Amid failed Iranian terrorist plots abroad and the assassination of several operatives linked to its nuclear weapons program, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s military and foreign terrorist arm, appears to be in total disarray.
News reports say that the Iranian regime fired the IRGC’s intelligence chief and arrested a senior IRGC commander on a charge of spying for Israel.
Hossein Taeb, who reportedly masterminded the recently foiled terror plot to kill Israeli nationals in Turkey, has been fired from the post of IRGC’s intelligence chief.
The Times of Israel noted, “Taeb was identified by Hebrew media last week as the Iranian official behind planned attacks on Israelis in Turkey.”
“The reports, citing Israeli security officials, said that Taeb was under intense pressure to carry out an attack, amid growing frustration in Iran over repeated Israeli successes in penetrating Iran’s most secret organizations,” the Israeli news website added.
Taeb’s plot was foiled last week after Israeli intelligence warned the Turkish authorities of an impending terror attack that led to the capture of several Iranian and local operatives in Istanbul.
The other major event that rocked the regime’s security apparatus was the arrest of IRGC Brigadier General Ali Nasiri on charges of spying for Israel, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing Iranian regime sources.
News reports suggested that the general’s arrest could be linked to a major security breach linked to the regime’s missile program. The newspaper Israel Hayom noted Wednesday that “two months before Nasiri’s arrest several dozen employees of the Iranian Defense Ministry, who worked on developing its missile program, were detained on suspicion of leaking classified information to Israel.”
The Islamic Guard oversees the nuclear weapons program and the development of nuclear-capable missiles.
Reuters reported the firing of the IRGC intelligence chief last week:
Iran has dismissed the powerful chief of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence unit, Hossein Taeb, Iranian state TV said on Thursday, after a series of high-profile incidents Tehran has blamed on its arch-foe Israel.
Iranian state media did not give a reason but state TV said Taeb would become an adviser to the Guards’ Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami. Taeb will be replaced by Mohammad Kazemi, previously head of the Guards’ Intelligence Protection unit. (…)
Taeb, a mid-ranking cleric and a member of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s inner circle, was accused by some Israeli media of being behind an alleged Iranian plot to kill or abduct Israelis vacationing in Turkey. Israel raised its Istanbul travel advisory to the highest alert level on June 13.
The recent assassinations of senior IRGC operatives and scientists linked to its ballistic missile program have shaken the regime’s faith in its massive security apparatus.
The regime’s top brass blames Israel for these incidents. “The security breaches in Iran and the scale of Israeli operations have completely undermined our most powerful intelligence organization,” Iran’s former Vice President Muhammad Ali Abtahi admitted to the NYT.
The IRGC intelligence chief is not the only one fired from his job. A “wide wave of dismissals has hit the Islamic Guard,” and internal rivalries may also drive this purge, the Jerusalem Post reported quoting Arab media.
“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reportedly cleaning house after a series of intelligence failures, including IRGC officers who have been assassinated in Iran, or died under mysterious circumstances, becoming “martyrs” in the terminology of the Iranian regime,” the Israeli newspaper reported Monday. “The IRGC is now toppling its own in a mini-purge that could be part of rivalries or an internal coup, or simply be the need to get rid of the old and bring in the new,” the daily added.
Devasur says
Update to recent Indian killing
A contempt of court has been filed against reporter Nupur Sharma for criticizing the Indian leftist woke fascist judiciary.
And leftist judges are openly saying they are not accountable to anyone and people cant have free opinions and cant criticize the judiciary.
India needs judicial reform otherwise it will become an Islamic sharia country.
gravenimage says
Appalling, Devasur. Nupur Sharma has been treated shamefully not just by threatening Muslims, but by the Indian government, the courts, and her own party. All she did was tell the truth about the “Prophet” of Islam per Islam’s *own ‘holy’ texts*.
Shyam Mehta says
I agree with you mostly. Shameful treatment by the courts etc. for telling truth.
But, it should be noted that she is rich, well, not injured and not dead. She can be given full apology etc at any time by the Modi government, but I believe it is politically expedient to pretend to the Muslims that she did some fictitious wrong.
gravenimage says
Right now Nupur Sharma is in hiding, she is inundated with death threats, and there are Jihad riots against her in India and other parts of the world.
If she is still alive it is not because of Muslims screaming death threats against her.
It being “politically expedient” to kowtow to Muslim death threats over someone telling the truth about Islam, *per Islamic texts*, is just appalling.
And appeasement in the face of murderous aggression has *never* worked. With respect I’m not sure how you think it works here.
Shyam Mehta says
Re sentences 1 and 2, I agree with you.
Basically, I am a libertarian, not 100% but close to the thinking of Ayn Rand. If someone wants to mutter a death threat let them go right ahead.
My view is that Nupur is alive because God wishes it so, in the same way that that wonderful writer Rushdie is, and you and I are.
If some Muslims want to scream and riot and behead and rape, that is up to them, just as it is up to me if I wanted to do such idiotic things.
If Muslims want to pretend that the Quran does not encourage rape and lies and beheadings, that is up to them.
If Modi wants to appease Muslim women, as he does, to gain their votes, that is up to him. Appeasement works fine, always has.
Murderous aggression by the yanks worked wonders in Vietnam and Afghanistan and in Japan after WW2 was over when they dropped atomic bombs.
It works fine with most people.
