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An October Surprise?

Oct 5, 2020 10:00 am By Hugh Fitzgerald 43 Comments

Here’s an idea for an October Surprise that could transform the political landscape.

It has nothing to do with the announcement of a coronavirus vaccine. Nor with Black Lives Matter. Nor with defunding the police. Nor with once-in-a-century wildfires and hurricanes that, in their intensity, happened to be just like those wildfires and hurricanes we’ve endured for three – or is it four? — of the last five years. Nor is it about confirming Amy Coney Barrett as the replacement for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

It has to do, rather, with that unfolding drama in the Middle East, where the trailblazing United Arab Emirates decided to both recognize, and normalize relations with, Israel, and Bahrain soon followed suit. Now the Internet is full of prognostications as to which Arab or Muslim state might be next. Oman? Sudan? Comoros? Chad? Djibouti? Mauritania? Morocco? Kuwait? Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs. Place your bets.

Eight states so far have been mentioned as candidates and given a thumbs up here and a pollice verso there. This one possibly worth the wait, says Pundit X, while that one has been weighed and found wanting, says Pundit Y. To have a memorable effect, to make it truly an October surprise, we need a definite dark horse, a country that has recently renewed its pledge to observe the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which means no recognition, much less normalization, of relations with Israel, until the Jewish state has been squeezed back within the 1949 armistice lines, and a Palestinian state established. That country, of course, is Saudi Arabia.

King Salman has been very clear that for now he is sticking with that 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. His son and heir apparent, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has given enough hints that he has other ideas. He has said that Israelis have the “right to live peacefully on their own land” which, in Saudi terms, is earth-shattering. There are signs that the Crown Prince is preparing the ground for recognition of Israel.

One such sign is a sermon delivered by Abdul Rahman Ibn Abdul Aziz al-Sudais, the imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca. Al-Sudais has hitherto been well-known for weeping dozens of times while praying for Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque and for denouncing the Jews. Here’s a sample of his antisemitic invective:

“Read the history and you will know that yesterday’s Jews were bad predecessors and today’s Jews are worse successors. They are killers of prophets and the scum of the earth. God hurled his curses and indignation on them and made them monkeys and pigs and worshippers [sic] of tyrants. These are the Jews, a continuous lineage of meanness, cunning, obstinacy, tyranny, evil, and corruption.…May God’s curses follow them until the Day of Judgement.…Thus, they deserve the curse of God, His angels, and all people.” Al-Sudais has prayed to God to “terminate” the Jews and has claimed, in a classic example of projection, given that Al-Aqsa was built on top of the Temple Mount, the holiest site in Judaism, that the Israelis aspire to tear down the al-Aqsa mosque and build their temple upon its ruins.

Yet this same imam gave a sermon on September 5 calling for religious tolerance, especially for Jews. He mentioned how Muhammad had been so good to a Jewish neighbor that the man converted to Islam. This was no doubt a command performance – that is, commanded by the Crown Prince, as a way of preparing the Saudi public, for some time in the future, when the Saudis will themselves “normalize” relations with Israel. Is it conceivable that the Crown Prince did not keep King Salman informed about this? Not very likely. Perhaps the King is not as completely opposed to normalization as he allows himself to show.

Another sign of change in Saudi views is that there was no denunciation by the Saudis of the UAE’s move. Nor was anything was done to stop Bahrain from following suit. The Emir of Bahrain relies on the Saudis for security; he would not have recognized Israel without first getting permission from Riyadh. That permission is one sign of approval. And it likely would have had to come from the very top. Another such sign of a lessening of hostility toward Israel is the permission that Saudi Arabia immediately granted for Israel to use its airspace for flights to and from the UAE. Again, this is the kind of thing that the Crown Prince would have informed the King about, and who apparently did not object.

Why would King Salman agree to recognize and normalize relations with Israel in October, after he had scarcely a month before reaffirmed his commitment to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative? One reason is not to lose face. If more Arab states – in spite of the Saudi stance – nonetheless normalize relations, those swelling numbers would suggest that Saudi Arabia, the Guardian of the Two Holy Sanctuaries, has lost some of its previous authority. The King may be persuaded that it is wiser to anticipate which way the political current is flowing, and not try to stand athwart it, but rather to go with the flow.

A second reason for the King to agree to this would be his recognition that after his death, the Crown Prince – who would then be King Mohammed bin Salman — is almost certain to normalize relations with Israel. If the King continues to insist now on avoiding such a move, then after his death his son Muhammad may be open to attack for “betraying” King Salman’s policy. The Crown Prince has already made serious enemies, because of the Saudi royals he kept locked up in 2018 for months — and some, like Turki bin Abdullah, for over a year — in a luxury hotel, the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton, until they disgorged some of what the Crown Prince thought were their ill-gotten gains. If King Salman wants to smooth his son’s ascension and assure his reign, he might be willing to demonstrate his support by now agreeing, however reluctantly, to the normalization policy.

