Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making some astonishing demands, including:
- NATO mustn’t admit additional countries near Russia, such as Ukraine and Georgia.
- NATO must cease military activity in non-NATO territories: Georgia, Ukraine, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and parts of eastern Europe.
Yet, incredibly, Putin has himself been enabling a NATO member’s aggression bordering Russia.
In 2020, the Kremlin embraced Turkey’s sending American-designed/equipped F-16s and Bayraktar drones containing NATO components into Azerbaijan.
Turkey and Azerbaijan (“one nation, two states”) subsequently defeated the Armenian populated Artsakh Republic/Nagorno-Karabagh and Russia’s longtime ally, Armenia. Israel backed Azerbaijan militarily.
The brutal 44-day war ended with a so-called peace agreement on November 9, 2020.
Russia facilitated Turkey’s (and, de facto, NATO’s) participation in Putin’s self-defeating grudge war against Armenians:
- Putin stood aside as Turkey openly deployed troops, weapons, and thousands of Russian-hating international terrorists into Azerbaijan.
- Turkey and Azerbaijan struck parts of Armenia, not just Artsakh. Yet Russia and the Russian-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) patently ignored their defense pacts with Armenia.
- For decades, Russia had stopped battles over Artsakh between Azerbaijan and Armenians at an early stage, despite Artsakh’s lacking a defense treaty with Russia. This time, though, Moscow intervened only belatedly (November 2020) as it posted Russian “peacekeeping” troops in parts of Artsakh.
- Moscow welcomed Turkish soldiers to partner with Russians in “monitoring” the peace agreement.
- Since the war ended, Putin and the CSTO (Azerbaijan isn’t a member) have shamelessly humiliated their Armenian ally. For instance, Russia is permitting Azeri troops — unquestionably at Turkey’s urging — to invade southern Armenia, seize highways, kill civilians, and attack Armenia’s diminished military.
- Russia and the CSTO continue to rebuff Yerevan’s legitimate requests for assistance.
In contrast:
- In January, Putin promptly dispatched CSTO troops into member Kazakhstan to subdue violent protests.
- NATO never signed a formal agreement barring eastward expansion. Therefore, despite the Kremlin’s contention, NATO isn’t legally required to bar Ukraine’s possible membership. Russia and the CSTO are, however, legally required to adhere to their signed, formal defense pacts with Armenia but aren’t doing so.
Russia’s Angry President
Elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2018’s democratic “Velvet Revolution,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was reelected in 2021.
Russia dislikes democratic leaders. They’re harder to arm-twist and bribe. True, Pashinyan has been somewhat friendlier to Western nations than Armenia’s earlier leaders.
Yet, post-independence (1991), Yerevan has maintained excellent political and economic relations with the EU, U.S., and NATO. In 2005, America built one of its largest embassies in the world under President Robert Kocharyan, a Putin favorite.
Regardless, Putin hated Pashinyan, barely spoke to him, and never gave him a chance.
European–Armenian relations go back thousands of years. A strong U.S.–Armenian friendship dates to the 19th century. This is natural for an ancient Christian nation speaking an Indo-European tongue.
Armenia has, nevertheless, allied itself with Russia for historical reasons and as security against genocidal Turkey and Azerbaijan. A more reliable Russian ally doesn’t exist.
Yerevan and Pashinyan certainly made mistakes before and during the war. But Putin’s angry betrayal of Armenians has been undeserved and irrational.
Pashinyan never oriented Yerevan away from Moscow. He couldn’t.
Moscow’s Grip
Russia supplies nearly all its ally’s gas, oil, and weapons, controls much of its energy infrastructure, including the Metsamor nuclear power plant, and has two military bases in Armenia.
The Kremlin’s imperialist attitude towards small allies: ‘You wouldn’t exist if not for Russia, so be eternally grateful. Otherwise, we’ll punish you even if it severely damages Russia.’
Indeed, due to Putin’s grudge war against Armenians:
- Turkey and NATO are now embedded deeper than ever in Azerbaijan and the Caucasus — militarily, politically, and economically.
