It was not even two months ago, at the beginning of January, that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President Putin seemed to be best friends forever. Turkey had continued to insist, against the wishes of the United States and other NATO members, on buying the Russian S-400 missile defense system, even if that infuriated the Americans (which also meant that Turkey would not be allowed to buy the American F-35 stealth fighter jet). At a meeting in Istanbul on January 8, the two leaders inaugurated TurkStream, the dual natural gas line connecting their countries, opening up a new export path for Russian gas into Turkey and Europe. Both Erdogan and Putin were beaming, promising ever greater cooperation in trade and diplomacy. That was then.
But this is now. At the very end of February, Turkey was threatening to destroy the advancing Syrian army in Idlib, and also wanted to make sure that Russia would keep out of any direct involvement on the Syrian side. Furthermore, Turkey is demanding that NATO back it up in any clash with Russia, apparently still laboring under the illusion that NATO members will come to Turkey’s aid, and enforce a no-fly zone in Idlib Province, against both Syrian and Russian planes. NATO is a mutual defense pact that is supposed to be invoked when a member state is the object of aggression. But in Syria, Turkey moved its forces uninvited into Idlib province, and could well be considered not the victim of aggression, but the aggressor. Further, Erdogan’s many anti-Western statements and acts, including his plans for a pan-Islamic military force to destroy Israel, and his remarks about a possible war “between the crescent and the cross,” leaving no doubt as to which side in that conflict Turkey would be on, have made many NATO countries most unenthusiastic about taking Turkey’s side in a dispute of its own making.
Here is the latest news about the recent attack on Turkish troops by the Syrian army in Idlib, and its possible consequences.
At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an air strike by Syrian government forces in northwestern Idlib province as Turkey vowed “to respond in kind” with attacks on “all” their positions.
The rapid escalation of the conflict on Friday [February 28] also threatened another refugee crisis as media reports cited Turkish officials as saying they “opened the gates” for Syrian refugees to transit unimpeded to Europe.
Despite warnings after the first strike, the Syrian regime unfortunately continued its attacks, even targeting ambulances,” Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday, adding retaliatory attacks killed “309 regime troops”.
Turkish forces destroyed five Syrian regime choppers, 23 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 howitzers, five ammunition trucks, a SA-17, a SA-22 air defense system as well as three ammunition depots,” Akar added.
Russia said Ankara failed to inform it that Turkish troops were fighting alongside rebels in Idlib – comments denied by Turkey.
Turkey has claimed, on the contrary, that the Russians had been fully informed as to where Turkish troops were located. And one may wonder why Russia would have raised the issue at all, unless it had been the Russians who, not having been properly informed by the Turks as to where their own troops were, had in turn misinformed the Syrians that Turkish troops were not in the area that the Syrians planned on bombing and did, in fact, bomb, killing 33 Turkish troops.
“Turkish soldiers who were in the battle formations of terrorist groups came under the fire of Syrian troops,” Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement.
The Russians continue to blame the Turks who, by mimicking “the battle formations of terrorist groups [i.e., Syrian opposition forces]” misled the Syrians into taking them for those “terrorists.”
Russian state television reported Turkish military specialists were using shoulder-fired missiles to try to shoot down Russian and Syrian military aircraft over Idlib.
The deaths were the largest number of fatalities suffered by Turkey in a single day since it first intervened in Syria in 2016. In response, Turkey warned it will attack “all known targets of the Syrian regime.”
Having made such a threat, Turkey will now have a hard time climbing down. It is boxing itself into a corner where it will have to massively retaliate against the Syrians, or lose face, and if the Turks do as much damage as they intend, Syria will call on Russia to retaliate in turn, which would lead to an escalation that cannot possibly benefit Turkey.
“The Assad regime represents a threat to our national security, the region and Europe since it began acting like a criminal network terrorising its own citizens,” Fahrettin Altun, the head of Turkey’s presidential communications department, told Al Jazeera.