A third reason for the Saudis to announce their change in policy is out of gratitude to the Trump Administration, which has stood by the Saudis despite Congressional anger over both the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and the civilian deaths caused by Saudi bombing in Yemen. Such an announcement, the Saudis know, should help Trump on November 3. If he wins, partly as a result of running as a “Middle East Peacemaker” who “managed to persuade even the Saudis,” he’ll know whom to thank.

That’s my candidate for the October Surprise. What’s yours?

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Filed Under: Featured, Hugh Fitzgerald, Israel, Saudi Arabia Tagged With: King Salman, Mohammed bin Salman


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Comments

  1. mortimer says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 10:08 am

    Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “has said that Israelis have the “right to live peacefully on their own land” which, in Saudi terms, is earth-shattering.”

    Totally agreement with Mr.Fitzgerald.

    Reply
    • juleonly says

      Oct 6, 2020 at 4:21 am

      Maybe did he forget the extreme danger to Saudi/Gulf from Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Muslim Bros everywhere, Qatar, Hamas etc. but the strength US, Israel might have as an alliance (even if temporary as most deals of Islam are) important reasons? I think this is the biggest reason and the Prince wants to shore up as much help as possible for what is brewing. Its a crazy world where you can’t be naive or overly paranoid & walk a fine line.

      Reply
      • gravenimage says

        Oct 6, 2020 at 4:15 pm

        Agreed, jule. I think Iran is the main reason that some in the Sunni world are allowing a brief Hudna on killing Jews.

        Reply
    • Grace says

      Oct 6, 2020 at 7:15 am

      From your mouth to God’sears. Peace in the middle east! A time to grow, a time to harvest.

      Reply
  2. owensgate says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 10:26 am

    I do believe Riyadh is waking up to what side of the Iranian bread is buttered on. Their only hope is at least a tacit agreement with Israel for their survival. With a big side order of a shared pipeline to Europe for Saudi oil.

    Reply
  3. Cornelius says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 11:04 am

    >The Crown Prince has already made serious enemies, because of the Saudi royals he kept locked up in 2018 for months — and some, like Turki bin Abdullah, for over a year — in a luxury hotel, the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton, until they disgorged some of what the Crown Prince thought were their ill-gotten gains.

    Hugh is exhibiting his literary deftness here….as if corruption hasn’t been a staple of doing business in Saudi Arabia for generations. The Crown Prince’s problem was not that the gains were “ill gotten”….he was just employing an old fashioned shake-down….both to accrue more billions for himself (and by this, I mean the enlargement of a slush fund to utilize in the affairs of state-craft)….and also to send a message to the Saudi elite that he is the unquestioned boss of the regime, his father’s title notwithstanding. The Crown Prince is not just unscrupulous, he is very ambitious and – as Khassoggi learned a little too late – quite dangerous. He might even become dangerous to the West someday.

    That said, if he’s on board for the “peace process”, even just temporarily to help Trump, it’s a good thing. Whether or not it will save Trump’s increasingly dire electoral chances is another story.

    Reply
    • gravenimage says

      Oct 6, 2020 at 4:16 pm

      +1

      Reply
  4. eddie says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 11:06 am

    An October surprise?

    Donald Trump supporters getting excited about the November election:

    They’re like the overly optimistic parents of the fat kid on school sports day.

    Reply
    • Billy Chickens says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 11:40 am

      Biden supporters are like the overly optimistic Hillary supporters on election night 4 years ago.

      Reply
      • eddie says

        Oct 5, 2020 at 1:04 pm

        Coronavirus latest:

        Kayleigh McEnany is the latest to go down after hanging around President Super-spreader.

        Vote Biden, and stay safe.

        Reply
        • gfmucci says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 1:55 pm

          Safe and secure in your enclosure is the Democrat wish for America, enforced by a bloated, oppressive government full of technocrats full of themselves. It stands to reason that people who want government to maintain their existence prefer to not venture forth and expend any energy or take any risk. That is the difference between Biden fans and Trump fans.

        • Terry Gain says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 6:10 pm

          Eddie

          President Trump works harder while in the hospital than Biden does out of the hospital. The polls oversample Democrats and do not measure enthusiasm.The election is an intelligence test and it is a no brainer. Biden couldn’t create a good economy even if he was not suffering from dementia President Trump’s landslide victory will be so large that even the Democrats massive vote fraud won’t save them.

