The theocratic regime of Iran is imploding. After forty-one years of iron-fisted arrogance, breath-taking deceit and stupefying incompetence, the rule of the mullahs has so impoverished and infuriated the long-suffering Persian population that the masses are poised to rise up and topple their unwelcome government.
In the last four months, natural, political and economic events have brought Iran to the tipping point. November 15th, 2019 marked the onset of popular protests against the regime, sparked by the announcement of an immediate tripling of the price of gasoline across the country. Under crippling economic sanctions by the USA and its trading partners, the Iranian government was facing shortages of cash and supplies, and skyrocketing inflation.
In the attempt to bring in more money to its coffers, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his cronies, decided to ease the regime’s burdens by sucking more of the dwindling resources of its citizens. The people responded with massive demonstrations that spread swiftly across the country. At first, the focus was on the unconscionable price-hike of such a necessary commodity for everyday life. Quickly, though, the protests turned into a no-confidence vote against the regime and its hypocritical leaders. (Everyone knows, for example, that the Supreme Leader sits on a private fortune accrued while in office of some 95 billion dollars while the average Iranian scrambles to keep his family from starving.)
As protests continued, the regime responded with violence to dissuade further anti-government activity. It didn’t work. For over six weeks people continued to march in the streets, burn gas stations, police buildings, government centers and seminaries, occupy universities to make their demands known.
They chanted, “Death to Khamenei;” “No money to Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis or Syria; Give Our Money to Iran;” “Mullahs, Get Out.” The government in turn descended into Gestapo-like tactics, beating people mercilessly, firing rubber bullets at first into crowds, then turning to real bullets, employing military sharpshooters on city rooftops with orders to take headshots so as to kill targets immediately and terrorize protesters around them. When all was said and done, the regime had killed over 1500 of its own citizens, wounded three times that number, and arrested over 10,000 others. To this day, the government has refused to release an “official” tally of the dead. When asked, senior officials simply say, “The coroners have those numbers.” The morgues, on the other hand, say, “We have sent our figures to the senior officials.” So the bob and weave of deception continues, to the disgust of the citizenry.
Shortly after the protests began to dissipate, news broke that on January 8th Ukraine Air flight 752, bound from Tehran to Kiev, had crashed shortly after take-off a few hours after Iran had launched missiles at an Iraqi-American airbase in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Suleimani. The Iranian regime quickly reported that the plane suffered mechanical difficulties. Soon after, they blamed the disaster on pilot error. When supposition arose that the jet might have been shot down accidentally by missiles, senior Iranian leaders decried this notion as “psychological warfare” and “an American lie.”
Finally, on January 11th, after incontrovertible satellite and video evidence proved the plane had been struck by two surface to air missiles, the regime reluctantly admitted what it had known from the beginning, that the operator of one of its military missile batteries had mistakenly concluded the airliner was a “hostile target,” and ordered missiles, three minutes apart, to shoot down the passenger jet.
When this news hit the airwaves, people once again poured into the streets, erupting with anger over their “divinely-guided” government’s duplicity. Popular chants once again pointed to the odium they bore their Shi’ite overlords: “They are lying that our enemy is America; our enemy is right here!” In disgust, many made known their intention to disavow the government however they could.
At the same time, in mid-January, torrential flooding affected four provinces in the south of Iran: Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan and Kerman. Due to the economic and political paralysis of the central government, little to no aid was available to help overwhelmed residents. Roughly six weeks later, heavy storms in northern Iran caused massive flooding and destruction to hundreds of villages and roadways over fourteen provinces, stranding thousands of people.
Again, no help was available from the government. The locals erupted with anger at officials who had promised after similar flooding in 2019 that they would dredge rivers and improve dams to prevent future floods. That had not happened. Resources were not available for such work due to corruption, incompetence and insouciance.
Shortly before the worst of the flooding in the north, two powerful earthquakes struck northwestern Iran on Sunday, Feb. 23rd. The first registered 5.7 on the Richter scale, and hit in the early morning hours. The second, an aftershock, registered 5.9 and occurred later in the day. Lives were lost as many buildings toppled to the ground. Two days later (2/25), a 4.9 temblor struck south-central Iran. While earthquakes are not uncommon in this region of the world, what is stirring the rage of the people is the lack of rapid and effective response by their government. In fact, there is little to no response at all, for the bottom of the government’s barrel has already been scraped clean by self-serving mullahs, their obsequious mandarins, and the armed forces they pay handsomely to keep the riff-raff at bay.
