Israel objects – and has been firm in stating its objections – to an American sale of state-of-the-art F-35 Stealth fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates. And while the UAE has taken the Israeli objections with ill-grace, security cooperation between the two nations is in every other respect, going like gangbusters. Here’s the story of that cooperation.
The Israeli and UAE defense ministers on Tuesday [August 25] held their first publicly-acknowledged phone call since their countries’ recent agreement to normalize ties, officials said, heralding possible security cooperation.
The conversation between Benny Gantz and Mohammed al-Bawardi came amid Israeli dissent at the prospect that the US-brokered deal could grant the Gulf power access to advanced weaponry previously denied to it, such as F-35 stealth fighter jets….
In a tweet, Gantz said they had agreed to “keep an open channel between us.”
He also noted they had talked about potential “security cooperation between the countries, which would strengthen the stability of the region.”
There is already a great deal of “security cooperation” between the UAE and Israel. Gantz means that there will be even more security cooperation. Like what? Like the Ofek 16 electro-optical reconnaissance satellite, launched this past July, that can monitor all of Iran and the Gulf region, and that can enable Israel and now its ally the UAE, as well, to keep close tabs on what the Iranians are doing, such as where they are placing their missile factories and launching pads, what mischief their flotillas in the Gulf are up to, and how their nuclear project is coming along. Israel stands ready to supply the UAE with access to all of this critical information. Israel’s technical superiority in the field of reconnaissance satellites is widely recognized; now those advances will be available to the UAE as well.
The normalization accord, announced on Aug. 13, forges a new axis in confronting Shi’ite Muslim Iran and Sunni Islamist militants in the Middle East, and makes the UAE only the third Arab country to forge ties with Israel in more than 70 years.
The UAE Foreign Minister, Anwar Gargash, predicts that this will be a “warm peace,” as opposed to the “lukewarm peace” that Israel has with Egypt and the “cold peace” it has with Jordan. Unfortunately, the UAE has not really taken seriously the American policy – required by Congress, and observed by every president since 1973 – that requires the U.S. to maintain Israel’s QME (its “qualitative military edge”) so that no other country in the Middle East has access to the most advanced weaponry that is sold to Israel. Right now, that means only one thing: the state-of-the-art F-35 Stealth fighter jet.
But the UAE has argued that the agreement should remove “any hurdle” to advanced US weapons sales, arguing that it eliminates any potential for belligerence between it and Israel.
The QME was not intended to prevent sales of advanced weapons only to states hostile to Israel, but to all Middle Eastern states, however good or bad their relations with Israel at any moment in time happened to be. In Washington it has been well understood that in the Middle East, the most volatile and violent part of the world, Israel should not be expected to risk its security by allowing the sale of America’s most advanced weapons to a state or states in the Middle East that, while friendly now, might be hostile in the future. In Israel they remember keenly how, under the Shah, Iran was an ally of Israel, well-supplied with advanced American weapons. But when the Shah fell, the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini replaced him – a regime implacably dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state. Turkey, too, was for decades an ally of Israel, but ever since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power, the country has become steadily more hostile to Israel; Erdogan has even published a proposal for a pan-Islamic army that would be strong enough to destroy the Jewish state. Meanwhile, the Turkish army still has advanced weaponry bought from the Americans, which Israeli generals now must include in their calculations about future conflicts.
Seeking to allay Israeli security concerns, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reassured Israel on Monday that it would retain a military advantage in the region under any future arms deals with the UAE.
Was Pompeo attempting to assure the Israelis that there would be no sale of F-35s to the UAE, or was he hinting at something else — that, if that F-35 sale went through, the Americans had something else up their sleeve, a new weapon, not necessarily a plane, that would restore that temporarily lost QME, and would be made available in the Middle East only to Israel?
An Israeli defense official said that while Israel was firm in opposing any prospective US sale of the F-35 to the UAE, the Netanyahu government was “entirely immersed” on the question of expanding criteria for Israeli defense exports to the Gulf power.
Israel is not opposed to the sale of advanced weaponry to the UAE. It is “expanding criteria for its defense exports” – that is, making ever more of its own weapons available for sale to the UAE. It has not raised any objections to American sales of weapons — drones, anti-missile defenses, planes, cyberwarfare program — save in the unique case of the F-35.
According to defense industry sources, Israel has sold the UAE security products in the cyber and surveillance realm. A study by the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab has linked spyware technologies produced by Israel‘s NSO Group to political surveillance in the UAE.
In the early 2000s, Israel was in talks to sell the UAE drones, according to a US official who was involved in the negotiations — but called off the deal after the 2010 death in Dubai of an arms dealer with the Islamist group Hamas, which Emirati authorities blamed on a Mossad hit team.
Now that Israel and the UAE are on good terms, surely the UAE will be buying those advanced drones, in the manufacture of which Israel is a world leader. It might also buy the Iron Dome anti-missile system, or the “breakthrough technology” for lasers that Israel started just this year to use to shoot down incoming missiles and drones. All of that is likely to be made available to the UAE if only it gives up its insensate demand for the F-35 planes, the sale of which for Israel – as the UAE pretends not to know — crosses a red line.
