Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been making trouble again for his supposed allies in Europe and America. Most important of these disagreements is the colossal contretemps over Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Prior to that purchase, Turkey had contracted to buy 100 F-35 planes from the Americans, and as have other members of NATO, was even allowed to participate in their manufacture by supplying 900 parts for the plane. But when Erdogan subsequently decided to buy the S-400 missile defense system, the Pentagon became alarmed, fearing a likely security breach if the Russian technicians who would naturally be in Turkey to help to set up and run the defense system were able to study the capabilities of the F-35s in evading S-400 missiles. Defense officials worry that having an F-35 customer also operate the S-400 could reveal the stealth fighter’s vulnerabilities to Russia, which could then use the S-400 to figure out what the F-35 looks like in a radar picture. After all, the S-400 was designed specifically to shoot down the F-35s. Despite repeated entreaties from Washington for Turkey not to take delivery of the S-400, Erdogan ignored the Pentagon. The first delivery of an S-400 system has been completed; it is now at a base outside Ankara. And by way of response, no F-35s have been sent to Turkey.
Many American politicians and high-ranking officers made it clear in recent months that “Turkey can have the S-400 or it an have the F-35, but it can’t have both.” Erdogan did not heed that warning. He appears to have believed that the Americans wouldn’t dare to cut off F-35 sales to a NATO ally. He may also have assumed that the sale of 100 F-35s would go through because Lockheed Martin, with its lobbyists and powerful friends in Congress, would fight to keep a contract worth $16 billion over the 10-year life of the contract. But Lockheed Martin has many other potential customers for the F-35 waiting in the wings. Erdogan may also believe that the Americans wouldn’t in the end cancel the sale of F-35s because the Turks might close down Incirlik, the air base in Turkey used by the Americans. In fact, over the past year Turkish officials have suddenly, without warning, temporarily shut down the runways at Incirlik. One high-ranking Turkish official has warned that Incirlik itself might be permanently shut down to further Turkish policies, an attempt at blackmail that the Americans shrugged off.
The Turks overlook the fact that there are other possible airbases in the eastern Mediterranean that the Americans could use. In the northeastern Sinai, there is Eitam, the air base built by the Israelis when they controlled the Sinai. Both Israel and Egypt would welcome an American presence there, to help in the ongoing campaigns against the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood in the Sinai; Egypt would also welcome the rent the Americans would pay for use of the base. And Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates would see such an American base as a clear warning to Iran not to carry out further aggression against its neighbors.
It’s not possible for Erdogan to back down; no, having taken delivery of the S-400, he can’t send it back to the Russians. That would be an intolerable humiliation. And Erdogan wants to retain both the respect and the friendship of Vladimir Putin. So he won’t be getting the F-35s, just as the Americans has repeatedly warned. And if he tries one last tactic, to threaten to shut down Incirlik unless the F-35s are released for delivery, the Americans can promptly start letting it be known that they have an alternative base, Eitam, in the Sinai; that they’ve already been in negotiations with General El-Sisi, and it looks like a better alternative to Incirlik, one that — surrounded by desert — is easier to defend, and that puts American airpower closer both to Iran and to the terrorist encampments in the Sinai.
Not content with infuriating the Americans in his insistence on receiving the S-400 missile defense system, Erdogan has also infuriated the Europeans by his pressing forward with Turkish drilling for oil and natural gas in the territorial waters of the Republic of Cyrus. As is well known, the island of Cyprus is divided between the Greek-populated Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of northern Cyprus. Cyprus became divided after a coup d’état in 1974, performed as part of an attempt at “enosis” — that is, to annex the island to Greece — which prompted the Turkish invasion of Cyprus. This resulted in the eviction of much of the north’s Greek Cypriot population, the flight of Turkish Cypriots from the south, and the partitioning of the island, leading to a unilateral declaration of independence by the north in 1983. Due to its lack of recognition, Northern Cyprus is heavily dependent on Turkey for economic, political and military support.
