA reminds us of their exaggerated fears here:
When the Trump administration announced in December 2017 that it would belatedly implement the bipartisan Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995 and recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, commentators howled with disapproval, warning that “the Arab street” would explode. NPR, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and USA Today, among others, filed dozens of reports warning about an impending disaster. Arab nations would punish the United States they warned — and if those regimes failed to express adequate disapproval, they risked being overthrown.
The Middle East analyst Noah Pollak highlighted several of the overblown predictions in the Washington Free Beacon. Susan Glasser, then of Politico and now at The New Yorker, breathlessly repeated claims made by an Israeli Arab Ayman Odeh, a leading Arab Israeli member of parliament that“Trump is a pyromaniac who could set the entire region on fire with his madness.” Ben Rhodes, an Obama senior official turned pundit, said that ““In addition to making the goal of peace even less possible, Trump is risking huge blowback against the US and Americans. For no reason other than a political promise he doesn’t even understand, an international crisis’ was likely to materialize.” “Pray,” said The New York Times’ Anne Barnard. Aaron Miller who had in the past been deeply involved in negotiations with Israel and the Arabs, tweeted: “Jerusalem is a tinderbox waiting for a match. What’s the compelling US interest in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital?” Ned Price, who had been a special assistant to President Obama for security affairs, tweeted that:
In order to cater to his political base, Trump appears willing to:
Put US personnel at great risk;
Risk C-ISIL momentum;
Destabilize a regional ally;
Strain global alliances;
Put Israeli-Palestinian peace farther out of reach
But nothing significant — no setting of the region on fire, no international crisis, no huge blowback against the US — happened.
Walter Sieruk says
President Trump wisely said “It’s time to officially recognize [the reality of] Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.” Yes, indeed, it’s very much time to recognize Jerusalem as the capital city of the State of Israel, and he then acted on his word and he had done so by good decision of moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem .This bold and wise decision of President Trump to move the US embassy to Jerusalem has greatly offended many of the Muslim clerics . Be they, for example, the imams of Pakistan or the mullahs of Iran. Those Muslim clerics with their mind control and their unconscionable ways they manipulate the people from the mosques to be their stooges into a, violent uprising, because of the President’s decision is despicable . Some people of the left will say that the decision of move the US embassy to Jerusalem is “provoking” and it will “incite violence.” This only shows the old saying to be true .Which is that “Evil is always looking for an excuse. “ The fact is President Trump made the right decision and if the Muslim clerics don’t happen to like it ,well then it’s “tough beans.” to them
As the Bible informs its readers “The Lord also shall roar out of Zion, and utter His voice from Jerusalem … the Lord will be the hope of His people ,and the strength of the children of Israel.” Joel 3:16.
AnneM04031959 says
The reality is that Israel is home never to its land.
AnneM04031959 says
Correction: Never to leave its land.
Walter Sieruk says
All those Muslims who are so angered because President Trump recognized Jerusalem as the Capital city of the Jewish State of Israel are nonsensical. For the facts are Jerusalem was the capital of ancient Israel and likewise Jerusalem is the capital city of modern Israel. Those Muslims who are so very angry over this US embassy move to Jerusalem are a reminder that Benjamin Franklin had printed in POOR RICHARD’S ALMANAC “There are many reasons to become angry but very few good ones.”
Walter Sieruk says
Many of the Muslim /Arabs who call themselves “Palestinians” are very mad that President Trump has recognized Jerusalem as the capital city of the State of Israel. Many of those same “Palestinians” were very happy when they found out about the mass jihad murders in America on September 11, 2001. So who cares if they are mad or not about the US embassy move to Jerusalem ?
AnneM04031959 says
Go to war against Israel, is war against the God of the Holy Bible.
Anjuli Pandavar says
Kudos to Trump and to Guatemala! There have been a few “deniable” embassy moves to Jerusalem by a handful of countries in recent weeks. These partial, or carefully-worded, moves are presumably so they can both claim that they’ve moved their embassy (or are in the process of doing so) and avert the ire of, er, who knows. As for the rest of us who don’t have embassies that we can move around, we can always make Israel our holiday destination of choice and so advance the counter-jihad just by lying around on a beach all day!
David Hayden says
Thanks for the article, Hugh Fitzgerald. I agreed with the reason to recognize Jerusalem and moving the U. S. embassy there. Your interpretation of events solidifies what I already believed. Great job, sir.
roberta says
We have been mislead by experts my entire life it seems.
These ”people” will react however we allow them to react.
Take hold of the leash and walk the dog, or the dog will walk you.
Michael Copeland says
“the response …that resulted when a Danish newspaper published a few satirical cartoons” – Wall Street Journal.
No.
That response was to a carefully orchestrated campaign by imams drumming up support in different parts of the world. The ordered-in-the-mosques “demonstrations” happened FIVE MONTHS AFTER the publication of the cartoons – not spontaneous in the slightest.
gravenimage says
Hugh Fitzgerald: That American Embassy Move Is Doing Just Fine, Thank You (Part One)
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Excellent news!
CRUSADER says
When last in Tel Aviv, I noticed the old Embassy still active and the guards on post were very upset with having photos taken of the building….even though it is in public space on a well trafficked street.
James Hilborn says
That’s because Terrorists use cell phones to detonate bombs.
judith h boedecker says
“Jerusalem is a tinderbox waiting for a match” Yeah for at least 300 years. This is not news.