Iran is in a parlous state. Its economy is in a shambles. The Iranian rial has lost 90% of its value in the last three years. 80% of Iranians now live below the poverty line. Its farmers are suffering from the worst drought in fifty years, made worse by the mismanagement of water resources. Exports of Iranian oil have sunk to about one million barrels a day. Unemployment has surpassed 10%, and is now three times that in the United States. All over the country, Iranians have gone out on the streets to protest the corruption of the leaders and the mismanagement of the economy; the regime has answered their calls for an end to the regime – the cry “Death to Khamenei” is unambiguous – by ordering that the protesters be beaten up and arrested. The mysterious deaths of a half-dozen high-ranking Quds officers has led to an atmosphere of fear and despair. No one is quite sure who is responsible for the killing of IIRGC commanders and other military men. Is it a foreign adversary, that is, Israel, with its Mossad operatives, or domestic assassins who belong to the increasing opposition within the country, or members of the regime itself who are either settling scores with political rivals, or eliminating extra-judicially those whom they suspect of being traitors to the regime and therefore deserve to die? The free-floating suspicion has not spared anyone. In late June the highest-ranking suspect so far, Brigadier General Ali Nasiri, was secretly arrested and charged with being a spy for Israel.
A report on Iran’s paranoid regime is here: “Iran’s regime increasingly unstable, turning to purges out of fear,'” Israel Hayom, June 30, 2022:
The Iranian regime is increasingly unstable and is turning against itself due to mounting economic pressure, an exclusive source in the nation’s capital, Tehran, told i24NEWS.
Most significantly the source – an opponent of the regime – suggested that a number of recent killings of officers from the Quds Force were the result of internal purges, rather than assassinations by external intelligence agencies.
Increasing economic woes caused by sanctions on Iran are becoming a threat to the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As the Iranian public struggles to pay for basic essentials and even the government has difficulty paying salaries, discontent is growing, the source said.
The relentlessly increasing impoverishment of the Iranian people has led to a collapse in loyalty to the regime. At the same time that they become poorer, enraged Iranians are keenly aware of the corruption at the top, as exemplified by the Ayatollah Khamenei’s $95 billion net worth – which the American government believes to be a low figure, estimating the Supreme Leader’s real net worth at a colossal $200 billion. Iranians know how their leaders live, and it maddens them.
“The companies controlled by the Revolutionary Guards have gone bankrupt; their corruption has increased and the thefts have worsened,” the critic said.
The worse the economic situation, the more those in Iran’s government are willing to sell favors to the highest bidder. Corruption – the powerful being paid for favors rendered, from awarding state contracts to providing someone’s family members with secure government sinecures — has increased, and so has the outright theft of government assets. Those who remain honest become increasingly disheartened at the spectacle of dishonesty all around them.
As well as being the ideological vanguard of the Iranian regime, the IRGC is a huge economic player inside the country, owning a large portfolio of properties and business interests.
The properties that the IRGC has invested in have, like the rest of Iranian assets, sunk in value. And there is nothing the IRGC can do to prevent this; those assets rise or fall in value with the overall economy. Right now they are in free fall.
The Quds Force is the branch within the IRGC responsible for conducting operations outside of Iran and liaising with proxies. It too is feeling the pinch.
“These purges… started with the Quds Force. A number of [its officers] were killed by the regime itself,” the source said, noting that the resulting fear is causing some commanders to mistrust their bodyguards and to avoid sleeping in their own homes at night.
Imagine being so terrified that, despite your rank, you worry about being killed by your own bodyguards. Or that you insist on spending nights not in your own house, but in constantly changing safe houses, to avoid assassins.
Some IRGC officers, like Hossein Taeb, who had been the head of the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, were fired for incompetence, But others, who had been discharging their duties correctly, mysteriously died. Why? Some were suspected of being connected to Israel’s Mossad. Others were thought to be members of, or dangerously sympathetic to, the leading domestic opposition group, the secretive People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), also known as Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK). Still others may simply have been loyal to the wrong powerful figure, and consequently eliminated by that figure’s rivals.
