In a recent BESA paper, Dr. Hillel Frisch presents the evidence that the coronavirus has spread from Iran throughout the “Shiite crescent,” a diffusion that testifies not to the Iranian government’s geopolitical power but to its incompetence and weakness in dealing with the epidemic.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Shiite communities are regarded by the Islamic Republic as key tools with which to penetrate and ultimately conquer the Arab world, and pilgrimages back and forth to Shiite holy centers in Iran and Iraq are central to the regime’s ideological identity. But the holiest city in Iran, Qom, is now an epicenter for the spread of the coronavirus. The Shiite crescent is thus functioning as a boomerang to spread the epidemic both out of and back into Iran.
Iran’s Shiite crescent, which until recently reflected its imperial reach into the Arab world, has now become pathological with the spread of Covid-19 (the official name of the coronavirus pathogen).
A study released on February 24 by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota inadvertently revealed how salient Iran’s religious ties to Shiite communities in Arab states have been and continue to be in the spread of the epidemic.
The five Middle Eastern countries that first reported Covid-19 cases—Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman—all have substantial Shiite populations, and all the cases cited are clearly linked to Iran. The first confirmed case in Afghanistan was flagged in Herat province, which is in the country’s west on the Iranian border. Another sufferer had recently returned from the city of Qom, Iran’s Shiite religious center and, tellingly, the epicenter of the disease in Iran. The first Bahraini to be confirmed as having succumbed to Covid-19 had also just been in Iran, as had all three cases first reported in Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman.
And since Dr. Frisch’s paper appeared, Saudi Arabia has announced its first coronavirus patient – a Shi’ite who had returned from Iran.
The link between Shiite pilgrimage and the spread of the virus is to be found at its source in the region: Iran, specifically the religious city of Qom.
As the University of Minnesota report notes, eight of 18 new cases in Iran were in Qom compared to three in the metropolis of Tehran, which has a population seven times greater. Qom has been the site of 40% of the cases identified so far in Iran though it comprises less than 3% of the population.
It is in the holy city of Qom that Shi’a theology students and pilgrims both from Iran and from communities outside Iran find themselves in crowded mosques and teeming seminaries, places where the transmission of the coronavirus has been more likely to take place than elsewhere in Iran. Indeed, though Qom has only 3% of the Iranian population, 40% of the coronavirus cases in Iran have been traced to Qom. The Iranian clerics have naturally been reluctant – in fact unwilling so far even to consider — to lock down the holy city in quarantine, as the Chinese did in Wuhan; this failure, however, has enabled the virus to spread not just all over ran, but also from Iran to a half-dozen countries in the region, including Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman, and now Saudi Arabia.
Iraq and other Arab states with substantial Shiite populations have grown understandably apprehensive about pilgrimage to Qom. Flights between Qom and Najaf, the holy city in Iraq, which neighbors a third holy city, Karbalah, usually outnumber flights between the capital cities of Tehran and Baghdad, indicating that most movement between the countries has to do with religious observance and pilgrimage rather than business and commerce. But the Iraqi authorities have banned entry into the country by Iranian nationals and prohibited travel by Iraqi nationals to Iran, and have ceased flights between Tehran’s Khomeini airport (which services Qom, a three-hour drive away) and Najaf.
Such moves might be too late. The day after the halt on Iraqi-Iranian travel, Iraq announced its first case of Covid-19.
Data for China indicate that one of around 30 cases of the virus results in death (2,873 deaths out of 79,968 cases as of March 1). The percentage outside China is slightly lower because most of the states in which there have been confirmed cases are more advanced and have benefited from the opportunity to learn from the steps China has taken to control the spread of the virus.
Iran recently announced 43 deaths out of 593 confirmed cases compared with 29 fatalities out of just over 1,128 cases in Italy—the most afflicted European state so far. The ratio in Italy—one death per 39 cases—roughly conforms to the ratio of fatalities to confirmed cases in China and elsewhere. In the case of Iran, however, the ratio is strikingly worse: it appears to be one death per 14 people infected.
The official statistics offered by Iranian officials can be interpreted in one of two ways, and both reflect badly on Iran’s government. If it is telling the truth, and there are far more fatalities among confirmed cases than anywhere else in the world, that bespeaks a failure of the medical system in Iran. If the government is lying about the number of cases, as most outside observers believe, in order to make it seem that the Iranian government has the epidemic under control, that means the public, which has other sources of information about the epidemic in Iran readily available on the Internet, will distrust everything the government says about the coronavirus, even when it happens to be telling the truth.