The Assad regime does not represent a threat to the national security of Turkey, the region, or Europe militarily. It is a threat, however, because its actions in the civil war have led five million Syrians to flee, and these refugees have strained the resources of Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan2 the countries that have taken in almost all of them. Not a threat to national security, in a military sense, but definitely a threat to the financial and societal well-being of the host countries.
“The regime has taken advantage of the international silence in the face of its crimes for years.”
The Syrian regime has been denounced at the U.N. in many resolutions, for its use of chemical weapons, its deliberate attacks on civilians, and its preventing humanitarian aid from reaching civilian areas. There has been “no international silence” about Assad’s flouting of all the rules of war.
Retaliatory drone and artillery strikes hit Syrian army positions in southern and eastern parts of the province, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighting took place during a Russia-backed Syrian government offensive to seize the war-torn country’s last opposition-held stronghold, which is home to more than three million people.
The ferocious bombing campaign and ground assault have displaced nearly one million people since December, more than half of whom are children. The Syrian offensive has also engulfed many of the 12 military observation posts Turkey has in Idlib.
Rhami Dogan, the governor of Turkey’s Hatay province bordering Syria’s Idlib region, said 32 wounded troops were being treated in hospitals. Turkey has had 54 soldiers killed in Idlib since the beginning of February.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered condolences to Turkey on Friday, saying “such tragedies” can be averted.
President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone on Friday to discuss the crisis and both “expressed serious concern” over the escalation, the Kremlin said.
Russia and Turkey are worried about different “escalations” of the conflict. Russia is worried about massive retaliation, at 200 sites all over Syria, as promised by Turkey against the Assad regime, which Moscow supports. Turkey is worried about the Syrian attacks on its own forces in Idlib, and on the possible involvement of Russia in helping the Syrian forces, aiding them, for example, in the targeting of Turkish troops, or possibly themselves bombing the Turkish positions if the Syrian bombings prove ineffective.
In a statement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed “grave concern” of an escalation of violence and called for an immediate ceasefire. He said “the risk of even greater escalation grows by the hour” without urgent action.3
As fighting raged, the United Nations said it was having “catastrophic” humanitarian consequences, with at least 134 civilians, including 44 children, killed in February, and schools and hospitals destroyed.
Seven children were among 11 people killed when an air strike hit a school in northern Idlib on Tuesday, according to the UN.
Through his spokesman, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement condemning the “indiscriminate” air strikes by the Syrian regime and Russian forces. He urged de-escalation by all parties of “this dangerous situation.”
NATO nations will meet on Friday [February 27] to address the crisis.
Following the air attack, Erdogan held a two-hour emergency security meeting in Ankara that was attended by ministers and military officials.
Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Turkish commanders directed operations in Syria at the Turkish border, state-owned Anadolu news agency said.
Syrian state news agency, SANA, carried a brief report saying Turkey acknowledged its forces were killed “in operations of the Syrian Arab Army against a terrorist organization”, adding Syrian troops were repelling attacks by “terrorist groups backed by Turkey.” Turkey has sent thousands of troops and heavy military hardware into Syria and Erdogan has warned Turkey would launch a full-scale offensive to repel Syrian forces unless they pulled back from Turkish observation posts in the region.
Assad’s regime is monstrous, but in the Idlib battle, Turkey has been the aggressor against Syria. Turkey invaded Syria, not vice-versa. Article 4 of NATO’s founding document allows a member to request help if it feels its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. None of those apply to the situation here, unless the Turks argue that their security is threatened because of the millions of Syrian refugees they now have within their borders, and they worry about possibly a million more to come from Idlib. Those refugees are an expense, no doubt, but let’s remember that Europe has contributed billions of dollars to Turkey for their upkeep. Those refugees do not threaten Turkish security. NATO members are clearly unwilling to take actions, such as establishing a No-Fly Zone over Idlib, that might bring them into direct conflict with Russia. That’s a decision they should stick to.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, a senior Russian lawmaker, said on Friday any full-scale Turkish military operation in Idlib would end badly for Ankara, the Interfax news agency reported.