Adding to the paranoia gripping the establishment is that some of the killings are likely conducted by foreign intelligence agencies – with Israel often labeled as the most likely culprit. This is creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in Iran with individuals dying in unexplained circumstances, with no clear answer as to whether the killing was ordered from abroad, or at home.
“This has caused an earthquake in the trunk of the system, and this is just the beginning of the assassinations,” the opposition figure said.
Iran has now descended into the paranoid world of the Moscow Purge Trials, of Lenin’s Bolshevist slogan “Kto kogo” (“Who Will Defeat or Kill Whom?”), of Hitler’s Night of the Long Knives, of the Peruvian Sendero Luminoso, of Cambodia’s Pol Pot, head of the Khmer Rouge, murdering those he suspected of being secretly allied to the old order, or to the Vietnamese, or simply because they were deemed to be too highly educated). Once the grim atmosphere of free-floating suspicion has set in, any one can be seen as a potential killer, or as someone deserving to die.
An ongoing dispute between Major General Mohsen Rezaee – a twice presidential candidate and former head of the IRGC –and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, is behind much of this infighting, the source said. Further killings are likely to occur as the division between the two conservative figures continues, the source predicted.
The Rezaee-Raisi dispute is not over ideology – both are conservatives – but over power, money, and access to the Supreme Leader. Why not try to eliminate your rival’s band of loyalists, getting them fired, or arrested, or even killed, before he does it first to yours?
In recent weeks a number of high-profile IRGC commanders have been moved into new roles, or were fired from their positions. This is because senior figures “no longer even trust their own agents. The information holes have become so large that they are afraid of their own shadow,” the regime critic said.
The latest example of such firing was that of Hossein Taeb, a cleric who was dismissed from his position as head of the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in June 2022. This is assumed to be the result of the latest example of Taeb’s incompetence — the incident where an alleged Iranian operation to attack Israeli tourists in Turkey was outed, resulting in the arrest of the agents and a diplomatic spat with Turkey, and also to other incidents inside Iran that suggested successful Israeli spy operations that Taeb failed to prevent. Taeb’s dismissal also coincided with the arrest of Brig. General Ali Nasiri on suspicion of spying for Israel. When Israeli operations – sabotage, assassinations — succeed inside Iran, someone must be blamed. Taeb had a record of incompetence, and though powerful friends for a while could protect him, the Istanbul fiasco was the last straw; he had to go.
Was Brigadier General Ali Nasiri a spy for Israel? Or was he falsely accused by someone higher up who didn’t like him, so that he would become the fall guy for the regime’s systemic failures, including its inability to foil Mossad agents? It would certainly be terrifying for the Iranian government if Israel had managed to turn someone that high up in the regime’s hierarchy, persuading him to feed them information. Clearly Mossad has agents in high places all over Iran. How else could Israel’s cyberwarriors have known just where, and how, to implant the Stuxnet computer worm in 2010? How did Israeli assassins manage to kill, seriatim, four of Iran’s top nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2012? How did Mossad agents locate the nondescript warehouse where Iran had kept its entire nuclear archive, and manage to sneak that archive out of Iran and back to Israel? How did Mossad manage to sneak a massive explosive device onto the floor of the centrifuge plant at Natanz? Perhaps one or two arrests of people as high up as Brigadier General Ali Nasiri will calm down members of the government who have had a sinking feeling that they are being bested on all sides by Israeli agents, a way to reassure them that they mustn’t be alarmed, that “something is being done.” Of course, another few successes by Mossad in hampering Iran’s nuclear program will make Iranians, who had been tentatively reassured both by the firing of the incompetent Taeb and by the arrest of General Nasiri, the supposed “Israeli spy,” even more alarmed than before. And then the government purges will start up again, with a vengeance. And the Iranian regime will not know where to put its feet or hands.
Shyam Mehta says
And why is Iran’s economy in a parlous state. Could it be Uncle Sam? They should give trillions of dollars to Iran to help them build nuclear weapons or better still just donate some missiles and warheads which are doing nothing useful in USA
gravenimage says
This poster has exposed himself as an ugly troll.
Sunny Imarhiagbe says
Until the evil regime in Iran is toppled and cast into the dustbin, the people of Iran would continuously be subjected to slavery! They need to be freed from that bondage!