As if all this were not enough, southwestern Iran faced a record-breaking locust invasion beginning in mid-February. A year ago, the area faced a similar invasion. Officials described that plague as “consisting of millions.” This year’s infestation, they say, numbers in the billions.
One observer estimated over 500 million locusts per square kilometer. As they march from west to east across Iran, they are eating every plant in sight. How has the government responded to this disaster? With dissimulation, negligence, incompetence and mismanagement. The inaction of the government prior to spawning season, when insecticide spraying should have been done, has led to this mammoth horde now eating its way across Iran’s agricultural heartland.
And then we come to the novel Corona virus and its attendant disease, COvid-19. There are indications that this virus first entered Iran in early February and that the highest echelons of the regime knew of its presence. The religious city of Qom, home to some of Shi’ism’s holiest shrines and beloved by most of Iran’s mullahs, is where the Corona virus broke out. Even though the governmental clerics knew of the outbreak, they cloaked the truth from their people and the world for as long as possible until the first two victims died in Qom.
Why? Because they needed to protect their delusional image of a government favored by Allah and beloved of its people, as the “Islamic Revolution” which continues to prosper and bless its Muslim citizens. Two critical events were to occur in February, and it was necessary for their fantasy that the world see huge public turnouts of support from the population. If news about the contagion broke out too soon, people would likely stay home, and their propaganda would be imperiled. So they quashed unofficial reports and jailed journalists who wouldn’t toe the party line. The first big event was the celebration of the 41st anniversary of the birth of the Islamic Republic of Iran, on Feb. 11th. Festivities were planned across the country, but especially in the capital city of Tehran, where massive crowds were expected. However, when the day came, empty streets and deserted squares were the stark reality. By refusing to show up, people pronounced their loathing of the government. “Our vote is for regime change.” So said the graffiti.
The Supreme Leader, Khamenei, and President Rouhani, tried to put their best spin on this humiliation by the masses, and set their sights on a better outcome at the second critical event – the Parliamentary elections to be held on Feb. 21st. Since candidates for every slot had to be “vetted and approved” by the Supreme Leader and his sycophantic, hardline Guardian Council, any” so-called “moderate” candidate was disqualified, and only those loyal to Khamenei were allowed to run. Many noted that Feb. 21st would not mark a day of election but one of selection – selecting those whom the Supreme Leader had pre-ordained. As the day approached, opposition leaders pled with fellow citizens to boycott the elections in order to send a strong message that the regime had lost its legitimacy. The people responded, in spite of appeals and threats by Khamenei, Rouhani and others, by staying home. The regime reported the next day a highly-inflated figure, saying that over 41% of eligible voters had participated, but even so had to admit that even this artificial number marked the lowest voter turnout since the Revolution of 1979.
Only after this debacle did the mullahs begin to talk more openly of the coronavirus, which now became a convenient excuse for the low turnout at both national events. “People stayed home,” they said, “out of fear. Foreign governments (read: USA and Israel) whipped up fabricated stories of fatalities and epidemics in order to keep people away from our national celebration and elections.” As usual in the Islamic world (whether Shi’ite or Sunni), when bad things happen the blame is not to be found with Muslim beliefs, practices or institutions, but with non-Muslims who are always conspiring to destroy Islam.
When not casting blame, Muslim leaders seem to love the art of subterfuge. So even after acknowledging the presence of the coronavirus in the country, the Iranian leadership intentionally misled its own populace as well as the larger world by grossly underreporting the rapid spread and number of deaths caused by COvid-19. Khamenei and his underlings downplayed its seriousness (“a passing issue;” “nothing exceptional”) and refused to take decisive actions (except to arrest those who exposed the truth). The clerics in Qom refused the recommendation that they should close down the pilgrimage centers, particularly the Masoumeh Shrine.
The same was true in Mashhad, Iran’s other “holy city.” Some mullahs even encouraged more pilgrims, assuring them that by attending the shrines they would be immunized from the coronavirus.
