Turkey, a member of NATO and — some still believe — an American ally, has been in the news of late because of its purchase, and then its taking delivery, of the S-400 air-defense missile system from Russia. It did this in defiance of the wishes of the American government, and of every other member of NATO. The Trump Administration, backed up by members of Congress of both parties, had warned Erdogan not to go through with the purchase, insisting that Turkey would not be allowed to take delivery of the 100 F-35 stealth jets, the top-of-the-line American aircraft, that the Americans had been willing to sell them. “You can have the S-400, or you can have the F-35, but you can’t have both” was the repeated refrain from Washington
The Americans have several worries. First, there is the matter of interoperability. One NATO official told The Washington Post that the alliance was “concerned about the potential consequences of Turkey’s decision to acquire the S-400 system. Interoperability of our armed forces is fundamental to NATO for the conduct of our operations and missions.” None of the other members of NATO have air-defense systems compatible with the Russian S-400. Even within Turkey, there would be incompatibility — lack of interoperability — between the S-400 systems and the missile defense systems now in place, including the Patriot missiles the Americans have in Turkey to protect their air base at Incirlik. The Americans had offered to sell Patriot missiles to Turkey, but Erdogan claimed that Washington had not made an adequate offer. Erdogan may well have been determined all along to buy, for $2.5 billion, the advanced S-400 system from Russia, both to cement close ties with his new best friend forever, Vladimir Putin, and to demonstrate his willingness to defy the Americans, who clearly get on his nerves; after all, they supported the “terrorist” Kurds in Syria, and they’re in thrall to those terrible Israelis.
The second worry is even greater. U.S. officials fear that if Turkey has both the F-35 and Russia’s most advanced air defense system in its hands, then Russians may gain access to F-35 technology and later target its weaknesses. In late May, Kathryn Wheelbarger, U.S. acting assistant secretary of defense, said that the “S-400 is a Russian system designed to shoot down an aircraft like the F-35.” She said “it is inconceivable to imagine Russia not taking advantage of that [intelligence] collection opportunity.” The Russians might offer, as one more example of their desire to help Turkey, to make the S-400 system as effective as possible by studying the F-35’s current ability to evade the S-400 missiles, then coming up with counter-measures, which would be shared with their new Turkish friends.
Erdogan may believe that the Americans are bluffing, that they won’t in the end prevent Turkey from buying the 100 F-35s, which are to be delivered at the rate of ten a year for ten years. After all, the sale, once complete, could be worth about 15 billion dollars. But Lockheed has not had trouble finding customers — including the Pentagon — for the F-35. If Turkey doesn’t buy them, other potential customers are waiting.
Erdogan may also think that the Americans wouldn’t prohibit the F-35 sale because this might lead Turkey to close down Incirlik, an airbase that was useful during the Cold War as a listening post into the Soviet Union, and recently has been used by the American air force for missions in the Middle East. But the U.S. military has since early 2018 already curbed combat operations flying out of Incirlik, and permanent cutbacks are in the works. in January 2018, for instance, a squadron of A-10 Thunderbolt IIs were shifted from Incirlik to Afghanistan. U.S. Air Forces Central Command officially said that the move was for the purpose of shifting focus from fighting ISIS to fighting the Taliban. But it also showed the American willingness to relocate planes to other bases. Another reason why the use of Incirlik is being re-thought is that the Turks sometimes request, within giving any explanation, that the U.S. suspend operations on the runway. It’s a way for Erdogan to engage in petty harassment, to show the Americans who is boss. Furthermore, the Turks have already threatened to close Incirlik down: on February 11, 2018, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Fikri Işık announced that Ankara would not hesitate to close the airbase, if its long-term interests require it.
“If Turkey’s medium and long-term interests require [us]to take a step [to close the base] Turkey certainly would not refrain from taking this step,” Işık said during a press conference, according to the Türkiye newspaper.
When asked by journalists if Turkey is currently [in 2018] considering closing the Incirlik airbase, the Turkish Deputy Prime Minister didn’t confirm or deny but he said that the decision-making mechanisms in Turkey “always hold each and ever.” [sic]
The Americans need an air base where they can operate freely, without the anxiety of never knowing when the runways might be closed at whim by a hostile host, or the whole air base might be closed, as Turkish officials have threatened to do with Incirlik.