But what is potentially most worrisome about the sale of F-35s to the UAE is its effect on Egypt. No one has mentioned this, but why wouldn’t Egypt eventually follow suit, and ask the Americans to sell it “just a few” F-35s, to be paid for by the Gulf Arabs, perhaps even by the UAE? Why should anyone object? After all, General el-Sisi can point out, Egypt was the first country to “make peace with Israel.” It has been collaborating with Israel in fighting Jihadis – remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic state – in the Sinai. What’s the problem? And Israel would then be put in the awkward position of showing its lack of trust in Egypt – a country which fought five wars with Israel, in 1948-1949, 1956 (the Sinai Campaign), 1967, 1967-1970 (the War of Attrition), and 1973 — by trying to stop such a sale. If the sale of F-35s to the UAE were to go through, then a similar demand from Egypt is hardly unthinkable.
Of course, this possible bonanza of Israeli arms sales to the Emirates could turn to bust if the UAE insists it simply must have those American F-35s, and Netanyahu rallies Congress to stop the sale, and the UAE then decides, as it certainly could in a fit of pique, that it’s now in a mood of “let’s-call-the-whole-thing-off.” And that would be a terrible mistake.
Steven says
I firmly believe NO, NO Muslim/Arab Nation should have the F-35. Case in point is Turkey which is a member of NATO and Erdogan wants to rebuild the Ottoman Empire. What does the UAE want to do next?
But if Biden wins (which I hope to God he does not) the F-35 will be sold to Muslims IF Biden doesn’t cancel the program. After all he and his socialist/communist associates want to “kill” the DOD Budget and redirect it elsewhere.
owensgate says
Of course this has been well thought out by all. Selling a few F-35 ver. 1.0’s to the UAE will keep anything Iran can put in the air at bay, and I’m sure Israel will always have two versions newer, with a lot of “Special Modifications”, Millennial Falcon style, than will keep the UAE on the ground if necessary.
Quazgaa says
A plane is only as good as its pilot.
I remember reading about American observations on Saudi pilots, which determined that, due to inbreeding, said Saudi pilots lack proper peripheral vision, this seriously impeding their functioning as fighter pilots.
I suspect the F35 plane itself is smarter than any arab pilot that might fly it.
Daniel Triplett says
I’ve observed many Arab pilots getting trained, having been through it myself. All the Arab pilot trainees are chosen through royal connections. They’re either princes or well connected sons of close friends of the king. Talent and aptitude have nothing to do with it.
USAF Undergraduate Pilot Training is hard, even for talented students. Most are eliminated. American pilot trainees must perform and progress with the syllabus on time within a pre-defined fixed number of hours. No one gets special treatment or extra time. The Arab trainees, however, are funded by their governments, and they get lots of extra time and attention. The standards are unofficially different. They don’t need to be talented superstars; they just need to meet the minimum level of safety.
James Lincoln says
Daniel Triplett says,
“USAF Undergraduate Pilot Training is hard, even for talented students. Most are eliminated.”
Absolutely 100% true. Same thing with USN student naval aviator programs. I somehow got through the syllabus in the T-34C Turbomentor at Naval Air Station Whiting Field, and it was one of the most challenging things I have ever done. Took every brain cell that I had.
The US Navy now uses the T-6 Texan II for primary flight training.
Daniel, if I remember correctly, you have taken your USAF flight training way beyond primary, into jet aircraft, and later for the airlines. I know the type, you are the “best of the best” – and have my highest respect…
Daniel Triplett says
I salute you James. I knew you were a doctor, but didn’t realize you went through the T-34 program too. That’s awesome — a doctor and a pilot. Not many guys can say that. I don’t the the USAF does that with their Flight Surgeons. Maybe they should; it only makes sense that such intimacy with flying would be useful for Flight Surgeons.
The T-6 seems like a great airplane to replace the T-34 and T-37. I’ve read that it well outperforms both.
I graduated from UPT at Columbus AFB in the T-37 and T-38 back in 1996. I showed up already with 3500 hours and ATP and CFI Certificates, which gave me a huge advantage and finish first, but it was still challenging and took 100% of my soul and focus to get through it. I can’t image showing up with zero time like 5 out of the 30 of us did. Those guys were catatonic with fear and anxiety with their hair on fire for every minute of it. 4 were eliminated early, and the other guy finished at the bottom. 15 out of 30 never graduated.
But my gosh, that was the funnest year of my life. I’d love to go back and do it over again. The military years in general were the best. I separated years ago to go to the airlines, which is 5 times the money, with 20% of the work, and I love it, but military service to America is uniquely rewarding in ways civilian endeavors can’t match. I’m sure you know what I mean. Most vets do.
gravenimage says
Thanks for those accounts, Daniel and James.
Geof says
There is another aspect to muslum weakness . Due to the muslum idea that women are barely human and are repressed from manifesting properly basically all muslums come from broken homes . While the jews come from homes where the women are powerful and kids benifit from having a strong mother in their family
gravenimage says
Israel, the UAE, and Those Worrisome F-35s
………………
Israel is right to be concerned.
infidel says
Selling high-tec weaponry to Muslim nation (howmuch ever friendly they are today with U) is like writing Ur own future death sentence..
gravenimage says
+1
Gourdhead says
Our government is so stupid to allow sales of this aircraft to any middle eastern (muzslime) country other than Israel.
OLD GUY says
Once again we make a bad decision in the Middle East. Sale of high tech. military aircraft to islamic/muslim countries always comes back to bite you. If these aircraft are the reason that UAE is interested in this deal beware.