That is certainly true. The Russians cannot possibly allow the Turks to push the Syrian army back in Idlib; if the Turks look like they are succeeding, or still worse, managing to push the Syrians completely out of Idlib, and even further back toward Damascus, the Russians will have to intervene or be seen as a feeble friend and ineffective ally. The perception of Russia as a superpower has to be maintained, and the Turks will either be defeated by a Russian -backed Syrian army or, more likely, by Russian fighters who have been ordered by Moscow to engage directly with the Turks, of course, insisting that they had been attacked first.
medforth says
Are migrants attacking Greek soldiers with teargas grenades made in Turkey?
Violence is escalating at the EU’s external border between Greece and Turkey following Erdogan’s declaration of the borders to Greece as ‘open’.
According to as yet unconfirmed claims by the Turkish Ministry of the Interior, almost 78,000 migrants are said to have left Turkey for Greece in the last 48 hours, and international organisations say that up to 15,000 mostly Syrian migrants have gathered at the border crossings to Greece. Greece has set up strong police and military units at the border crossings to secure the border and prevent illegal entry. According to local media reports, migrants have now started to attack the Greek security forces, including with the use of teargas grenades. The teargas grenades fired by migrants at the Greek security forces are allegedly made by Turkish companies (photo above). As the official government spokesman Stelios Petsas explained, Greece had been confronted with and resisted an organised illegal mass attempt to violate the border. According to him, 66 invading migrants were arrested. According to reports, Greece is now also reported to have transferred naval vessels to the East Aegean, as migrants – with the support of Turkish authorities – are also trying to land illegally on Greek islands by sea from Turkey.
More:
https://medforth.blog/2020/03/01/are-migrants-attacking-greek-police-officers-with-teargas-grenades-made-in-turkey/
Debra says
Timing is everything
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/02/25/army-first-brigade-and-all-its-gear-headed-europe-major-exercise.html
Frank Anderson says
In my opinion, and based on what I have read, WWI was caused more than anything else by automatic declarations of war triggered by blanket alliances. WWII was triggered by the FAILURE of “alliances” (France and UK failing to stand by Treaty guarantees of Czech borders). From all my reading NATO has never been an offensive alliance. An attack on one is an attack on all. But if the member makes itself a target by attacking, then the alliance commitment should be questioned before getting involved.
Remember, according to published reports the US stores approximately 50 nuclear weapons in Turkey from the Cold War. Turkey demands that they remain in Turkey (no doubt believing the weapons are Turkey’s to control) or it will obtain nuclear weapons from “other sources” (Pakistan/North Korea?). At this time Turkey looks to me as unreliable and burdensome an “ally” as Mussolini was to Germany. How many times in the past 70 years have “essential” bases been lost for one reason or another while life goes on?
BASIC RULE of negotiation-There are some deals which cannot be made. There are some counterparts whose word is meaningless. There are some subjects which cannot be compromised. Violating this rule has caused millions of people to die. There is NO FREE LUNCH.
Ray Jarman says
Frank,
This does remind me of the expression by Tsar Nicholas of Russia who dubbed Turkey (Ottoman Empire) “the sick man of Europe.” Erdogan has been trying to reestablish the old Ottoman Empire that existed by exhorting huge amounts of money and goods from those it dominated. Maybe he expects NATO to fight another Crimean War against Russia but this time I am sure that he will be left standing alone or maybe lying in a grave because there is no chance that Article 5 would ever be invoked, especially when Greece would object. Turkey is in desperate need of Mustafa Kemal like leader to bring Turkey back into the world of reality.
mortimer says
good points … however, the Turks seem to be buying his megalomania … in spite of their depressed economy
Keys says
And a headline today (8:45 AM EST) on Fox: “Turkey downs 2 Syrian warplanes as tensions soar, officials say”.
This is a good time for NATO to expel Turkey. There are plenty of reasons to do so, among them:
Erdogan calling for a Pan-Islamic military force.