Where might such a base be placed? One possibility is in the Sinai, in one of the already existing airbases built by the Israelis when they held the Sinai, and which could be upgraded to meet American needs. The Eitam airbase at El Goreh, in northeast Sinai, might fill the bill. Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates would all welcome such an American presence. To discourage the inevitable street protests by the Muslim Brotherhood, the Egyptian government could have its controlled media focus on the enormous rent, and additional American economic aid, the Egyptians would be receiving for use of the Eitam airbase.In Saudi Arabia (and the Emirates), the government-controlled media could truthfully depict this American airbase as providing greater security for the Saudis (and Emiratis), in facing the threat of Iran. Israel, of course, needs no convincing about the benefits of an American base in the Sinai. As for Erdogan, such a move out of Incirlik by the Americans, upending all his assumptions about who has the upper hand in Turkish-American relations, should provide a salutary lesson. One could even call it an “Ottoman slap.”
Dusty says
Turkey is no ally. They need to be out of NATO.
Christianblood says
Expert talk on Turkey, Russia, US and S-400 Missiles. Watch the video:
https://theduran.com/russian-s-400-missile-system-arrives-in-turkey-as-u-s-weighs-options-video/
Angemon says
“Expert talk on Turkey, Russia, US and S-400 Missiles.”
I’d rather hear from you whom, not that long ago, were all fire and brimstone when it came to Turkey – but just as soon as Turkish cash started flowing your way, you changed your tune. Radio silence from you coming up in 5… 4… 3…
Christianblood says
Angemon
Turkey changed its regime-change tone in Syria and reduced considerably its support for jihadists there after Erdogan was twice back-stabbed by its US/Nato allies, first by backing the anti-Erdogan coup in Turkey and secondly by the US’s support of the Kurds in Syria. I personally support Trump and even prayed for him to win but when he attacked the Syrian government forces under a false flag pretext on April 2017, I realized he is no different from Obama, Clinton or Bush and that he lied when he was running.
Angemon says
“Turkey changed its regime-change tone in Syria”
Or so you say:
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2019/06/14/turkey-will-respond-if-assad-regime-continues-targeting-turkish-observation-points-in-idlib-erdogan-says
“I personally support Trump ”
You clearly don’t, seeing as you personally insulted him and accused him of backing al-qaeda in Syria.
“ and even prayed for him to win but ”
That “but” rends everything before it worthless and moot. In any case, you’ve failed to address the point I raised – the moment Turkey started spending money in your Russia you removed it from your “axis of evil”. Not a matter of principle but a matter of money – bribery wouldn’t be a wrong way to put it…
Christianblood says
Angemon
(correction)
( I personally supported Trump) but NOT anymore
since April 2017 when he attacked Syria because of a false flag “chemical” attack orchestrated by the ‘white helmets”. Trump can go to hell now! For me, anyone attacking countries like Syria, committing regime-change wars, supporting jihadists and replacing governments with jihadist groups is the worst of the worst and Turkey is not doing this anymore for the reasons I pointed out above!
Angemon says
“( I personally supported Trump) but NOT anymore”
That’s what I said – you don’t.
“when he attacked Syria because of a false flag “chemical” attack orchestrated by the ‘white helmets”. ”
Aren’t the WH linked to Turkey? The same Turkey you included in your “axis of evil” but no longer ddo since they started buying weapons from your Russia?
“Trump can go to hell now! For me, anyone attacking countries like Syria”
Didn’t you accuse Turkey of that?
“committing regime-change wars, supporting jihadists and replacing governments with jihadist groups is the worst of the worst”
And yet, you openly support Iran…
“and Turkey is not doing this anymore for the reasons I pointed out above!”
All without any citation to back your claim. In any case, here’s what you actually wrote:
Turkey, according to your own words, is supporting jihadis in Syria. As far as I can tell, Erdogan’s stance is still that, while he may talk to Damascus, he refuses to acknowledge Assad. And even if that’s not the case, you decried the Turks for the Armenian genocide – does their alleged (alleged by you, desperately scrambling for a reason other than Russia’s taking Turkish money) turnabout in Syria makes up for that?
gravenimage says
Turkey *not* our ally–and christianblood is a fool if he thinks they are his ally. Erdogan is not any Infidel’s ally.
Bob Jones says
NATO has long been obsolete. Time to dissolve.