As news of the rapid spread of the virus in Iran reached the public, once again people expressed fury toward their leaders for their lies, inaction, incompetence and callousness. Officials rejected the use of quarantines, arguing such practices were ineffective and “belong to the Stone Age.” As hospital beds filled up across the country, it became clear that the healthcare infrastructure nationwide was woefully inadequate. Medicines were in short supply, masks and gloves were unavailable even to doctors and nurses, disinfectants were a distant pipedream. As people began probing, it turned out that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the military arm of government responsible to protect and advance “the revolution” within the country and to export it to the outside world – had gathered as many of these materials as possible and was hoarding them for two purposes: first, to dispense them as needed to the upper echelons of government and the elite citizenry; and second, to sell them on the local black market or to desperate nations (such as China) at highly inflated prices so as to line their own pockets. To mollify the angry crowds, they took cans of air freshener, relabeled them as disinfectant spray, and sold them to the unsuspecting public.
This callousness of the Shi’ite authorities has been revealed also in how Sunni villages and towns are completely ignored as the coronavirus spreads in their midst. Likewise, those incarcerated within Iran’s prison system receive little to no medical assistance. Overcrowding and lack of basic hygiene make for the perfect breeding ground for the virus. Sensing a disaster in the making, officials are floating the idea of releasing some 70,000 inmates back into society so as to obscure the regime’s incompetence in protecting its prison population. The fact that such a release would further endanger the public makes little difference to regime leaders.
The question of how the coronavirus first entered Iran led to a focus on the holy city of Qom, where the outbreak was first reported. In recent months over seven hundred Chinese Muslims have been welcomed for study at the al-Mustafa International University, a seminary in Qom dedicated to international students.
While other countries suspended flights to and from China after reports of the Wuhan virus outbreak, Iran refused to halt its air services. More and more Chinese Muslim students and businessmen poured into Iran principally through Mahan Air, a “private” air carrier owned by the IRGC. For the sake of profit in an economically-strapped regime, the IRGC has continued to fly both passenger and cargo jets to and from four cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou [Canton] and Shenzhen) in complete disdain for the health and safety of Iran’s citizens. Not surprisingly, Qom became the first internal epicenter of Iran’s Coronavirus epidemic. And because it is one of the most famous pilgrimage cities in Iran, it served as the infection center for all Iran (and many other countries with Shi’ite populations) as pilgrims returned home from visiting Qom’s religious shrines. Iran is fast becoming the Typhoid Mary of nations as to date at least fifteen nearby countries have traced the Coronavirus infection to travelers arriving from Iran.
Read the rest here.
Dude says
QED
mortimer says
The huge death toll from the virus will be the last straw for Iranians. They will hang the greedy mullahs from the lamp posts.
Laura says
I think they will need to ‘deal with’ the Revolutionary Guard first? The mullahs are too old to offer much resistance.
mortimer says
Ordinary people have relatives in paramilitary terrorist groups (such as the Basij) and the police, and the paramilitaries themselves will gradually see the futility of defending the criminals in charge against ordinary people.
Carol the 1st says
QED: “Quod Erat Demonstrandum” which loosely translated means “that which was to be demonstrated”. It is usually placed at the end of a mathematical proof to indicate that the proof is complete.
This article exposes so much! Mateen Elass is an ex-muslim who became a Christian. Youtube has a video titled: Mateen Elass: From Islam to Christianity – Haven Today
Ajay says
Very good. Topple the idiotic govt who did nothing but rather they helped spreading the virus.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
After over 40 years, this is a big opportunity. One must wonder though, is that if the people of Iran *do* overthrow the Islamic Republic, will they in some way revert to Islamism. One can only hope for the best, which would be a secular republic.
gravenimage says
Yes–the problem is that most Iranians are still Muslim.
Rueben_Singh says
But are they really or are they just pretending so as to avoid problems with the religious authorities?
I used to work with an Iranian chap, what he said to me was that so many Iranians have apostatised in private that when the regime falls, Iran may no longer be an islamic country. Iranians are turning to their ancient religion of zoroastrianism
Mosque attendance is minuscule compared to what it was when the revolution happened.
I asked one of the Iranian girls in my office, half joking “are you fasting?” she replied “only pigs fast!!”
The one sure way to put people people off religion is to let them have it. The poor Iranians have had this shit since 1979.
