Last November, Avigdor Lieberman resigned as Israel’s Defense Minister. At the time, he accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who after two days of fighting had agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza, of not responding forcefully enough to Hamas. Netanyahu wanted to inflict enough pain to force Hamas to agree to a cease-fire, but did not want to be drawn into a larger conflict with Hamas if it could be avoided. For a prolonged conflict might leave Hamas so weakened that it could lose control in Gaza. The result could be chaos in the territory; this could require Israel to take over and assume the responsibilities of rule in Gaza, something Netanyahu wishes to avoid at all costs.
For Netanyahu, Israel’s most dangerous enemies are in the north: Iran threatens Israel both directly, from its own territory and from its bases in Syria, and indirectly, through Hezbollah, which in Lebanon has 140,000 rockets and missiles that can hit anywhere in Israel. Hamas is an annoyance, but its latest barrage of rockets have caused no Israeli deaths and only seven wounded. Though Israel in response hit 30 important Hamas targets, Netanyahu stopped there; he did not want to divert his military’s attention away from the main threat in the north.
There have been some changes since last November. Israel’s bombing campaign has limited Iran’s ability to establish bases in Syria. Israel has also located and destroyed at least six very large tunnels that Hezbollah had built from Lebanon into Israel that, if undetected, would have allowed a surprise attack by its fighters on the Galilee. Furthermore, the reimposition of American sanctions has worked: Iran is suffering economically and has had to reduce its financial support for Hezbollah, including cuts in Hezbollah salaries, and possibly — it’s unclear — in the numbers of new weapons it attempts to ship to Hezbollah. But Hezbollah still has those 140,000 rockets in southern Lebanon aimed at Israel.
Meanwhile, the dilemma for Netanyahu remains. If he sends troops in to topple Hamas, then what? Israel is then stuck with having to administer a hostile population in Gaza, and the outside world will unfairly blame it for Gaza’s economic mess. So far he’s done well, with punishing attacks on Hamas, always from the air, and no ground invasion. He has kept Hamas weak enough so that it has been suing for a ceasefire, but not so weak that it loses control of Gaza. Whether Hamas can prevent Islamic Jihad, a group in Gaza that is even more fanatical than Hamas, from shooting rockets into Israel so as to make sure that no ceasefire holds, remains to be seen.
If the ceasefire with Israel does hold, people in Gaza will again turn their attention to the parlous state of the economy, and renew the protests against Hamas that they began in March, but temporarily halted during the exchange of blows between Hamas and Israel. The price of goods in Gaza keeps rising, taxes have been increased, unemployment is above 50% (and for younger workers has hit 70%), and wages have been cut for those who do work. Hamas has mismanaged the economy, not least by allocating large sums to military uses, including the production of thousands of domestically-produced rockets and the digging of tunnels that cost between $1 and $3 million each. Finally there is massive corruption — theft — by its leaders. Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas between 2004 and 2017, now lives in Doha, enjoying a fortune that Arab sources estimate at between $2.6 and $5 billion, money that he diverted from aid that was meant for the people of Gaza. Mousa Abu Marzouk, former Deputy Chief of the political wing of Hamas, has also accumulated, by the same diversion of aid funds, several billion dollars, which he enjoys from his luxury home in New Cairo, Egypt. The current head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, has not stolen nearly as much; he is believed to have about $10 million in real estate and bank accounts. But give him time. Arab sources claim there are another 1,200 high-ranking members of Hamas living in Gaza who are millionaires.
After Hamas fired 470 rockets and mortar shells into southern Israel on November 12 and 13, Israel struck 160 Hamas targets all over Gaza. Hamas then agreed, after that furious response, to a cease-fire. But less than 24 hours after that ceasefire was announced, however, Lieberman resigned from the government. Lieberman believed that Israel should have kept up its wide-ranging attacks on Hamas positions, and called the ceasefire agreed to by Netanyahu a “capitulation to terror.” There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s decision has been unpopular in Israel, where many people, especially in the south, wanted the IDF to crush Hamas, in order to buy a long period of quiet, as happened after the Gaza War of 2014. No one has any illusions that such an agreement could ever become a permanent peace treaty. Every agreement with Hamas is at best a “hudna,” or truce treaty. Hamas in Gaza will use that ceasefire to rebuild, as best it can, its stock of weapons, and to dig more tunnels to smuggle both weaponry and construction materials (to build more tunnels) into Gaza, and terrorists into Israel. For the Jihad against Israel has no end; there is no “solution” to it. Peace can only be maintained through deterrence, as it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. For such deterrence to work, Israel must be, and be perceived to be, overwhelmingly more powerful than its enemies. In accepting the ceasefire, Hamas has signaled it now understands it has much more to lose through an exchange of blows with a more powerful Israel. That is why, as Netanyahu reported, Hamas “begged” for the ceasefire.
Why was Netanyahu, always regarded as a hawk, well-pleased with and defending this ceasefire agreement? It had less to do with the threat from Hamas itself, and more to do with ensuring that the IDF could concentrate its attention, and if necessary, its intermittent application of force, on its northern border with Lebanon and Syria. For the Iranians now are present in Syria, undeterred by Israeli attacks on their bases, and now preparing to build new bases sufficiently camouflaged — some with missiles that to avoid Israeli detection can be hidden in underground tunnels, and then raised up hydraulically to be fired. In the meantime, the Iranians are sharing bases with both Hezbollah and Assad’s military, making it harder to identify and attack any of the three — Syrians, Iranians, Hezbollah — in isolation.
Netanyahu has decided it is more important for now to put Hamas on the back burner while concentrating on the threat in the north from Hezbollah. Because of the military and financial support it receives from Iran, the Lebanese terror group now poses a threat to Israel unlike anything the country has seen in recent history. It has advanced weaponry far beyond anything it had in the 2006 war, weaponry which is constantly being updated with supplies of the very latest in weapons technology.
