The head of Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in Iran, almost certainly by members of the Mossad, on November 27. The Iranians have threatened to come down “like lightning” on the perpetrators. A report on the killing, and Iranian threats of revenge, is here: “Iran vows to avenge nuclear mastermind assassinated near Tehran,” bIsrael Hayom, November 27, 2020:
Dean Shmuel Elmas and Daniel Siryoti,According to Iranian media reports, Fakhrizadeh, 59, was accompanied by his bodyguard when they were ambushed on a highway. The assailants reportedly used explosives to force his car to stop, then shot him. He died in a nearby hospital shortly thereafter. The bodyguard was wounded in the attack but no details were given on his condition.
The nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated today [Friday] by terrorists,” the Iranian Defense Ministry said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the medical team did not succeed in reviving him and … this scientist achieved the high status of martyrdom.”
Hossein Dehgan, the military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel for the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and vowed to retaliate for the killing.
“In the last days of their gambling ally’s political life [the Trump administration], the Zionists seek to intensify and increase pressure on Iran to wage a full-blown war,” Dehghan wrote, appearing to refer to Trump’s last days in office. “We will descend like lightning on the killers of this oppressed martyr and we will make them regret their actions!”
Iran will “descend like lightning” on Fakhrizadeh’s killers? Not likely. Rather, the response, if there is one, is going to be like what happened after the Americans killed Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force from 1998 to 2020, at the Baghdad Airport this past January. Iran made threats about a terrific retaliation that would be forthcoming. President Rouhani mentioned in a speech that “The Americans cut off the hand of our dear Soleimani,” and as revenge they, the Iranians, would cut off the legs of the Americans and toss them out of neighboring countries.
The result, however, was far from being what Rouhani had threatened. The Iranians shot a few missiles at two Iraqi airbases at Ain al-Asad and Erbil, which the Americans were known to use; though there were many wounded, no Americans were killed as a result of the strikes, and there was very little damage to the sites. And that was the end of it: no cutting off the legs of the Americans, no vast retaliation for the death of Qassem Soleimani.
On August 7, the #2 leader of Al-Qaeda, Abu Abdullah al-Masri, who had been living, and plotting, in Iran, was assassinated by what everyone believes were agents of Mossad. The Israelis were said to have been asked by the Americans to carry out the killing. The Iranians again promised a harsh revenge, as they had after the killing of Soleimani, this time against not America but Israel. Yet no such attacks by Iran on Israel were forthcoming. Iran no doubt realized that any attack would be met with a crushing response by Israel, and it was not prepared to take that risk.
After the killing of Iran’s nuclear mastermind, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on November 27, Iran pointed again at Israel:
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif alleged the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh bore “serious indications” of an Israeli role, but did not elaborate.
Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today. This cowardice – with serious indications of Israeli role – shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators….
Iranian Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri said his country will “exact a devastating revenge” over the incident, Channel 12 News reported.
The New York Times claimed that three officials had confirmed that Israel – long suspected of killing several Iranian nuclear scientists a decade ago – was behind Fakhrizadeh’s elimination as well….
Everyone knows that Mossad in the past has assassinated four of Iran’s top nuclear scientists, as well as unnamed others involved in some aspect of the country’s nuclear program.
Certainly Iran does not want to give President Trump any excuse to attack Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Natanz. A response by Iran to the Fakhrizadeh assassination, targeting Israel, would likely lead to a massive response by Israel and possibly an attack by the Trump administration on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including those underground at Natanz that can be reached only by American bunker busters (MOPs, or Massive Ordnance Penetrators). For now, it makes more sense for Iran to wait out the end of the Trump administration, on the assumption that Biden is so eager to return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that his administration will not attack Iran itself, and will try to persuade Israel to mitigate its response to any Iranian attack launched as revenge for Fakhrizadeh’s killing — that Iran might unleash after January 20, 2021, when Trump is gone.
He [Amos Yadlin] further advised Israeli officials to remain mum on the issue. “When Iran is roused but faces [a retaliation] dilemma and the Pentagon opts to keep quiet, Israeli officials should remember – silence is golden,” Yadlin said.
Fakhrizadeh has been described by Western and Israeli intelligence services as the leader of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which was halted in 2003 – the same program Israel and the United States have accused Iran of trying to restore in secret….
While Iran had always described Fakhrizadeh as a university physics professor, he was a member of the Revolutionary Guards and had been seen in pictures in meetings attended by Khamenei – a sign of his political power.
Fakhrizadeh had been sanctioned by the UN Security Council and the US for his work on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, known as AMAD.
In recent years, US sanctions lists name him as heading Iran’s Organization for Defensive Innovation and Research. The State Department described that organization last year as working on “dual-use research and development activities, of which aspects are potentially useful for nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons delivery systems.”
Clearly Fakhrizadeh was continuing work on Iran’s nuclear program, right up until his killing on November 27. He did not stop work in 2003 on AMAD, the nuclear-weapons program that Iran had claimed it had ended in that year. Iran continued to work on its nuclear program right through until his death, both during the period of the nuclear deal, when it supposedly had stopped such work, and since 2018, when the U.S. pulled out of that deal. Iran continued to insist that its nuclear program had always been entirely for peaceful purposes. The Israelis offered mountains of evidence that showed otherwise, from the more than 100,000 documents – Iran’s entire nuclear archive – that their agents managed to locate and smuggle out of Iran in 2018.
