The latest anti-regime protests in Syria have been prompted by the disastrous economic situation. The immediate cause was the regime’s decision to end subsidies on gasoline, and to partially lift the price controls on fuel oil. Those decisions were the last straw for many Syrians, 90% of whom are impoverished. “Druze protests expose the Assad regime’s Achilles’ heel – opinion,” by Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post, September 2, 2023:
The dire economic situation in Syria is also due to the continued effects of Western sanctions. The United States and the European Union have remained firm that assistance for reconstruction and normalization with the regime can only take place in the context of the implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254, which calls for a process of political transition and elections to be held under UN supervision….
The Western powers are not about to provide financial aid to Damascus for reconstruction until the regime holds democratic elections under UN supervision, which Bashar Assad has not agreed to, because he knows what the certain outcome would be.
During the civil war, five million Syrians — almost all Sunni Arabs — fled the country. Assad doesn’t want to admit them back into the country; they are his mortal enemies, even more so now after they have seen the wholesale destruction his army has wrought on their cities and villages. But the Arab states insist that if they are to provide aid to Damascus, their fellow Sunnis must be allowed back to settle inside Syria. Furthermore, the captagon pills that are manufactured in Syria, and smuggled via Jordan into the Arab oil states of the Gulf, have wreaked havoc among the rich, idle, bored youth of those countries, and their governments want Syria to stop the trafficking. But the Assad family, its relatives, and its allies in the Iranian IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah, have profited mightily from the sale of captagon pills, and are still unwilling to stop the trade. So the rapprochement between Syria and the Arab states has so far been limited to a renewal of diplomatic ties that had been broken off, and Syrian readmission to the Arab League.
If Assad tries to suppress the Druze protesters waving their Druze flags, he might face an uprising by many of the 600,000 Druze in Syria, and they could receive help, including arms, not just from their 145,000 fellow Druze in Israel, but also arms from the IDF, transferred first to the 25,000 Druze on the Golan Heights, that has been a part of Israel since 1981, and then smuggled by them to fellow Druze inside Syria.
These protests, that challenge both the Syrian regime and the Iranians who prop up that regime, are a great headache for Damascus. But within the protests, it is those by the Druze that are the most worrisome. For the Druze in southern Syria can link up with Druze right next door in Israel, obtain arms from them, and if need be, find refuge inside Israel from Syrian army attacks.
Southwest Syria is precisely where the latest anti-regime protests have erupted. Israel could supply the Druze in Sweida Province, directly or through Israeli Druze, with arms and training, so that they might interrupt and even bring to an end captagon trafficking, thereby earning the gratitude of the rich Arab states of the Gulf, whose young people have been the main victims of captagon addiction. And another consequence would be the end of a major source of personal funding for Assad and his loyalists.
The Druze in Syria made a bargain with the Assad regime. In exchange for not joining the opposition, the community was left largely alone. Druze in Syria’s military were allowed to remain in Sweida during their service. But like almost everyone else in Syria outside of the Alawi loyalists (who made up 12% of the pre-war population), the Druze now live below the poverty line. And they hear stories, through their grapevine, about the Druze who are flourishing in Israel, who even serve — just like Israeli Jews — in the military, and have risen high both in the IDF (there are Druze generals), in politics, and In business. There are nearly 10,000 Druze in Israel who now. belong to the Druze Zionist movement. 94% of the Druze in Israel identify not as Arabs, but as “Israeli Druze.” The Druze serve in the most elite army unit, the Sayeret Matkal, and as pilots in the IAF. All this has made a deep impression on the Druze in Syria. The Druze in Israel are integrated into the larger society in a way that they have never been able to do in Syria, and the Syrian Druze now know it.
The Israeli government has announced that it will double the Jewish population on the Golan, to 50,000, by 2027. This has been interpreted by the Druze as a sure sign that Israel will never yield the territory that it formally annexed in 1981.
If the Syrian regime acts with its wonted ruthlessness against the Druze in Sweida Province, this may be the final act, together with the continued economic catastrophe that has pushed 90% of Syrians below the poverty line, that could cause a real uprising by the 600,000 Druze in Syria. It is not hard to imagine that the Druze in Syria will call for help from Druze in Israel. It’s likely that an all-Druze battalion of volunteers, consisting of IDF veterans, and well-armed with Israeli weapons, including drones, would arrive to help their fellow Druze inside Syria. Assad must be in a quandary: should he try to crush the Druze now and risk pushing them into the arms of Israeli Druze and of Israel itself, or instead leave them alone, and hope that their street protests will eventually die down? Questions, questions. It’s not easy being a ruthless dictator whom so many people, if given half a chance, would like to kill.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
Israel would be pretty stupid to support a Druze uprising in Syria. B’cos unlike the Alawites, there is no evidence that the Druze can completely control Syria: it would likely fragment into different fiefdoms controlled by ISIS, the Alawites, the Turks, the Kurds and so on. If you think that Assad is bad, a balkanized Syria would be way worse: Iran could easily get either the Alawites or some other party in Syria to give it a foothold against Israel
I’m not a fan of the Russians, but the arrangement that they’ve worked out b/w Turkey, Syria, Iraq & Iran is the best for stability in the region. They do need to bring Israel into this arrangement, however