        • Eli says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 6:31 pm

          Safe as the Socialist Democrat cities terrorized by the Marxist BLM and praised by Kamala Harris as a brilliant game plan, the end justifies the means? Safe as now Communist dominated Venezuela, which is dictated by Nicolas Maduro. Co-founders, of the Marxist BLM, Patrisse Cullor, Alicia Garza, and Opal Tometi, boast, they are trained Marxist organizers, and Tometi endorsed the Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro. If Biden gets in, the riots will continue as they did in Venezuela. Patrisse said they are trained in Marxist, (Socialist/Communist) ideology. This ideology has cost Americans billions, with deaths and lives in dispair. So much for Biden’s dreamland. Wiser to stand for America with President Trump and keep America, a free enterprise. I already lost family in the Communist Regime, which is the same as Hitler domination. Why do you think refugees flee to America. Now they want to turn it into the places they left.

        • maria says

          Oct 6, 2020 at 4:59 am

          no Biden or any other democRats as the President of the great country USA
          President Trump will win over these enemies of humanity

        • gravenimage says

          Oct 6, 2020 at 4:18 pm

          eddie certainly doesn’t want anyone to stay safe from the threat of Islamic terrorism.

    • Wellington says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 12:52 pm

      Again, eddie, you add so much mature insight, often accompanied with a stunning amount of knowledge, to the matter at hand. What a loss it would be if you ceased posting at JW.

      Reply
      • eddie says

        Oct 5, 2020 at 1:26 pm

        Many thanks for reading and enjoying all of my posts:

        Love to my supporters.

        Reply
        • Terry Gain says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 6:12 pm

          Eddie

          Why don’t you just go upstairs and tell your mom to her face that you love her?

        • gravenimage says

          Oct 6, 2020 at 4:19 pm

          What “supporters” does eddie have here, save for the perhaps even more appalling “Rod”?

  5. Nicola says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 11:21 am

    Since Mohammed said : ” When you don’t have the upper hand in a war , sign all the peace treaties BUT as soon as you have the upper hand position back , tear all doocuments and go for djihad .” , what is the worth of all those treaties with such peoples? I remember Arafat after he received Nobel ‘ s Peace Prize . In the following days he was killing israelites children (!!!).

    Reply
    • gravenimage says

      Oct 6, 2020 at 4:20 pm

      Yes–a serious concern.

      Reply
  6. jess perry says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 11:26 am

    your forgetting in Islam, war is deceit . Lie til you can enslave, convert or kill the non believer.

    Reply
  7. THX 1138 says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    Highly enjoyable and enlightening article on how the gangster Mafia ruling Saudi Arabia operates.

    Mr. Fitzgerald can you do the same with the American ruling Mafia, our American Uniparty, the RINOs and the Dems —- The American Swamp?

    Reply
  8. Ray Jarman says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 12:32 pm

    As mentioned, Iran is part of the reason for the Saudis to re-think their relationship with Israel. I, however, believe that the king is worried that a Biden/Harris election would shift the balance of power in the entire Middle East. Were a Biden/Harris (Harris being an anti-Semite and ardent BDS supporter) to inhabit the White House, the sanctions placed on Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah would be completely removed and Iran would be able to further its goal of a nuclear force. Should the Saudis sign a peace treaty with Israel before the election, it would show the world that President Trump is the only hope that the entire Middle East has to avoid a devastating nuclear calamity.

    Reply
    • Wellington says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 12:57 pm

      Well reasoned, Ray. Since you can always count on Biden to do the wrong thing (stunning how consistent he is about this), any diplomatic initiative that would further help Trump get re-elected is at least short term a positive.

      Reply
    • Rarely says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 2:20 pm

      RJ. It’s a bit of a stretch to call Harris an anti-Semite while her husband is Jewish but why consider that?

      Reply
      • Terry Gain says

        Oct 5, 2020 at 6:16 pm

        Anti-semite may not be accurate, but Harris is clearly anti-Israel.

        Reply
        • James Lincoln says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 8:43 pm

          Yes, Terry – she’s *definitely* anti-Israel.

          And I sure hope you’re right about a President Trump landslide victory!

        • gravenimage says

          Oct 6, 2020 at 4:30 pm

          True, Terry and James:

          “Why these Democratic presidential hopefuls voted no on an anti-BDS bill”

          https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-these-democratic-presidential-hopefuls-voted-no-on-an-anti-bds-bill/

  9. Rarely says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    From your mouth to G’d’s ear.

    Reply
  10. Walter Sieruk says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 1:23 pm

    This maim top article make mention of imam Abul Rahman of the grand mosque of Mecca who viciously denounced the Jewish people and called them “monkeys and pigs” [meaning “apes and swine” ]

    That imam didn’t just make up those derogatory terms for the Jews .he obtained those names for them from the Qu ‘ran.

