By late January, it is believed that the IDF will start to move to a less intense “Stage 3” of its war in Gaza, with fewer soldiers, fewer airstrikes, and a slower pace to its offensive on the ground. More on the reasons for this likely shift can be found here: “Israel-Hamas war: Is Israel’s shift in Gaza war due to global pressure? – analysis,” by Yonah Jeremy Bob, Jerusalem Post, December 31, 2023:
All signs are that Israel will shift from the “main war” (Stage 2) to a longer, lower-intensity conflict in Gaza (Stage 3) in the next two to four weeks….
There are two main reasons this is happening: 1) world pressure and, most importantly, American pressure, and 2) pressure from reservists and their families to be able to return to regular life….
The Post has learned that the IDF is also very concerned about giving the reserves breathing room in a much larger way than it has done to date.
But that is only half of the story.
The other half of the story is pressure from Israel’s EU allies, Sunni allies, and its most critical ally in Washington….
The only outside pressure that Israel truly worries about now is that from Washington. It would be nice to retain the support of the EU, but not essential. Washington has the power and the willingness to prevent the adoption of Security Council resolutions deemed by Jerusalem inimical to the Jewish state’s interests, as it did in forcing a rewording of a recent resolution so that it would not call for a ceasefire, but only for an increase in delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza (the wording was so anodyne that the Americans were willing to abstain, rather than veto it).
It is only the United States that has the power to supply or withhold weapons that Israel needs to conduct its war against Hamas, including constant resupplies of ammunition, and Joint Direction Action Munitions (JDAMs), as well as armored vehicles, armaments, personal protective equipment, medical supplies, and more.
So far, there are no signs that the administration has contemplated any slowdown in that supply of weapons; the $14.5 billion in military aid for Israel is now being delayed not in order to put pressure on Israel to yield to Washington’s wishes; the military aid for both Israel, and Ukraine has been held up because of congressional squabbling over how to handle border security.
America is never happy when a mistaken IDF airstrike kills a significant number of civilians. But to some extent, the Biden administration has swallowed these incidents as long as the main war was going on so they could say to the Israeli government that they were given plenty of time to invade Gaza in a big way.
The rough compromise struck between Israel and the US was that instead of finishing the main, heavier-on-airstrikes and tanks war by December, the IDF could have until mid to late January….
The IDF thus bought time — another six to four weeks — to carry on its campaign at full throttle, before pulling back, as it apparently has promised Washington it will, to “Stage 3” of the Gaza war, a slowdown that, over several months, will allow 200,000 Reservists, out of 360,000 called up, to return home and to re-insert themselves into the Israeli economy, which has suffered from their absence.
If it becomes clearer that Israel’s main war has ended and the perception is that it has no real deadline or set game plan for killing Hamas’s leaders without also losing large numbers of hostages in the crossfire, will Hamas – paradoxically currently at its lowest point – breathe in new life to resist for that much longer?
It would be terrible were Hamas to be saved by the bell, just as it has collapsed in the north and is being pummeled in southern and central Gaza. I don’t think the IDF will simply release hundreds of thousands reservists within a month or two, but will pull them out over a period of several months or more. The Americans should be satisfied with that timetable. Already, on the last day of December, the IDF announced that it was pulling five combat brigades out of Gaza. That can be taken as a harbinger of what’s to come, and should win Jerusalem some points in Washington.
But if the IDF sees Hamas regaining its will to fight because it misinterprets the pullback of reservists as signaling Israeli exhaustion, will it be willing to bring back intensive airstrikes and risk re-upsetting the US and other allies, or if the primary goal of Stage 3 is to keep American support, will the military simply have to deal with a newly “pumped up” Hamas?
Many of the answers to these questions are not yet clear, because Israel and the IDF do not know how they want the current war and postwar to end with Hamas.
Meanwhile, the Israeli economy has been suffering as a result of 360,000 reservists having been taken from their jobs for what will end up being a minimum of four months.