The other thing my Iranian friend told me was that the regime cannot really rely on the IRGC, because many people join it just for the perks, and will turn on their officers.
I was transitioning from Junior to High school when the revolution happened, I was fascinated by it, hopefully I will now get to see it go full circle.
gravenimage says
Rueben, I would *love* to believe that all Iranians are just pretending to be Muslims–but all too many seem to be true beleivers.
Carol the 1st says
At the time of the Revolution the muslims seemed to be just packing the streets and howling like banshees. No one had an Internet to use at that time, and the Shah was depicted as a monster. I imagine that country would have been in excellent shape if they’d retained him
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
It’s funny how incidental context can influence history. In this instance, Americans are primed to be interested in the trouble, and potential toppling, of the Islamic Republic. But the Wuhan is dominating our attention, everybody’s attention, even the Persians’ attention. So this teaching opportunity is largely lost to events, a shame because we should understand why the Mullahs did what they did to us, including the rat who led the kidnapping… and would later become President of Iran.
Carol the 1st says
Some people are never satisfied! It seems to me quite a good trade-off that the CORONAVIRUS CANCELS YOU KNOW WHAT CIVILIZATION – but then I’m not lying in a hospital bed!
Ray Jarman says
Having served for over twenty years in the US Army and knowing the close proximity each soldier is to his comrade, I wonder what the infection rate is in the forces. They probably live in barracks with bunk beds close to one another, eat in dining facilities next to each other, shower and perform other hygiene necessities. With a virus this contagious, I wonder how long the military will be able to perform the tasks dictated to the by the regime. If the numbers increase within the military as well as the municipal police units, the regime will be unable to protect themselves much less maintain power.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
On a related topic, did you know that the Spanish Influenza did not originate in Spain? It started elsewhere, but Spain was neutral in WWI and thus its newspapers objectively reported on it, unlike in German, the U.S. and other countries at war. It’s speculated that Germany lost the war because the death rate from the Spanish Influenza hurt is most. But the death rates among troops were high among the U.S. forces, the British, the French and others. Those countries kept silence on the pandemic so as to not hamper the ability to mount military forces.
Ray Jarman says
I have also read reports that stated there were more soldiers and marines lost due to malaria and other tropical deceases in the Pacific than by the enemy.
Carol the 1st says
They were jammed together and sick to death in the trenches with rats crawling all over them.
Mateen Elass says
Great insight, Ray. I will keep my eyes open, though the regime will no doubt try to squelch any hint of weakness in the military, knowing it could mean the uprising of the masses who presently are controlled only by the precise application of military and vigilante (Basiji) force.
mortimer says
When the government is weakened by the chaos caused by the virus, a mutiny will be possible from the military leaders.
Even the Basij may turn against the mullahs.
Carol the 1st says
I’m sure the mullahs are every bit as insightful and think of little else. Probably just a waiting game now – unless perhaps Khameini parts with his 97 billion.
James Lincoln says
Made some good points, Ray.
And thank you for your service in the U.S. Army…
GreekEmpress says
Yes, Mr. Jarman—many thanks!
eduardo odraude says
The virus doesn’t completely incapacitate young people (as in the military). They can pull a trigger at any rate. Their effectiveness will of course be diminished. But those Iranians who would fight them will presumably also be weakened.
gravenimage says
Ray, there have indeed been some cases of coronavirus reported in the US armed services.
AleX says
Replacing the regime by toppling the mullahs won’t mean anything for iran. The inhabitants should forbid islamists and clerics altogether in getting any position of power if they wish a structural change.
I am very optimistic in what concerns an ‘Iranian spring’ this year, yet I am pessimistic about Iranians excluding Islam. This pest will continue to erode societies until at some point in time it will be declared as illegal as the human sacrifice.
Mateen Elass says
AleX, my Iranian sources are fairly unanimous that after 41 years of Shi’ite theocracy, the masses are fed up with Islam ruling over them. Figures I hear from them are that at least 80% want the regime overthrown and want a secular government installed. Many are done with Islam totally, but of the remainder who still think of themselves as Muslims, they want the freedom to practice privately, not to be forced by Shi’ite overlords to march to their drumbeat. They hunger for freedom to wear what they want, associate with whom they wish, listen to whatever music pleases them, think what they wish and speak their minds without fear of reprisal. They want a government that no longer shames them in the international arena, and encouragement once more to pursue the arts and sciences for which they were once famous throughout Asia and the Middle East.