PMK says
The people of Iran are going to have to free themselves and not took to others to come to their rescue. They have to pledge their own lives to the cause and they will if they are serious about wanting freedom.
gravenimage says
Agreed, PMK.
SKA says
Karma – the wolves devouring the sheep are now turning on each other! Nothing quite beats all this “Islamic brotherhood!”
Infidel says
I’ve been hearing that the regime is about to fall forever! Wake me up when it actually happens
PMK says
Same here.
SKA says
My educated guess is that once the regime cannot pay its security forces, including its “rent-a-mobs” of the various “charitable” Bunyan’s (foundations), then its days are over. The real first principle of religion is not “La illaha il Allah” but rather “La illaha il Dollar!” No moolah and there will be no mullahs!
gravenimage says
Yep–we’ve been hearing that this is immanent for the past forty-plus years now.
Bull Herman says
The Iranians are hoping Biden swoops in like Batman to save the day.
Maybe Iran will up and suddenly accept the new Nuke deal?
It’s simple really. You curse Israel you get cursed. Bless Israel you’re blessed.
Hopefully Mossad has hacked everything including their grocery lists.
Otherwise maybe send Iran all those Islamist immigrants in EU. Make Iran more of an Islamist paradise.
Walter Sieruk says
A former Muslim revealed an important reality when he wrote “The Islamic republic of Iran exists and operates as what every fundamentalist dreams of, an Islamic state ruled by sharia …” He further exposes that “What followed its establishment was the inevitable consequence and inexorable logic of its Islamic premise; state terrorism, a merciless tyranny.” [1]
Furthermore, in the book entitled HOW ISLAM PLANS TO CHANGE THE WORLD, by William Wagner on page 208 the reader is informed that “The creation of the Islamic republic in Iran has had the effect that many from that country have become disillusioned with Islam and are looking to leave Iran. ”
This is a point worth pondering.
[1] THE ISLAM IN ISLAMIC TERRORISM by Ibn Warraq page 347.
Walter Sieruk says
The Iranian people need for a rather good future government in Iran, in place of that hideous Islamic tyranny that they suffer under now.
The political philosophy of John Locke might be of some importance on creating an Iranian government the respects the rights of its citizens.
For Locke taught that people do have natural rights. If those basic humans rights completely disregarded as freedom from tyrannical “mullah regime” of Iran , the citizens do have to gather together to overthrow that oppressive dictatorship and replace it with a genuine government that respects the rights of the people, as ,for example for a choice of faith , what to wear. Listen to music, in other a search for a person to find his or her own happiness.
Freedom from fear or harm by any type of State police , as that Islamic regimes band of brutal and oppressive thugs who are called Iran’s “Revolutionary Guards ”
No more living in fear as now in that current heinous “mullah tyranny” in power in Iran
.
To such a situation as this the wisdom printed by Benjamin Franklin in his periodical POOR RICHARD’S ALMANAC may apply, which reads “Those who are feared are also hated.”
Walter Sieruk says
About that Sharia based tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran which has the official title of “The Islamic Republic of Iran” and also about the chief and head Imam, Ayatollah Khomeini, who had a strong hand in establishing this so called “Republic “
The very actual essence of that Islamic tyranny, Ayatollah Khomeini, had made in known that “The Islamic Republic of Iran would be Islamic and nothing but .He declared ‘What the nation wants is an Islamic Republic. Not just a Republic, not a democratic Republic, not a democratic Islamic Republic. Do not use the word “democratic” to describe it. That is the Western style. ‘” [1]
Furthermore, that cruel and tyrannical Islamic regime of Iran regime has severely limited to an extreme much knowledge and wisdom from the outside world. This is because that fiendish and murderous ayatollahs and mullahs in power in Iran are very much afraid the Iranian people might discover different ideas. As the idea’s and philosophy of John Locke
For example, Locke views the people living under any genuine government are people retaining their individual rights after a government has been established to protect human rights. . In other words, the securing of their rights – the protection of the life, liberty and property of all – is the sole legitimate purpose of government. If a government begins to abuse those rights it then becomes tyrannical and the governed [the people] retain the right to overthrow that government and replace it with one that does its job properly.