- Russia’s foremost ally lost.
No wonder the neo-con U.S. State Department’s and NATO’s condemnations of Turkish/Azerbaijani aggression have been generally low-key.
True, Russia may now have more control over Armenia and has deployed 2000 troops in Artsakh. But Russia could have gotten these without the war. Instead, the Kremlin chose anger and war over sound judgment.
Ironically, though livid at Pashinyan’s mild Western outreach, Moscow seems fine with Turkey’s Western military, economic, and political memberships: NATO, EU Customs Union, and scores more.
Similarly for Azerbaijan: The UK has invested $100 billion, the EU is a major trade partner, and American investment is massive.
Western money helped build Azerbaijani energy pipelines which avoided Russia, going instead through Moscow’s adversary, Georgia. Even Donald Trump attempted to build a $200 million hotel in Baku.
But no, Moscow prefers to bully and betray its best ally.
Is Armenia really an important ally?
The Turkish/NATO Threat to Russia
Were Armenia to somehow exit Moscow’s camp, Turkey and NATO would rapidly displace Russia from the Caucasus because:
- Azerbaijan, a Western source for gas and oil, has long sided with Turkey not
- Georgia is supported by the West, links Turkey and Azerbaijan, and is, in effect, a NATO candidate.
The Caspian would become a NATO/Turkic lake.
Moreover, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey’s pan-Turkic aspirations lie just across the Caspian.
Russia would face a future grimmer than what NATO in Europe poses.
Is Russia Reliable?
Besides Moscow’s recent treachery, Armenians remember Moscow’s gifting Artsakh, Nakhichevan, and Western Armenian territory to Azerbaijan and Turkey in the 1920s,
Russia’s growing weakness also makes Armenians question its reliability.
Russia has lost most of eastern Europe to NATO. Despite territorial gains in Ukraine and Georgia, Moscow may eventually lose them (and Belarus) unless it invades some or all of them, which is possible but risky.
Central Asia looks shaky due to Turkish, Western, and Chinese inroads.
Without allies in the Black Sea, Russia worries about NATO exercises such as Sea Breeze 2021.
Turkey poses other problems for Russia.
Over Putin’s protests, Turkey sells Bayraktars and other weapons to Ukraine. Ankara demands that Crimea be returned to Kyiv. President Erdogan has threatened Russia with a Muslim uprising and declared that Turkey is ascendant in Central Asia. Russia still can’t oust Turkey from Syria.
Influenced by Russia’s Eurasianist theorist Aleksandr Dugin, Putin thinks he’s luring Turkey away from NATO. Erdogan is unlikely to fall for that trap.
Armenia’s Dilemma
Suppose Yerevan could escape the Russian bear’s grip. Joining NATO would not guarantee its security. Turkey, which has murderous plans for Armenia, would vastly outweigh it.
Turkey threatens Greece, Cyprus, and others, invades whatever countries it pleases, and supports ISIS and other international terrorists while the U.S., NATO, and Europe look the other way.
Kowtowing to Turkey for 100+ years has destroyed the West’s credibility.
The Caucasus’s future is hard to predict, but some major things – unlikely as they seem now – could reshape the region in the medium and long terms.
- To create a permanent Caucasus base, Russia may strong-arm Armenia into the Russian Federation and even, perhaps, make it Russia itself.
- Russia – enchanted by Eurasianism – could sell Armenia to Turkey and Azerbaijan in pursuit of a Russo-Turko alliance.
- At great political cost, Russia could shut down the entire NATO/Turkish eastward adventure by invading Georgia and Ukraine.
As for Armenia, it must maneuver between the region’s competing powers as it has for 3000 years.
