The latest, and most dramatic, indication of Iran’s impoverishment is discussed here: “Iranian rial collapses, ‘loses 30% of value’ – reports,” by Ohad Merlin, Jerusalem Post, April
On a similar background, a massive viral campaign with thousands of posts called to expel Afghan refugees and residents from the country, arguing that they steal the jobs of Iranians, live off the country’s budgets, allowances and shaky economy, and perpetrate crimes against Iranians, with some users likening them to parasites and leeches….
The Afghans who have fled the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan are being scapegoated by Iranians. Their sins of omission (not working, and thus living on the dole) and commission (working, so taking jobs away from Iranians) help the regime to deflect popular anger onto a largely helpless group of foreigners, who are mostly Sunni Muslims. But the Afghans are not the real problem. The rial has been declining for more than four decades, long before the Afghan refugees arrived in Iran.
Since the regime has no answers to the economic degringolade it has caused, it tries to focus attention on the permanent foreign enemy — Israel, the Little Satan. It whips up war sentiment, making threats, showing videos of missiles being fired at the Jewish state, and putting online photos the various missiles Iran has in its armory, all to impress the populace with Iran’s military might. But Iran doesn’t dare to follow through; it knows what destruction Israel can inflict in response to a major attack by Iran.
Not everyone is swayed by the online swagger of the regime, threatening revenge for the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s so-called “consulate” in Damascus that killed several high-ranking generals, including Mohamed Reza Zahedi, the head of the IRGC-Al Quds in Syria and Lebanon. Almost two weeks have passed, and there is still no sign of that terrible revenge. Perhaps that is because the Iranians have seen what the IDF is capable of in Gaza, and want to make sure that they carefully choose a site to attack that will not trigger too devastating a response from Israel, that in turn might force the Iranian regime to launch an even stronger attack, so as not to lose face, and that could end up triggering a full-scale war with Israel, a war that Iran is not prepared for and does not want. For the Iranian regime, it’s a harrowing decision, fit for Goldilocks: what attack will be seen as not too small by fellow Muslims, nor too big by Israel, but just right, prompting the same in response?
Meanwhile, Tehran cannot possibly admit to the real reasons for the economic collapse. There are four:
First, the regime prefers to rely on Muslim fanatics, rather than gifted technocrats, to run the economy.
Second, the regime is riddled with corruption. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has a net worth of tens of billions of dollars. No one seems to know exactly how much, with estimates as high as $95 billion. Other former regime leaders have also made out like bandits, with hundreds of millions of dollars in net worth. This is not going to stop.
Third, the regime continues to spend billions of dollars on weapons and financial aid to five main proxies and allies, including the Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, the Kataeb Hezbollah militia in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, and most important of all, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranians in past protests, in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023, have shouted “Death to Palestine” and “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, may my life be sacrificed for Iran” and “Leave Palestine, Think About Us Instead.” In October, at a soccer match at Azadi Stadium, when a minute of silence for the people of Gaza was declared at the beginning of a Friday match between Esteghlal and Havadar football teams, there was instead mass booing in the stands. Earlier In the same month, Persepolis fans were heard chanting “take that Palestinian flag and shove it up your a**.”
The regime is not listening. The destruction of Israel is central to its existence. It isn’t about to limit the amounts of money it spends to arm and fund its proxies and allies, and on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The rial will fall further still, the mass discontent at the country’s impoverishment will grow, and ultimately, the regime won’t be able to contain the widespread rage, just as the Shah was unable to contain the people’s rage in 1978. An Israeli attack to which the regime dare not respond in kind, and will thus be exposed as weak, might be just the spark to set off that popular revolt that so many Iranians long for.
Bull Herman says
So Shia and Muslim Bro’hood can’t sit around a fire singing kumbaya.
And, yes, the greed virus which they accused the Shah of having, they’ve contracted even worse.
Any bets on what the Iranian people will do to the Islamists come revolution day? Will it be hanging, firing squad, or torture to death as the Islamists liked doing to their victims?
So long as it happens.
Wellington says
If only Shahs were still in charge of Iran rather than mullahs. Yes, it would still leave much to be desired but it would nonetheless be a far better situation.
Rather like the Republican Party, with all its defects, would still be better for America and its allies rather than the Democrats were it in charge of all four branches of the government (yes, four and not three—i.e., the executive branch, the legislative branch, the judicial branch, all de jure, and the de facto branch not authorized by the Constitution, i.e., the national security state branch and which is now riddled with non-conservatives and Leftist aplenty).
tim gallagher says
An economy run by a bunch of knuckle dragging, know nothing mullahs is bound to wind up in a mess. Add to that the overbreeding, inbred and brainless Muslim population and any economy is bound to end up on the rocks. Any Muslim country that is not a total economic mess is only because of the sheer good luck of oil happening to be there. Otherwise everyone of them would be a basket case in terms of the economy and prosperity. Without a doubt, islam would fuck up any economy along with every other aspect of human life. It would be great to see these mullahs lose power and get their deserved justice.
Mick says
Four, the separatism of Azeris, Balochis, Kurds and Khuzestanis (aka Ahwazis). If oil-rich, Arab Khuzestan joins with Arab Iraq, (Saddam’s dream), Iran is rubble.
There are over 3m Afghan refugees in Iran plus 600k tourists. The number is shooting up as Sunni Pakistan deports Afghans by the 00,000s.
Iran are tied to Sunni Qatar by the Pars gas field. No common interest with Gaza. Iran’s alliance with Hamas will end when the mullahs are suspended from Palfinger cranes..
Mick says
IMO. The reason for Iran’s support for Hamas: Israel are a key ally of the US, who deposed Mossadegh, imposed the Shah, then enabled Iraq to kill 1m? Iranians in the 80s.
Tradional US, and new Israeli support for Sunni (Abraham) states has provoked Shia paranoia, maybe rightly.
Happy to be corrected..
James Lincoln says
Gee, I thought that I had a decent vocabulary.
But I had to look up the word “degringolade”…
somehistory says
James, I didn’t know the meaning and didn’t look it up. But just reading the word, I thought of it being *getting rid of White people*…de gringo catching my mind’s eye.
As for vocabularies….my family and I like to play dictionary. It’s fun and we learn a lot of new words.
Christopher Watson says
Oddly enough I didn’t have any problem. You see my mother was French. Although I hadn’t heard the word in 50 years. I must admit I didn’t realise it was used in English. As a language teacher and translator for 35 years I love these words.