Erdogan unleashing thousands of “refugees” onto NATO countries.
Erdogan’s internal tightening of the grip of Islam on Turkey.
Erdogan’s lessened fear of Russia, because he counts on NATO protection.
Erdogan’s aggression in Syria.
Close and move Incirlik Air Base now. Expel Turkey from NATO.
Since the closing of Incirlik has not happened, I am assuming the US government thinks it is not in our interest to do so. But what does the US get ? Protection for NATO’s southern flank from what ? Refugees ?
WithPurpleAbandon says
Erdogan simply wants to serve his own megalomaniac purposes : neo-Ottoman control over the whole region. If he had stopped meddling in this war, this war would be over by now. To him, this is personal. The Russians have a vested interest in keeping their naval base at Tartus, overlooking the Mediterranean Sea. I’d rather see the Russians having control than the bastard Turks.
mortimer says
You are offering us a choice between two unacceptable results.
WithPurpleAbandon says
Which I suppose is one way of looking at it, mortimer. Bu you can’t broker peace deals on good intentions in the ME. I don’t believe in it.
I seem to remember that Erdogan visited some countries in Western Europe a few years ago and he told resident Turks in countries like Belgium, the Netherlands and Germnay during mass rallies that they shouldn’t adhere to the laws of the countries they reside in. In my opinion, this makes Erdogan a bigger scoundrel than Putin could ever be. Plus the fact that he wants to blackmail Europe with mass refugee displacements, which I think is a typical byproduct of his neo-Ottoman aspirations in the ME. So I tend to think that it seems pretty convenient in more than one way that he has kept the war going to serve a dual purpose. So I shouldn’t trust this creep as far as I can throw him. As a citizen of a EU country which is also a member of NATO, I’d rather think about geostrategic realism with regards to the situation in Syria, for one thing :
1) At this point, the Syrian Civil War is everyone’s war. (Turkey, Iran, Russia, the Kurds, UAE, KSA, Qatar,…) The whole entanglement of outside interests makes this whole war never-ending, it seems.
2) It could’ve been stopped with the Russians being involved, and with Turkey finally withdrawing at the same time.
3) Erdogan is two-faced. A NATO member than can’t be trusted in any case.
4) Syria will never become a democracy of any description. After all, it remains an ME country.
5) There used to be stable dictatorships in the ME. (like Libya, Iraq, Syria,…) I suppose that’s really the best anyone can hope for in the ME.
Frank Anderson says
Mortimer, still honored and respected, I think the problem in Germany was the presence of two equally unacceptable choices between Nazis and Communists. I have not been able to identify any viable third choice then and wonder if you can help identify a third more palatable choice now? It seems that people caught in the middle must polarize or get crushed. Not a place for thinking people like us to be caught. Frank
dyhdhshd says
Just curious if Nato nuclear weapons located in Turkey could be triggered on the ground…
Frank Anderson says
D. from what I have read, if the weapons are still there, which is not being “advertised” they have safety devices that are probably not. Search B61 for more general information. These weapons are now in about their 12th generation since the original production. As I recall the Turkey based bombs are about 3rd gen. The US has always taken great care to prevent unintended detonations.
Jerry says
Erdogan is a Jihaddi Islamist who pretends to be an ally of Europe, USA and the West while attempting to restore the Turkish Ottoman Empire as a Chaliphate with him as the wannabe Chaliph, then launch an Islamic Jihad intended to destroy Israel and the Jews, and then continue to destroy Europe, the USA and the Christians.
WithPurpleAbandon says
That’s the long and short of it. You’re quite right.
mortimer says
What? Little Syria is planning an invasion of big TURKEY?
Really? Erdogan is psychiatric. When will Turks send him into early retirement?