This is a deeply worrying statistic, particularly as there are concerns that Iran is failing to identify many Covid-19 cases. If true, this means some infected sufferers are not being put into quarantine, which increases the likelihood that the virus will spread.
There is a strong suspicion based on the quality of the data provided by Iran’s ministry of health that the Covid-19 epidemic inside the country might be far more widespread than the regime says it is, and doubts about Iran’s reporting and ability to act efficiently to contain the virus are swirling both within and without the country. A recent report filed by the London Times correspondent from Tehran quotes Iranians as saying they believe the real number of fatalities is four times the figure being given by regime authorities.
The ramifications of Iran’s becoming a source of disease are more than medical. The Islamic Republic has seen wide-scale protests in Iraq and Lebanon against regimes it warmly supports. In Iraq in particular, Iranian consulates have become targets of protester anger.
Iran’s failure to control its Covid-19 problem will hardly endear it to protesters in Iraq and Lebanon, many of whom feel their states are being damaged by Iran’s involvement in their domestic affairs.
In Lebanon, there have been months of protests against the government for its corruption and mismanagement. A leading defender of the government is Iran’s puppet Hezbollah, which has thereby earned both it, and its Iranian backer, the rage of those protesters. And it is not just Sunnis and Christians but also many Shi’a who have joined the protesters who are attempting – so far without success – to replace the government of crooks in favor of one with technocrats.
Lebanese politics are paralyzed, while the economy continues to crater. And because Hezbollah so ardently continues to support the government, both it and its backer Iran are now held in disrepute even among Shi’a. Some Hezbollah members, disgusted with Nasrallah’s policies, have even torn up their Hezbollah cards in public, demonstrating the depth of their displeasure.
Al says
In all fairness, most secular humanist and other western governments aren’t doing any better in their attempts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
In addition, the article contains some sloppy coverage in that it gets the name of the virus wrong:
“Covid-19 (the official name of the coronavirus pathogen)”
COVID-19 (proper spelling is capitalized) is the name of the disease, not the name of the pathogen.
Uncommon Sense says
It is most likely that the cases and deaths are massively understated because they simply don’t have the numbers; just as likely as any purposeful deceit.
While I believe Iran is much worse than the US re: tracking and containment, we are also showing our incompetence and live in a glass house re criticizing others.
Our ability to test large numbers of people right now is really sucking. What’s up with that!?
b.a. freeman says
“what’s up with that” is that until *very* recently, no test kits were approved by the national government. the manufacturers, however, were free to manufacture them, so they did so and sold them to other countries. as usual, the f***ing government just gets in the way. the only thing it is really good for is the military and law. the former is as hosed as anything else it does, but at least is done better than any other country in the world, while the latter has been used to attack the republic for the past century, especially in recent decades. hopefully, mr. ttrump’s appointment of strict constructionists will slow the decay of the republic.
gravenimage says
The Washington Post says that Iran is burying victims in mass graves. If this is the case, it must be *far* worse than in Italy, where the death toll has been a little over 1,200.
Carol the 1st says
Uncommon…it seems Trump has been working on this for weeks behind the scenes and on Friday (afternoon?) he announced some things e.g. testing kits, and has really picked up the ball. He’s even offered some help to Iran.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
Sorry — “Covid-19 (the official name of the pathogen)” is a direct quote from Dr. Frisch’s paper that I didn’t think I should change in any way. I certainly see, and thank you, for your point.
mortimer says
Disagree. Western countries were taken by surprise but they are doing a very good job of stopping the spread of Covid-19. Not an easy thing to quarantine hundreds of millions of people who need to do their jobs so society can be cared for.
However, the mullahocracy is a bunch of 7th century primitives. And the their primitive thinking will be their downfall.
Terry Gain says
Canada is doing nothing to halt the spread of this virus. No screenings or travel bans even though 90% of the infections are acknowledged to be travel related.
Ray Jarman says
Spot on Mortimer.
Carol the 1st says
Testing kits will still be valuable but most individuals now need to focus on the DELAY stage (my words based upon Dr. Campbell below). It’s exceedingly important we all do our share and stay apart as much as we can in order to delay the PEAK and the HEIGHT of this virus. At the first sign of sickness STAY HOME from work (likely for at least a week). These first few days is when you’re MOST contagious. Most of us will then begin to feel a little better but SOME PEOPLE will instead then begin to have an IMMUNOLOGICAL RESPONSE which leads to INFLAMMATION and if they don’t get ANTIBIOTICS within a day or two they will die or end up with seriously damaged lungs.