So that heinous”mullah regime” of Iran, greatly fears such ideas and keeps the people under his hideous control of his tyranny in and the darkness of much limited information.
[1]`THE HISTORY OF JIHAD by Robert Spencer, page 318.
Walter Sieruk says
That brutal and oppressive Islamic tyranny of Iran has been well nicknamed “the mullahs regime” in which them mullahs and ayatollahs as well as other fiendish and fanatical Muslims in power have a strong and awful control of the Islamic regime of Iran and through their band of Islamic state “police” , who are called the “Revolutionary Guards “come down hard human rights of the Iranian people .
It also should be noted that that the official title of that ” mullah regime” is “The Islamic Republic of Iran.” That word inn its title is very misleading. For the actual word “Republic” has on origin the Latin meaning “Of the people” With the mullahs ayatollahs in so much power and even influencing the parliament of this Islamic regime is tyranny is hardly a real republic .
Furthermore the ruthless gang of thugs who are the stooges of those Muslim clerics, called the “Revolutionary Guards,” those Islamic State “police” come down hard on the human rights and freedoms of the Iranian people. Therefore the people do have the right to overthrow a tyranny. This reality had even been expressed and described by men of great intelligence .For example, the philosopher .John Locke. This is wisdom that mullahs and other villains in power in that Islamic tyranny don’t want the Iranian people to know about or understand.
gravenimage says
Fear and Loathing in Iran
…………………………….
This is your economy on Islam…
SKA says
I remember Ayatullah Khomeini boasting “The future belongs to those who sit upon oceans of oil!” Of course those “oceans of oil” did nothing for the Muslims until “infidel” Western geologists and oil companies located and developed those oil fields.
The Islamists have no concept of the creativity of human endeavor and economics. In their worldview wealth is static and gain can be made only as a zero sum game. Ali Dashti correctly characterized the “Islamic economic system” as based purely on plunder and punitive taxation of unbelievers. In Venezuela Chavez made the same mistake of viewing its oil production as a constant and an inexhaustible piggy bank for his socialist fantasies. He failed to realize that maintaining its oil production required constant exploration and reinvestment of its profits for replacement of depreciating oilfield equipment and pipelines. The mullahs likewise banked everything on oil and nothing on the human creativity of private property snd free trade, the very idea of human creativity being bida’at (heretical innovation) to them.
They have squeezed Iran’s economy as plunderers do to the point of killing it. Only pallets of tributary money from the West can rescue them. All eyes upon Biden.
gravenimage says
All important points, SKA. Having oil resources, everything else being equal, is a plus for any local economy.
But it is not the be all and end all. There are wealthy nations with oil reserves, mid-range countries, and those with basket case economies. Then, there are civilized nations with no oil resources at all, like Israel and the Netherlands, that ae doing very well.
And as you note, oil wasn’t good for anything–save “greek fire”–before the creative Infidels learned how to really use it.
Every savvy country diversifies–they don’t count on a single resource, no matter how generally useful, *especially* one that has its ups and downs, and, even more important, is likely a finite resource.
Recently, along with Iran, we’ve seen Venezuela and now Russia try to rely entirely on oil, with predictably sad results.
I hope we don’t see Biden further bailing out the Mullahs.
And SKA, great to see you posting again.
SKA says
Thank you, Gravenimage!
I once remarked to some Indian friends who are Hindu that one of G-d’s greatest blessings on India was its lack of oil resources. Rather than having a cash flow that too often creates corruption of government and private individuals trying to siphon off the oil income Indians had to rely on their own ingenuity and work ethic, after finally learning that state socialism didn’t work, to build up a dynamic economy and technology that was competitive on the world level. I believe if the Iranians can overthrow the current regime and avoid the socialist fantasies of groups like the People’s Mujahideen they could replicate India’s model of success. The big “if” depend on the regime being able to continue paying its mercenary IRGC and Basij forces as well as its “rent-a-mob” pensioners. Sadly it would be just like Biden to send the mullah pallets of dollars, as did his master Obama before him, so saving them in their critical hour.
gravenimage says
SKA, I don’t think that oil is necessarily a curse, but relying on it exclusively certainly is. And since India largely embraced the free market their standard of living and opportunity have *skyrocketed*. I’ve been very glad to see it.