The latest Harris poll has just released its results, and Eric Zemmour, coming out of nowhere as a political figure, has pulled ahead of Marine Le Pen. The latest heartening news is here: “Zemmour seen breaking Macron-Le Pen duopoly in 2022 French election – poll,” Reuters, October 6, 2021:
The hard-right political talk-show star Eric Zemmour has gained more ground and would reach the second round runoff vote in France’s presidential election next April, a Harris Interactive opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
There is nothing that justifies calling Eric Zemmour, a classic old-fashioned free-market liberal, ”hard-right.” The epithet is affixed for one reason only: Zemmour is alarmed about the effect on France of the millions of Muslims now living in the country, whom he believes to be unassimilable and a danger to the French people and state. This puts one in mind of those who mislabeled the Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn, both a liberal and a libertine, as “far-right,” without the slightest evidence save his islamocriticism.
The poll is the first since Emmanuel Macron won the presidency in 2017 to upend the long-anticipated scenario of a repeat knockout contest between Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
A divisive figure who has made a career pushing the bounds of political correctness on subjects such as immigration and national identity, Zemmour has emerged in past months from the pack to become one of the most popular candidates.
Zemmour is maligned as a “divisive” figure because he dares to point out some home truths about Islam and Muslims. Muslims themselves, who divide the world uncompromisingly between Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb, who see themselves as the “best of peoples” and non-Muslims as “the most vile of created beings.” There is no more “divisive” figure in the history of the world than Muhammad.
The Harris Interactive poll showed Zemmour winning 17% (up 4 points on a late September “poll) of voter support, beating Le Pen on 15% and any one of the three challengers vying for the centre-right ticket.
Macron would best Zemmour 55%-45% in the second round, the poll showed. Macron beat Le Pen 66%-%34 in the run-off in 2017. The Harris Interactive poll showed Macron against Le Pen at 53%-47%, were she to get through this time.
Zemmour, 63, who holds convictions for inciting hatred, has not formally thrown his hat in the ring, but he is behaving every bit the challenger choosing his moment to act, describing himself as a “candidate in the debate”, quitting his prime-time chat-show spot to comply with electoral rules and publishing a book “France Has Not Yet Said Its Final Word”.
Zemmour’s “inciting hatred” amounts mostly to this: He declared on television that “French people with an immigrant background were profiled [in his book] because most traffickers are Blacks and Arabs… it is a fact.” Zemmour was supported by several personalities, including the founder of Reporters Without Borders and the Mayor of Béziers, Robert Ménard.
On March 23, 2010, Zemmour wrote to the the International League against Racism and Anti-Semitism (LICRA), explaining his views; he cited the book L’Islam dans les prisons by Farhad Khosrokhavar, which confirmed the figure of 70 or 80% of “Muslims in prison”; on receiving this letter, LICRA withdrew its legal proceedings against Zemmour.
Zemmour paints himself as a political outsider in tune with an alienated middle class and in his book draws parallels between himself and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Zemmour doesn’t “paint himself” as a “political outsider.” He is a “political outsider.” He has not come up through the ranks; he’s been a writer, journalist, analyst, polemicist and both a television host and guest; he has never run for elective office.
The poll showed Macron beating all main challengers in the second round, including Xavier Bertrand. Bertrand is running against Valerie Pecresse, head of the Ile de France region, and former European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier for the mainstream right ticket.
Zemmour now seems likely to defeat not only Le Pen, but also all the other possible rivals to Macron, including the center-right candidates Xavier Bertrand and Valérie Pécresse. In a Macron-Zemmour contest, Macron would at this point, according to the Harris poll, defeat Zemmour 55% to 45%. That means Zemmour needs to change the minds of just a little over 5% of the French electorate to win. Muslims now make up 8% of the French population, and about 5% of the electorate; presumably, almost all of the Muslims who bother to vote in France will vote for Macron. In other words, Zemmour could be kept from the Presidency – even if the majority of indigenous French supported him — by the Muslim vote alone. That’s a realization that should alarm non-Muslim voters, perhaps enough to scare them, despite the reluctance of some because of their distaste for his “conviction for incitement to racial hatred” (despite the fact that Muslims are not a “race” and that he has never preached or incited “hatred” of any group) into voting for Eric Zemmour. It may be the last time, given inexorable demographic changes, that the non-Muslim voters in France will be able to determine their own political destiny.
mortimer says
Hugh Fitzgerald correctly observes: “There is nothing that justifies calling Eric Zemmour, a classic old-fashioned free-market liberal, ”hard-right.”
So true!