Minimizing the the spread and the stress upon our front line people (probably for a few years) is the only way that our countries will be able to protect each other and our societies. We must DELAY and lower the Peak as best as we can. IT IS A JOINT EFFORT.
Dr. John Campbell put out his important article Friday (based upon England but very relevant to all) and it’s titled:
Vital Global Information Please watch
Giacomo Latta says
We must celebrate the efforts of Justin Trudeau who believes Canada must include Covid-19 into its way of, well, mostly life. Thanks to his outstanding accomplishment of happily shaking hands with an Iranian politico and smiling rather than forcefully demanding reparations for the 57 innocent Canadians killed by the Iranian military, he has managed to bring Covid-19 back to Canada and pass it on to his wife who is now positive. Covid-19 must attack the brain and, seeing nothing there, just continued on.
Carol the 1st says
Perhaps Justin didn’t want to suspend flights because it might hurt the feelings of his benefactor, the Shiite Aga Khan? Justin is very concerned about form and manners and will only exclude the intolerably rude.
FYI says
Iran has been spreading its metaphorical Koranovirus of Terrorism throughout the middle East for a lot longer.We know where all that violence and Terror originates from:the koran.
Buraq says
The Shiite coronavirus problem has really hit the fan! Clowns!
Carol the 1st says
Do we detect mirth?
jewdog says
As a precautionary measure, the KSA should behead all pilgrims returning from Qom. This will help contain contagion from the virus as well as from diseased ideas.
Carol the 1st says
Killing two birds with a second Islamic stone!
mortimer says
I personally wish Islam could be quarantined. Anyone leaving Muslim countries would have to renounce Islam forever. That won’t happen. (sigh)
Carol the 1st says
That would be sooo tit for tat in view of the fact their stated purpose in life is to convert/tax/or kill all others!
Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY) says
Let’s fight the corona virus with music:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFk5w-vXS8
Carol the 1st says
That shrine some true believers are licking up to contains the corpse of the Ayatollah KHOMEINI, does it not? How ironic if that should be the seal on the enterprise.
gravenimage says
Iran Spreads the Coronavirus Throughout the Middle East (Part 1)
………………..
Yes–As bad as things are, Italy, South Korea, and the US are handling things in a pretty sane manner–Iran claims the cure for the Coronavirus is Jihad. What insanity.
Marigold says
I agree with Al liberal democracies in the West entrenched as they are in the ethos of individual freedom rather than the welfare of the whole group have in my opinion tended to waffle about how rigorously they should act to try and contain the virus.Italy is a prime example of what can happen when a Western liberal democracy waffles too long. On the other hand we have countries like Iran focusing on the ‘divine punishment’ aspect as if it were that simple and humankind can’t do anything about it. Is there no wise leadership left in the world which people can have confidence in?
Carol the 1st says
Just keep talking and sharing (presently in self-contained way) and having faith in one another. We’re almost all on the same ship!
The Sound of Silence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Dg-g7t2l4
James Lincoln says
Marigold says,
“Is there no wise leadership left in the world which people can have confidence in?”
Yes there is, Marigold, but it is getting harder and harder to find in Western countries. Pres. Trump is a wise leader along with the leaders of the V4 Visegrad countries Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia. And there are a few others…
These strong and decisive leaders are being constantly torn down by the leftist / politically correct mainstream media and the leftist / socialist / globalist politically elite – all in synergy with muslims / muslim apologists.
Carol the 1st says
All the better to reveal themselves, I say! Hear, hear!
Carol the 1st says
Akkad Daily is having fun with all the calmly hysterical responses. He particularly enjoys pointing out on a map that RUSSIA remains remarkably free of cases – and how this coincides with the fact they immediately made sure their BORDERS (naughty word?) were closed! The EU is busy trying to punish and get money out of its vassals (probably to share with Erdogan??). Title of the video is:
CORONAVIRUS CANCELS CIVILISATION
Carol the 1st says
P.S. Mexico is trying to close its borders with the United States now! You can’t make this stuff up!
AntiIslamicman says
It might spread faster in Islamic countries due to some of their unclean practices such as drinking camel piss, they think it’s a cure according to the false prophet Muhammad
Carol the 1st says
Too bad they’re gonna take a lot of nice, intelligent Persians with them!