David Boyajian’s primary foreign policy focus is the Caucasus. His work can be found at http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/David_Boyajian.
born saturday says
turkey has a criminal record, rather than history…
in many cases historically the western countries have turned the blind eye or even funded armed and supported jihadism deriving from turkey and not only, in order to tackle the russian influence…
the same was done in this case…. the armenians as orthodox christians were historically under the protection of russia and therefore by defeating them the west minimises the russian influence there..furthermore with the recognition of the armenian genocide from the usa this purpose is served. it was the same in syria, in yougoslavia…. the west used the jihadism that has been organised by turkey to oust russian influence….
whether this was the right way to go for the west was proven in bataclan and the twin towers in new york…. worldwide jihadism takes advantage of any support to slaughter and genocide christians but the western support on it means not the same jihadi networks will not turn against the west itself
islam is a beast of satan… the more you feed it it grows and expands and eventually tries to eat the ones feeding it in the first place as well… this is what the democrats in usa have been doing all the way despite the twin towers and they will not stop it because they are run by the clinton foundation that is funded by rich muslim countries…. the more the beast is fed with genocides and islamic style executions the more probable it will turn against the west also…
the behaviour of russia in the case of armenia is an example of how all bigger and more powerful countries have and will always behave to a small poor and underdeveloped countries in general… there is little difference served from the western countries towards weaker allies…
the example i have many times set is the turkalbanians jihad, that was supported by klinton to dismember yougoslavia and rid of russian influence in the balkans, in 1999, two years later the same turkalbanian jihadis were celebrating 9/11 with parties never done before in their lives and were all jumping and cheering watching the television news….
Jon Sobieski says
Turkey is now an economic basket case, foreign exchange deficits, gas shortages, power blackouts and inflation of 3% annually. Good news.
Wellington says
Re Russia, if only Russia after the demise of the Evil Empire in 1991 had realized that its best interests were aligned with the West, Russia would be in NATO by now (just as Turkey should have been kicked out of it by now since the advent of the wicked Erdogan).
Russia keeps seeing the West as the enemy. This is foolish in the extreme. Russia’s true enemies are China and the Islamic world. And so Putin is in keeping with Russia historically, as with the so-called Palestinians, in never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Putin is tactically brilliant but strategically foolish. This has been the course of Russian history for centuries now, whether under Czars, First Secretaries or now Putin. What a waste of a great people.
Westman says
So few Americans realize that if Russians spoke English and had actual democratic, limited-term, leaders that Russia would have been a good ally.
I can’t blame Putin for being paranoid concerning the West’s ambiguity about placing weapons on Russia’s doorstep. We wouldn’t want Russian influence in Mexico.
I do think Russia will invade Ukraine for two reasons, 1. To ensure the Ukraine cannot extort Russia’s income by controlling the flow of gas to the UK, and, 2. Ending the, never-ending, low level war with Ukraine.
I might be quite wrong, however, I’m personally preparing for a Russian hackers assault on our infrastructure now the US has begun sending arms to Ukraine. I doubt that it will be under the control of Russian leaders, more likely, spontaneous.
Wellington says
The fact, Westman, that nations like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, et al. saw NATO as a great thing (which traditionally it was—the single greatest alliance in history for the protection and promotion of freedom) and Russia saw it as a negative speaks volumes.
As for the Mexican analogy, America should have challenged Russia when it continued to see NATO as a threat by daring both Mexico and Russia to put all the missiles it wanted in Mexico. Call their bluff and all that. How in the Hell is America a threat to Mexico—it’s really only the other way around because Mexico is so dysfunctional (hey, no one looks at Mexico and says, “yeah, that’s a country that works”)?
There’s no excuse for Russia to see NATO as a threat. Had it been smart, it would have seen it as a great opportunity for Russo-American relations at their best and with common enemies like the Islamic sphere of mankind and China which intend neither American nor Russia any good. Russia blew another great opportunity.
gravenimage says
Russia is apt to invade Russia because it believes that Russia should always and foreveer have the right to oppress any nation that they had control over in the Iron Curtain. Really disgusting.