Wishing to win over the Biden Administration, it is possible that Iran will after January 20 announce that while it has all the evidence it needs to prove that Israel was behind the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and would be well justified in retaliating for the “murder of our esteemed Professor Fakhrizadeh,” Iran instead “has chosen not to do so as a sign of our moderation and desire to fashion a durable peace with the new administration in Washington.” Iran may well be given credit by the Biden administration for this “peace overture,” given some of those who are now back in the saddle in Washington, including former Secretary of State John Kerry, our Cabinet-level climate czar, who has his personal ties – they got along swimmingly – to Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the man who snookered John Forbes Kerry over the Iran deal.
Phil Copson says
“… Mohammad Bagheri said his country will “exact a devastating revenge” over the incident…”
——————————————————————————————————————–
“If you don’t allow us to develop nuclear weapons with which to destroy you – we will destroy you.”
Hard to get much traction with a threat like that….
gravenimage says
Spot on, Phil.
SemiDave says
Relax, oh troglodyte mullahs!
If sleepy, sleazy, blue-eyes gone brown-eyes, sniffy, Joe gains power in the US, he’ll give you a new one…he didn’t bring Kerry back into cabinet for nothing.
The Ayatollahs ignore that a very large portion of the Iranian population would see them gone and become a mere reminder of a horrible part of Persian history.
If it was Mossad and not CIA operatives trying to start ANOTHER war in the middle east…
underbed cat says
I have to admit, it frightened me, he would have to be an insider to get that close. How many others are there to fill his radioactive shoes.? I would think even Iranians know the dangers. Painting hearts or fists on plywood does no good to stop an attack, that preceded the need for plywood or change results of one neither does fantasy. JB is in fantasy that he promoted.
somehistory says
brennan…one of the traitor moslims in ‘o’s fake admin, says the killing was “criminal.”
gravenimage says
There have been a lot of tools wringing their hands over this.
underbed cat says
Killing without right is always the claim…….but when it comes to Islamic jihad it is their Al%%$ given right to fight or end the lives of people who do not convert, since they are told they are the best of all people ….anyone else no so much. Brennen may or may not admit it but he centainly was not fond of relaying this important reality to protect the lives of people who lived with open borders who could never concieve of an national security that allowed the fantsy information of peacefulness and omitted the dangers. In my opinion. Appeasing the lion works only so long until they start ascending into power for control and a population has grown into a formidable power. Europe is the example as the violence claimed delusional right causes chaos. So is it racist to try to save your life? Or a betrayal? If you have not heard of the problem.. and are new to the facts..they have also tried to silence the facts….as they did in Europe where information was forbidden and claimed racist.
underbed cat says
International law seems to have cracks in it or maybe the law was aborrgated to suit a problem. How could anyone get so close to him and escape? Maybe there is more to this incident that Iran will always use to blame elsewhere.
ElderlyZionist says
“The Iranians shot a few missiles at two Iraqi airbases at Ain al-Asad and Erbil, which the Americans were known to use; no Americans were killed as a result of the strikes, and there was very little damage to the sites. And that was the end of it…”
You left out the part where the Iranians, in a spasm of panicked incompetence, shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing 176 passengers and crew. I wouldn’t fly into or out of Tehran International Airport for a while. Not that I would have anyway.
JewishAmericanPatriot says
Isn’t the Iranian threat against Israel all about their regime’s longing for the return of their 12th Imam? I have read several articles that suggested that the twelver Shiites believe that the 12th Imam (Mahdi) is living in a state of “occultation” (kind of like suspended animation) since he supposedly disappeared in 873 AD at age 5, and is currently hidden in a well somewhere inside Iran. And that by attacking Israel with a nuclear bomb, Iran will receive a retaliatory strike and this will create a state of “world wide chaos”. And that this chaos would be the “trigger event” to hasten the Mahdi’s desire to return to the world and raise the banner of Shiite Islam over the entire earth. Isn’t this what this is all about from Iran’s perspective and isn’t it what makes Iran so incredibly dangerous? Also, isn’t the “sunset clause” in the JCPOA the length of a “Hudna” (10 years maximum) which is the maximum allowable cessation of hostilities against the Infidel?
Daniel Triplett says
Great analysis.
That’s how I see it too. And if there’s a way for Hunter, Jim, “Big Guy”, and the rest of the Biden Crime Family to extort a lucrative payoff while selling out America’s foreign policy and national security to Iran, I’m sure that will happen too.
Joementia and John “smartest guy in the room” Kerry will let the genie out of the bottle, allowing Iran to develop a nuke arsenal. That’s why we should destroy Iran’s entire nuke production infrastructure now in case Trump must leave in 6 weeks. A joint US/Israeli operation — not to invade, conquer, and occupy — but rather a limited 24-hour missile and airstrike. Destroy it, then leave, threatening them with a much larger operation, including regime change, if they retaliate.