As to “murderous aggression” here, what such? Nupur is alive and well.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
Now and always is the time to free her from police protection. If she is good, no Muslim will touch her, if she is bad good riddance
gravenimage says
Shyam Mehta wrote:
Re sentences 1 and 2, I agree with you.
Basically, I am a libertarian, not 100% but close to the thinking of Ayn Rand. If someone wants to mutter a death threat let them go right ahead.
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The claim that Ayn Rand was fine with threatening murder *could not be further from the truth*. Just claptrap.
But this poster himself is now threatening violence on other threads against posters here and against gay people, which is not allowed here.
More:
My view is that Nupur is alive because God wishes it so, in the same way that that wonderful writer Rushdie is, and you and I are.
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Salman Rushdie had to go into hiding for many years, his editor and one of his translators was murdered, and shops carrying his books were firebombed.
Is Shyam Mehta fine with this Jihad savagery?
Then, I have been threatened for drawing Muhammed cartoons and opposing Jihad terror. This is why I post under a pseudonym here.
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If some Muslims want to scream and riot and behead and rape, that is up to them, just as it is up to me if I wanted to do such idiotic things.
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This is actually *illegal* in civilized places. The idea that murdering people is just a lifestyle choice is grotesque. And murder is far worse than idiotic.
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If Muslims want to pretend that the Quran does not encourage rape and lies and beheadings, that is up to them.
If Modi wants to appease Muslim women, as he does, to gain their votes, that is up to him. Appeasement works fine, always has.
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Appeasement *does not work*. Claiming that it does is completely false.
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Murderous aggression by the yanks worked wonders in Vietnam and Afghanistan and in Japan after WW2 was over when they dropped atomic bombs.
It works fine with most people.
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The claim that the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Japan after WWII is *a lie*, as is the idea that opposing Fascism was itself aggression. Just appalling falsehoods.
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As to “murderous aggression” here, what such? Nupur is alive and well.
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The idea that mass death threats backed up by violent riots are not to be taken seriously is ludicrous.
Yet more:
Now and always is the time to free her from police protection. If she is good, no Muslim will touch her, if she is bad good riddance
…………………………………………..
Muslims have already said they intend to murder Sharma for telling the truth about Muhammed *per Islamic texts*. So saying anything critical of Islam is “bad” as this poster would have it, and they deserve to be murdered by Jihadists.
What is this poster even doing here?
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
The followers of this evil man may have some difficulties tonight. https://market24hclock.com/Commodities/Oil WTI off $9 so far at $102. I have meeting in 34 mins. Any takers on oil at $70 by then? Oh sorry $101 now
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
Oh I was pretty close. I claim to be right as usual. Oil at $12 off not $32. Who cares about $18 and who cares about Israel anyway?
I mean $11 off now. Obviously oil is headed straight up. Also I often get meeting times wrong. Maybe I meant tomorrow not today?
gravenimage says
This poster is just babbling now.
Westman says
Maybe Iranians are fed up with all the “strange fruit” that seems to hang about the reign of this Ayatollah.
Khamenei should be looking over his shoulder, wondering when Karma will find him. All that torture, rape, and killing of dissidents is on the scales that will measure his soul. May Allah give him everything he deserves if the citizens don’t get him first.
Shyam Mehta says
According to Hinduism, God is fair and just. If you even kill an ant, you will suffer (small) appropriately. There are 2 methods by which this happens. You suffer greatly at death for crimes committed in this life, and also you go to one of 7 hells, depending on the severity of punishment needed. So, for example, if you are LBJ (American president) and responsible for 1 million napalmings, 500,000 rapes, 4 million injuries…in Vietnam alone, besides the theft of $10 trillion from American citizens, and the death of 10000 buffaloes…the amount of time your soul suffers in hell the exact same experiences etc. is rather large. The same is true for all living beings, whether they are Irainian or whether they were born to be a lion. If you are going to have a next life, then you suffer in that life also, but then the suffering eg in hell is correspondingly reduced.
Shyam Mehta says
Am I worried that these idiotic Muslims with their rubbish evil religion knowing my email address can easily track me down here in Dehradun? Not in the slightest.
Shyam Mehta says
The fact of the matter is that because Mohammad was evil he had the most horrible death imaginable. In the same way, many of the so-called ‘saints’ like Mother Theresa and popes and Hindu ‘saints’ had absolutely horrible deaths. When you select someone to worship or look up to, the first thing you should do is carefully examine the available information about how he or she died. Christ: how did he die? Shankara, the most famous Indian philosopher. How did he die, slow poisoning. My former yoga ‘guru’ BKS Iyengar: multiple organ failure. Gandhi…the list of horrible deaths amongst the leaders is astonishing.
And you should also closely examine with ‘religious’ leaders who they followed. Mohammad: not God/Allah but angel Gabriel. Jesus: no one. Popes: Jesus.
And of course you should use common sense and reason to examine what they wrote: was it good or evil. It is obvious to anyone that the Quran and Bible (new and old testament) are evil. All you need to do is read them rather than listen to the white wash rubbish that their followers say.
gravenimage says
The idea that having a difficult death is in and of itself an indication that someone was not a good person is moral insanity.
Some bad people do indeed make a lot of enemies, and this can lead to a grisly demise; but there are very find and decent people who have the misfortune of dying a difficult death, just as there are evil people who pass away peacefully in their sleep.