Perhaps the French perceive Zemmour (an intellectual writer) as more in the French tradition of ‘académisme’ than LePen and therefore more reliable. It would be preferable for France if LePen could team up with Zemmour and unite France’s conservatives who are at least 50% of the population. If united, the conservatives could wipe the Leftards off the political map.
Unfortunately for LePen, she suffered from the lingering odor of her father who was perceived as a bigot. I hope the French conservatives don’t blow it again by dividing conservatives at the moment they need most to be united.
Doomer says
Jean-Marie Le Pen has already said he supports Zemmour,he is the founder of Marine Le Pen’s party.
Lots of Marine’s supporters will go for Zemmour.Her father is with Zemmour.
In 2017 Marine herself said on tv that is there someone better placed than she to save France,she would leave space for him. Will she do it,no. But it doesn’t matter, Zemmour with Jean-Marie le Pen’s help, will win.
Infidel says
Marine had a fall-out w/ her father years ago, b’cos while he was full blown xenophobic, she limited her opposition to muslims, which was far more sensible. Jean-Marie’s endorsement of Monsieur Zemmour otoh could be used against him, just like in the US, if David Duke endorsed anybody (like he did Ilhan Omar), that would be used against that candidate
James Lincoln says
Infidel,
For some strange reason, I had missed the news article about David Duke supporting Omar.
I guess Duke’s Jew hatred runs so deep that he can support someone who would likely want to see him dead – given the right circumstances…
https://gellerreport.com/2019/03/former-kkk-grand-wizard-david-duke-endorses-ilhan-omar-most-important-member-of-the-us-congress.html/
Giacomo Latta says
I assume xenophobic subsumes anti-Semitic. No candidate of the right needs Jean-Marie’s endorsement, nor should seek it.
Gili says
A quote from Marine Le Pen: “We can never repeat enough: – The free movement of people is immigration – The free movement of brains is emigration – The free movement of capital is speculation”
If you dislike genuinely free markets, you are left wing, not right wing. Marine Le Pen is a socialist. Her disdain for globalism does not make her right wing, it merely makes her a grass-roots socialist as opposed to an elitist socialist (who draws her support from former Socialist Party voters).
Zemmour is a grass-roots, free-market liberal who draws his support from former Republican Party voters. They have very little in common with each other.
gravenimage says
What they have in common is a realization of the terrible threat of Islam–this is more important than their views on economics. (and I say this as someone very much opposed in general to socialism).
Frank Anderson says
Is there anywhere, anytime in history where muslim invaders have “assimilated”?
mortimer says
Reply to FA: pollsters who study and track religious conversions have found that an equal number of people tend to convert between religions, so many Muslims have assimilated and converted to other faiths through the centuries, but ex-Muslims tend to be quiet about it due to the apostasy punishment of vigilante execution. There were large-scale conversions at the end of Muslim rule in Spain after 1492. Those Moorish ex-Muslims were called ‘conversos’ or the ‘New Christians’. Cervantes wrote about them.
Frank Anderson says
mortimer, that equal number of converts is probably so small as to be meaningless. The measure would be fulfilled if out of 100 muslims, 1 converted out, and 1 converted in. That leaves 99 still in, 1 new convert, more driven to submit, and one silent apostate in terror for his life. PLEASE, do not submit to Viktor Frankl’s “delusion of reprieve”. Muslim invaders invade to conquer, kill and loot.
rubiconcrest says
… and we know using the Reconquista as our guide the number of conversions did not solve the problem of the bulk of Muslims who never were going to live peace with the non-Muslims in Spain.
Lavéritétriomphera says
@Frank,
Bonsoir
“mortimer, that equal number of converts is probably so small as to be meaningless.”
However, there is no evidence for that: https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-are-people-losing-their-religion/a-56442163.
Amitiés
Westman says
40,000 Iranians were interviewed about their religious belief with the approval (and oversight) of the mullah-infested government and the majority said they are losing their faith?
It took a bit for the laughter to subside. Maybe the same group could do some interviews in North Korea…
gravenimage says
Mortimer, if they are apostates then by definition they are no longer Muslims.
James Lincoln says
gravenimage,
Do you have any statistics showing the percent of apostates who eventually return back to islam?
Infidel says
James
Given the difficulty in exiting islam and the effort it takes, I doubt that anybody who leaves islam ever returns to it. Whereas there have been cases of that in other religions
gravenimage says
James, I’ve tried to find information on this before, and always have come up empty.
