Oddly, few Western writers on the South Caucasus have ever grasped Christian Armenia’s significance as Russia’s only ally and military outpost among the region’s three countries.
Simply put: Were Russia to lose Armenia, the U.S./NATO/EU and pan-Turkism would inevitably dominate the Caucasus/Caspian and, perhaps, beyond. Putin understands this.
Georgia and Azerbaijan are, after all, headed away from Russia.
Though always under Russian pressure, Georgia’s an unofficial NATO candidate with sizable Western investments. NATO countries and Israel have been modernizing its military. Tbilisi’s also the middleman for Baku’s gas/oil pipelines extending to Turkey and elsewhere.
Azerbaijan’s fossil fuel deposits, pipelines, and U.S./European commercial/economic ties are well-known.
Less talked about are the Aliyev autocracy’s pan-Turkic ideology; formal alliance with NATO’s Turkey; deployment of international terrorists; dependence on Israeli weapons/military prowess; and longtime backing by America’s Jewish lobby.
Elected ostensibly as a democratic reformist in 2018, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan grew friendlier with the West than had Yerevan’s previous leaders.
This enraged Putin. That’s problematic: Armenia’s dependent on its ally for gas, oil, the nuclear power plant, weapons, remittances from Armenians in Russia, and more. However, Pashinyan didn’t break with Moscow.
Nevertheless, Putin resolved to punish and humiliate Armenia to force it totally and irrevocably under Russian domination.
Punish and Humiliate
In 2020, Putin silently but indisputably greenlighted Azerbaijan, Turkey, international terrorists, and Israel to sledgehammer Christian Armenia and Armenian-populated Artsakh/Karabagh into submitting to Russia.
We know that near its borders, Russia is extremely NATO-and-terrorist-phobic.
And yet:
In Azerbaijan’s 44-day war in 2020 (Sept. 27-Nov. 9) against Artsakh’s Armenians, Turkey openly delivered American-supplied F-16s, Bayraktar drones containing NATO parts, additional weapons, generals, troops, and several thousand jihadist terrorists to Azerbaijan.
Tellingly, the Kremlin was unruffled.
Moreover, Tel Aviv — the West’s friend, not Moscow’s — overtly resupplied Baku with hi-tech weapons.
The Kremlin, again, voiced no particular alarm.
Post-war, however, Russia revealed that it had been in charge all along. During the fighting, for instance, it was Moscow — not Baku — that had offered Yerevan a “peace” deal (which Pashinyan declined).
Artsakh — gifted to Azerbaijan by Stalin but indigenously Armenian for millennia — lost the war, as did Armenia. Buffer zones around Artsakh gained by it in the early 1990s were also forfeited.
Putin’s fingerprints were, not surprisingly, all over the November 9, 2020 agreement among Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku.
In what remained of Armenian-populated Artsakh, the pact awarded Russia:
- An armed, 2000-troop “peacekeeping” mission plus guardianship over the only road — the Lachin corridor — between Artsakh and Armenia proper (Points 3/4/6).
- Military control over future routes through Armenia between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave (Point 9).
That Russia green-lighted a war against Armenia/Artsakh isn’t a total surprise.
Moscow has always sought to keep Yerevan apprehensive and dependent. The Kremlin has for decades permitted repeated Azerbaijani attacks on Armenia despite Yerevan’s defense pacts with Moscow and the Russian-led CSTO alliance.
None of this is intended to defend Prime Minister Pashinyan. He has failed and should resign.
And please ignore the nonsense that Russia, shaken by setbacks in Ukraine, couldn’t prevent the 2020 war. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine came much later: in February 2022.
Punishment Without End
Throughout 2021-2023, Azerbaijan invaded, occupied, and fortified over 80 sq. miles of Armenia’s internationally recognized southeast.
Hurling the Azeri attacks in Armenia’s face, the Kremlin sarcastically termed them mere “border demarcations.” The Azeris are still there.
Russia/CSTO had again willfully violated their defense treaties with Armenia.