Shyam Mehta says
After nuclear strike by Israel against Iran in next few hours and conquest of Saudi Arabia by them.Price of oil shoot will rise. roof. No oil trade and no shale in USA as it depends on diesel) no transport leading to mass hunger and death.No food in Muslim countries so Muslims eliminated
gravenimage says
Why would Israel nuke Iran? They have never nuked anyone. And why would they want to conquer Saudi Arabia–a hard-line Islamic country with almost four times their population? Besides, while Saudi Arabia has never recognized Israel, there are no direct hostilities between the two. And Israel doesn’t even have a border with Saudi Arabia–they would have to go through Jordan to attack Saudi Arabia.
This is the exact opposite of what has happened historically–Muslim nations have attacked Israel; Israel has not attacked Muslim nations.
Then, if Israel did attack and conquer Saudi Arabia–never mind how absurd an assertion this is–the idea that they would refuse to trade with the US, including oil, makes no sense at all.
Then, the implication that the US has no oil is simply not true either. The US actually has the largest oil reserves on earth, notwithstanding Biden’s shutting down much drilling.
And the idea that the US does not produce shale oil is also mistaken–last year the US produced 2.64 billion barrels of shale oil.
And the largest potential producer of shale oil is not Saudi Arabia, but China.
And Saudi Arabia is not the only nation we import oil from, either–there is also Canada, Mexico, and Colombia–and until recently, Russia.
The idea that if Saudi Arabia was conquered that this would lead to mass hunger in the United States and the rest of the world makes no sense. Saudi Arabia currently holds 12% of the world’s oil–a huge figure, but hardly a deal breaker. Besides, again you do not say why Israel would refuse to export oil to the US and other parts of the world.
And no–it would certainly be disruptive to Saudi Arabia if their oil production was interrupted, but the idea that all Muslims globally would starve to death is ridiculous. Many nations, including Iran, incidentally, do not buy Saudi oil at all.
Not sure if you really believe this stuff and are simply mistaken, or if you are trying to paint civilized Israel as responsible for wiping out billions of people.
Besides, it has now been five hours since your comment and of course Israel has neither nuked Iran nor invaded Saudi Arabia, despite your claim that they intended to do so “in the next few hours”.
Shyam Mehta says
Dear Gravenimage
Please let me respond to your several points.
1. I was wrong about timing. Agreed.
2. ‘Why would Israel nuke Iran?’ Because Iran is building a nuke weapon to nuke out Israel.
3. ‘want to conquer Saudi Arabia’. Saudi has oil.
4. ‘have to go through Jordan to attack Saudi Arabia’. Not if they nuke out Saudi.
5. ‘they would refuse to trade with the US’. I never said Israel would stop trade with USA. Ridiculous. I said Muslims would ensure oil would not get to USA.
6. ‘largest oil reserves on earth’ re USA. So what? You cannot fill a gas tank with oil reserves.
7. ‘does not produce shale oil’. I said exact opposite. But shale oil production depends on diesel which Muslims will not let USA have.
8. ‘not the only nation we import oil from’. Oil imports USA:Canada51%, Mexico8%, Saudi Arabia5%, Colombia2%. Muslims would ensure no Canadian oil got to USA.
9. ‘mass hunger in the United States’. Little oil in USA would lead to massive difficulty Americans getting to work, virtually full standstill in food transportation.
Mass hunger is guaranteed.
10. I think in fact that if Israel attacks Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Muslims in the Middle East would be a touch annoyed and would launch war against Israel. This would lead Israel having to nuke them out, Israel cannot defend itself against all Mid East all at once.
11. My precise statement was ‘Muslim countries depend on food imports which will not happen and Muslims die in Mid E.’ I stand by that.
12. Obviously there will be news blackouts etc. The place to watch for developments in real time is https://market24hclock.com/Commodities/Oil
13. At present WTI Crude Oil is stable at 108. With no people in the USA, nor Mid E, oil prices will plummet. Let us see whether I am right, agreed timing wise I was wrong.
gravenimage says
Shyam Mehta wrote:
Dear Gravenimage
Please let me respond to your several points.
…………………………………….
Thanks for your reply, Shyam.
More:
1. I was wrong about timing. Agreed.
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Thanks.
More:
2. ‘Why would Israel nuke Iran?’ Because Iran is building a nuke weapon to nuke out Israel.
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Israel did bomb the unfinished Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981–but this was narrowly targeted; they did *not* nuke Iraq.
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3. ‘want to conquer Saudi Arabia’. Saudi has oil.
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Saudi Arabia had oil before modern Israel existed–in 74 years Israel has never aggressively targeted that nation. Why would she start now?
And if Israel just wanted to target some other nation that had oil, surely they would consider Syria, with whom they actually share a border, and which has sometimes been aggressive towards Israel.
But this is a canard in any case–Israel has *never* aggressively targeted her neighbors–she has only acted in defense, and that would never involve conquering a nation and stealing their oil.
Israel buys refined oil from India, the United States, Singapore, Switzerland, and Russia.
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4. ‘have to go through Jordan to attack Saudi Arabia’. Not if they nuke out Saudi.
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So now you’re saying that Israel intends to nuke not just Iran, but Saudi Arabia as well? This is completely nuts.
Then, if they wanted to conquer Saudi Arabia and steal their oil, they would still have to go through Jordan. Nuking another country does not magically erase the existence of countries in between–unless you are now suggesting that Israel is also planning on nuking Jordan?
And if Israel were nuking surrounding nations, do you *really* think that Pakistan would not nuke Israel? And if Israel was the aggressor, nuking two or three other nations, even previous supporters would probably not protest that much.