The oil and gas bonanza in the Eastern Mediterranean was set off by the discovery, in Israeli waters, first of the huge Tamar natural gas field in 2009, and then in 2010, of the truly colossal natural gas field called Leviathan. Since then, there have been other offshore discoveries of natural gas fields, in Israeli, Egyptian, Greek, and Greek Cypriot waters. Turkey has interfered with the drilling by ENI, the Italian company, for natural gas in the waters off the Republic of Cyprus. Still worse, Turkey has illegally drilled in Greek Cypriot waters; when the E.U. threatened Turkey with sanctions, the Turks brushed off the complaints and instead started drilling at another site, also in the territorial waters belonging to the Republic of Cyprus.
As the New York Times reported, the E.U. has already started to impose financial and other sanctions in response to Turkey’s drilling:
Turkey’s relationship with the West suffered a fresh blow on Monday [July 18] when the European Union decided to suspend contacts between high-level officials, as well as to pull financial aid, in response to Turkey’s gas exploration in Cypriot national waters.
European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels said they would suspend about $164 million in aid to Turkey and shelve talks on an aviation accord. They also asked the European Investment Bank to review its lending to the country, which amounted to nearly $434 million in 2018.
Turkey has been benefiting from European Union funding as part of its now-stalled bid to join the bloc, while the aviation agreement that was under negotiation would have led to more passengers using Turkish airports, in particular the main international airport in Istanbul, as a transit hub.
The European Union measures came just days after the country’s relationship with the United States took a hit, with the first shipment of a Russian-made surface-to-air missile system to Turkey, a NATO member. Washington had warned that it would penalize Turkey for the purchase, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ahead with it anyway.
The measures announced on Monday by European foreign ministers stopped short of all-out sanctions against Turkish companies involved in drilling in the eastern Mediterranean, one of the bloc’s most strategically sensitive corners and a flash point in relations between European and Middle Eastern powers.
But they come as Turkey’s economy is struggling and could face painful, protracted economic sanctions from the European Union and the United States.
Cyprus has been partitioned between the ethnically Greek south and ethnically Turkish north since Turkey invaded in 1974. The administration of northern Cyprus is recognized only by Ankara.
Turkey said that Cyprus, a European Union member, and the internationally recognized government that controls most of the island, does not have rights to unilaterally explore for gas.
Cyprus must follow a plan proposed by the Turkish Cypriot leader to share gas revenue, and it claims to have the right to carry out exploratory missions itself, without approval from the government in the capital, Nicosia.
As a matter of international law, Cyprus has an absolute right to explore for natural gas in its own territorial waters; it is other nations, including Turkey, that do not.
The Northern (Turkish) Republic of Cyprus has not been recognized by any state except Turkey itself. But even if it had been, the Turkish Cypriots still would have had no right to drill for gas in the territorial waters of the Republic of Cyprus. The E.U. has begun sanctions on Turkey. First, it has ended $164 million in aid money. Second, it has asked the European Investment Bank to review its lending to Turkey, which amounted to nearly $434 million in 2018, obviously with an eye to cutting that investment way back, or eliminating it altogether. Erdogan’s unstable ways, his sudden outbursts, his authoritarian personality, his regime’s mismanagement of the Turkish economy, should in any case scare potential investors, such as the European Investment Bank, away. With its economy now sputtering, Turkey can ill afford to see European investment in the country decrease.
And what if the Turkish drillers were to find deposits of natural gas in Cypriot national waters? How would they bring it to market? What other countries would be willing to help Turkey violate international law? And even if Turkey could on its own somehow lift the gas, how would it deliver the oil, with what pipelines, constructed to move the gas through Cypriot territorial waters to what would almost certainly be its only customer, that is, Turkey itself? Wouldn’t there be fury over Turkey essentially taking oil that belonged rightfully to Cyprus? Might not Greece, under its new conservative premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis (who happens to be very pro-Israel), make common cause with Israel to physically prevent that pipeline from ever being built? Turkey has no defenders of its illegal actions in the waters of Cyprus. Economic pressure would continue to ratchet up, with individual members of the E.U., and not just the E.U. itself, ending their aid to Turkey. Investment, too, could suffer, in an attempt to get Turkey to halt its drilling in the waters of the Republic of Cyprus. So far, Erdogan has been denying the gravity of his country’s economic problems; he still refuses to go to the I.M.F. But thanks to Turkish drilling in Cypriot waters, when he does finally approach the I.M.F., hat in hand, for aid, he may find that the I.M.F. will be in no mood to help, given Turkish misdeeds in Cypriot waters.