CRUSADER says
“Netanyahu wanted to inflict enough pain to force Hamas to agree to a cease-fire, but did not want to be drawn into a larger conflict with Hamas if it could be avoided.”
(Eye for an Eye, but no more than that….)
CRUSADER says
“For the Jihad against Israel has no end; there is no “solution” to it. Peace can only be maintained through deterrence, as it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. For such deterrence to work, Israel must be, and be perceived to be, overwhelmingly more powerful than its enemies.”
(Israel faces the Iranian land bridge to the sea with the outpost of Revolutionary Guards / Hezbollah at their northern frontier. Hezbollah has worked to build up enough to overwhelm defense systems of Israel. It may not be irony that the forces of Israel’s enemies marshal at Har Megiddo ….as the scriptures are said to prophesy. The kibbutzim in northern Israel are full of brave and armed residents, but they will be hugely overwhelmed. IDF will have to do its best. But, we know how the Muzzies mass…)
Pastor Jack Hibbs and Amir Tsarfati LIVE from the Valley of Armageddon…Events happening now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhtMzD1-X2U
Wellington says
Informative article by Fitzgerald (as usual) which makes a good case for Netanyahu’s “approach” to Gaza. Hamas is small potatoes compared to Iran, the single greatest menace in the Middle East, and its proxy, Hezbollah.
Hey, christianblood, “God bless Hezbollah,” eh? And what about what I already mentioned to you the other day, to wit, in the Moscow Times it was reported that a poll taken in Russia back in March showed that 70% of Russians have a positive view of Stalin, one of the greatest mass murderers, if not the greatest, in history? Dennis Prager noted this as well on his radio show just the other day.
Holy Mother Russia keeps marching onwards and who can doubt that, with its coziness with Iran and loads of Russians admiring of Stalin and with Putin, the killer that he is, continuing to interfere in Western elections (although ineptly so), that Russia demonstrates yet again, rather like the so-called Palestinians, that it seems to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity for real peace, prosperity, freedom and greatness.
CRUSADER says
Yes, Wellington, “christianblood” needs to be kept in line.
CRUSADER says
Wellington,
Good on you to be on “christianblood” as much as you are, as a tireless pit-bull or something.
But perhaps there is something to what Malcolm sees about “christianblood” ?
In a post elsewhere today….
=====================
Malcolm (South Afric) says
Apr 21, 2019 at 12:29 pm
christianblood
And to you, family and all people of good will.
gravenimage says
I have no problem with wishing christianblood a Happy Easter, CRUSADER–I did so myself today.
But he is *not* of good will. He blesses Hizb’allah and their Jihad against Israel, he hates Jews, and he wants to see Muslims invade and conquer the West. He has agreed that since I called him on this that I should be gang raped and beheaded by Muslims, and that if I resist this I am resisting the Truth of God.
He also praises the horrors of Shari’ah in Iran and Chechnya–including their persecution of Christians. Really, none of this is of good will.
Wellington says
CRUSADER: Please read gravenimage’s 5:43 P.M. post (four or five times). It rather says it all.
Both you and Malcolm and many others need to realize that christianblood is not “a good actor.” He has been a rank apologist not only for Putin’s semi-dictatorship but also for Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. He seeks the destruction of the West, carries water time and time again for Iran and Hezbollah (indeed, right here at JW, christianblood has written, and I quote, “God bless Hezbollah”), has a very thinly veiled contempt for Israel, and, in general, is a loon if ever there were one.
Reconsider, CRUSADER. You are too decent a person not to.
CRUSADER says
Speaking about “christianblood”….
There is this bit of boldness:
ISIS – Straight outta Raqqa
feat. Russian Airstrikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7jwaHqpJRU
gravenimage says
On another thread, christiuanblood made the bizarre claim that this Jihadist was wearing a CIA logo.
jarmanray says
G.I. You are spot on target about christiauanblood but I am curious about our friend, Susansaidso and the creepy Nigerian. And Happy Easter to and the other regulars here at JW.
jarmanray says
I meant Stella not Susan. Old age hick-up.
Guy Forester says
Great analysis, Hugh.
Unfortunately, all of the so-called peace initiatives are built on baseless hopes. Basically, it takes at least two to make peace, but only one to make war. Since only Israel seems interested in peace, tranquility, and prosperity, that part of the world will continue to be unstable.
Perhaps Bibi should have pummeled Hamas for a few more days. The other solution that is never mentioned would be to have Egypt occupy and manage Gaza as they did prior to 1967. That did not work well, either. My guess is that a lot of that graft and corruption money ends up in Egyptian hands, so there is no incentive to change things. Al Sisi is setting himself up to be Pharaoh, so I would consider Egypt to be a very shaky partner in peace. Jordan is not particularly stable either, and for self preservation would abandon the peace ship with Israel if a larger war against Israel develops. Of course, that has never worked to Jordan’s benefit either. Obviously, Israel’s neighbors are not students of history.
eduardo odraude says
Excellent review of the situation by Hugh Fitzgerald.
UNCLE VLADDI says
Re: “a prolonged conflict might leave Hamas so weakened that it could lose control in Gaza. The result could be chaos in the territory; this could require Israel to take over and assume the responsibilities of rule in Gaza, something Netanyahu wishes to avoid at all costs.”
FFS! Why the Hell not?! He shouldn’t seek to “rule” or manage Gaza – he should expel ALL the former Egyptian muslim “palestinians” from it forever, and let industrious Jewish Israelis move in!
A simple glance at a map shows Gaza to be a part of Israel, not a part of Egypt, and not a separate nation!