Infidel says
I doubt that Russia will invade Ukraine. The last time their troops were involved in the Donbass, they got a bloody nose, and a full blown war w/ Ukraine will reveal Russia to be as militarily hollow as Saudi Arabia was exposed to be in 1991. The main reason most people in the world think of Russia as a superpower is by looking at a map. Otherwise, that country has an economy the size of Italy and a population the size of Bangladesh. They have only ONE real great asset – land, and they never figured out how to monetize that
I do agree w/ you that having NATO right next door in Ukraine is a threat to them, just like Soviet missiles in Cuba were in 1962. Unfortunately, the State Department, like the rest of the bureaucracy, lives in a time warp in the 80s, and just as they then would interchangeably use the names ‘Soviet Union’ and ‘Russia’, they still think of the Russian Federation as the Soviet Union.
Honestly, the best way that the US could diffuse this crisis is by withdrawing from NATO itself. Russia then won’t care whether Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, et al join NATO or not
European pagan says
Russia is the biggest country in the world and it has abandoned places, instead of rebuilding them, or building new cities or villages to the empty places they want to take away other countries’ territories. Russians should go to Russia and leave other nations in peace. ????
Wellington says
Should but won’t because, as George Kennan observed, Russia looks upon its neighbors as vassals or enemies. This is because Russia is retarded on the matter of liberty. It is Russia’s great character flaw and has hurt Russia even more than it has hurt others.
gravenimage says
Erdogan Triumphs as Putin Stabs His Own Best Ally in the Back
……………
Putin has been playing footsie with the appalling would-be Caliph Erdogan for a long time now. Utterly disgusting.
Dano S. says
This is the worst and most inaccurate article I have ever read on this site. “Astonishing demands”? What a ridiculous thing to say. Almost as ridiculous as the claim that Turkey is Russia’s best ally.
Infidel says
Ironically, the most support that Armenia has gotten has been from Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE. Essentially, there are Christians and muslims on both sides of this divide
gravenimage says
Ah, yes–how *dare* anyone fail to kowtow to the diktats of Putin over what freedom his neighbors are allowed to have?
Falsafa says
The lies and the spin in this so called article from David Boyajian is beyond measure.
“Armenian military forces committed genocide acts in the town of Khojaly, Azerbaijan, with the population of 7,000 people on Feb. 26 1992….These were committed by Armenian militaries with special mercilessness and inconceivable barbarism.”
https://reliefweb.int/report/azerbaijan/azerbaijan-khojaly-genocide-tragedy-20th-century
The Azeri forces reclaimed occupied Azeri land from the Armenian occupiers, in observance of UN Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh issued since 1993.
Boycott Turkey says
Azeris committed Genocide on Armenians in Baku and ethnically cleansed them Artaksh isn’t Azerbaijan it’s Armenian there’s no ancient mosque in Azerbaijan but there’s Ancient Armenian Monasteries Stalin made a mistake by giving it to Azerbaijan historically it’s Armenian and always have been Armenians have lived there for centuries Azerbaijan is a Nazi country like Turkey built on Genocide
Falsafa says
Presenting wikipedia as your source shows how absurd and desperate your propaganda is. There are Armenian communities in Azerbaijan and Turkey today, with their places of worship, schools fully protected. There is not a single Azeri in Armenia today..with not a single place of worship remaining…all destroyed….razed to the ground…like a lunar landscape…and mined…all acts of genocide and crimes of war…Armenia will have to answer to the ICJ for their unspeakable barbarity. The fact that you actually justify the genocide of the Azeri population from the lands which Armenia has occupied clearly shows…as expected…what a warped, racist, criminal mind you and your kind possess. I pity you!
Rafael says
You are the real racists, criminals, and fascists, Falsafa. Ottoman Empire and it’s terrorist Young Turk government committed genocide against more than a million of Armenians, including children and women. You can look the photos of it on the web. Poor Armenian girls crucified by barbaric terrorists that were of your mind. Many countries recognized this Armenian genocide. There are no Armenians in the Eastern Anatolia today. Not more than a few hundreds maybe. And your saying that there are Armenians in Azerbaijan is a pure lie. There are no Armenians living in their ancient Armenian lands today, including those in Turkey. If you justify killing of children, as that was happened in the Armenian genocide, than you must be a real monster.
gravenimage says
+1, Rafael.