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5. ‘they would refuse to trade with the US’. I never said Israel would stop trade with USA. Ridiculous. I said Muslims would ensure oil would not get to USA.
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If the US has her own oil, access to oil from neighboring Canada and Mexico, and (presumably) access to oil from Israel-occupied Saudi Arabia, I think she’d be set. What other Muslim countries would the US have to buy oil from?
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6. ‘largest oil reserves on earth’ re USA. So what? You cannot fill a gas tank with oil reserves.
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We also import petroleum from Canada, Mexico, and Colombia, as well as refining our own.
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7. ‘does not produce shale oil’. I said exact opposite. But shale oil production depends on diesel which Muslims will not let USA have.
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The US does indeed do its own petroleum refining, including diesel. So do China, Russia, India and Japan. The idea that only Muslim nations do this is mistaken.
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8. ‘not the only nation we import oil from’. Oil imports USA:Canada51%, Mexico8%, Saudi Arabia5%, Colombia2%. Muslims would ensure no Canadian oil got to USA.
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If you look at a map, you will see that Canada is right next to the United States–there are no Muslim nations in between. The same is true of Mexico.
How would Muslim nations stop this? They wouldn’t be able to.
And why would they want to? They aren’t doing this now.
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9. ‘mass hunger in the United States’. Little oil in USA would lead to massive difficulty Americans getting to work, virtually full standstill in food transportation.
Mass hunger is guaranteed.
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As I have already noted, we have oil here and in neighboring countries. The idea that if Saudi Arabia was conquered that the US would not have any oil makes no sense at all.
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10. I think in fact that if Israel attacks Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Muslims in the Middle East would be a touch annoyed and would launch war against Israel. This would lead Israel having to nuke them out, Israel cannot defend itself against all Mid East all at once.
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There is *absolutely* no indication that Israel plans to nuke Iran and Saudi Arabia, so it is not even worth arguing this scenario where she nukes the entire Middle East. What calumny.
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11. My precise statement was ‘Muslim countries depend on food imports which will not happen and Muslims die in Mid E.’ I stand by that.
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Even if Israel were to invade Saudi Arabia–which is completely ludicrous–how would this stop all food imports to the Middle East?
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12. Obviously there will be news blackouts etc. The place to watch for developments in real time is https://market24hclock.com/Commodities/Oil
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This site is *not* claiming that Israel is poised to invade and conquer Saudi Arabia. This is ridiculous.
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13. At present WTI Crude Oil is stable at 108. With no people in the USA, nor Mid E, oil prices will plummet. Let us see whether I am right, agreed timing wise I was wrong.
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Wait–you are now saying that there will be no people in the US and the Middle East? Is Israel nuking them all? We are now deep into unhinged science fiction here.
Shyam Mehta says
Well, we have discussed a little about what is likely in the USA and Middle East. Oil is at 108.50 so no indication yet of whether I am right or wrong.
But it is also interesting to consider likely developments in Europe, and for me as a Hindu recently moved to India from England what is likely in India.
As everyone knows, Putin is bogged down and basically losing in Ukraine. His objective is to be a ‘great’ leader, demonstrate that Russia is great, that the military power of Russia is great and that he is recovering lost Russian territory (eg Ukraine). With antiquated 2nd world war technology and socialist command structure etc. it was always likely that he would struggle in Ukraine.
He is not a man who wants to lose and all he needs to do is
1. launch nuclear attack against Ukraine
2. Claim that the UK and French did it
3. Mourn the loss of 100 Russian soldiers and 100 (remaining) Russian tanks
4. launch nuclear war against UK and Europe in retaliation
5. hide in his palace with 1000 servants and $10,000 bn and live happily ever after.
6. maybe even expand into Germany and other countries if he so wishes.
7. obviously he needs to wait a while until the West has completed supplying the main hardware to Ukraine so that this can also be destroyed along with the associated advisory personnel.
8. My guess is that most hardware will have been put in end July so Putin will launch nuclear strikes end July.
It should be mentioned that nuclear weapons nowadays are a bit powerful. Also that foolishly the Brits (like me) and Frogs have put in anti-ballistic missile systems which they are stupidly likely to use. So, Putin will not be able to launch say just 1 warhead against London but (100) in order to destroy London (and surrounding large area). No problem you might think, but even though the (99) warheads do not detonate, each interaction releases radiation which after a while will impact India where I live. So, it is potentially a bit of an issue for me.
gravenimage says
Shyam Mehta wrote:
Well, we have discussed a little about what is likely in the USA and Middle East. Oil is at 108.50 so no indication yet of whether I am right or wrong.
………………………………….
The United States is a net food exporting nation. The US is both the largest food producer and exporter in the world. So even if we were suddenly cut off from importing any food, there is little we would have to do without. OK, goodbye to that morning cup of coffee. Sure, if the US were suddenly on her own, this would be a logistical nightmare and would no doubt lead to shortages in some places, but that in itself is not going to cause famine and wipe out the population.
Then, I note you don’t say how the Muslim world would be able to prevent the US from getting petroleum refined abroad (set aside that fact that we refine a lot of petroleum here ourselves). The US has one of the largest and arguably the most efficient navy in the world. The largest navy in the Muslim world is Iran’s which according to yourself has just been nuked and can be counted out. So that leaves Egypt and Indonesia in the top ten largest navies, and only remaining Muslim countries–both thousands of miles from the United States–to completely blockade all 95,471 miles of the US coastline–and to do so with fewer than 600 ships. And–as I noted–even this would not prevent our receiving petroleum from Canada and Mexico overland.