When they finally rise up and cast of the shackles of the mullahs, I don’t think the majority of Iranians will have any lingering taste for Muslim rule. Certainly Salafi Islamism (being both Sunni and fundamentalist) will have no appeal to them. My belief is that after a period of some chaos as rival groups seek to gain favor, a secular coalition under a strong leader will take charge. Hopefully, they will form a parliamentary government mirroring that of Britain, bringing the son of the Shah back as a figurehead to lend historical legitimacy to the new path. Who knows?
But, any government would be a step up from what the Persians are enduring now.
eduardo odraude says
While I believe that you are right that the majority of Iranians want to live under secular rule and to reject Islamic rule, still I suspect that if the majority do not reject Islam altogether, even in their own private lives, then in two generations after the fall of the Mullahs, Islam will again be pushing its way back into government because Muhammad, the prime exemplar, united religion and state in his own person. Even in a secularized Muslim people, jihadists will rise to intimidate the population and to slaughter people periodically in order to press increasing numbers to surrender to full-on Islam, which means Islamic government. If the majority does not reject the entire spiritual “DNA” of Islam, it will again and again produce similar results.
eduardo odraude says
In other words, my sense is that political Islam and private Islam can only be separated temporarily, because the core Islamic texts seem to make no distinction between religion and state and sanctify Islamic theocracy as the only proper way for a Muslim nation to live. Muslim dissent from such an outlook can only survive temporarily. Islam as a doctrine is inherently authoritarian and totalitarian and can only deviate from that for a time. Perhaps what Erdogan is doing to Ataturk’s secular Turkey is a good example of what I mean. Also, the fact that Ataturk had to institutionalize special army powers to keep Turkish democracy secular shows that Islam is indeed inherently authoritarian. If left to themselves in a democracy, Muslims will tend over time to compromise and then destroy democracy. Even in Indonesia, a nation about as far as one can get from the core of the Islamic world, where conversion of the nation to Islam did not happen by jihad but by syncretism, and where democracy more or less functions and Islam is relatively liberal, do we not see the beginning of authoritarian Islamic rule rising in the province of Aceh?
mortimer says
Mr.odraude is correct. Islam combines religion and politics in an eternal union. Muslims cannot find a way to keep them apart without creating an entirely different religion.
Islam means submission to the religion and to the Islamic state.
Muslims must be deprogrammed right out of Islam for them to lose faith in this totalitarian system.
Muslims must be convinced that the Koran is man-made.
gravenimage says
I hope you are right, Mr. Elass–but it’s been over forty years now. We’ll see…
Ade Fegan says
A you-tube video covering this would be priceless
tim gallagher says
“Stupefying incompetence” is what strikes me. What would these absolutely moronic Mullah scumbags know about running a country in the modern world? Absolutely nothing. They are surely some of the most backward, dumbest human beings on planet earth, wanting to drag people back to the old 7th century Arab style of living. I’d love to see them get overthrown, but I do worry that chaos there in Iran will just lead to more invading Muslim “refugees” finding their way into our western countries. I believe that all Muslims should be kept in their own hellhole countries because Islam can only drag more civilised and advanced countries down.
gravenimage says
Mulling the End of Iran’s Mullahcracy
………………………..
I hope so.
Jaydam says
I hope so too GI, but as we know, history always has a way of repeating its self.
gravenimage says
Grimly true. Jaydam.
Evelyn Riddle says
Most prisoners in Iran are the good guys
Carol the 1st says
They may be only letting those out with sentences of less than five years. The good guys likely got more?
Bruce Donaldson Scott says
Thank you, I always admire the apostates attacking Islam, may God be with them.
Queen B says
I have my doubts about the future of Iran. Given that so many truly believed that by making a pilgrimage to the old city and attending religious services there would immunize them from Covid19. There is obviously a higher percentage of moronic religious zealots than we otherwise thought.
gravenimage says
‘Fraid so…
SKA says
Yes but their own Moronicity is earning them the Darwin Award many times over.
Carol the 1st says
Well they weren’t the only ones getting a little too entwined with China and its supply lines. Steve Bannon seems to have a sound take on it all.