Frank Anderson says
honored and respected Mortimer, Islam is psychotic and psychopathic. I am reading at the suggestion of one of our commenters Without Conscience by Robert Hare. That DOES NOT make me an “expert”; but it does give me reason to bring in real experts for the final evaluation. As such for the whole CONSPIRACY, Erdogan is just one among 1500 million believers. Nothing can be done about a religion or a cult. SOMETHING can be done about a conspiracy. frank
mortimer says
A very well-reasoned analysis by Mr. Fitzgerald. Syria has gone through a devastating civil war. Millions were displaced. A new, temporary leadership should be installed while a new constitution is drafted. Otherwise, Syria will never heal from this devastating conflict which was largely the result of Hillary and her Saudi pals.
gravenimage says
After all this, I don’t think Assad is going anywhere. Mortimer.
And who would enforce this?
WithPurpleAbandon says
An astute analysis indeed by Fitzgerald: somebody must win this war on the strength of preserving its own prestige as an ally to another nation. It’s quite clear where this is going. Sooner or later, Russia will have to lay down the law. And Erdogan uses all manner of pretexts to keep the whole shebang going and abuse NATO for his own goals.
jewdog says
E is such a dunce. I had been worried that Russia and Iran had sewn up Syria, but now E is coming to the rescue through his idiotic offensive to establish Islamist and Turkish hegemony in Syria. I look forward to further stalemate as these vultures squabble over the Syrian corpse.
gravenimage says
Syria, Turkey, and Russia, When What’s to Come is Still Unsure (Part 1)
…………………………
I see the “Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact” is unraveling here, as I thought likely it would. Erdogan is more wedded to the remnants of the Islamic State than to his new buddy Putin.
More:
…cited Turkish officials as saying they “opened the gates” for Syrian refugees to transit unimpeded to Europe.
…………………………
And fellow NATO-member Greece is not too keen on having lots of Jihadists dumped on their shores:
“Greece sends 50 naval vessels to guard border after Turkey opens gates to Muslim migrants”
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2020/02/greece-sends-50-naval-vessels-to-guard-border-after-turkey-opens-gates-to-muslim-migrants
Frank Anderson says
GI, we must not allow Schadenfreude to run wild at the prospect of a conflict between Turkey and Russia after Turkey buys air defense missiles from Russia who no doubt has an “off switch” in the system!
“Be careful what you ask for: You may get it!”
“Lie down with dogs and get fleas!”
gravenimage says
Frank, I hope you didn’t think I was gloating over this–I’m not. I just saw it coming.
Frank Anderson says
GI, this time I was being sarcastic. Watching the would be caliph roast in his own juice is a righteous and great pleasure. He is no friend or ally of anyone other than himself. Does that remind you of anyone in, say, 1930-45 history? Imagine him ordering the S-400 batteries to shoot down a Russian airplane. . .and the things don’t fire!
Infidel says
I know that a lot of posters here are suspicious of and hostile to Russia. That notwithstanding, if the differences over Syria results in a direct military confrontation b/w Russia and Turkey, I do hope that the wannabe caliph is taken down a few pegs. I do hope that NATO will not take Turkey’s side just b’cos… Article 5.
I didn’t get the Ribbentrop-Molotov reference here. Who is Ribbentrop and who is Molotov? (Talking about the actors: I do know who Ribbentrop and Molotov were in the context of the Nazi-Soviet treaty to carve up Poland)
Frank Anderson says
Infidel, the R-M treaty was much more than a carving of Poland into oblivion. It defined “spheres of exclusive influence” is several other countries, particularly Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and provided massive quantities of raw materials needed by Germany in exchange for an “assurance” of friendship worthy of any treachery ever practiced in Mohammed’s islam. Please consider reading the section related to this subject in Rise and Fall of the Third Reich as a start to better understanding.
Alarmed Pig Farmer says
… media reports cited Turkish officials as saying they “opened the gates” for Syrian refugees to transit unimpeded to Europe.
It amounts to self-acknowledgement of what they are to threaten the Infidels with… themselves. You want trouble? We’ll send up another million Moslems. Take *that* with Moslems incoming in the glory of Allah, Allahu Akbar.