Boycott Turkey says
Genocide of Armenians in Baku by Azeris https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_pogrom
Boycott Turkey says
Genocide of Armenians by Azerbaijan in Baku https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_pogrom
gravenimage says
Note that the self-styled “Falsafa” regularly denies the Armenian Genocide here. That says it all.
Infidel says
Joining NATO is out of the question for Armenia, given how islamophilic Europe itself has become, and given that Turkey is the most powerful member, if one takes out the US. Since Russia has betrayed them, Armenia should look elsewhere for other military allies not friends w/ Turkey. Pick countries like India, Japan, Australia, Vietnam and form alliances w/ them. Maybe start w/ trade, and then upgrade it to defense
Boycott Turkey says
Great Article very accurate I agree Russia backstabbed its allies and Putin is a hypocrite he was mad because Armenia was becoming To pro west but ignores Turkey being in NATO and selling arms to Ukrainian and joining NATO will do no good for Armenia as Greece is in NATO and it’s done nothing to support Greece against Turkey except for France the west has always been Turkophile now Russia is also becoming the same unfortunately it’s very sad and disappointing when evil prevails Armenia needs to build up its military get nukes as a deterrent the problem with most orthodox Christian countries is they thought Russia would save them but Russia has done nothing they didn’t help the Serbs in Kosovo Serbia Greece Armenia needs to build up there militaries and forget about Russia As I suspect Russia wants those contries to stay weak so it can control them never trust anybody look after your own
Infidel says
Precisely! Like I pointed out above, only the Arabs – of all people – have openly supported Armenia. And so has India, to a point. Armenia should build up its economy w/ their help, and then their military, and then leave the CSTO and flip Moscow the ?
Boycott Turkey says
Yes infidel it would be best for Armenia to become a nuclear power somehow and then kick the Russian base out they are no ally they as well as Turkey and Azerbaijan want to take over Armenia Russia is no freind to any orthodox Christian country they gave weapons to The Turks when Greeks tried to reclaim Constantinople also they did nothing to help the Serbs in Kosovo they could have gone to Kosovo and bombed the KLA Terrorist and said Serbia had invited them as a Allie to do it like they did in Syria against the FSA because Assad invited them to as a ally with friends like that who needs enemies
Myron J. Poltroonian says
Sounds like the nether-orifices of intrigue and dissension are at it again. 1., Not sure why Israel would support an Islamo-Facist state over a putative Christian Nation? After all, Israel wouldn’t exist without Christian {leaning] nations [just check the UN’s roll call vote in 1948] Besides, Armenia shares a border with the greatest threat Israel faces, Iran. 2., Since Armenia needs both more economic development and security from both Erdogan’s and Iran’s ambitions, I believe they should be encouraged to join NATO and allow a large US and Israeli military presence. If NATO isn’t willing to take meaningful, effective measures against any member that commits aggression against member states, how likely are they to be depended on to take measures against a non-member state or states? I sense a new alliance between the Balkans, Crete, a part of the South Caucuses, Israel and the Arb nations that have recently opened up diplomatic and economic relations with them. Trump could pull this off. Unfortunately, Biden’s in charge.
Hank says
I doubt Russia will invade Ukraine either. They are just about to get themselves into something far worse. Khazakstan= (Afghanistan + Chechnya) X 1000.
Interesting article. Russians never change. All the constant intrigue and backstabbing instead of living peacefully with their neighbors. Even betrayal of Ancient Orthodox Armenia and support of Muslim Azerbaijan expansion.
Instead of fertilizing all these nations with the dead bodies of Russian soldiers, why don’t they instead engage in Trade and Commerce and make themselves a wealthy nation?? Let Russian citizens enjoy the wealth themselves. An acquaintance once told me that the old generation in his country who fought many wars against Russian aggression have a saying: “Russians don’t change even if you fried them in butter”. Today, you have paranoid Putin living in an old Soviet bubble trying to find some excuse to trigger another war in Ukraine.
The article states: “Israel backed Azerbaijan militarily.”
If Russia and the EU have become Islamophilic, let not Israel (of all countries) become Islamophilic. This one defies logic knowing what is written in the Quran.