Hezbollah, the terror group made up of Lebanese Shi’a, is a far more formidable fighting force than is Hamas. It has a vast armory of 160,000 rockets and missiles, many of them precision-guided, supplied by Iran, as compared to fewer than 10,000 much cruder rockets now possessed by Hamas after five months of war. Hamas had 30,000 troops on October 6, before the Gaza war began, and now has about 15,000 fighters still alive, with many of them having been wounded. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has at least 100,000 well-trained and well-armed troops, thanks to the backing, in weapons and money, that it receives from its indispensable ally, Iran. And it is Hezbollah’s constant bombing of the Galilee in northern Israel that has forced more than 96,000 Israelis in the north to be displaced, having had to move out of their homes near the northern border with Lebanon for their own safety, in light of constant Hezbollah bombardments. Most generals in the IDF, and the Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, believe that war with Hezbollah is inevitable; the only question is whether it will start while the Gaza War is still on or will Israel, when that war with Hezbollah comes, be able to concentrate all its efforts on its enemy to the north. Even now, Israelis worried about Hezbollah damaging Israel’s electricity grid have been buying generators in anticipation of what will come.
More on Israel’s war with Hezbollah that becomes more likely every day can be found here:
The few enquiring minds still left occasionally ask me what the most underreported stories of the current Israel-Hamas conflict are. I tend to reply that there are two.
The first is the issue of Israeli refugees. They are not called that inside Israel, where the authorities prefer to refer to them as ‘internally displaced people’. But while the world rightly concerns itself with the internally displaced people inside Gaza, the lack of notice paid to this other story is strange.
There are 117,000 displaced Israelis in the south, where they have moved away from the border with Gaza, where Hamas still manages to send rockets hurtling toward Sderot and Ashdod and Ashkelon, while 96,000 have moved away from the northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah regularly engages in tit-tor-tat exchanges of fire with the IDF. But these internally displaced Israelis are rarely mentioned in the foreign press which focuses solely on the “more than one million displaced civilians in Gaza.”
What we have seen in Gaza is merely an opening skirmish. The real showdown will be with Tehran….
The residents of the north are not so lucky. While Hamas may have been significantly degraded in Gaza (which you can also tell from the fact that what used to be daily sirens in Tel Aviv are now a monthly affair), Hezbollah’s arsenal of perhaps 160,000 rockets remains sitting on the Lebanon border. They are of a higher quality than Hamas’s rockets, longer range and far more deadly. If Hamas was Iran’s Ford Cortina, Hezbollah is its Lamborghini. And there is the question of when Iran wants to use them. It might use them any day, or it might be waiting until the regime in Tehran is on the brink of its long-sought-after nuclear bomb and can then use Hezbollah as a deterrent against any Israeli or American strike.
Which brings me to my second unreported fact. And I hope you’ve had your breakfast before digesting this.
I was on the Lebanon border 18 years ago, during the 2006 war with Israel. I well remember the shelling and the firing. Seeing the activity there in recent months (where it is much more heated than either side wants to admit) has persuaded me of something. The war in the Middle East has not yet begun. Or at least what we have seen in Gaza is merely an opening skirmish.
No country could cope with significant swaths of its population being permanently displaced from their homes. But what the world outside the region seems not to realise is that Gaza is a sideshow. The real showdown in the region will be with Tehran.
The war with Hezbollah will be many times more destructive and dangerous for Israel than the current war in Gaza, given Hezbollah’s huge arsenal of precision-guided missiles and the size of its fighting force, which as of now is about ten times what Hamas can count on, after its losses during the past five months of fighting.
John Forbes says
I certainly hope that this prediction is not right BUT all indications point that way.
Hammas with LEFTIST help in the West is winning the propaganda war which is very bad news! Trudeau and Biden certainly are not on the Israeli side! You never know who TRUDEAU supports and it is not Israel!
JimJFox says
So (don’t quote the Bible) what can Israel do? Conventional weapons won’t suffice, unless USA declares war on Iran along with Israel.
Failing that the Samson Option, Israel nuking Iran unilaterally must eventuate. This is stated Israeli policy if/when annihilation is imminent.
The u.s.government must be informed/reminded to pressurize it to act to avoid another holocaust.
SJ says
Trudeau just reinstated UNRWA payments even though they had already paid them in Jan for Feb, so that tells you who he is and his Islamist party is with.
Frank Anderson says
The preparations being made by Iran and its proxies are not for bluff or show. They are all being made to be used to continue the 1400 yearlong war of conquest. Islam seeks war. Those who pretend negotiations can change that single-minded commitment are liars or fools who will lead those blind enough to follow them to their death or slavery.
Jack Reynolds says
ALL IS WELL.
.
I am quite certain that in the early Nineties UKRAINE did not return all of the 10,000 Nukes on its soil to RUSSIA.
.
And it is well known that ISRAEL has Nuclear Weapons.
.
Terrorists only declare JIHADS when they CANNOT win a conventional war.
.
.
somehistory says
This is no surprise. mozlums everywhere want to see Israel destroyed (thus that awful chant). Israel has also used a lot of its weaponry, ammo, etc. and human resources fighting hamas. iran and hezbollah are aware of this fact. Many people want to deny Israel any more help of that kind. Or any kind.
The Book of Ezekiel, chapters 38-39, describe in great detail how the ‘nations to the North’ view Israel and their coming invasion to ‘gain much spoil’ and destroy the people.
In the time of this happening, this coming attack, Israel is said to be “without a wall.”
No protection from the invasion. Due to the fact that so many nations are mozlum-ruined, and the way the regime in the U.S. is behaving, it is certainly apparent that Israel has no figurative ‘wall.’