Erdogan recently has misjudged on every front. His acceptance of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia has infuriated the Americans and has led Washington to put the F-35 sale to Turkey on hold — in other words, to cancel it. He doesn’t seem to care that the Russians would be able, with their access to Turkish F-35s, to determine the weaknesses both of the F-35 and of the S-400 that the Russians designed specifically to defend against that plane. Other members of NATO, too, that have ordered the F-35, are angered that Erdogan chose to ignore the security problem arising from Russian knowledge of the effectiveness of the F-35 in evading S-400 missiles. He will not receive the F-35; what’s more, there are many articles now appearing in Europe and America urging that Turkey be booted out of NATO. It may come to pass.
Economically, Turkey has gone from bad to worse. The country now has a negative growth rate. Both aid to, and investment in, Turkey have been cut, a direct result of Erdogan’s disregard of international law in drilling for gas in Cyprus’s territorial waters. Even if the Turks were to discover a profitable field, they will be opposed every step of the way in their efforts to lift and transport such gas — in the first place, by the countries in the immediate neighborhood (the Republic of Cyprus, Greece, and Israel), and then by those many nations who have ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and wish it to be upheld.
Erdogan’s party, the AKP, recently lost elections in the three largest cities in Turkey — Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. It was a tremendous loss, made even more humiliating in Istanbul because that was where Erdogan got his start, and had his base, as mayor. His authoritarian ways, his lust for power and wealth (he can count his $58 million dollar fortune in the 1,100 room palace, or Ak Saray, that he has had built for himself), have been abundantly manifest in his arrogance in dealing with Turkey’s American ally, whether demanding that Fethulleh Gulen be extradited from Pennsylvania, or imprisoning Pastor Andrew Brunson on trumped-up charges in order to use him in a possible swap for Gulen, or ignoring Washington’s entreaty not to take delivery of the S-400.
Erdogan appears to be in a downward spiral, politically and economically, from which he is unlikely to extricate himself. He will not be sadly missed.
Angemon says
The sooner the better.
Muhammad Abdullah Said says
From the website it’s obvious it an Isamophobic one .
All your writing is colonial minded. That no Muslim Country can be free to decide its destiny
Competent policy makers are in Turkey to decide whats best for there country
They can always change course if they feel they have made the wrong choices but it’s not the work of colonial minded to decide for Turkey
Angemon says
“From the website it’s obvious it an Isamophobic one .”
yes, what could there possibly be islamic about “jhad”?
“All your writing is colonial minded.”
What, exactly, have I written that is “colonial minded”?
“That no Muslim Country can be free to decide its destiny”
Where arre you getting that from? I certainly have never written such a thing.
“Competent policy makers are in Turkey to decide whats best for there country”
Like the “competent” politicians that decided to mass murder Armenians?…
“They can always change course if they feel they have made the wrong choices but it’s not the work of colonial minded to decide for Turkey”
Criticizing Turkish politics = “colonial minded deciding for Turkey”. Your nonsense is dully noted… BTW, are you tossing the word “colonial” around the same way some people toss the words “racist” or “islamophobic” around – as a tool to dismiss criticism out of hand without actually address it?