Meanwhile, despite Russia’s 2020 pledge, its “peacekeepers” permitted incessant Azeri assaults on Artsakh from 2021 on.
Then, in December 2022, Azerbaijan sent military and other officials disguised as “eco-activists” to block the Lachin corridor.
The armed “peacekeepers” could have moved the Azeris off the road in five minutes. Instead, the Russians feigned helplessness as food and medical supplies to Artsakh were blocked. Meanwhile, the well-fed Russian soldiers offered to sell food to the starving Armenians at inflated prices.
Baku also cut off gas, electricity, and communications to Artsakh. Yet again, despite its signed agreement, Moscow said little and did nothing.
The blockade, declared former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, fit the UN definition of genocide: “Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction.”
Thus, “Christian” Russia and its half-Turkic Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu blatantly violated the November 9, 2020 accord, while Artsakh was attacked and starved.
On September 14, 2023, Acting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Yuri Kim testified that the Biden administration “will not countenance any effort — short-term or long-term — to ethnically cleanse Artsakh.”
Then came September 19’s genocidal cleansing.
Genocidal Cleansing
Azerbaijan launched a genocidal military assault on Artsakh. 120,000 Armenians fled their democracy of 30+ years lest they be murdered if they stayed. Some were, in fact, killed, tortured, and murdered.
Russian “peacekeepers” let it happen. No surprise.
Artsakh’s millennia-long nationhood — gone in a flash.
The White House clearly “countenanced” the cleansing, as did Europe and the UN. America often prioritizes authoritarian regimes over human rights and common decency.
The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention recently issued a Red Flag Alert “due to the alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks.”
The Geopolitical Future
Russia has certainly not finished punishing Armenia and Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Invasions by Azerbaijan and even Turkey are quite possible.
In that case, Russia would likely “save” Armenia, which would sign over its sovereignty to Moscow. Armenia might even become a Russian Union State, like Belarus.
Assuming near total Russian control of Armenia, the U.S./NATO/EU would find it very difficult to totally penetrate the Caucasus even if Armenia’s borders with Turkey/Azerbaijan eventually open.
Putin has been trying for years to entice Turkey and Azerbaijan into his web. The Turkic twins have played along, but aren’t fooled.
But as Russia rightly fears pan-Turkism, it would probably permit only limited penetration through Armenia by Ankara and Baku. Thus, a Russian-controlled Armenia would become a buffer, not a U.S./NATO/EU pathway. But nothing is certain.
To keep the West totally at bay, Russia could invade Georgia and control the pipelines originating from Azerbaijan.
Another danger to Russia would be an extraterritorial corridor (not just the existing roads) from Turkey through northwest Iran — occupied by masses of Azeri speakers — to Azerbaijan.
That’s one reason why Turkey, Azerbaijan, and probably the U.S. and Israel wish to dismember Iran, attach its northwest to Azerbaijan, and cut off Armenia’s access to Iran. Moscow and Tehran know this well.
Will Russia’s punishment of Armenia ultimately benefit the Kremlin?
Or will Russia receive its just desserts for the vile, unwarranted punishment of its ally?
David Boyajian’s primary foreign policy focus is the Caucasus. His work can be found at https://armeniapedia.org/wiki/David_Boyajian. Twitter: @Boyajian_Writer
somehistory says
There is a whole lot of evil in the world. If it could be measured in ground, it would be higher than the highest mountain, wider than the widest desert, and deadlier than the worst quicksand, on earth.
satan is busy and his children are fulfilling his desires. Yes, his “children,” as Jesus said when speaking to some of them, ‘you are from your father the devil and you wish to do the desires of your father.” And as the Apostle John wrote, “The children of God and the children of the devil, are evident by this fact…” John then goes on to explain the difference in the two.
The article above says that Israel has had a part in this evil. That is sickening. As much as that nation is attacked, they should have some empathy, or at the very least, sympathy, for the Christians who are being slaughtered and overtaken by mozlums.