Israel has spent a great deal on deploying more than 220,000 reservists into battle on average over the past three months and subsidizing their salaries.
According to the Washington Post, many of these reservists are high-tech workers in cyber, agriculture, finance, navigation, artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals and climate solutions. Israel’s tech sector relies heavily on foreign investment. That foreign investment has been diminishing. Investors are scared by the Gaza war, and uncertainty about when it will end, or whether it will expand to a major war on the northern front against Hezbollah. And how many key high-tech employees will be killed or wounded? Those foreign investors, too, will be greatly relieved if more of the reservists are pulled from the battlefield and returned to their computers, offices, research laboratories, and factories.
The New Year will start with a pulldown of five combat brigades, which may mean anywhere from 10,000 to 15,000 men. I wonder if the IDF had many of Israel’s high-tech workers in these brigades, which is why they will be the first ones to be disbanded. I assume that about half of the 200,000 reservists in combat units (out of a total of 360,000 reservists called up) will over the first three or four months of 2024 be steadily returned to civilian life. That is a reasonable pace — 25,000 a month — and as long as Israel is seen to be steadily reducing the number of its troops in Gaza and the intensity of its war, Washington should be satisfied, and willing to give Israel the time it needs, many more months than if it had continued at its original pace, which will also allow the Israeli economy to benefit from having those reservists back at their jobs, building the economy that, ultimately, is what supports the Jewish state’s military might.
Walter Sieruk says
The way to defeat that murderous jihad terror entity ,,Hamas , is by a use of a very strong force of the power of military might. For the sad and tragic reality is that this is the only language that the jihadist will understand, because they will not and cannot respond to reason and logic.
Therefore it’s necessary to hit Hamas hard, hit it long and keep on hitting it until it can’t raise up again.
For it’s been wisely said the “Half measures in war is folly and madness.”
Walter Sieruk says
Those brutal vicious murderous jihadists of Hamas can’t be reasoned with .They cannot and will not respond to the logic of reason. The only language that they are able to understand is that of being on the receiving end of a very strong might power of military might.
As Thomas Jefferson had, very wisely, written, “With every barbarous people…force is law.”
Mike says
Good quote. Also, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” (Theodore Roosevelt.)
Walter Sieruk says
Those brutal vicious murderous jihadists of Hamas can’t be reasoned with .They cannot and will not respond to the logic of reason. The only language that they are able to understand is that of being on the receiving end of a very strong might power of military might.
As Thomas Jefferson had, very wisely, written, “With every barbarous people…force is law.”
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Maybe it’s a good idea to keep up a low intensity war until January next year, & resume it after January 21 2025, when Trump is back in power
zeca says
We live in a world at war and with large displacements of refugees. Due to the conflicts in Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan, millions of people left their countries, immigrated or even decided to return.
But a war with Israel has to be different. No Arab can leave Gaza because he has to continue “working” as a human shield and dying despite Israel trying to avoid civilian deaths. In itself, this care from Israel slows down the pace of actions on the battlefield and the terrorists are the ones who win.
Everyone knows that humanitarian aid goes first to Hamas, keeping them fed and fueling their cars and rockets.
So the human shields have to stay and the food and fuel have to get to Hamas. USA, EU and UN press for any conflict between Israel and any terrorist entity to end in a draw.
Hypocrisy at its best.
terry says
No doubt! The Globalist Elites of the West now empowered world-wide, and getting their percentages of black market proceeds from the Islamist drug lords, are finding their illicit criminal activities being greatly reduced, and therefore less profits for the big guys and gals : 10% is after all, ten-percent! But not to worry, the Golden Boys and Girls running our world have ensured their feudal partners, the Marxist, the Islamist, and Narc nations, that the flows of criminals and crimes for the destruction of the West would continue, as well as the flow of all the black market goods! Not to worry for hundreds of Epstein-like handlers are hard at work throughout the realms of their fiefdoms! Lucifer will be well served and hell on earth forged as planned!