Christianblood says
Bob Jones
Well-said!
CRUSADER says
Perhaps reconfigure the notion of allied defense coalitions
in Western-Central Europe….rather than dismantling NATO.
Angemon says
And leave the former Warsaw Pact nations who looked up to NATO for help at the hands of their former tormentors? Why not revamp NATO instead?
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
We can trust Erdogan, can’t we? The hope here is that he’s playing to the Islam base only to secure his position, and that in his heart he doesn’t believe in the Holy Ko-Ran as much as in himself as dictator-for-life.
Here’s hoping.
GreekEmpress says
Alarmed Pig Farmer,
How are things in MN?
I wish I could have hope about Erdogan, but I think he’d LOVE another Ottoman Empire—with himself as top pasha. So glad my family got out of there, and bless the USA for letting them come here.
CRUSADER says
I wish Edogan would turn Christian
and return Smyrna and Constantinople
to the rightful territorial jurisdiction of
Greater Golden Greece ! + + + +
Mano says
Unfortunately it’s a dream. I would rather see Turkey burn in Hell.and I would rather see Turkos attacked every where globally.
Keys says
Wouldn’t he have been wiser, from his point of view, to opt for the F-35 ?
Once he had them, he could always buy the S-400s from the Russians.
So why did he do it this way ! More to this decision than we know !
His first priority is to protect something, and protect it now. What could that be ?
Angemon says
Or reverse-engineer it and make a version of their own. Which, let’s face it, it’s a long-standing russian tradition – ~Yakovlev Yak-38, Tupolev Tu-4, etc.
CRUSADER says
Islamic warriors know the real secret weaponry are feline!
Now we know the reason Jihadists worship cats:
Dan says
Let him take the Russian junk.
Cause he’s proven himself to be a taqiyya spewing Muslim, meaning he’ll take the F 35, then lie that he’s not dealing under the table with the Russians.
Heck he’d probably let Putin come in with a team and take it apart.
Eric Jones says
Turkey can have neither S 400’s or F 35’s. The US should close all of its intelligence and military facilities in Turkey and move them to Greece. Lets stop pretending. Turkey is not our ally. Kick them out of NATO, we don’t need them. This is the advantage of aircraft carriers, they are a mobile airbase. They are not confined by the gyrations of foreign countries.
Erdogan needs more than a slap. Erdogan must be isolated. The whole world will come to recognize this.
Eric
SamB says
American politics is the problem. Change regime every 4-8 years brings new thinking. The previous regime consorted with Islamists, belligerents and anarchists. The current regime is considering cancellation and would it in fact be implemented? Or, is the business deal more lucrative than the end result? And, even in the event of a cancellation the next regime with the squad (and its likely proliferation) as its official mouth piece will certainly reverse any unfavorable decision now enacted. US politics is certainly accommodating Islam and it is currently seeing to it that sympathy remains vogue as it influence the minds in school and university. The only way out is for the ruling regime to have and consolidate a means to concretize an antipathy towards Muslim groupthink
joanofark06 says
I don’t understand, where our government thinks they can deal with an islamist president of an islamist country. They’ll always lie to ya, and/or stab you in the back, whenever they get a chance. But oh well, Trump thinks that Saudi Arabia is our ally too, so apparently our government still doesn’t know “islam”!! Or just chooses to ignore it, and it’s teachings.
seabird says
I don’t like Erdogan nor think Turkey should have become a member of NATO but I’m starting to wonder if the failed coup against him was initiated by the CIA?
Knowing he was taking Turkey “south” down Jihad lane and with all the nato infrastructure at risk, wouldn’t it be easier just to replace its leader with someone more compliant to NATO interests?
That could explain his paranoia and insistence on having the s-400 (as protection against NATO) the purge of the military and the jailing of tens of thousands of citizens.
About 300 people were killed in that coup and reportedly a plane carrying Erdogan was nearly shot down (supposedly the Russians tipped him off preventing it).
Was the CIA involved in this failed attempt because that would mean it has another “Bay of Pigs” endevour on its record?
Will we ever get the truth, maybe in 50 years along with the full 9-11 report?
Brian hoff says
The real reason is the turkey goverment doesnot trust they own airforce as it was the leader of the coup. The america air defense missle willnot target NATO aircrafts.