And why Egypt would decide to send their navy to blockade the United States when Israel, right on their border, has (supposedly) just nuked, invaded, and conquered Saudi Arabia makes little sense.
Why would the Muslim world target the US in any case? The US, while historically having supported Israel, would *not* support Israel nuking and taking over Saudi Arabia.
You know who else would not support this? The Israeli people. Israel is a democracy with a free press, and there would be protests in the streets. And if Israel did not do this under a “hard-liner” like Netanyahu, why do you think they would invade and mass slaughter their neighbors and steal their oil under Yair Lapid, who often appeases Islam and believes in the “two state solution”? Or are you positing some sort of coup there? Unlikely in a democratic nation like Israel, certainly.
Then, the world noticed when Russia massed troops on Ukraine’s border for months. But Israel is not massing troops on Jordan’s border, so even if they nuked Saudi Arabia, they would be in no position to rush in and conquer what was left of the country.
So this seems to be calumny against Israel–and pretty implausible calumny, as well.
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But it is also interesting to consider likely developments in Europe, and for me as a Hindu recently moved to India from England what is likely in India.
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I rather wondered what you thought was happening in Europe–and Africa, the rest of Asia, and Australia–while the Middle East and the US were suffering a famine that would wipe out the entire population there. I would ask the same about Canada, Mexico, and the rest of Latin America.
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As everyone knows, Putin is bogged down and basically losing in Ukraine. His objective is to be a ‘great’ leader, demonstrate that Russia is great, that the military power of Russia is great and that he is recovering lost Russian territory (eg Ukraine). With antiquated 2nd world war technology and socialist command structure etc. it was always likely that he would struggle in Ukraine…
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Let’s see–why would the UK and France, both of which have been helping Ukraine, especially the UK–nuke Ukraine? Then, it would be obvious to everyone if the nukes came from the east rather than the west.
Of course, the appalling Putin *has* been claiming that Ukraine is slaughtering her own people, so this is not completely inconceivable. Few outside Russia itself believe this claptrap, though, and not even all there.
There are about 150,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now, not 100–so unless Russia withdrew most of their troops the Russian death toll would be much higher than 100. But it is true that Putin has cared little for the safety of Russia troops, and certainly doesn’t care about Ukrainians, Russian-speaking or otherwise..
If Russia nuked the UK and Europe there would be little for Putin to rule once he emerged from his bunker. The West would almost certainly respond, even if Russia was falsely claiming that they had nuked Ukraine.
The idea that Putin would be more efficient at surviving any ensuing nuclear holocaust than the entire West, even if he launched the conflagration, is a bit questionable, though.
Now, Putin *is* pretty unhinged, and he has been directly threatening the West with nukes. Israel is *not* actually a violent, aggressive dictatorship.
But overall you seem rather obsessed by the specter of nuclear holocaust and the wiping out of billions of people. This is a dangerous world, but this is perhaps not only not healthy, but also not particularly realistic.
Bu the way, it is now over 24 hours after you said that Israel would be nuking other nations and setting off a chain of mass genocide that you said would happen in mere hours. Ain’t happened yet.
Westman says
Sounds like a good plot for a novel since it is so illogical and the underpinning ideas must be vividly intriguing.
Shyam Mehta says
Dear gravenimage
Your insults this time and last time are noted but I will not respond in kind.
All your points are you setting up straw men or using gratuitous insults to deflect attention from reasoned argument.
Obviously it is not worth dealing with all these straw men and insults.
I will for the sake of brevity just deal with 13, your last absurdity: “no people in the US and the Middle East? Is Israel nuking them all? We are now deep into unhinged science fiction here.”
I quote what I said: “Little oil in USA would lead to massive difficulty Americans getting to work, virtually full standstill in food transportation.
Mass hunger is guaranteed.”. Complete idiocy in my opinion for you to ask me whether Israel is nuking out the USA.
Rather than trying to win arguments, I believe it is better to use reason and logic to assess likelihoods.
About timing, where I have of course admitted that I am wrong, my new assessment is that events will unfold in a day or so. It is not possible using reason to say, for example, ‘Israel will launch strike against Iran at 15.00 GMT today’, it depends on many factors such as decision maker availability…
I am human and fully admit that my analyses may have flaws, and if you find any I would be pleased to hear from you.
Good wishes to you nonetheless
Shyam
gravenimage says
I’m afraid that that the claim that there will be no people left in the United States and the Middle East because Israel is supposedly poised to nuke Iran and nuke and invade and conquer Saudi Arabia is neither reasonable or logical. In fact, such claims are completely baseless.
And I listed about a dozen flaws in this reasoning. If you do not choose to address them that is not my fault.
Shyam Mehta says
Dear gravenimage
Well I appreciate the fact that you did not use insults this time. Instead you use again the straw man tactic:
You say I say:”no people left in the United States and the Middle East because Israel is supposedly poised to nuke Iran”
Re USA I actually said “Little oil in USA would lead to massive difficulty Americans getting to work, virtually full standstill in food transportation.
Mass hunger is guaranteed.”
My actual statement is completely different from what you allege. I give reasoned arguments you to quote what you say use “claims (which) are completely baseless.”
About the other 11 straw men or insults you have used, I suggest we deal with one thing carefully at a time.
Good wishes
Shyam
Shyam Mehta says
So, next about India.