JimJFox says
More bible twaddle. Stop it
somehistory says
More idiocy from you. I don’t have to stop it. You have authority over only yourself. If you want something stopped, you stop.
Nathaniel Winterson says
Interesting question: would the United States, which declines to go to the defense of Ukraine, do that for its close ally Israel if war with Hezbollah came? It’s easy to think of reasons why they would not. I’d like to hear a few why they might. What is at stake is much more critical than their reasons for invading Afghanistan or Iraq were.
If Israel’s efforts today, and the combined efforts of Israel and the United States in a future war with Hezbollah, could rid the world of both Hamas and Hezbollah, it would be morning in the Middle East, although of course only a fool would suppose it would mean the end of the jihad against Israel. The struggle would continue, but with two up for the good guys.
Stive says
Been thinking why years of delay to stop Iran earlier when it would have been much easier. Iran is a big part of ez 38 war so won’t be knocked out before it. God is in control of the timing and let’s the wicked do their stuff to have all happen at the right time. The ez 38 war is yet future but could even be this year. It just might be the battle of Armageddon, another name for same event in another book of the bible
When you realise the wonderful event that ends ez 38 war the delayed timing makes sense, as either return of Jesus is imminent or the war will delay a bit longer.
For those that read ez 38 very carefully thinking on each word carefully, one should find it’s an attack on both Israel and America at same time. Only America is land of no bars and gates and much cattle.
Both Israel and America gathered out of the nation’s
Why most pastors can’t see, I’ll leave that for another day.
JimJFox says
Ezekiel v38 makes reference to Iran? Who’d a’thunk?
Biblical talk is utter rubbish, has Jesus done anything in 2000 years?
If you can’take sensible comments please STFU!
somehistory says
If you knew anything, you would know that it ****does**** reference iran.
If you don’t like a comment, no one is forcing you to read it.
Jesus has done more than you will ever know…unless you wise up.
And Stive has as much right as anyone to write what he wishes.
Wellington says
It should not be overlooked that Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have been greatly strengthened because Joe Biden and his handlers renewed the idiotic and despicable nuclear deal with Iran that the pathetic Obama initiated and that President Trump did away with.
The decrepit Biden also did other stupid things like lifting many sanctions on Iran imposed by Trump and taking the Houthis off the terror watch list that existed under Trump (yes, recently the fools directing Biden, America’s first puppet President, have placed the Houthis back on the terror watch list but there was no reason to take them off in the first place). Thus the continuing debacle which is the Biden Presidency ensured that Iran would have far more financial resources to fund Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah. Put another way, Biden has blood on his hands here just as he does with the death of Laken Riley in Georgia by an illegal immigrant, with the execrable exodus from Afghanistan, with the invasion of Ukraine by Putin because Biden oozed nothing but weakness to Putin (N.B., Putin invaded nothing when Trump was President), never mind his further weaponization of the Justice Department in his effort to “get Trump” and many of Trump’s supporters (e.g., Peter Navarro) as well as demonizing upwards of half of Americans as he did in the single most despicable speech ever given by an American President, that of September 1st, 2022—and in Philadelphia and before Independence Hall no less where American freedom was born and which Biden and his “aides” are doing their best to destroy.
I can forgive those who voted for Biden in 2020 if they fully repent of their error. I will never forgive any who will vote for Biden for a second time in 2024. All such people I look upon as traitors to America. I make no exceptions here.
SC says
Shoot down the first missiles then vaporize where they came from. These groups need to cease to exist with no remnants.
bill53 says
I hope the IDF has a better strategy against Hezbollah. One strategy might be a preemptive ALL-IN strike, including bombing and invasion within 72 hours. If I were the IDF start the war on your terms not the enemy. This is not a war of 8 million Jewish people against 7 million Smarian-Judean & Gazan arabs. It is 2 billion moozlums against 8 million Jewish folks.
if
Westman says
Hezbollah could actually trigger the first use of strategic nuclear weapons if the survival of Israel becomes imminent. It should keep in mind that Israel will not perish without taking Lebanon or any other attacking Islamic nation with it.
No nation, without nuclear weapons, should under any delusion that it can wipe out Israel without perishing itself.
Mick says
I doubt that MAD deters today’s Schiklgrubers and Strangeloves. Not all of them live in the Middle East.
Dave Bender says
Hugh and readers: I’m a 4-decade American immigrant to Israel, a veteran reporter, and live near the border with Lebanon.
I’m also an admin over at the 12.5K member “Life on the Border” FB page: there, we northern (Hizbullahstan-adjacent) and southern (Gaza Perimeter) residents and evacuees regularly share apolitical personal, moving Zoom interviews, hardcore breaking news updates in near-real-time, and genuine granular details from our collective lives and experiences you will never see in the US media.
Please feel free to visit and join us: https://www.facebook.com/groups/LifeontheBorder
marc says
Thanks for sharing
James Lincoln says
Strongly seconded.
OLD GUY says
Hate to say this there is NO peaceful solution to ISLAM and the rest of mankind. If Islam is successful in its endeavor to rule the world there will be an enormous amount of blood shed. Islam lives and flourishes on greed and violence and total control.
Just look at the Billions of dollars that they have received in foreign aid from around the world. Most of it has been spent on lavish life styles for their leaders and to buy weapons to use against the vary people who have been helping them. Most foreign aid never reaches the needy people in these countries but the propaganda of hating us does.
JimJFox says
Undeniably true, Frank. “None is so hated as he who speaks the truth” especially by those in power who cannot tolerate inconvenient facts.
What American government doesn’t seem to realise is that if Israel falls, jihadis will arise in their millions, Iran will produce nukes & Pakistan’s nukes will be added to the Shia stockpile. WW3 would then be inevitable.
Forget Hezbollah & other proxies, it’s Iran that must be defeated.