US Defense Secretary Austin: ‘Israel Will Define the Phases of the Campaign for Itself’

The situation remains fluid throughout Gaza; a few weeks ago some parts of the north seemed to have been completely subdued by the IDF, but then Hamas combatants reappeared out of tunnels, taking by surprise, and killing, IDF soldiers. This led to a renewal of fierce fighting by the IDF, including airstrikes, in the north. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin just met with Israeli Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant: “Dec. 18: US defense chief tells Israel to plan for ‘transitioning to next phase’ of Gaza war,” Times of Israel, December 18, 2023:

“Israel will define the phases of the campaign for itself,” Austin says. When shifting between phases, the difficult thing is making sure you have “everything accounted for,” he notes, and “that requires detailed planning.”

That’s the most important statement by Austin: “Israel will define the phases of the campaign for itself.” The Americans can offer advice, based on their own recent experiences with urban warfare, but Austin recognizes that Israel is determined to decide “for itself” when, and where, in Gaza, a new, more focused phase in the fighting will be undertaken. There is no hint in this meeting that Washington intends to impose on Israel its own views on transitioning to “a new phase.”

Gallant stresses that “by the end of the war, as long as it takes,” Israel must get its hostages back and destroy Hamas’s military and governance capabilities….

Just to be sure, Gallant wants to remind the Americans that while Israel naturally would like its campaign to be short — keeping 300,000 reservists away from their jobs is wreaking havoc with Israel’s economy — it will not act according to some predetermined timetable. It will take the time it takes to get all the hostages back and to destroy Hamas as a military force. It won’t happen, as some Bidenites — but not Lloyd Austin— have suggested, by the end of January. Neither he, nor Gallant, predicted by what month both objectives will have been achieved, but Israeli sources have been talking about “several more months.” The Israelis have no intention of ending their campaign against Hamas any earlier than they deem necessary, in order to comply with the pressing requests from the UN, the E.U., or — if it comes to that — Washington.

Already the IDF has killed more than half of the Hamas battalion commanders, and several of its most senior leaders. But Hamas’ supreme leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large, as does his brother Muhammad. Hamas’ senior military leader in Gaza, Mohammad Deif, has also managed to remain in hiding. The IDF will not be satisfied until all the senior military leaders of Hamas have been killed, and approximately 20,000 of its combatants who at this point are still alive, are either captured, or preferably, killed by the IDF. No one can predict when that will happen. Two weeks ago, for example, the IDF was convinced that it had Yahya Sinwar bottled up in a house that they had surrounded, but when they entered the house, he was nowhere to be found, and it is still not clear that he was ever there.

The IDF will not provide, or accept, a timetable for its campaign in Gaza. Nor will it allow itself to be rushed, even by its friends in Washington. It will meet its own goals “on the ground” before moving on to the next, reduced phase in the fight.

It’s a relief to have Lloyd Austin recognize that decisions about the pace, scope, and ferocity of the IDF’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza will be decided only by Israel, that the Americans are keenly aware that the task of fighting urban warfare against an enemy that deliberately hides among civilians and uses them as human shields is very difficult, and that Israel deserves credit for the measures it routinely takes to minimize civilian casualties, which includes warning those in buildings about to be targeted to move away; this is accomplished by messaging, telephoning, leafletting, and the “knock-on-the-roof” technique.

Already the Israeli government has started to talk about lessening the number of airstrikes, which likely will lead to a reduction in civilian deaths, but as yet no firm decision has been made. It should depend on how well the troops on the ground can perform without such air support. Clearly, if the number of IDF casualties — killed and wounded — remains steady after the airstrikes have been significantly decreased, the IDF will be encouraged to continue with that “transition” downward. And the reverse is also true: if the number of casualties rises, the IDF will at once reverse course, and renew its frequent use of airstrikes. But what will not happen is any American attempt at a diktat to Israel on military matters. Joe Biden knows Benjamin Netanyahu well enough to know that that will only get the Israeli Prime Minister’s back up. And in an election year, that’s not something Biden wants to do.