James Lincoln says
Daniel Triplett,
The United States probably has a few more weeks to see what happens with the 2020 election at the US Supreme Court level.
If Pres. Trump is reelected, perhaps try even harsher draconian sanctions *first* to see what happens. An attack would still be preserved as an option.
If the US Supreme Court rules against Pres. Trump, the United States should attack as you have outlined – before Sleepy Joe takes over.
Hopefully the intelligence is excellent regarding the extent and locations of the Iranian nuclear program…
Daniel Triplett says
Agreed James.
Assuming Trump prevails, before a large-scale US kinetic operation, maximum sanctions should be tried first, if for no other reason than to satisfy the doves. Unilateral sanctions are doomed from the outset though. Unless all nations multi-laterally cooperate with the financial blockade, which hasn’t happened, US sanctions are feckless.
I see little evidence that sanctions alone are effective with regimes deeply committed to possessing nuke weapons.
For example, North Korea, who for many decades was the most sanctioned state on Earth. Now, they have at least 30 weapons, along with some modest missile technology to go with it. Although his country has starved and suffered for over half a century, nothing was going to stand between the Kim family and nuclear weapons.
Kim only wants the weapons for self-preservation though. He’s neither shown any intention nor moral imperative to conquer the world. He just wants to continue his power-trip and life of decadence, with his many houses, limousines, whiskey, cigarettes, NBA, pretty young girls, and plenty of comfort food.
The real danger with Kim is his nuke proliferation — selling the technology to the highest bidder, the Ummah. Notably, Iranian scientists and engineers have always been present on site during North Korean nuke tests.
Unlike Kim though, who only uses his nukes as a defensive shield against external attack and regime change, the Iranians have a moral imperative and duty to their deity to wage jihad to conquer the world until all submit to Allah or are exterminated. We all know they’re deadly serious about it. They declare it out loud every Friday in their public prayers. It’s codified in sharia Islamic law.
These are people who will honor kill their own children to please their deity. They aren’t likely to yield to financial pressures, since their lives on Earth aren’t their primary concerns, but rather fulfilling their religious obligations to and honoring Allah to gain themselves a guaranteed high place in Jannah for the Afterlife.
James Lincoln says
Daniel Triplett,
An excellent and “spot-on” post, my compliments.
Relic says
like lightning
https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/23/the-adventures-of-lightning-ellsworth/
Mojdeh says
MKO followers of Maryam Rajavi did it. My intel says it ?
Iran Foreign Minister Accuses Israel Of Killing Nuclear Scientist
The Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said there were “serious indications” that Israel was involved in Friday’s killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a nuclear scientist and member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC).
“Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today,” Zarif tweeted shortly after the Iranian Defense Ministry confirmed Fakhrizadeh’s death. “This cowardice—with serious indications of Israeli role—shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators.”
Zarif called on “the international community” and “especially” the European Union to “end their shameful double standards & condemn this act of state terror.”
According to Iranian media reports, Fakhrizadeh’s car was attacked at 2.30pm local time on the Mostafa Khomeini Boulevard in Abesard, a town 82km (51 miles) east of Tehran, as Fakhrizadeh returned from the north of Iran.
Eyewitnesses said a small truck exploded as Fakhrizadeh’s car was passing, after which a gunman opened fire at him and a bodyguard. Fakhrizadeh was subsequently airlifted to an unnamed local hospital, where he died.
Entekhab website reported there were also members of Fakhrizadeh’s entourage, including family members, killed. The fate of the attacker, or attackers, has not been disclosed.
Brigadier-General Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander-in-Chief, and Brigadier-General Hossein Dehghan, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, also pointed a finger at Israel. Israel has been suspected of involvement in the assassination of four Iranian nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2012, beginning on November 29, 2010, when Majid Shahriari was killed in Tehran.
In a tweet, Salami claimed Iran took revenge for these murders. “Only they know how we retaliated, we will not say where but they know,” he wrote. In a statement published on Twitter, Dehghan said today’s attack would also lead to retaliation: “We will descend like lightning on the killers of this wronged martyr and we will make them regret their actions!”
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 63, once named as a leading figure in Iran’s nuclear program by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, headed the New Defense Research Organization (NDRO), with the Farsi acronym Sepand. The exiled opposition group Mojahedin-e Khalq recently alleged that NDRO operated two sites aimed at building a nuclear weapon. Fakhrizadeh was subjected to a United Nations Security council asset freeze and travel notification requirements 13 years ago.
“We can compare Fakhrizadeh to Qasem Soleimani in terms of his importance in Iran’s nuclear program,” said Morad Veisi, military and security analyst of Iran International TV, referring to the Iranian general killed by the United States in Baghdad in January. “The fact that both were killed in less than a year is the biggest blow to Tehran’s intelligence network, which enjoys boundless authority and rich resources.”
President Donald Trump retweeted Israeli journalist Yossi Melman describing Fakhrizadeh’s death as “a major psychological and professional blow for Iran.” The White House, Pentagon and other US officials have not yet commented.