Obviously after July Russia is history since without oil revenue its people will die of starvation etc and Putin is hardly likely to withdraw the appropriate cash out of his swissy accounts.
China is on its way out anyways because of socialism, but without American etc exports it will die in a few weeks.
Pakistan same, without external support eg from Americans.
India.
1. Muslims around the world will be upset at loss of Middle East and kill off all Jews around the world outside Israel.
2. Even though there are virtually no Jews in India they will riot, kill, rape etc in India. No problem for them in those parts of India that are held by the socialists who need the Muslim vote. But in the rest of India law and order will be enforced and both Muslims and Hindus will live happily in peace. (but see below).
3. Even though all is well in India and Muslims are well treated, Muslims around the world will kick up a fuss and will allow no trade to and fro India.
4. India has only small oil supply and so oil price will rise a notch. Ordinary people will not be able to afford to use cars, lorries, ‘rickshaws’ and food supply chain will break completely.
5. Police, criminals, military with guns will win initially but soon die off.
6. Only a few fit people can survive in more remote non city/town areas without processed food, just milk, nuts etc.
7. My guess is that the population will settle at 100,000 or so, including me.
gravenimage says
Shyam Mehta wrote:
Dear gravenimage
Well I appreciate the fact that you did not use insults this time. Instead you use again the straw man tactic:
You say I say:”no people left in the United States and the Middle East because Israel is supposedly poised to nuke Iran”
Re USA I actually said “Little oil in USA would lead to massive difficulty Americans getting to work, virtually full standstill in food transportation.
Mass hunger is guaranteed.”
………………………………………………….
Actually, in #13 above you say, “With no people in the USA, nor Mid E, oil prices will plummet” . So you did indeed claim that there would be no one surviving in the United States.
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My actual statement is completely different from what you allege. I give reasoned arguments you to quote what you say use “claims (which) are completely baseless.”
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There is, as I have noted several times on this thread, *no* indications that civilized Israel is poised to nuke and conquer Saudi Arabia. The only “reason” you have given for her doing so is that Saudi Arabia has oil. But that nation has had oil for all of modern Israel’s existence–74 years–and she has never done so, and no one in leadership, or anyone else I have ever heard of, has ever threatened any such thing.
So, yes–this *is* baseless.
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About the other 11 straw men or insults you have used, I suggest we deal with one thing carefully at a time.
Good wishes
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What “other straw men” have I used? I note you cannot point out even one. No surprise…
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So, next about India.
Obviously after July Russia is history since without oil revenue its people will die of starvation etc and Putin is hardly likely to withdraw the appropriate cash out of his swissy accounts.
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There is no doubt that Russia is going to suffer for the ugly actions of Putin–this is already happening. But the claim that Russians, in the greatest wheat producing nation in the world, are all going to die of starvation makes no sense.
You seem to be rather obsessed with nations being wiped out by starvation, even though the world is producing more food than ever before. Very disturbing…
More catastrophic dystopian nightmare stuff–not sure I’m in the mood to wade through all of it right now.
I will say, though, that the idea that the idea that Muslims and Hindus live happily in peace in any part of India is mistaken. There are places where due to a high population of Hindus and other non-Muslims and good law enforcement that Muslims are less of a threat, but actually all pious Muslims are taught the subjugation of Infidels. This is actually a core part of Islamic teaching, and does not go away.
But Muslims make up about 14% of the population there–a disturbing figure, no doubt, but not large enough to stop all trade with India.
Besides, I thought that Muslims were supposedly going to be busy with a complete blockade of the United States?
It is odd that you are obsessed with this. Apart from BDS, Muslims have seldom been focused on trying to stop trade with Infidel nations. There are other, far more common forms of Jihad.
Then, the claim that India will go from almost 1.4 billion to just about 100,000 is very strange–but of course this will include yourself.
If you enjoy these kinds of fantasies, I might suggest something more along the lines of The Walking Dead or War of the Worlds…
By the way, it’s now been over 24 hours since you claimed that Israel was setting this apocalypse in motion in just a few hours–hasn’t happened yet…
Shyam Mehta says
About straw men, you say “What other “straw men” have I used?”. So I take it that you admit to using one straw man, in relation to point 13 that I carefully pointed out.
Once you clearly admit to having used this straw man, I am happy to point out and discuss the numerous others that you have used, one by one is best for logical debate.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
You know, joking aside, I am an expert on markets. I wrote a paper called ‘Market Efficiency’ with 2 friends of mine, confirming what that brilliant American researcher Eugene Fama found in 1970. The oil, and other markets, move in price only in relation to news emergence.
So the price hovers at present around $99. When the current news blackout is broken, the price will adjust virtually immediately, back up (if I am wrong) or down massively (if I am right).
Let us see whether Israel wants to be wiped out, or more accurately has already decided not to be.
gravenimage says
About straw men, you say “What other “straw men” have I used?”. So I take it that you admit to using one straw man, in relation to point 13 that I carefully pointed out.
Once you clearly admit to having used this straw man, I am happy to point out and discuss the numerous others that you have used, one by one is best for logical debate.
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This is ludicrous–I was quoting Shyam Mehta, not agreeing with him. And I proved that he did indeed say that the population of the US would be wiped out, citing his own words.
And there is *noting* logical about this poster’s comments here. On other threads his is saying that gay people should be raped and enslaved, that child rape victims in Britain deserve it because they must have been rapists in a past life, and he is threatening posters here with violence.