My guess though is that since leaving Islam is so fraught and hazardous that those who become apostates are apt to be more committed than many who simply try out a new faith as a lifestyle choice. There may be some who return–or pretend to return–to Islam if directly threatened, though.
James Lincoln says
gravenimage and Infidel, thank you for your replies.
Pretty much what I had thought…
mortimer says
Since LePen is ahead in the polls, Zemmour should put his ego aside for the sake of a conservative victory and return to doing what he does so well as an outspoken social commentator. He could use his considerable influence to encourage people to vote for LePen and say things from the sidelines that a politician may not say in a campaign.
Moreover, it is seldom that outspoken writers and TV personalities can make a successful transition to politics. They are two very separate and different jobs and each requires lots of preparation and experience. LePen has the political experience, since she is a career politician who has known the political game from her youth as the daughter of a leading politician.
Zermmour is very controversial (not that LePen isn’t for some people), but controversy is the role of a writer/intellectual. Many people in France have been charged for criticizing Islam (including Brigitte Bardot and LePen as well). Zemmour is doing his job very well writing and commenting, so he should stick to it.
I hope Zemmour returns to his pulpit on TV, radio and print, and campaigns to elect Le Pen. She is superbly prepared to lead.
Infidel says
For once, I agree w/ you. If Zemmour runs, it’ll just split the anti-islamic vote. He should avoid that, and just let LePen run and prove what she’s capable of. It’ll be a horrible travesty for France if Macron wins by default just b’cos his opposition is divided. Although if I recall last time, there was a runoff b/w the top 2, so maybe it’s not all that bad
Right next door, Germany has just gone down again, w/ the AfD getting just 10% of the vote, down by 2+%. I fear that that country is lost: we should shut down Ramstein (leaving the Afghans there) and move our headquarters to Ft Trump, in Poland
LB says
Opposition splitting will only happen if the two candidates–Le Pen and Zemmour–run simultaneously.
If Zemmour does decide to run and Le Penn does not throw her support behind him, then she is controlled opposition. Given how they both hold very similar beliefs, as well as being both a younger and less popular candidate, there is absolutely NO reason she shouldn’t concede her spot in the elections. Besides, from my understanding, Zemmour is both a founder of Le Pen’s party as well as a good friend of her father’s; can you imagine the disrespect if she does not back down? That will make her glow harder than Chernobyl in 1986.
Conversely, if Zemmour decides NOT to run and instead throw his support behind Le Pen, she is sure to win. And with him advising her during presidency, France may just have a fighting chance yet. That is assuming, of course, that the French elections don’t get… “fortified”. It’s become somewhat of a trend in the supposed “free and democratic” West nowadays.
gravenimage says
Agreed, LB.
Hugh Fitzgerald says
The latest polls have Zemmour ahead of Le Pen. In a debate with Macron in the 2017 presidential race, Le Pen did poorly. Zemmour, who is both quick-witted and a quick learner, has been on dozens of shows with hostile interviewers, and never been bested. I urge you to take a look at some of those appearances on Youtube.
Infidel says
Yeah, but there is the possibility that these 2 will split the anti-islamic vote, and enable Macron to win by default. Not sure that France can afford that. Does a 3 way race end up in a 2 way runoff?
Gili says
That’s not how the French system works, you can’t split the vote. They have multiple rounds of voting, eliminating the least popular candidate in each round. The final round of voting only has 2 candidates (which will likely be Macron and Zemmour at this point).
gravenimage says
Good to hear, Gili–thanks.
Don McKellar says
Sounds like France is going to have a huge influx of “election experts” from the American Democrat party in the next little while.
Rarely says
Doesn’t matter. Elections don’t matter. Macron can always claim the election was stolen and, using the powers of the office, stage a coup and retain the presidency. It wouldn’t be the first time someone tried that.
john smith says
Le Pen and Zemmour are on the same page, both are running their campaigns based on the anti-islamic vote. I believe they should form a coalition, they would be a much more formidable opponent together.
Lets face it, neither of them are going to receive a muslim vote.
gravenimage says
+1
Yogi says
Good for French people He will clean up this mess !! ..
gravenimage says
France: Eric Zemmour Now Pulls Ahead of Marine Le Pen
……………..
Just seeing him and Le Pen in the lead in polls in France is heartening.
Kepha says
I see Eric Zemmour is descended from Algerian Jews. It reminded of something:
A Leftist American Jew I knew once dismissed Israel as having fallen to its “primitive” and “unenlightened” Mizrahi majority. Since 9/11, I have considered that those “primitive” and “unenlightened” people might know something about being Dhimmi under Islam, and we in the West would be foolish to ignore what they may have to say.