Christianblood says
Turkey is making an statement and that statement is: we are an independent state and we can buy from anyone, anywhere and they are right. Watch the in-depth, expert discussion of this whole thing on the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Mjp11xlow
Angemon says
Christianblood before the Turks waved money at Russia:
“Turkey let tens of thousands of international islamic jihadist mercenaries to go to Syria through the Turkish border and wage a murderous barbaric jihad war against the Syrian government and its people! Syria was almost over run by the Saudi/Turkish/America/Qatar and Western-backed barbaric jihadist killers who would have massacred millions of Christians”
Christianblood after Turkey waved money at Russia:
“The Turks can buy weapons from whomever they want. Also, The West, US, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are bad, mmmmkkkaaayyy?”
Christianblood says
Angemon
Both statements are True!
Angemon says
And here we see CB’s cognitive dissonance at full force – he claims that the Turks are involved in a plot to murder millions of Christians in Syria but, after Turkey buying weapons from his very own Russia, he simply does not care whether or not Turkey will provide said weapons to the terrorist groups he claims Turkey supports – the ones that, according to him, Turkey is using to murder millions of Christians.
Soulless little ghoul, isn’t he?
gravenimage says
It looks as though christianblood is in favor of Turkey buying weapons from the Russians to wage violent Jihad. Who can be surprised?
11B40 says
Greetings:
My understanding is that Erdogan’s Turkey also has some trouble coming up with its 2% of GDP NATO dues. But then most of our NATO “allies” seem to.
Christianblood says
11B40
The fact is Nato (North Atlantic Terrorist Organization) is OBSOLETE and it has to dissolve!
Angemon says
I’m pretty sure that former Warsaw pact countries wouldn’t see NATO’s dissolve with good eyes, since they turned to it for protection against Russian imperialism…
Christianblood says
Angemon
Nato is dissolving as we speak! It is time is up and it can’t be saved!
Your Islamist buddy and a member of Nato, Erdogan has just threatened to invade Cyprus which is what I was talking about for a while now and the pro-Islamist US and EU will surely support him in this:
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-is-prepared-to-reinvade-cyprus-if-needed-erdogan/
Angemon says
“Nato is dissolving as we speak! It is time is up and it can’t be saved!”
Citations needed.
“Your Islamist buddy”
The only one with “islamist” buddies here is you, who routinely defends islamic terror roups and islamic terror-sponsoring nations.
“and a member of Nato, Erdogan has just threatened to invade Cyprus which is what I was talking about for a while now”
According to you, Turkey is a sovereign nation that can buy weapons from whomever they want. If the weapons they buy from your very own Russia kill Cypriots, what will you say? Oh, right – you’ll do what you do every time: blame it on the US…
In any case, I maintain what I said and you failed to address: I’m pretty sure that former Warsaw pact countries wouldn’t see NATO’s dissolve with good eyes, since they turned to it for protection against Russian imperialism…
gravenimage says
What projection. Angemon has never called any Islamist his buddy–it is christianblood who is applauding Erdogan buying weaponry here.
Mano says
It was the US, UK supported Turkey over the years in assisting Turks to kill Greeks, history repeating itself it’s now Russia turn just like the Bolsheviks time supporting Attaturk in killing Greeks, Armenians etc. Turkey being military armed by Russia to exterminate Greeks and Greek Cypriots. At least the leftwing bastard is no longer in Power in Athens. Greece has tough times ahead, need to prepare for Gorellia war fare with this Islamist Turkic scum. Unfortunately Greece doesnt have NUKES.
Kenek says
1. Identify the US traitors who wanted to be “allies” with the Christian hating moslems in Turkey in the first place.
2. Publish all their names and family affiliation. No doubt the entire Demonrat clan, is involved as well as some globalist Republicans (fake conservatives).
3. Arrange jail time and removal of all government benefits for each member of their traitorous families.
4. Let these traitors go to Turkey for their : health care, social security checks, protection, education, and everything else normally funded by the government.
jewdog says
I’ve read that the EU actually has over 4 billion in aid sunk into Turkey and that this latest cutback is only a small portion of that. Well, at least it’s something.
CRUSADER says
Turks invaded and encroached upon Cyprus and yet the UN did nothing!