Ugly and irrational stuff.
gravenimage says
Agreed, Westman.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
Actually, the oil market is what is known as a ‘fair game’. Just in round numbers it has declined $10 and I expect another $30. So, if one does the maths, given my assumption which I have roughly checked out that there has been no substantive other news on the market, it means that 25% of oil market participants by $ size believe me and 75% do not. If these percentages change and there is no other news then the oil price adjusts appropriately. So, for example, if 50% of participants in the market believed me, the price would be about $90, with a $20 upswing in prospect if I am wrong, and a $20 downswing if I am right: a fair game.
gravenimage says
Actually, the claim that 25% of those investing in the oil market believe that Israel is poised to nuke and conquer Saudi Arabia is absurd.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
gravenimage. More strawmen of yours. I quoted you precisely: “What other “straw men” have I used?”. It is completely obvious to anyone other than an idiot like you that you use strawmen in argumentation and further you have admitted it. You do not say what you find ‘ugly and irrational’. Is that yourself?
gravenimage says
No, I never said I used straw man arguments. This is quite false.
Shyam Mehta says
Easy to write rubbish. Easy to say ‘illogical’ and not say why.
gravenimage says
Plenty of instances have been pointed out at this point.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
gravenimage, this is what the Bible says about you: “Exodus 20:4-5 says, “Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image, or any likeness of any thing that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth: Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them.”
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
gravenimage, you assert “the claim that 25% of those investing in the oil market believe that Israel is poised to nuke and conquer Saudi Arabia is absurd.”. Easy to make stupid comments as you do, but why do you make such? Why do you think that 25% or so of oil market participants by $size do not believe me? What is your analysis (joke).
gravenimage says
Firstly, Shyam Mehta does not appear to understand what a user name is, nor how they work. Sad but unsurprising. No, my username is not a call for anyone to worship my nom de plume, nor, obviously, has anyone ever taken it in that way.
Then, I cannot find a *single* reference on the internet save here from this poster that Israel is poised to nuke, invade, and conquer Saudi Arabia. So the claim that a quarter of investors in oil believe this to be the case is obviously absurd.
If Shyam Mehta could back up this baseless claim about Israel he would have already done so.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
Well, I was wrong about timing re oil price
Possibly wrong about $70
Actually, to tell the truth I do not have any oil net position. I could not care less about its price.
But hopefully I stopped gravenimage by the simple method of telling people his name and most of address.
Silly me, I should have thought of this strategy earlier
I was so so upset by some of his false allegations, if I had told earlier less aggro but also less fun.
Or maybe he will resume responding (for a short while)?
gravenimage says
You are *not allowed* to dox people here, which is what Shyam Mehta tried to do. He is actually *very* bad at this–I am not a man living in North Carolina, but a woman living in California, as I have mentioned here many times.
Then, the belief that if you don’t like people disagreeing with you that you threaten them is simply appalling.
Then, the idea that he can shut me up with threats is ludicrous. Most long term posters here have been threatened by Jihadists before–and no, this does not silence us.
Infidel says
Price of oil now can only be increased if any of the Gulf countries cuts production, for whatever reason. Iran is now offline, since Russian oil has completely replaced it for both China and India. The Russian oil that was going to Europe has been redirected to India: recently, they did an experiment of shipping something from St Petersburg to Astrakhan across the Caspian through Iran and from Chabahar to Mumbai. So that trade route is being established. India currently gets whatever Russian oil it gets trans Pacific and Indian oceans – from Vladivostok to Chennai/Vizag. Also, some days back, Russia passed Iraq as India’s leading supplier of oil
As for US, all that can be turned back on once each of Biden’s EO’s get reversed by whoever succeeds him – Trump or DeSantis or anyone else (presumably GOP). Once US is back online, oil prices should come down to where it was during Trump, and w/ that, the supply and cost of everything would improve. We’d be back to a sane economy again
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
https://market24hclock.com/Commodities/Oil
Yes headed straight up as you say possibly. Off $7.61 so far though.
Let us see whether it hits $4, instead of $103
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
One thing for sure it could go up or it could go down. I reckon $70 shortly. But then it ummm could go up or could go down. Anyone who wants to bet with me needs to contact me
Shyam Mehta says
I believe that there is a nuclear strike imminent next few hours against Iran by Israel, and invasion of Jordan and takeover of Saudi Arabia. Muslims will be enraged and net result cessation of oil trade to West, USA depends also on shale oil which however depends on diesel so USA is at a standstill soon: no gas for people to travel to work, food supplies completely disrupted: mass hunger and all hell breaks loose. Muslim countries depend on food imports which will not happen and Muslims die in Mid E.
Similar situation in many countries.
My analysis of what happens in Russia, China and India available if anyone interested.
gravenimage says
See my reply above.
Shyam Mehta says
Interesting or not I am not at all sure as I no longer follow the oil market. But WTI crude has declined from $122 or so early June when I first started publicising my views on these likely developments in the crude oil market to currently $107.46. Probably a coincidence. Wished I had some cash to trade it.
Shyam Mehta says
I am an honest person. In all my career in the City of London I was correctly noted for honesty. I am not like Elon Musk who bought crypto then encouraged his followers to buy after the price had risen and then cashed out etc. But, I came across some hard times and lost all my money. If anyone believes my oil story, I am happy to help them in exchange for a % share of the profits. Obviously we would trade options not cash and at WTI at 107.36 now we would make an absolute fortune. You can easily find my email on the internet.
gravenimage says
Posting ads for companies here is generally considered spam, I’m afraid.
gravenimage says
Iran: Regime Fires IRGC Intel Chief, Arrests Senior General on Charges of Spying for Israel
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This seems unlikely–I think this is more about pious Muslims so often accusing those they dislike for any reason as being allies of the Jews.
