In January 2013, Barack Obama said: “We achieved our central goal — or have come very close to achieving our central goal, which is to de-capacitate al-Qaeda, to dismantle them, to make sure that they can’t attack us again.” He said this, by the way, in the context of the war in Afghanistan, which so very many politicians want us to continue.
In any case, these wildly wrong analyses, nearly eight years apart, demonstrate the persistent cluelessness and willful ignorance of the counterterrorism establishment.
“Al-Qaida ‘On the Ropes’ After 2 Decades of War,” by Jeff Seldin, VOA, November 17, 2020:
WASHINGTON – Key U.S. officials are not backing down from their assessment that core al-Qaida, while still a threat, is in decline, brushing aside intelligence suggesting the terror organization remains entrenched in Afghanistan and may be growing stronger.
For months, tensions have been growing between the United States and its allies over the status of al-Qaida, with some counterterrorism officials arguing Washington is in danger of underestimating the threat posed by the terror group.
But the State Department’s top counterterrorism official on Tuesday said al-Qaida has been significantly degraded as a result of U.S. efforts.
“I think al-Qaida’s on the ropes, no doubt,” Counterterrorism Coordinator Ambassador Nathan Sales told the virtual Global Security Forum in a pre-recorded interview.
“We have decimated their senior leadership cadre over the past 20 years leaving core al-Qaida leadership really a remnant of its former self,” he said.
Sales’ comments come just a day after U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien similarly downplayed al-Qaida core’s capacity to do harm.
“Al-Qaida’s been incapable of directing a complex, large-scale attack against the U.S. because of the pressure that we’ve kept on them,” he said. “And there’s more to come.” …