The UN complains ad nauseam about Israeli settlements, even though
that territory was forfeit when Jordan evacuated after Israel won at warfare
against the Muslim Arabs.
Maybe one day, the Greeks will take back territory along the Ionian coast,
after the atrocities Turks subjected them to expelled the Greeks only
100 years ago…
It would be nice to visit a Christianized Constantinople and Smyrna.
Giacomo Latta says
”a Christianized Constantinople”?
Obviously not someone with democratic leanings.
SAFI says
Too bad the New York Times is so prone to repeating turkish propaganda memes about an ethnically “split” island with an “ethnically Turkish north”. Cyprus’ North is not Turkish “ethnically” but it’s Turkish invaded, occupied, plundered and ethnically cleansed. Before the turkish invasion which drove the Greek Christian majority out of the still occupied “North” 37% of Cyprus’ territory (which accounted for 70% of it’s GDP at the time) the Greeks were the overwhelming majority in ALL of Cyprus, North, South, East, West, Center, ALL OF IT was majority Greek. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Ethnographic_distribution_in_Cyprus_1960.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7JdaJn7skM4/TtkQRCj1RsI/AAAAAAAADs4/FKulP4N_d7Q/s1600/1974_July_ethnic+map_colored.jpg
I invite anyone to read the following article to help them understand both the Cyprus issue and to grasp turkey’s hypocrisy when it comes to advocating “minority rights” https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6499/turkey-cyprus
CRUSADER says
Trip to Cyprus!
Anybody?
SAFI says
@CRUSADER if by “trip” you’re implying a good ole Reconquista type CRUSADE for the defense of Free Cyprus and the liberation of the the occupied northern part from islamic yoke then Deus Vult!
SAFI says
Btw today’s the anniversary of the Cyprus jihad invasion. It started Saturday 20th July 1974. After conquering 37% of the island’s soil (incuding it’s most fertile parts) 45 years later Turkey is trying to lay claim on roughly 3/4 of Cyprus’s waters and whatever resources can be found therein. Once again the pretext which Turkey tries to present for it’s actions is the so called “rights” of the muslim minority(all of which resides in the turkish colony which Turkey has set up in the occupied north. Too bad for Turkish thugs that all the gas and oil deposits that have been found so far lay in the southernmost corner of Cyprus’s EEZ right next to the waters of Israel and Egypt, both of which are backing Cyprus’ government (as does Greece, France, Italy and even the United States). The only potential regional ally which Turkey has so far is the Muslim Brotherhood government in Tripoli (soon to be wiped out by Haftar)
SAFI says
And by “rights of Turkish Cypriots” Erdogan of course means his, Turkey’s, and Turkish Petroleum’s “fair cut” from Cyprus’ hydrocarbon finds.
CRUSADER says
So, exactly 5 years after the Moon Landing,
with all that “big step for humanity” message…
the jerk Turks invaded Cyprus…
That’s really Big of them!
Joe says
With “allies” like Turkey, we don’t need enemies.
Eric Jones says
As I have stated many times before Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. We should close our base in Incirlik and all other facilities and move them to Greece. Erdogan wants all these weapons so that he can attack Cyprus. He will observe how the world reacts before further attacks to rebuild the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Erdogan is an Islamist. He was also Obama’s favorite foreign leader. That should tell us all what we need to know.
Eric
CRUSADER says
If only the Western powers could’ve been as prescient 100 years ago,
when the Greeks were occupying much of the Ionian coast and Constantinople….
Charles Ford Ford says
Turkey may understand the F 35 will never be combat ready. The US should leave Turkey immediately and use the Sinai location as a replacement. The EU as usual, is wasting their time with sanctions. Force is what is required on those drilling points and eviction by force. Erdogan is a Turkish Muslim using jihad to try and rebuild the Ottoman Empire. That empire inlcudes Jerusalem by the way
jca reid says
Erdogan is a prime example of Islamic Intolerance, Fascistic tendencies & megalomania.
Ragdoll says
He’s mad.
He’s madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of last year’s Mr Madman competition…