Shyam Mehta says
I agree with you, gravenimage. We are talking about dedicated jihadis who have an agenda and a clear objective and obey orders (else they are crucified!)
john smith says
Well I’m to here that, at least you can agree on something.
john smith says
Sorry meant to say “well I’m GLAD to here that.”
gravenimage says
Agree with you on this one point, Shyam.
Shyam Mehta, M.A. (Cantab) says
So many strawmen in your rantings it is incredible. Not only Ayn Rand but even in the American constitution may it burned is free speech accepted.
Just because you are scared ‘s…’ of Muslims and want to hide under pseudonym does not mean that everyone is.
So, I think we are agreed on what I said about Rushdie.
I agree that rape is illegal in many countries, of course not in Rotherham UK.
Agree that murder is far worse than idiotic.
You say “Appeasement *does not work*. Claiming that it does is completely false.”. Can you back up this idiotic claim? Of course not.
You say “The claim that the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Japan is *a lie*”. I did not say ‘nuclear’ I said USA dropped atomic bombs on Japan after the war had ended. Another straw man.
So much rubbish you write in the rest of your rant that I will not deal with it.
But you say: “saying anything critical of Islam is “bad” as this poster would have it”. Exact opposite of what I have said. I say Islam and Mohammad and Quran are evil and I live in Dehradun.
Where does coward live?
gravenimage says
Yet more from the appalling Shyam Mehta:
So many strawmen in your rantings it is incredible. Not only Ayn Rand but even in the American constitution may it burned is free speech accepted.
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Ayn Rand condemned threats and violence. This is a key point of her philosophy, that physical violence is used *only* in cases of defense against violence, and that it is never to be initiated against others.
And about the only speech *not* protected by the American Constitution is threats and incitement to violence:
The First Amendment exempts true threats to “protect[] individuals from the fear of violence, from the disruption that fear engenders, and from the possibility that the threatened violence will occur.” R.A.V., 505 U.S. at 388.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1459/198236/20211029150021046_20-1459%20United%20States%20v%20Justin%20Eugene%20Taylor%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf
Clearly this poster understands nothing about either Ayn Rand or the American Constitution.
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Just because you are scared ‘s…’ of Muslims and want to hide under pseudonym does not mean that everyone is.
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This poster has now tried to dox me several times, which is *not* allowed here. He is also very bad at it–the person he cited and their location do not refer to me. But he is happy to endanger this person, as well. Good thing these vicious posts were removed.
And many here use pseudonyms–including contributors to Jihad Watch.
Posters here can comment under their own names if they deem it safe to do so, but they are certainly not required to do so.
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So, I think we are agreed on what I said about Rushdie.
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As I noted, Rushdie was in hiding for many years, and one of his editors and translators were murdered by Jihadists. Cody’s Books in Berkeley, California was firebombed. Shyam Mehta may consider this to be fine, but civilized people *do not*.
And my husband to be and I went shopping at Cody’s the day after the bombing to show our support. I currently live in neighboring Oakland, *not* in North Carolina as Shyam Mehta for some reason appears to believe.
Threatening to murder people for criticizing Islam is something Anti-Jihadists here *oppose*.
Yet more:
I agree that rape is illegal in many countries, of course not in Rotherham UK.
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Yes, rape is illegal there. The problem is that these laws are not being enforced.
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Agree that murder is far worse than idiotic.
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Yet this poster has cheered on genocide just today, so I’m not taking what he has said here very seriously.
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You say “Appeasement *does not work*. Claiming that it does is completely false.”. Can you back up this idiotic claim? Of course not.
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Neville Chamberlain infamously tried to appease Hitler by throwing Czechoslovakia under the bus. This did not stop Nazi aggression–is Shyam Mehta claiming that it did, and that WWII never happened? Try again…
Many try to appease Muslims, and this has not led to an end of Jihad. Appeasement of criminals leads to more crime. There are, of course, many more examples.
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You say “The claim that the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Japan is *a lie*”. I did not say ‘nuclear’ I said USA dropped atomic bombs on Japan after the war had ended. Another straw man.
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Atomic bombs are a type of nuclear bomb. And i never said that the US did not drop nuclear bombs on Japan; I said they did not do so *after* WWII, as Shyam Mehta initially claimed.
“Atom or atomic bombs are nuclear weapons.”
https://www.lanl.gov/museum/discover/_docs/atomic-vs-nuclear-weapons.pdf
Los Alamos Laboratory knows their stuff.
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So much rubbish you write in the rest of your rant that I will not deal with it.
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Actually, this poster has not dealt rationally with any of my points.
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But you say: “saying anything critical of Islam is “bad” as this poster would have it”. Exact opposite of what I have said. I say Islam and Mohammad and Quran are evil and I live in Dehradun.
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If this poster *really* believed this it is unlikely that he would cheer on those threatening to murder anyone who said anything critical about Islam.
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Where does (sic) coward live?
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How does opposing Jihad terror make me a coward? And I have said many times that I live in Oakland, California.
But the idea that one has to reveal one’s address to people calling for the killing of all my countrymen is utterly grotesque.