    For such awful vicious spiteful Muslim hate and against the Jewish people which resulted is ,indeed, very wicked.

    It come from Islam with its Qu ‘ran instructs in violence and killing for the cause of Islam. As found in, for example, 4: 89. 5:33. 9:5,111,123. 47:4. In other words the Koran inspires and causes such hideous violence. Furthermore, another role the Qu ‘ran has in such deadly Islamic terror attacks in the Jewish nation of Israel is that the Koran contains many negative about the Jewish people. The reason that the Koran reads as it does have much to do with the history of the founder and prophet of Islam, who is Muhammad. This is for a specific time period of his life Muhammad lived among many Jewish people and he liked them at first.

    Later when they would not accept his claim of being of prophet, Muhammad then took is dislike to them that then turned into bitterness and even hate for them. So in the hate and bitterness he spoke many derogatory things about the as even referring to them as “apes and swine.” Such word of bitterness and hate, along with other thing he said, where written down on things and then later after his death those words were together together and then eventually, in time went in the composition of the Qu ‘ran . Therefore, that why the Qu ran reads and in does about the Jewish people, as in calling them descendants of “apes and swine.” As seen in the Koran in 2:65; 7:166.; 5:60.

    Furthermore, as a Christian I can keyboard that there is a chance the Muhammad actually might had been a prophet but the important thing to understand is that Muhammad was NOT a prophet send by God. Instead, Muhammad was a deceptive, lying false prophet send by Satan to lead many people astray and even and straight into hell. Jesus, in fact, had predicted and warned of the coming of such men as Muhammad. For Jesus taught “Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” Matthew 7:15. In addition, the Bible further warns that “many false prophets are gone out into the world.” First John 4:1. [K.J.V.]

    Reply
    • Ray Jarman says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 2:00 pm

      +1

      Perfectly stated. The Lord Jesus never uttered one word of hatred towards any man.

      Reply
      • Rarely says

        Oct 5, 2020 at 2:22 pm

        At least not on tape.

        Reply
    • Rarely says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 2:25 pm

      Walter. Don’t get all excited about Satan or the Devil since IF the Devil existed it (he, she) could only have the amount of power G’d would allow it (he, she) to have.

      Reply
      • Eli says

        Oct 5, 2020 at 6:39 pm

        I think we have seen enough evil in people now and throughout history to verify, the Devil is real. People have evidence of demonic activity within themselves through violent acts and found speech. There have been many articles written regarding people obsessed with evil spirits, and transformed by the Grace of God through prayer and intervention. Missionaries have shared stories, too.

        Reply
        • Rarely says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 7:42 pm

          If G’d is all-powerful where would the Devil (Satan) get its (his, her) power?
          If G’d is all-powerful He/She/It could remove whatever power Satan had in a split second.
          You can’t have it both ways.

        • James Lincoln says

          Oct 5, 2020 at 8:48 pm

          Rarely,

          Satan, the devil, etc., only has the *power* we *give* him…

    • Eli says

      Oct 5, 2020 at 6:34 pm

      The Jews surely know better then to close their eyes to craftiness. Just wiser not to turn your back on your enemy. Islamists teach whatever it takes to conquor for Islam.

      Reply
  11. gfmucci says

    Oct 5, 2020 at 1:48 pm

    The October “no surprise” is that this is all expedient lip service.

    Reply
  12. OLD GUY says

    Oct 6, 2020 at 11:12 am

    I’ll believe this when it actually happens.

    Reply
  13. gravenimage says

    Oct 6, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    An October Surprise?
    ……………..

    What’s happening now in the Middle East is certainly better than usual–and yes, a great deal of this is due to the actions of President Trump, to his credit.

    I still think, sadly, that Israel had better remain cautious.

    Reply
    • underbed cat says

      Oct 7, 2020 at 10:15 am

      gravenimage I agree caution.

      Reply
  14. underbed cat says

    Oct 7, 2020 at 10:12 am

    I do not trust the Saudi Prince……peace with Israel…….he suddenly kicked the Quranic verses from his mind? “Allah is the greatest decieve” is no longer a hint on their strategies? I would be happy to be proven wrong but, the then I would have to ignore sharia law. I would like to see peace or in my mind safety forIsrael, but if they share their technology it might be the Prince has a mission. I don’t understand how a country that for years had public execution square, now tucked away inside buildings, can be trusted. The tie that binds in the M.E. ( irregardless of the wars of shia and sunni) has always been to dominate with Islam…..what am I missing?

    Reply

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