SJ says
First of all, I do not believe quite a few things in this article. I’ve been following this Christian Armenian genocide for a long time. Yes, it’s a complicated conflict, this article is too biased about a number of things and countries too. As for Israel, there is much doubt that Israel would align itself with actors involved in a genocide of people, especially since this is the 3rd genocide by the same actor as the first -Turkey and then Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, the huge nation with all types of oil is greedily stealing the Armenians land AND starving them to death. Just too much to even note here, but the main thing everyone should know? This is yet another religious war against a non-Muslim country so they will no longer exist.
࿗Infidel࿘ says
I think that Russia’s support to the Turks will come back to bite it. While Putin boasts about being the successor to Tsars like Tsar Peter, Nikolai I & so on, this is one area where he is very different. When the Russians conquered Siberia and Central Asia, they ended Turkic domains, whether in Qashliq, Qoqon, Buqhara or Xeva. Putin, otoh, is strengthening them. For instance, if he was that worried about Russians in the “near abroad”, he would have tried to conquer the northern Steppes of Kazakhstan, which was mainly Russian, but which the Kazakh regimes have been trying to Kazakhify over the last 30 years. Unlike Ukraine, which had done nothing of the sort in Crimea or the Donbass
End result is that once this empire is made, Turkey & China could form a coalition against Moscow, which would be lethal, given that Russia simply doesn’t have the manpower to defend Siberia, especially given the misadventure in Ukraine. These 2 could just overrun all of Siberia & split it b/w them, & then Russia would no longer be a superpower
Another thing worth noting: while Turkey is on good terms w/ Iran, unlike Baku, which stupidly thinks it can gain Iran’s province w/ the same name Azerbaijan, if this Iran regime fell, Turkey is likely to do to Iran what it did to the Kurds outside Turkey. Historically, Iran was a part of various Turkic empires – Ghaznavid, Seljuq, Khwarezmid and Timurid. So if the regime fell, instead of non-Islamic democrats taking over, I can see Turkey trying to conquer it, and then make it a land bridge to Turkistan as well as get an outlet to the Arabian Sea
Unfortunately, few in the West see Turkey as the main threat, & are instead obsessed w/ Russia
GreekEmpress says
You nailed it.
And I always wondered why there was zero coverage of the eradication of Armenians from Artsakh.
Now I know—the White House clearly countenanced the cleansing—
somehistory says
Could it be that the “beast” in Revelation described as having the appearance of a lamb and the tongue of the dragon is the U.S.?
Lot of pretending and outright lying coming from this government.
SJ says
The current Biden administration and the U.S. State Department is comprised. Everything they do is anti-American and pro-Islamic. Remember Afghanistan pullout? Also, why did the U.S. State Department allow 100,000 Afghanis that WERE NOT allies into the U.S. and Biden even “Fast tracked” them. Meanwhile, our citizens and Afghan allies were left there, and why was this hidden from us? Does anyone know that we have been giving aid to the Afghan Taliban since the pullout! We also give aid to, get ready for it Qatar! Also aid to Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Mali, and any other Islamic country that hates us. We also give them money for Climate Change, money to help their LGBTQs ( I sincerely hope they’re not using it to find the tallest buildings to throw them off) but imagine that. There is so much more. Go to the U.S. State Department and subscribe to their emails. If you love your freedoms and the U.S., you may want to get on an antidepressant because it will make you sick and angry.. So, that is why Biden did nothing about the genocide. He’s compromised our entire nation.
SJ says
I agree to some of your points. I often ponder the “New Alliance” of Iran, Russia and China and North Korea, and wonder which day it will be that they start killing each other…and I laugh. The Islamic nations are already criticizing China about the Uyghurs., and the Russians have the highest statical rate of dislike for Islam! These Islamic nations also bicker and complain about tourists from Kuwait that travel to Turkey, and how this Kuwaiti tourist was treated. It was so petty and nonsensical it was shocking that it was even written about. They always seem to need a fight and if they don’t have an infidel to fight and blame – they attack each other. I’ve never seen anything like it!
Is it popcorn time yet?